History: Spanish flu, Over 50 million death.

[Spendulus]

The Spanish Flu and the Black Death, and other historical pandemics, are all worth studying for comparative purposes. Our response to Covid will be a model for our response to future pandemics, whether good or bad.

This is what I am implying, the past should be a lesson for the governments to know the right step to take in order for such viruses and bacteria not to breakout like before again, all preventive measure must be taking. There are a lot we humans must put into place that we are lacking. Not only depending much on one aspect like vaccine creation. Also, like I implied above, prevention is better aspect of life than cure, but cure should be the alternative. ....

Maybe some of the money wasted on "Climate Change" could be put to use on these issues. But don't hold your breath...

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[aioc]

Corona virus has never been the first pandemic disease, and it has never been the deadliest, the deadliest was Spanish flu that claimed over 50 million lives when people traveling through the air has never been so common like these days, I am just wondering this should have been a lesson why the world should respond fast to any disease outbreak, closing border from citizens of such country that are spreading the disease and doing all possible best to help eliminate the disease.

So far there are pandemic diseases in the past, there could also be pandemic diseases later after covid-19, the goverments of each countries should not be lenient about any viral outbreak again, be it epidemic or pandemic, all measures should be in place in order to easily extinct the virus away from earth.

I believe covid-19 will later extinct too but this should be a lesson. Prevention is better than cure, and could save more peoples lives. There should be other professional and medical ways of preventing diseases to spread.

The gap of occurrence between the pandemic is long but what makes the COVID deadly is the impact it created chaos in the world's economy
we are billions now population is more bigger than the population in the Spanish flu and because we are so crowded so many country cannot keep up with distancing but the good thing is we have an advancement in science and medicine that we can deal with it.

[franky1]

The Spanish flu had an inflated death rate because there wasn't modern medicine. If COVID-19 didn't have mitigation efforts supported by modern technology and medicine, you can guarantee you'd see millions dead before herd immunity kicked in.

Although, you are right. But the point is that Spanish flu killed people more than covid-19 and is still regarded as the deadiest pandemic disease as of today. Also, what I am just trying to drive out is for governments to stringently focus on how disease outbreak can be prevented before resulting into pandemic disease. It has happened in the past, it is happening now, and there are possibilities of disease pandemic period in the future. That, this should be a lesson towards pandemic disease avoidance.

stats say out of 1000 tested positive(mild symptoms) 4000 to 9000 without symptoms
stats say out of 1000 tested positive(mild symptoms) 100 need hospital care

so out of 5k to 10k 100 need hospital care 1-2%
without hospitals the death rate would be 1-2%(70m-140m world pop in a non healthcare world)
..
luckily we have a healthcare system so numbers are better than this
so if you factor in the healthcare where there are low case numbers going to hospital meaning they can be treated efficiently and given all the care they need the rate of death is about 3 out of 100 hospitalisations
3 of 5-10k(0.03%-0.06%)

however at the peak of patient admissions where they were turning away mild patients to prioritise the severe the was a death rate of 30 out of 100(0.3%-0.6% of 5k-10k)

so having too many sick at any one time can cause less people to be treated early. thus more deaths, and also more deaths indirectly from those not with covid, but other illnesses that wont get treatment while doctors are concentrating on covid patients

meaning if there is a 1-2% hospitalisation rate. but only a 0.02% bed capacity rate covid(0.18% other care)
for each million people with only 200 beds available
you can only have 200 in hospital for 2 weeks =10k-20k spread a fortnight

trying to keep a stable spread of only 200 hospitalisations is tough because natural spread is exponential not stable/flat

using the weekly spread numbers, thus only having 100 bed circulation a week
EG low figures(10k infect 100 hospital(1%)) and the R0 rate of 3
spread: 50   150    450     1350    4050    12,150
hospitl:  1      1       4         13        40        121
deaths:  0      0       0          1         2          24*

*3 death out of 100 even with treatment and 21 death due to not having a bed so dying without treatment

10k a week/m spread=100 weeks for 'full population'=2 years.
but trying to keep it to 10k spread to only have 100 hospitalisations to only have 3 deaths. not easy
as you can see by haw easy the r0 can cause more than 10k, thus more than 100 beds thus more than 3 deaths very quickly

....
anyway governments mistakes were 2 things
1. when china closed its flights but many countries actually organised their own repatriation flights to bring people from china back to their home country
2. when they started getting cases in other countries they didnt isolate those people. they only reacted once it started affecting the limitations of hospital capacity

some countries like thailand closed itself off when it has less than 50 symptomatic cases(weeks before the west). and yep they have been over 80 days clear of any thai person being symptomatic
same cant be said for US/UK who ignored health protection advice and prefered the economic protection model.

though the virus cant be completely irradicated because it will just come back in waves,, reducing how hard it can hit in one go could have been done better in many cases
asia for decades/centuries have respected personal space, they bow or put hands together in a praying gesture to welcome people. western countries still cough into their hand and shake hands with people.
though the fist bump is starting to become popular. its not as effecting as distant gestures like bowing

UK centuries ago used to 'tip the hat' and had hankerchiefs.. but they started to copy french(cheek kissing) and hand shaking by saying it is an act of trust that you dont fear the other person having something contagious
(yep its like tapping beer glasses together to make a toast as a gesture you dont fear poison being passed glass to glass as a act of trust of the person serving the drink.. an act of defiance against health precaution in those times that caught on as a trend)

[BADecker]

stats say out of 1000 tested positive(mild symptoms) 4000 to 9000 without symptoms
stats say out of 1000 tested positive(mild symptoms) 100 need hospital care

Stats don't say "virus." Proof for virus wasn't there back then since they didn't have electron microscopes to see them. Stats are what people dreamed up to put down on paper. They didn't really know that viruses even existed back then.

For all we know, the plague back then might have been some kind of gas emitted by a passing asteroid that nobody saw in any telescope... a gas that gradually dissipated over a year or two.

If NASA Couldn’t See The Asteroid That Just Whizzed By Us, What Else Can’t They See?

"Did you know that an asteroid just flew by our planet at an extremely close distance?  The good news is that it was only about the size of a car, but the bad news is that NASA had absolutely no idea that it was coming.

In fact, NASA only discovered it about six hours after it had passed us."

If NASA didn't see the asteroid until it was past, why would anybody think that the doctors back in 1918 knew much of anything? In fact, they didn't know much of anything. How can we tell? The plague existed. Given all their knowledge, they didn't actually contain the plague.

Writings about what the plague was came after. They had to call it something. So they made a stab in the dark, and wrote down whatever they wrote. And that is what we have recorded in history... even though nobody really knows what that plague was.

[Gozie51]

I would also point out that nobody has claimed the reward for documentting a healthy person who has died solely from the vir

You are right on this. I have not seen such record too. Much record of people died are those with chronic health condition before the attack of the virus. And surely because they had a failing health situation, that got their system prone to a new infestation or infestion as the immunity level has dropped.

Example, someone who is battling with respiratory infection will have more complication with a new attack of virus/disease.

Living a healthy life style, is a therapy for prevention.

[lepbagong]

The Spanish flu had an inflated death rate because there wasn't modern medicine. If COVID-19 didn't have mitigation efforts supported by modern technology and medicine, you can guarantee you'd see millions dead before herd immunity kicked in.

actually covid-19 is the same as the common cold but what is very frightening is that there are more people who do not feel that they have been exposed to covid-19, this is what makes many people not pay attention to this because they just feel healthy. and the retention of covid-19 is being exposed to those whose immunity is weak because there is already a congenital disease and especially for those over 50 years of age because disrupted lung work results in all other organ functions being disrupted.