Something unexpected needs to happen?

[bearexin]

Bitcoin can't repeat the halving cycle, are you aware that making it go from small levels to higher levels versus higher levels to even higher levels are totally different. If the price moves from 500 to 5k that is 10 times higher and I would understand that but that doesn't mean that it would go from 10k to 100k as well, those are very very different stuff, it is not the same. Just because it went certain amount higher doesn't mean that it could do the same thing.

However I agree that people should stop trading bitcoin only (well they can still trade) but also add that spending thing on top of the current situation, that way we could just buy and sell but also we could send and receive which it was created for and that would basically be great for bitcoin price as well.

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[Kelvinid]

Still difficult to accept we are about to explode above again.
I am a little bit afraid of another negative attack on Bitcoin, or any events that will affect Bitcoin, and it will cause another dumps.
What I noticed these days, a lot of panic sellers, even just a small negative news about Bitcoin, we can see some huge wick red candles.
What I am positive now is we are already above $10,000. We are already less than 50% before all-time-high again.
So if ever we will see an unexpected to happen, it's either a parabolic run again upto Bitcoin's all-time-high or a dump on below $10,000 again.

I keep thinking that thing also as mostly it happens in the past years. Dumps are still inevitable and sooner or later we'd likely it come for sure. Investors nowadays aren't like before, they are more watchful into the market and any changes will turn them into thinking negatively especially when drops started. It could be like that most of them are short-term holders, impatient people, and anytime they will sell their coins.

However, it seems that we are still in a good position, we are moving nearly at $12k, and might investors are taking their breath to hold their holdings that make the momentum keeps good.

[exstasie]

Bitcoin can't repeat the halving cycle, are you aware that making it go from small levels to higher levels versus higher levels to even higher levels are totally different. If the price moves from 500 to 5k that is 10 times higher and I would understand that but that doesn't mean that it would go from 10k to 100k as well, those are very very different stuff, it is not the same.

Why?

People tend to focus solely on the demand side, saying things like "it would require too much money to hold the price up" at six figure valuations. But price isn't determined solely by demand; supply also plays a crucial role.

What happens during bubbles is that supply dries up. The ask side completely disappears across all exchanges. So it takes very little money and volume to push prices exponentially higher. That's how bubbles are born.

Is that sustainable? Probably not, and that's why bubbles pop. But that doesn't mean we can't see six or even seven figure valuations first.

[carlisle1]

Something unexpected needs to happen for $Bitcoin's price to stop doing what it's been doing for most of the past decade: appreciating. Demand and adoption metrics remain favorable vs. the $crypto asset's unique attribute of fixed supply.

Mind to explain what kind of Unexpected thing to happen?because as far as i know Bitcoin is doing good for the past year now since the last quarter of 2019 ,market is experiencing good movement(of course not part the March this year when the market suddenly fall the lowest )
But this is not literally needed now,what we wanted to have is a investment from another group of people that can bring the market Going Bull again.

Most movements in Bitcoin are unexpected, fast and have to do with volatility, it is normal for it to happen that way because as it says in OP, adoption is increasing, according to an interesting article launched by Pompliano affirms that by 2029 the Bitcoin's capitalization will be greater than that of gold, and it may happen, bitcoin is increasingly named, in fact some already consider it a safe haven, especially in countries with high inflation.

yeah the capitalization must increase again,for Bitcoin dominance covering the market more than again.

https://coinmarketcap.com/

market is still in good shapre so better not worry more.

[bearexin]

--snip

Why?

People tend to focus solely on the demand side, saying things like "it would require too much money to hold the price up" at six figure valuations. But price isn't determined solely by demand; supply also plays a crucial role.

What happens during bubbles is that supply dries up. The ask side completely disappears across all exchanges. So it takes very little money and volume to push prices exponentially higher. That's how bubbles are born.

Is that sustainable? Probably not, and that's why bubbles pop. But that doesn't mean we can't see six or even seven figure valuations first.

The main reason why it can't happen is the fact that we are talking about people who got in from anywhere at around 10k to under NOT to sell until it is 100k. You are aware that people do tend to sell even when it reaches above 12k and you are asking or at least expecting them to not sell when it reaches 20k? Or maybe 30k? Or how about 50k? noo, you expect them to sell at 100k?

There is not enough money to buy it to make it 100k but there is also not enough people who will hold and not sell until it reaches 100k neither, people will sell it is a no doubt, there is no chance humanity can suddenly become such a collective movement thing, people care only about their own individual profit and if you give them 2x profit they will take it, not wait around for 10x

[YuginKadoya]

An unexpected like another breach of security on one of the well-known exchange site? Bitcoin is reacting to the supply and demand that people are establishing an I think that right now many are overwhelm over what kind of asset Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could be and for traders and investors they are in love with its volatileness, and I think this sudden burst in price was because of the residual of the halving or bull run can hit another ATH.

The interest are really bringing things to the right direction, many people are acknowledging this venue
as a good alternative for investment.
With how people reacts it adds up more money to circulates placing bitcoin to a much higher valuations
we can expect for more.
It's not limited as the most important factors are investors trust and how they will keep doing things that
will able to attract more people inside.

Yes it surely adds up that many people are now putting interest in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency because of that sudden burst on the price but right now that burst is becoming just a little bit of pull back right now, Maybe we need another push just like what OP is saying, but investors and hodlers was all just waiting for a sudden change in the price again,

As you have said the most important aspect needed here are the people that are attracted with cryptocurrency platform and with this sudden change you can really see that there are initial buyings happening.

[exstasie]

Why?

People tend to focus solely on the demand side, saying things like "it would require too much money to hold the price up" at six figure valuations. But price isn't determined solely by demand; supply also plays a crucial role.

What happens during bubbles is that supply dries up. The ask side completely disappears across all exchanges. So it takes very little money and volume to push prices exponentially higher. That's how bubbles are born.

Is that sustainable? Probably not, and that's why bubbles pop. But that doesn't mean we can't see six or even seven figure valuations first.

The main reason why it can't happen is the fact that we are talking about people who got in from anywhere at around 10k to under NOT to sell until it is 100k. You are aware that people do tend to sell even when it reaches above 12k and you are asking or at least expecting them to not sell when it reaches 20k? Or maybe 30k? Or how about 50k? noo, you expect them to sell at 100k?

You are ignoring two crucial market dynamics.

First, the distinction between strong hands and weak hands. Accumulation phases like 2015-2016 and likely 2019-2020 are defined by weak hands (people selling for a loss or small gain out of fear) selling to strong hands (those who intend to hold long term, no matter what). That's actually why accumulation phases form. Strong hands buy up all the supply in the range, and when there is no supply left, the price gets marked up.

Second, the distinction between fear and greed, which is a related concept. In the early goings of a new bull market, the market is usually quite fearful, still reeling from a previous bear market or range trading dynamic. That means traders are skeptical of any bull market and are likely to sell quickly instead of holding for long term gains. That's the type of sentiment we saw in late 2015 and early 2016, and it's why 2016 was a slow grind upwards rather than a parabolic run like 2017. In a bubble, that sentiment changes dramatically. Fear gives way to greed, and everyone becomes scared to sell because of FOMO.

That's the difference between 2015 and 2017. In 2015, everyone was fearful and wanted to sell. In 2017, everyone was greedy and refused to sell. And that's how we went ~130x from low to high.

What is 130x from (the 2018) low? It's in the $400,000s.

[gbrendeh]

We really need something unexpected to happen. The price has dragged at this region for so long and finding difficulty in breaking the 12-12.5k region.

[sana54210]

Honestly I always expected that what needs to happen is figuring out something much better than crypto itself. I am not talking about defi, I am not talking about altcoins, I am not talking about a brand new blockchain or a new way to use blockchain, I am talking about something brand new that is much better and has no connection to bitcoin at all.

Remember just 10-12 years ago there was no bitcoin at all, it didn't exist and one day satoshi did it (whoever he is) and in the end we have it now and there are thousands of copies of it that tries to be a better and bigger version that failed. If you want bitcoin to be not going higher, you could have something totally better and at that point we would all switch to that and leave bitcoin that could stop the increase.

[pooya87]

Honestly I always expected that what needs to happen is figuring out something much better than crypto itself. I am not talking about defi, I am not talking about altcoins, I am not talking about a brand new blockchain or a new way to use blockchain, I am talking about something brand new that is much better and has no connection to bitcoin at all.

Remember just 10-12 years ago there was no bitcoin at all, it didn't exist and one day satoshi did it (whoever he is) and in the end we have it now and there are thousands of copies of it that tries to be a better and bigger version that failed. If you want bitcoin to be not going higher, you could have something totally better and at that point we would all switch to that and leave bitcoin that could stop the increase.

i can see what you mean but it won't happen overnight. what you are talking about is a revolution in the blockchain technology and something like that would take a very long time to come to reality. and unfortunately so far we have not seen that many attempts in that direction. there were some good ideas in first couple of years but nowadays everything is copy pasting to maximize profitability.

keep in mind that bitcoin didn't happen overnight and Satoshi didn't really release bitcoin in one day. he was working on it for 3 years before he released it in 2009, and before that the idea was around for more than a decade (eg. hashcash which is a proof of work system was proposed in 1997).

for people to abandon bitcoin and move entirely to a new cryptocurrency that new one has to be significantly better while finding fantastic solutions to some issues that bitcoin struggles with, hence the need for a massive revolution in technology.
besides, bitcoin can also advance and change. it is not like the design is absolutely unchangeable. it is not significantly changed so far because there is nothing better to change to. which means even if a much better solution were found, bitcoin may be the one finding it and using it first!

[exstasie]

besides, bitcoin can also advance and change. it is not like the design is absolutely unchangeable. it is not significantly changed so far because there is nothing better to change to. which means even if a much better solution were found, bitcoin may be the one finding it and using it first!

I'd like to think that too. However, if I'm being honest, that's sort of at odds with Bitcoin's very slow and methodical development culture. It's also at odds with these words from Satoshi:

The nature of Bitcoin is such that once version 0.1 was released, the core design was set in stone for the rest of its lifetime.

Let's imagine proof-of-stake was actually solved, and reasonably secure. Do you think Bitcoin would switch to it? I don't.

The same goes for things like total supply and emission rate too. We don't know that a firmly limited supply is the optimal route in terms of long term mining security; it's experimental at this point. But either way, do I see Bitcoin hard forking to increase the 21 million cap? No.

[pooya87]

besides, bitcoin can also advance and change. it is not like the design is absolutely unchangeable. it is not significantly changed so far because there is nothing better to change to. which means even if a much better solution were found, bitcoin may be the one finding it and using it first!

I'd like to think that too. However, if I'm being honest, that's sort of at odds with Bitcoin's very slow and methodical development culture. It's also at odds with these words from Satoshi:

The nature of Bitcoin is such that once version 0.1 was released, the core design was set in stone for the rest of its lifetime.

Let's imagine proof-of-stake was actually solved, and reasonably secure. Do you think Bitcoin would switch to it? I don't.

The same goes for things like total supply and emission rate too. We don't know that a firmly limited supply is the optimal route in terms of long term mining security; it's experimental at this point. But either way, do I see Bitcoin hard forking to increase the 21 million cap? No.

why not? you see all the examples you mentioned or anything else that i can think of are changes that won't give any significant benefits or in almost all cases they decrease the security or add more weaknesses to bitcoin. for example PoS is significantly worse than PoW but if it were the other way around meaning if it were significantly better then i am certain that bitcoin would have changed already or risk being obsolete.

P.S. that Satoshi statement has not been true for many years since bitcoin has changed a lot of things. for example the script evaluation (which is a consensus critical matter) has changed with at least a dozen forks some involving scripts are BIP-16, 17, 34, 65, 112, 113 and 141.

[Harlot]

I do have to agree with you demand is something that will be increasing for Bitcoin as the supply will always be limited while the interest of owning Bitcoin is continuing to grow however one of the biggest factors that can affect this growth is something that a lot of predictions left out and that's including Bitcoin's S2F model by PlanB. I'm talking about laws and countries that don't want them for their citizens. This is one of the biggest factors that can greatly affect Bitcoin that we don't have any control off. Countries like India or Russia that are unsure about their crypto industry can greatly affect our demand as well the adoption needed for Bitcoin's growth.

[naikturun]

I also think so, in the beginning bitcoin was doubtful but now people are competing to own bitcoin because it is a quite attractive investment, in addition to a limited number of long-term goals of bitcoin as a payment, with a limited supply it will make the price rise every year.
some also use it for day trading.

[justdimin]

Well, bitcoin can't change in the sense that people may not want to do something and that may not change bitcoin too much but simple stuff could always change. The biggest example I could give to you right now would be the 21 million coins versus the segwit thing.

When we are talking about 21 million being the absolute last coin and there can't be 40 million of them for example, that is actually something that can't be changed at all, yet when we are talking about something like segwit because it helps everyone and allows people to send and receive a lot cheaper and transactions get a lot more with the same fee that is something that can be changed. That is what I want to make sure people understand when we are talking about bitcoin being able to change or not.

[shoreno]

I also think so, in the beginning bitcoin was doubtful but now people are competing to own bitcoin because it is a quite attractive investment, in addition to a limited number of long-term goals of bitcoin as a payment, with a limited supply it will make the price rise every year.
some also use it for day trading.

yep , new stuffs are always questionable but at the same time people got curious and that makes them try btc  . thier doubts remove after they found out that btc was legit and useful .  they dont need to rush to own a btc because the supply of btc is still millions and every one of us can get a piece of it   . its supply might be limited but theres no proof that price can increase every year  but price can also decrease or remains the same .

[Zemomtum]

I am looking towards breaking the upper bound and I have kept a close eyes on this for over a week now. BTC is an asset that both individual and institution love to hold for long time. We are yet to see mass adoption and great days lies ahead.

[peter0425]

Something unexpected needs to happen for $Bitcoin's price to stop doing what it's been doing for most of the past decade: appreciating. Demand and adoption metrics remain favorable vs. the $crypto asset's unique attribute of fixed supply.

Don't worry Crypto is full of surprises mate you will be shocked always for what this can bring you,while others are claiming about the Bear in the next day Bull will come.

But i like your Point here at least something we must expect before seeing the progress of the market.
actually i can stand to wait more even if this take me holding till next year but if this can happen in 4th quarter then i will be glad.

[Reatim]

Something unexpected needs to happen for $Bitcoin's price to stop doing what it's been doing for most of the past decade: appreciating. Demand and adoption metrics remain favorable vs. the $crypto asset's unique attribute of fixed supply.

Actually it is expected somehow but seems impossible for now to become reality but as crypto Holder i am looking from every sides of each to at least happen little by little so in next years there will be development.
i hate seeing things being not consider while there are some chances for this to come.

Adoption is what we really need here.
Bitcoin and cryptos must be on top of every people and believing on this more than Fiat and other online Money.

[Emitdama]

The sad thing about bitcoin is the fact that unexpected things could happen in crypto a lot, we are talking about something so volatile and so unregulated that tomorrow there could be 5 billion dollars worth of bitcoin bought and nobody would be shocked, I mean they would be a little shocked but it is not illegal or there is no laws against it, if someone wants to do it they can do it, do you know how hard it is to make a 5 billion dollar purchase for any stock?

It would take weeks even months of getting ready for something like that to happen, in crypto it takes just few hours for the transaction to be confirmed and that's it. That is why do not really put all your eggs in the crypto market, unexpected stuff happens here all the time and you could be not ready when that happens.