Bitcoin Dips to $11.6K, ETH Options Predict Price Below $400 by End of Year

[kolbalish]

Bitcoin traders are hitting the sell button Friday while the ether options market loads up on lower prices.

Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $11,674 as of 20:00 UTC (4 p.m. ET). Slipping 1.4% over the previous 24 hours.
Bitcoin’s 24-hour range: $11,605-$11,892.
BTC below its 10-day and 50-day moving averages, a bearish signal for market technicians.

After holding around $11,800 Thursday into Friday, bitcoin started to slide downward around 08:00 UTC (4 a.m. ET), dropping to a 24-hour low of $11,605. Spot volumes were lower to cap off the workweek. It was $138 million on major spot USD/BTC exchange Coinbase, lower than its $179 million average over the past month.
Over-the-counter crypto trader Henrik Kugelberg expects a bullish, if not record, fourth quarter ahead for bitcoin, even if the number of sluggish market days pile up. “I expect a slower curve but would not be surprised if we reach a $15,000 BTC in October and somewhere around $18,000-$20,000 at year end.”

Kugelberg points to the uncertain economy as giving people reason to swap fiat for crypto investments. “There’s the falling value of the dollar to be priced in; we have not seen the end of the dollar’s fall that is for sure,” he added. Indeed, while the U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the greenback’s strength versus a basket of other fiat currencies, is up 0.52% Friday, it’s still at lows not seen since June 2018.
In the bitcoin options market, Neil Van Huis, director of sales and institutional trading at liquidity provider Blockfills, noted volatility decreased  this week. Bitcoin’s at-the-money implied volatility, which is a metric to forecast movement in prices, has dropped from 71% Monday to 59% Friday. “Looks like some normalization of volatile trading as of late,” Van Huis said.
Opportunities in Ethereum-powered DeFi are taking some traders’ focus away from the bitcoin market, Kugelbrg told CoinDesk. “The crypto community is in a total FOMO to DeFi-related altcoins,” said Kugelberg. “I believe the run-up for bitcoin may be slower than expected and fueled by retail sales to newcomers wanting a somewhat steadier haven.”


Ether options market bearish
Ether (ETH) was down Friday, trading around $399 and slipping 3.8% in 24 hours as of 20:00 UTC (4:00 p.m. ET).

The ether options market is predicting prices by the end of 2020 won’t be much higher than they are now for the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency. December 20 maturities only give ether a 25% chance of being over $520, a 38% probability of being over $420 and a 41% chance of being over $400, according to data aggregator Skew.

Despite the probabilities, Jean-Marc Bonnefous, managing partner for Tellurian Capital, which has been investing in crypto projects since 2014, is still bullish on ether. He doesn’t see Ethereum’s fundamental issues, such as fees constraining the network, as anything but a speed bump on the fast-moving DeFi highway. “Structurally, no,” said Bonnefous. “But short term, ether needs a new trigger to go higher.”

Read more: https://www.coindesk.com/market-wrap-bitcoin-eth-options?amp=1

[Jating]

Just another price correction, so there's nothing to worry about. $12k is really a big barrier right now that once it is breached, seems like an automatic selling off, triggering another downturn. However, the end of the year is still that far and anything can happen. We can still hit around $15k and then look for a new all time high in 2021-2022. No need to worry, we are still in the bullish phase and it's just starting.

[peterpanda]

The price of bitcoin is okay for this time. We should some times for a better price. Don't be panic about price. If we avoid panic sell, bitcoin will hit $15k-$16k very soon.

[bitgolden]

I can't speak on bitcoin right now because all things are a bit uncertain about it, however we should point out that ethereum has 2.0 upgrade that it is waiting for and that is why I believe there is really no reason why it should be going down or staying at the same level.

I believe that the best thing for ethereum would be to actually increase because there is 2.0 coming up and that should be a good enough reason to make it work, I would say over 500 is easy because everyone will want to own more ethereum and stake it, plus there is also a chance for something like 700 dollars and above because we are talking about an increase and from 399 to 500 is not a big one, however one from 400 to 700 would be a lot more believable and understandable from trading aspect.

[btc_angela]

I can't speak on bitcoin right now because all things are a bit uncertain about it, however we should point out that ethereum has 2.0 upgrade that it is waiting for and that is why I believe there is really no reason why it should be going down or staying at the same level.

Bitcoin is already doing good at the moment, just few occasions wherein it will dip, but it will quickly bounce back.

I believe that the best thing for ethereum would be to actually increase because there is 2.0 coming up and that should be a good enough reason to make it work, I would say over 500 is easy because everyone will want to own more ethereum and stake it, plus there is also a chance for something like 700 dollars and above because we are talking about an increase and from 399 to 500 is not a big one, however one from 400 to 700 would be a lot more believable and understandable from trading aspect.

Their Testnet failed initially because of a bug and with that, it will be delayed again. So I don't know if those Ethereum stakers are going to take this news positively because the released of ETH2.0 has been delayed many times already. So it will be a squeeze to reach $400-$500 at the end of the year.

[aioc]

The price of bitcoin is okay for this time. We should some times for a better price. Don't be panic about price. If we avoid panic sell, bitcoin will hit $15k-$16k very soon.

It's the panic that harms the price of Bitcoin and so are the other altcoins, market is doing great right now it has proven it's resiliency in the past five months, it's the correction of the price that makes a dip of it's price it's like a one step backwards two steps forward I just don;t see the price down by $400 by the end of the year, based on the outlook of it's 5 months performances.

[Reatim]

There is a small correction happening and this is normal after having some Bull movement so i find it weird saying that Traders are bottoming here?

The price of bitcoin is okay for this time. We should some times for a better price. Don't be panic about price. If we avoid panic sell, bitcoin will hit $15k-$16k very soon.

It's the panic that harms the price of Bitcoin and so are the other altcoins, market is doing great right now it has proven it's resiliency in the past five months, it's the correction of the price that makes a dip of it's price it's like a one step backwards two steps forward I just don;t see the price down by $400 by the end of the year, based on the outlook of it's 5 months performances.

OP is just getting exaggerated thinking that this is really in effect,we have just reached $12,300 value of Bitcoin so what if we fall to $11,600 now?

we can call this correction and may Go high again sooner.

[NeuroticFish]

Bitcoin is ok at this kind of levels, more worrying could be the too slow movement in the last 2 days (if that'll continue much longer).
Ethereum... I don't know, I feel like the investors are fed with way too much unrealistic promises to give them hope, I've read that the changes don't look too good on testnet.

[maydna]

I am not too worried about the situations right now because I am sure that is just a correction for bitcoin price that usually happens after the price climb to the highest price. And we already saw that the price make the new ATH which we are waiting from a long time ago so that the price will be back soon to another higher price, and we will break the new ATH again. It will happen like this every time bitcoin price start rally. Besides that, we all at the weekend, which usually, the price is down for the correction. We will see the price will break $12k in the next week, and I think the price is now accumulating to get the right time to increase.

[coin-investor]

Anything can happen but things are looking good for now, I don't bother much on these negative  predictions all I'm reading are positive posts about the market, I want to be positive of the market and at the same time realistic, and so far the market realistically is showing good movement of bullish market.

[LogitechMouse]

Just a normal correction as expected since in the previous days, we are in an upward trend.
Another one is just a normal prediction. $12,000 is just a strong resistance right now and the $10,000 is just a strong support right now.

With regards to Ethereum, price right now is heavily driven by the hype of the development of the coin.
Ethereum to go below $400 is still possible since we aren't expecting for the upgrade of ETH to be finish this year.

[Oasisman]

Kugelberg points to the uncertain economy as giving people reason to swap fiat for crypto investments. “There’s the falling value of the dollar to be priced in; we have not seen the end of the dollar’s fall that is for sure,” he added.

This statement made sense. I have noticed some of people are slowly shifting to cryptocurrency or gold as the USD continues to fall. The end of this economic crisis may not been foreseeable yet, so people got threatened and concerned about their fiat currency slowly getting devaluation.
I'm not sure whether It made an impact to the rising motion of Btc price or is there any other relevant reasons other than the fall of fiat currencies due to excessive printing of money. Or this is just a continuation of the post halving price predictions that makes more investors gradually accumulating for the possible bullrun in 2021.

[Arkann]

Kugelberg points to the uncertain economy as giving people reason to swap fiat for crypto investments. “There’s the falling value of the dollar to be priced in; we have not seen the end of the dollar’s fall that is for sure,” he added.

This statement made sense. I have noticed some of people are slowly shifting to cryptocurrency or gold as the USD continues to fall. The end of this economic crisis may not been foreseeable yet, so people got threatened and concerned about their fiat currency slowly getting devaluation.
I'm not sure whether It made an impact to the rising motion of Btc price or is there any other relevant reasons other than the fall of fiat currencies due to excessive printing of money. Or this is just a continuation of the post halving price predictions that makes more investors gradually accumulating for the possible bullrun in 2021.

I believe that the impact on the situation occurs for several reasons, where the economic crisis due to the coronavirus, as well as halving, play the most important role. Inflationary processes in each country force people to keep their savings thanks to more valuable and alternative assets.

[hulla]

The weekend market when theres bullish trend in the market especially Sunday cant be use to judge market stance cause this are mostly the day arbitrage traders manipulate the market in other to get some quick profit before business days.

Kugelberg points to the uncertain economy as giving people reason to swap fiat for crypto investments. “There’s the falling value of the dollar to be priced in; we have not seen the end of the dollar’s fall that is for sure,” he added.

This statement made sense. I have noticed some of people are slowly shifting to cryptocurrency or gold as the USD continues to fall.

Cryptocurrency and gold are the current safe haven out of the pandemic destruction but the dollars devaluation was caused by the US government.
1) They dont backed it with gold
2) They continue to print despite excess money printing complication said by people.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I see it more as a possible testing of the offer by the whales, that is, when testing the offer they realize how much they want to sell, and thus decide whether or not to raise the price, normally if they do not get much offer they continue to raise the price, it is a matter of waiting.

[BrewMaster]

Kugelberg points to the uncertain economy as giving people reason to swap fiat for crypto investments.

it is funny how all the stuff news sites print these days has taken a 180 degree turn as if they weren't printing the exact opposite of this not so long ago saying "the uncertain economy is giving people reason to sell bitcoin"!

He doesn’t see Ethereum’s fundamental issues,

there are far more fundamental issues with ethereum as an investment but the main thing is its unlimited  supply. which means no sane person would ever consider it a good investment.

[glowing10]

It a mix of both as some of the articles says that bitcoin price can reach new high by end of 2020 and ETH could be well over 500$ etc and this article says other way around. So, it’s just one's understanding and research that what could be scenario and take a call else it is more of a confusion as for some bull run is ahead and for some it’s a bear market ahead.

[bitgolden]

What happens to ethereum by the end of the year depends on the market as much as depends on what happens to ethereum. Right now, we are on phase 0 right now and if we do not have any incline on whats going to happen, that means the price might actually stay under 400, however if we could manage to actually get to phase 1 that would mean that it could actually do better and go up.

This is why I believe that there is a chance it could be over 700 or under 300 and both of them have the same chance, all depending on whats going on with the development of the ethereum. Right now, there is really a lot of pressure on the ethereum team, if they can manage to make it, that is why I think it could go above 700, but if they fail that means price could go down.

[Harlot]

But is it really just a price correction? Or Bitcoin is really headed down after all this price movement? Because even if Bitcoin is still in the 11,700$ level it doesn't mean it will clearly stay in the level or higher for longer periods. Just think about why Bitcoin is struggling to move up above 12,000$ or at least stay there because if you look at Bitcoin's volume you will clearly see that the bullish breakout BTC had after March lacks demand you may even see that the volume is rapidly decreasing which is not supporting the price increase of Bitcoin.

[GreatArkansas]

But is it really just a price correction? Or Bitcoin is really headed down after all this price movement? Because even if Bitcoin is still in the 11,700$ level it doesn't mean it will clearly stay in the level or higher for longer periods.
(.....)

Probably a correction for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
As you saw before when we break the $12, 000, that was too fast and for sure a lot of traders take profits on that level of price. I am amazed on Bitcoin for not breaking below $11, 000 before, and now we are again to test the $12, 000 area.