History: Spanish flu, Over 50 million death.

[Charles-Tim]

As I was reading the BBC news today, I read about 1918 spanish flu, this flu was deadlier than covid-19, this is the summary:

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200302-coronavirus-what-can-we-learn-from-the-spanish-flu
One hundred years ago, a world recovering from a global war that had killed some 20 million people suddenly had to contend with something even more deadly: a flu outbreak.

The pandemic, which became known as Spanish flu, is thought to have begun in cramped and crowded army training camps on the Western Front. The unsanitary conditions – especially in the trenches along the French border – helped it incubate and then spread. The war ended in November 1918, but as the soldiers returned home, bringing the virus with them, an even greater loss of life was just around the corner; between 50 million and 100 million people are thought to have died.

The world has suffered many pandemics in the years since – at least three serious flu outbreaks among them – but no pandemic has been as deadly, nor as far-reaching.

Doctors have described the Spanish flu as the “greatest medical holocaust in history”. It was not just the fact it killed so many, it was that so many of its victims were young and healthy. Normally, a healthy immune system can deal reasonably well with flu, but this version struck so quickly that it overwhelmed the immune system, causing a massive over-reaction known as a cytokine storm, flooding the lungs with fluid which became the perfect reservoir for secondary infections. Older people, interestingly, were not as susceptible, perhaps because they had survived a very similar strain of flu which had started to spread through human populations in the 1830s.

Corona virus has never been the first pandemic disease, and it has never been the deadliest, the deadliest was Spanish flu that claimed over 50 million lives when people traveling through the air has never been so common like these days, I am just wondering this should have been a lesson why the world should respond fast to any disease outbreak, closing border from citizens of such country that are spreading the disease and doing all possible best to help eliminate the disease.

So far there are pandemic diseases in the past, there could also be pandemic diseases later after covid-19, the goverments of each countries should not be lenient about any viral outbreak again, be it epidemic or pandemic, all measures should be in place in order to easily extinct the virus away from earth.

I believe covid-19 will later extinct too but this should be a lesson. Prevention is better than cure, and could save more peoples lives. There should be other professional and medical ways of preventing diseases to spread.

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[Gyfts]

The Spanish flu had an inflated death rate because there wasn't modern medicine. If COVID-19 didn't have mitigation efforts supported by modern technology and medicine, you can guarantee you'd see millions dead before herd immunity kicked in.

[Charles-Tim]

The Spanish flu had an inflated death rate because there wasn't modern medicine. If COVID-19 didn't have mitigation efforts supported by modern technology and medicine, you can guarantee you'd see millions dead before herd immunity kicked in.

Although, you are right. But the point is that Spanish flu killed people more than covid-19 and is still regarded as the deadiest pandemic disease as of today. Also, what I am just trying to drive out is for governments to stringently focus on how disease outbreak can be prevented before resulting into pandemic disease. It has happened in the past, it is happening now, and there are possibilities of disease pandemic period in the future. That, this should be a lesson towards pandemic disease avoidance.

[BADecker]

Back then they had never seen a virus, dead or alive. Their microscopes weren't good enough.

Even though they had the proper methodology for filtering a virus, seems that the viruses they filtered out didn't affect any of the people they purposely injected, to fulfill the protocols or the methodology.

In other words, whatever caused the pandemic back then is unknown and unproven.

[Gyfts]

The Spanish flu had an inflated death rate because there wasn't modern medicine. If COVID-19 didn't have mitigation efforts supported by modern technology and medicine, you can guarantee you'd see millions dead before herd immunity kicked in.

Although, you are right. But the point is that Spanish flu killed people more than covid-19 and is still regarded as the deadiest pandemic disease as of today. Also, what I am just trying to drive out is for governments to stringently focus on how disease outbreak can be prevented before resulting into pandemic disease. It has happened in the past, it is happening now, and there are possibilities of disease pandemic period in the future. That, this should be a lesson towards pandemic disease avoidance.

I get your point but pandemic avoidance is tough when the world is so interconnected. You can mitigate diseases but to an extent, some diseases are going to run its course. COVID-19 being one of them.

The real concern is when you have a disease like Ebola, roughly a 50% mortality rate, that has airborne transmission like COVID-19. In 2014, Ebola was mostly isolated in countries in Africa, which doesn't have large outgoing international travel, and it was only spread through direct contact.

Wait until we see some sort of super bug that makes it way from animal to animal transmission to animal to human in densely populated areas with a high mortality rate, and then we're in trouble. You can try mitigation efforts but the hope is we have the technology to eliminate the virus or therapeutic agents to treat it. To your point, if we're trying to be prepared, making sure hospital capacity is high is probably the best way to minimize the casualties. I'm not sure what else you can do.

[Coyster]

Before China and countries in Asia shut down their borders, the virus had already spread to many parts of the world, including America, Europe and Africa, imo why it took some countries quite a while to get their first case and subsequent cases was because they had insufficient testing facilities (Africa for example). It's not so easy to shut down your borders as a country, that is indirectly shutting down your economy, mind you that it took quite a while before countries had to succumb to closing their territories to outsiders, while returnees were quarantined, it was more or less the only option then.

All these makes it impossible to prevent a disease like Corona virus from spreading to many parts of the world. To mention a few; tourism and sports connects people to different parts of the world, for example when the virus hadn't become full blown, thousands of people still traveled to watch football matches (sports) in other countries, especially in England, Italy and Spain and months later they had a real issue on their hands. These and many more made the spread inevitable, and I don't think anyone is to blame for it.

There should be other professional and medical ways of preventing diseases to spread.

Natural immunity.

[Jet Cash]

Corona viruses have been around since the 1930s, and many others have been here for longer. There is no reason to believe that it will go away, it will just mutate. I have lived through 4 pandemics with no significant problems or side effects - this virus is the fourth. I have done this without any vaccination or pharmaceuticals for over 60 years. There is no substitute for a healthy natural immune system. After all, it has allowed us to increase and prosper despite all the health risks that are supposed to destroy us.

The biggest risks we have are fake news that spreads panic and stupid behaviour. banking theft and fraud that destroys the economy, and the pharmaceutical industry that destroys our health, and forces us to eat unhealthy foods.

[Cnut237]

the deadliest was Spanish flu that claimed over 50 million lives

If we are considering which is the deadliest pandemic in (recorded) human history, then it has to be the Black Death in the 14th century.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death
Estimated death toll is between 75 and 200 million... which as a proportion of the population at the time was absolutely huge. It took a couple of hundred years for population numbers to recover.
One positive effect - probably the only positive effect - was that the death of so many workers led to a power shift - with workers in such short supply, they became valuable - which led to the demise of feudalism. https://www.ancient.eu/article/1543/effects-of-the-black-death-on-europe/

[samputin]

The Spanish flu had an inflated death rate because there wasn't modern medicine. If COVID-19 didn't have mitigation efforts supported by modern technology and medicine, you can guarantee you'd see millions dead before herd immunity kicked in.

Yeah, guess that's something that we should be somehow grateful for. We have technologies now that helped us mitigate and cure those who've been affected. Though there have been millions of cases also around the world because of covid, at least it's not that many compared to the number who died because of the Spanish flu.

[Cnut237]

Corona viruses have been around since the 1930s, and many others have been here for longer. There is no reason to believe that it will go away, it will just mutate.

Yes, they were discovered in humans in the 30's. Possibly been with us for much longer. Certainly this one won't just go away by itself, and will mutate.

I have lived through 4 pandemics with no significant problems or side effects - this virus is the fourth. I have done this without any vaccination or pharmaceuticals for over 60 years. There is no substitute for a healthy natural immune system.

Yes, a healthy immune system is vital. But vaccination is a huge help on top of that. What would your argument be in response to the below, from the Russian vaccine thread?

I can find no good independent research that proves that vaccines are superior to natural immunity, and they seem to word by an inferior approach to mimic the natural processes.

Do you disagree that global polio cases have reduced dramatically since the vaccine programme started up?
Natural immunity had thousands of years to work to eradicate the virus, and was profoundly and tragically unsuccessful.

[Jet Cash]

Early vaccines were intended to eradicate diseases. Modern vaccines are designed to take control of immune systems, and thus give control of health and longevity to a ruling elite. Even in the early days, a healthy person could probably recover from the diseases, given that they had a healthy body, and observed a sensible recovery process - no bleeding for example, and no automatic fever reduction.

[Charles-Tim]

Yes, a healthy immune system is vital. But vaccination is a huge help on top of that. What would your argument be in response to the below, from the Russian vaccine thread?

I think what Jet Cash is implying is that the the world is moving from olden natural food era to modern processing food days, in addition are what we are now exposed to that we are not exposed to before. That, these are affecting our immunity. That the world are diverting much more towards drugs and vaccines. Why don't they also focus more on ways to prevent disease by researching more on the use of natural food to feed and also reducing the environmental toxic chemicals that could have long term side effects on our health.

[Poker Player]

I am worried that there is much more talk of vaccines and drugs than of strengthening the immune system, as has been mentioned.

But of course, that doesn't sell. Sleeping well, eating a healthy diet, sunbathing / optimizing vitamin D levels, etc. do not give profits to the pharmaceutical industry.

[Cnut237]

Sleeping well, eating a healthy diet, sunbathing / optimizing vitamin D levels, etc. do not give profits to the pharmaceutical industry.

Sleeping well, eating a healthy diet, sunbathing / optimizing vitamin D levels, etc. do not stop the spread of a pandemic, either.
A lot of the time, it does feel like I'm the only pro-vaccine person on this forum...

I agree that the pharmaceutical industry make huge profits and a lot of it is highly immoral. You don't have to look any further than Martin Shkreli to understand that this is the case. But the pharmaceutical industry also saves lives. Like most things, there are good and bad aspects.

I also agree that fostering a healthy immune system through sensible diet and exercise is a very good idea. A healthy immune system improves your chances of a good outcome whatever ailment you contract. It lessens the chances of severe effects, it lessens the chances of dying.... but it doesn't prevent these things, it doesn't magically confer immunity.

[Jet Cash]

You can't foster a good immune system if you allow yourself to be vaccinated. The concepts are mutually exclusive

[Cnut237]

You can't foster a good immune system if you allow yourself to be vaccinated. The concepts are mutually exclusive

They're not mutually exclusive; they're the same thing.

Do you agree that exposure to mild pathogens in everyday life helps to boost the immune system? That, for example, a lot of the allergies that are so common these days are due in part to kids being brought up in overly sanitised environments?

Vaccines work by exposing the body to a weakened form of the virus, in order to train the immune system to repel the real thing.

If we don't have vaccines, we are effectively going into battle unprepared. We've discussed polio before. How about smallpox? Diptheria? Are you really contending that a world with no vaccines against these would be preferable? What about rising cases of measles due to anti-vaxxers?

[Salauddin1994]

Many people were infected with the flu the deadliest in human history. This is more than the number of people killed in the First World War. At that time a quarter of the world's population died from the virus. Like the coronavirus it spread to many parts of the world. Both Germany and Britain, including America, suffered greatly. But if adequate vaccines are not available the death toll will continue to rise.

[Spendulus]

Sleeping well, eating a healthy diet, sunbathing / optimizing vitamin D levels, etc. do not give profits to the pharmaceutical industry.

Sleeping well, eating a healthy diet, sunbathing / optimizing vitamin D levels, etc. do not stop the spread of a pandemic, either.
A lot of the time, it does feel like I'm the only pro-vaccine person on this forum...

I agree that the pharmaceutical industry make huge profits and a lot of it is highly immoral. You don't have to look any further than Martin Shkreli to understand that this is the case. But the pharmaceutical industry also saves lives. Like most things, there are good and bad aspects.

I also agree that fostering a healthy immune system through sensible diet and exercise is a very good idea. A healthy immune system improves your chances of a good outcome whatever ailment you contract. It lessens the chances of severe effects, it lessens the chances of dying.... but it doesn't prevent these things, it doesn't magically confer immunity.

No, you are not the only pro-vaccine person here. Most simply ignore these arguments and I admit to also finding them dull and uninteresting.

The Spanish Flu and the Black Death, and other historical pandemics, are all worth studying for comparative purposes. Our response to Covid will be a model for our response to future pandemics, whether good or bad.

[Jet Cash]

If a vaccine is a weakened form of the virus, then it is synthetic and the response is not natural. Gi ing the vaccine to a person with natural immunity messes up that immunity.

I would also point out that nobody has claimed the reward for documentting a healthy person who has died solely from the virus

[Charles-Tim]

The Spanish Flu and the Black Death, and other historical pandemics, are all worth studying for comparative purposes. Our response to Covid will be a model for our response to future pandemics, whether good or bad.

This is what I am implying, the past should be a lesson for the governments to know the right step to take in order for such viruses and bacteria not to breakout like before again, all preventive measure must be taking. There are a lot we humans must put into place that we are lacking. Not only depending much on one aspect like vaccine creation. Also, like I implied above, prevention is better aspect of life than cure, but cure should be the alternative.

If a vaccine is a weakened form of the virus, then it is synthetic and the response is not natural. Gi ing the vaccine to a person with natural immunity messes up that immunity.

You are right about this. Also, the vaccine may not even be the weakened form of the virus, it can be another similar virus that cause less negative effect. For example, covid-19 is a Coronavirus but the Russian vaccine is prepared from Adenovirus not weakened form of Coronavirus. But, weakened form of Coronavirus can also be used and have positive results (maybe). But that does not still change the fact for the governments to focus more on natural immunity and preventive measures.

[Spendulus]

The Spanish Flu and the Black Death, and other historical pandemics, are all worth studying for comparative purposes. Our response to Covid will be a model for our response to future pandemics, whether good or bad.

This is what I am implying, the past should be a lesson for the governments to know the right step to take in order for such viruses and bacteria not to breakout like before again, all preventive measure must be taking. There are a lot we humans must put into place that we are lacking. Not only depending much on one aspect like vaccine creation. Also, like I implied above, prevention is better aspect of life than cure, but cure should be the alternative. ....

Maybe some of the money wasted on "Climate Change" could be put to use on these issues. But don't hold your breath...

[aioc]

Corona virus has never been the first pandemic disease, and it has never been the deadliest, the deadliest was Spanish flu that claimed over 50 million lives when people traveling through the air has never been so common like these days, I am just wondering this should have been a lesson why the world should respond fast to any disease outbreak, closing border from citizens of such country that are spreading the disease and doing all possible best to help eliminate the disease.

So far there are pandemic diseases in the past, there could also be pandemic diseases later after covid-19, the goverments of each countries should not be lenient about any viral outbreak again, be it epidemic or pandemic, all measures should be in place in order to easily extinct the virus away from earth.

I believe covid-19 will later extinct too but this should be a lesson. Prevention is better than cure, and could save more peoples lives. There should be other professional and medical ways of preventing diseases to spread.

The gap of occurrence between the pandemic is long but what makes the COVID deadly is the impact it created chaos in the world's economy
we are billions now population is more bigger than the population in the Spanish flu and because we are so crowded so many country cannot keep up with distancing but the good thing is we have an advancement in science and medicine that we can deal with it.

[franky1]

The Spanish flu had an inflated death rate because there wasn't modern medicine. If COVID-19 didn't have mitigation efforts supported by modern technology and medicine, you can guarantee you'd see millions dead before herd immunity kicked in.

Although, you are right. But the point is that Spanish flu killed people more than covid-19 and is still regarded as the deadiest pandemic disease as of today. Also, what I am just trying to drive out is for governments to stringently focus on how disease outbreak can be prevented before resulting into pandemic disease. It has happened in the past, it is happening now, and there are possibilities of disease pandemic period in the future. That, this should be a lesson towards pandemic disease avoidance.

stats say out of 1000 tested positive(mild symptoms) 4000 to 9000 without symptoms
stats say out of 1000 tested positive(mild symptoms) 100 need hospital care

so out of 5k to 10k 100 need hospital care 1-2%
without hospitals the death rate would be 1-2%(70m-140m world pop in a non healthcare world)
..
luckily we have a healthcare system so numbers are better than this
so if you factor in the healthcare where there are low case numbers going to hospital meaning they can be treated efficiently and given all the care they need the rate of death is about 3 out of 100 hospitalisations
3 of 5-10k(0.03%-0.06%)

however at the peak of patient admissions where they were turning away mild patients to prioritise the severe the was a death rate of 30 out of 100(0.3%-0.6% of 5k-10k)

so having too many sick at any one time can cause less people to be treated early. thus more deaths, and also more deaths indirectly from those not with covid, but other illnesses that wont get treatment while doctors are concentrating on covid patients

meaning if there is a 1-2% hospitalisation rate. but only a 0.02% bed capacity rate covid(0.18% other care)
for each million people with only 200 beds available
you can only have 200 in hospital for 2 weeks =10k-20k spread a fortnight

trying to keep a stable spread of only 200 hospitalisations is tough because natural spread is exponential not stable/flat

using the weekly spread numbers, thus only having 100 bed circulation a week
EG low figures(10k infect 100 hospital(1%)) and the R0 rate of 3
spread: 50   150    450     1350    4050    12,150
hospitl:  1      1       4         13        40        121
deaths:  0      0       0          1         2          24*

*3 death out of 100 even with treatment and 21 death due to not having a bed so dying without treatment

10k a week/m spread=100 weeks for 'full population'=2 years.
but trying to keep it to 10k spread to only have 100 hospitalisations to only have 3 deaths. not easy
as you can see by haw easy the r0 can cause more than 10k, thus more than 100 beds thus more than 3 deaths very quickly

....
anyway governments mistakes were 2 things
1. when china closed its flights but many countries actually organised their own repatriation flights to bring people from china back to their home country
2. when they started getting cases in other countries they didnt isolate those people. they only reacted once it started affecting the limitations of hospital capacity

some countries like thailand closed itself off when it has less than 50 symptomatic cases(weeks before the west). and yep they have been over 80 days clear of any thai person being symptomatic
same cant be said for US/UK who ignored health protection advice and prefered the economic protection model.

though the virus cant be completely irradicated because it will just come back in waves,, reducing how hard it can hit in one go could have been done better in many cases
asia for decades/centuries have respected personal space, they bow or put hands together in a praying gesture to welcome people. western countries still cough into their hand and shake hands with people.
though the fist bump is starting to become popular. its not as effecting as distant gestures like bowing

UK centuries ago used to 'tip the hat' and had hankerchiefs.. but they started to copy french(cheek kissing) and hand shaking by saying it is an act of trust that you dont fear the other person having something contagious
(yep its like tapping beer glasses together to make a toast as a gesture you dont fear poison being passed glass to glass as a act of trust of the person serving the drink.. an act of defiance against health precaution in those times that caught on as a trend)

[BADecker]

stats say out of 1000 tested positive(mild symptoms) 4000 to 9000 without symptoms
stats say out of 1000 tested positive(mild symptoms) 100 need hospital care

Stats don't say "virus." Proof for virus wasn't there back then since they didn't have electron microscopes to see them. Stats are what people dreamed up to put down on paper. They didn't really know that viruses even existed back then.

For all we know, the plague back then might have been some kind of gas emitted by a passing asteroid that nobody saw in any telescope... a gas that gradually dissipated over a year or two.

If NASA Couldn’t See The Asteroid That Just Whizzed By Us, What Else Can’t They See?

"Did you know that an asteroid just flew by our planet at an extremely close distance?  The good news is that it was only about the size of a car, but the bad news is that NASA had absolutely no idea that it was coming.

In fact, NASA only discovered it about six hours after it had passed us."

If NASA didn't see the asteroid until it was past, why would anybody think that the doctors back in 1918 knew much of anything? In fact, they didn't know much of anything. How can we tell? The plague existed. Given all their knowledge, they didn't actually contain the plague.

Writings about what the plague was came after. They had to call it something. So they made a stab in the dark, and wrote down whatever they wrote. And that is what we have recorded in history... even though nobody really knows what that plague was.

[Gozie51]

I would also point out that nobody has claimed the reward for documentting a healthy person who has died solely from the vir

You are right on this. I have not seen such record too. Much record of people died are those with chronic health condition before the attack of the virus. And surely because they had a failing health situation, that got their system prone to a new infestation or infestion as the immunity level has dropped.

Example, someone who is battling with respiratory infection will have more complication with a new attack of virus/disease.

Living a healthy life style, is a therapy for prevention.

[lepbagong]

The Spanish flu had an inflated death rate because there wasn't modern medicine. If COVID-19 didn't have mitigation efforts supported by modern technology and medicine, you can guarantee you'd see millions dead before herd immunity kicked in.

actually covid-19 is the same as the common cold but what is very frightening is that there are more people who do not feel that they have been exposed to covid-19, this is what makes many people not pay attention to this because they just feel healthy. and the retention of covid-19 is being exposed to those whose immunity is weak because there is already a congenital disease and especially for those over 50 years of age because disrupted lung work results in all other organ functions being disrupted.