Question on price projection

[dewunderlich]

I've been holding a few bitcoins for about 3 years now and am wondering about the projected price.  We keep reading projections that it's going to go to $100,000 or $1,000,000 or some other sky-high amount in the next 1 to 3 years.  My question is how will this ever happen if every time it gains $500 to $1,000 we hit resistance where the bottom falls out and then all the analysts say it's because it was over-bought?  I'm starting to think I should cut my losses and sell.

[mk4]

Maybe you should stop reading about these so called "price projections" in the first place. No trader or investor could accurate price movements with pinpoint accuracy anyway simply because in the end it all boils down to the typical supply and demand. There are simply so much factors that could affect bitcoin's demand that it's next to impossible to predict prices.

If you think bitcoin is something that could be worth a lot more in the future, then hold. If not, then sell and invest in something that you're bullish in instead. It's that simple, really.

[Upgrade00]

Do not invest in any asset based off other people's predictions. There are so many profiles on social media who shill several coins (Bitcoin included) for personal gain. When you invest you bear the risk, and you should have knowledge of the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network inorder to build a projected ROI. In some cases you would also need knowledge on technical analysis to choose how and when to buy in.
If you bought during the last bull run which was 3 years ago you would be at a loss now, however it's a very small window; any other period that year except during the monthish length of the bull spike would leave you with a positive index. I would assume that monthish length was when you bought

The decision to cut your losses is still yours to make, you would likely get diverse advises on this thread, you however bear the risk and decide what to do with your investment. It would naturally be frustrating when it refuses to break above your buy in price, especially after such a long period. My advice;
• Stop following price projections, they are just personal opinions of others. Make efforts to understand what you are holding and build your own personal predictions.
• Research on other potential investments and if you are going to dump Bitcoin for another make an effort to choose the time to buy in to avoid joining the FOMO hype and buying at the top.
• Understand that market changes and there's no guarantee when investing.

[Maus0728]

Following price predictions that lasts a year or so would be very impossible to predict and take note that these theoretical guess are just simply being used as a reference to how bitcoin market will go and not on something that we should rely in the first place.

I bet that if you want the assurance of other people then many will say that you should at least "hold" or invest in something that will actually increase your bitcoin holdings.

[cryptoaddictchie]

My question is how will this ever happen if every time it gains $500 to $1,000 we hit resistance where the bottom falls out and then all the analysts say it's because it was over-bought?  I'm starting to think I should cut my losses and sell.

You said it yourself, why its moving on an assumption level where it can reach those price. Its because BTC is a speculative commodity and does not guaranteed any rate of success. It could fail if demands on it got  lower on the market.

Like mk4 said, if you really trust bitcoin then just hold it without any fear. You are not looking on long term perspective but viewing it as mid to short term goal.  If youre aiming for profits then go trading and even within an hour you can gain massive profits. But of course take precautions on its risk.

Time will tell if were gonna reach that values but for the meantime, lets all see whether it could even beat its ATH.

[acroman08]

We keep reading projections that it's going to go to $100,000 or $1,000,000 or some other sky-high amount in the next 1 to 3 years.

why even follow these price projections? these people who have predicted these prices have no Idea if it will ever happen or not.

I'm starting to think I should cut my losses and sell.

trade at your own will and do not let these predictions hold you back or decide what you need to do.

[Yogee]

.......We keep reading projections that it's going to go to $100,000 or $1,000,000 or some other sky-high amount in the next 1 to 3 years.

 
Be wary about these kinds of projections. I really doubt if those analysts believe their own predictions. They are bold to say those prices because they know they can't be sued if they make a mistake. They also understand that most people forget quickly so they keep on talking. We've seen a lot of people like them and the most notable is John McAfee.

My question is how will this ever happen if every time it gains $500 to $1,000 we hit resistance where the bottom falls out and then all the analysts say it's because it was over-bought?

It's an open market.

If there are more buyers to break the resistance or sell walls, price will be pushed up but bear in mind that this will not last. Buyers will lose steam at some point and support will weaken. If that happens, expect more sellers to dump and push the price down. If there will be more buyers again, the same pattern will occur  It's a cycle.

I'm starting to think I should cut my losses and sell.

This really depends on you. If you are getting impatient waiting for gains and it's stressing you out, you should probably take the loss and move on. Otherwise, ignore all the noise from these analysts and hodl.

[joniboini]

I'm starting to think I should cut my losses and sell.

Many people said the same thing when Bitcoin was $14, $1500, $3500, and so on. The point is you need to decide on your own. Analysis is just an opinion, it's not facts. Even if they use sophisticated indicators like ichimoku cloud, moving average, etc, it's just technical stuff. This is why you should only put the money you can afford to loss so you can just chill out and hold for years.

[Bitcoin_bullish]

I've been holding a few bitcoins for about 3 years now ..........  I'm starting to think I should cut my losses and sell.

I just keep this part out of the rest of this post which were probably written as a distraction. If you bought 3 years ago then you would be in profit. I guess your post implies that you bought right on the top at $18-20k. If you did that it is up to you to decide if cutting losses is the best course of action.

Wouldn't you have similar question last year when price reached 14k which is higher than now? What changed this time? Indicators are looking way better than last year and interest in Bitcoin is rising.
I think you created this post to cast doubts to the rest.

[boyptc]

How much are the losses you have right now?

Forget first about $1,000,000 but you can aim for $100,000 as you hold. We're all hoping for that price to come so think of it first if it's worth for you to cut losses.

But why did you invest in bitcoin? just because someone said it will shoot up?

[Lucius]

How much are the losses you have right now?

OP is saying : "I've been holding a few bitcoins for about 3 years now", so if it is somewhat accurate, we can talk about investment time sometime around ATH in December 2017 or in first days of 2018. It means he bought it at a price above $15 000, and if he sells now his loss would be a maximum of about $8000 per BTC if bought at the peak.

The OP thought to get rich overnight like many others, but it is obvious that it has no patience and does not recognize the moment we are in now. I'm not giving financial advice, but I don't think it would be wise to sell now - I personally would at least wait until the end of the year if I didn't really need the money.

[Jet Cash]

If you are a long term holder, then don't watch the peaks in the graphs, but watch the trend of the low points. That will give you a feel for the true prospects for the price.

[Cnut237]

If you are a long term holder, then don't watch the peaks in the graphs, but watch the trend of the low points. That will give you a feel for the true prospects for the price.

Better yet, if you are looking at price trends on coinmarketcap, then you should a) look over all time, and b) switch the chart to log scale.
This will help to give you a better understanding of price movements.

The reason I advise to switch to 'all time' is to smooth out all of the short-term noise and volatility.

The reason I advise to switch to log scale is because we have seen orders-of-magnitude price changes over the years, and if you use a linear scale then historic price changes are smeared out to a flat line, which doesn't help to give you perspective. But using a log scale reveals the historic movements.

The two approaches combined give what I think is a decent picture of how the price has changed:



Now this should give you a starting point in determining what you think bitcoin might be worth in a few years' time. There are then a huge number of other factors to consider, such as changes in adoption, changes in use case, regulatory positions etc. The short answer is everyone is guessing as to future price. All that you can do is decide for yourself what you think is most likely to happen, and then buy/sell accordingly.

[daneal stev]

It is very difficult for anyone to predict the movement of the currency market and the price that it will reach in the future because these currencies are unstable and witness many fluctuations on a daily and continuous basis. Therefore, I think that he loves us to stop expectations and wait and watch what will happen to prices in the coming years

[jademaxsuy]

bitcoin market is very unpredictable and if I were you OP do not depend on the speculations and predictions that has been posted in some threads. Actually those threads are created to encourage everyone to hold bitcoins so that it could a high market and bitcoin will become expensive in the market. This will make bitcoin holder's to earn more when market is high. But, let us not forget the real essense of bitcoin why it was being created and that is to do a P2P trade anonymously and the best of all is away from high transaction fee deducted to third party to secure transaction. Bitcoin has blockchain already so it is already secured and transaction is being public through blockchain.

In our place bitcoin has been already used as payments for billing and transaferring e wallets. I guess there will come a time that bitcoin will be added as payment system and at the same time as trading investment tllike stockmarket because of its volatility.

If I were you OP take a closer look what bitcoin could do to you in your place and see how you can take advantage on it.

[Assface16678]

The market is volatile it's depends on you already gained profit you can cut already. It's hard to trust the market movement of the coin because every time we want to make an investment there is a possible huge change.

If you already get an investment with the lowest market entry and you want to pull it now I think this is the time but still, if you are trying to look the marker price of the coin is on an uptrend which is a good thing for another hold your coins.

Also, I highly encouraged you to learn about the graph movements even just the basic so you have immediately an idea what are the next movement and you can pull out your funds without hesitation and do not become an independent to other.

[-CryptoViking-]

You already invested, so why not consider it your pension fund. So just hodl the safely and forget about touching it for the next 10+ years or more depending on your age. When the time comes I'm sure you will have more then you would get in 10 years of monthly installments of your regular pension that you will earn.

[gentlemand]

My question is how will this ever happen if every time it gains $500 to $1,000 we hit resistance where the bottom falls out and then all the analysts say it's because it was over-bought?  I'm starting to think I should cut my losses and sell.

Like other markets there are only a handful of days per year where the powerful rises happen. If you're not present during those days then your year will be either very boring or result in a loss.

Most of the time it doesn't do much and moves are slapped down because the only people present in the market are scalpers who don't require epic moments to make money. That can carry on for years and it has done. There has to be a tide of sentiment and new blood for it to break beyond that.

The only way prices rise is by demand outstripping supply and you need a consistent and growing amount of demand for a large and sustained rise which isn't here at the moment. When it is we'll know it.

If you bought 3 years ago and are still underwater that means you've must've bought near the peak of the previous demand so you'll know how manic it was. So did I in 2013 pretty much. It took 3 long, boring and occasionally alarming years to get back in the black and then it did it with a vengeance.

So far people are looking at a 4 year cycle based on the halvings with a peak in demand happening at the end of the year after production halves, that's late 2021. If you don't need the money I would wait until it is approaching that point to see whether it'll happen again. A lot of things are building in the background.

There's absolutely no guarantee of that happening but it is the most reliable pattern we've had so far and it fits human psychology. If I were you I'd give it at least a chance to play out. If it's correct this year will continue to be not very exciting but next year may be rather more so. If you've come this far you are likely to have already experienced the worst of it. 

That's my take. Feel completely free to discard.

[fortunecrypto]

I've been holding a few bitcoins for about 3 years now and am wondering about the projected price.  We keep reading projections that it's going to go to $100,000 or $1,000,000 or some other sky-high amount in the next 1 to 3 years.  My question is how will this ever happen if every time it gains $500 to $1,000 we hit resistance where the bottom falls out and then all the analysts say it's because it was over-bought?  I'm starting to think I should cut my losses and sell.

Those are an overhyped statement, unfortunately, it's hard to ignore this because it's coming from these so-called experts like McAfee and some so-called tech experts, these words are not guaranteed it's still your decision and your analysis that matters, you either believe the hype or go for analysis, history, and events are here for you to analyze and come out with the best decision.

[boyptc]

How much are the losses you have right now?

OP is saying : "I've been holding a few bitcoins for about 3 years now", so if it is somewhat accurate, we can talk about investment time sometime around ATH in December 2017 or in first days of 2018. It means he bought it at a price above $15 000, and if he sells now his loss would be a maximum of about $8000 per BTC if bought at the peak.

The OP thought to get rich overnight like many others, but it is obvious that it has no patience and does not recognize the moment we are in now. I'm not giving financial advice, but I don't think it would be wise to sell now - I personally would at least wait until the end of the year if I didn't really need the money.

Yes.

If he can give the exact amount of his losses or how much he'd bought bitcoin 3 years ago, we can have some idea if it's good for him to cut losses or he's still in deep losses.

He hasn't stated how much he invested so no idea if it's a big amount or small amount he'd loss.