Red Cards in Football and what they do to the odds and the outcome

[tyKiwanuka]

Source: https://derivates.kicker.de/image/upload/c_crop,x_6,y_89,w_2823,h_1588/w_1000,q_auto/jwj09cbm1mznwryesron.jpg

Red cards in football have a pretty big impact on football matches - there are only two incidents, when betting markets get suspended: goals and red cards. But how big is the impact of a red card in the end ?

This was always a factor of the game, where I wanted to do some research. There are some studies available in the internet, but they are way too simplified/general in the end for my liking. They don't take into account all the different circumstances which are important to do some analysis what a red card does to the game and how it potentially changed the outcome. These circumstances are:

• What were the pre-match odds ?
• When was the red card given ?
• To which player was the red card given
• What was the score at that time ?
• Was it given to home or away side?
• How did it affect the odds ?

Now these are probably too many factors to include in an anylysis in an online forum and it would take very long to have a big enough sample size to make a general assumption. But I want to use this thread to monitor games with red cards, to get a better feel for it, where some value could be found.

I will concentrate on ENG1, ESP1, ITA1 and GER1 for a start and see if there is any pattern. This will not be retrospective, but for the upcoming season in these leagues.

An example from FRA1 yesterday:

Bordeaux - Nantes
Pre-match odds: 2.64 - 2.94 - 3.02 (avg. from oddsportal)
Red card: Bordeaux in 20th minute, score 0-0
Final result: 0-0

After the red card for Bordeaux, the ML odds for Nantes went down to around 2.0-ish I think (didn't follow closely) and having watched the game in HT2, it would have been super value to place a bet on Bordeaux 1X, since Nantes was super poor. Bordeaux was happy defending the 0-0 and did so very well, can't remember a big goal scoring opportunity for Nantes. But it's not easy on a mental level to place a bet on a team that is one man down early in the game


We can use this thread also for some discussion about it.

In general I don't like red cards in terms of betting, not even for the team I bet against pre-match. It gives the game a completely new dynamic, which is not something I like and where I struggle a lot. Most of the times a red card is shown, I just stop following the game, if I wanted to do some live bets - just too hard for me to judge.

So what does a red card do ? It depends very much on all these circumstances above. For example, if you lead 3-0 and get a red card in 89th minute, it doesn't matter. If you are 1.2 favourite at home and get a red card in 15th minute, you still have very good chances to take the 3 points.

A lot of what happens after a red card is shown, is psychological imo. The team that is down by one man "just" needs 10% more from the remaining 10 players to compensate, but in their mind they think "uh, we are down one man, we have no chance anymore". They will choose a more defensive approach and by subbing a striker out, they can just park the bus, don't attack the opponents defenders that hard and it will be very hard for their opponent to score. There isn't more space then and you don't even need to run that much more, if you are well organized.

A red card will always kind of motivate the team that got it. It ups the team spirit imo and they are willing to go the extra mile to defend the result; it can be a good boost in team morale, if they get the job done. The team that has the strength in numbers will feel some additional pressure otoh. They are somehow expected to get the 3 points no matter what then or everyone will laugh at them.

I have no data to back it up, but I think the betting markets always overreact when a red card occurs. Since the data is so hard to process and classify, there is always a lot of uncertainty in the markets. Lets see, if we can work something out here in this regard.

What is your opinion or experience regarding red cards and the impact they have on the outcome of a football match ? Did you play football on some (semi-)professional level and one of your teammates got a red card ? What did this do to you, your team and your mental approach ?

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[KTChampions]

~
I have no data to back it up, but I think the betting markets always overreact when a red card occurs. Since the data is so hard to process and classify, there is always a lot of uncertainty in the markets. Lets see, if we can work something out here in this regard.
~

Markets are responding appropriately. I remember a time (how old I am, damn it) when the red card in football meant nothing. Since then, everything has changed a lot, the general level of the teams has leveled off, a lot of theoretical work has been done, etc. And now the state of affairs is very much closer to hockey, where the removal of one player completely changes the game and the outsider becomes the favorite (albeit for two minutes).
I should note that the matches where the red card was shown are getting pretty boring as one of the teams goes to the permanent defense. And I also noticed that oddly enough (although it is quite logical given that one team is constantly defending) many matches with red cards end in a draw.

[Wexnident]

A red card will always kind of motivate the team that got it. It ups the team spirit imo and they are willing to go the extra mile to defend the result; it can be a good boost in team morale, if they get the job done. The team that has the strength in numbers will feel some additional pressure otoh. They are somehow expected to get the 3 points no matter what then or everyone will laugh at them.

I have no data to back it up, but I think the betting markets always overreact when a red card occurs. Since the data is so hard to process and classify, there is always a lot of uncertainty in the markets. Lets see, if we can work something out here in this regard.

I'd actually think of it as the opposite. The one that got the red card would receive pressure, although they have the decision to defend till their last breath, it's still pressure to play against a full team with one less person. As for the opposing team, the pressure would still stay the same imo, it's not like their goal was changed, they still need to put out 3 points. Though I'm saying this, it's actually highly dependent on the team itself, since as you said, it's a psychological factor.

Like what @KT said, most matches that have red cards just end up with one team attacking and one defending. It becomes a rather stale game where you're just basically watching for the skill of the players and not the result anymore. The market also responds appropriately with that, we all have the statistics and records for most teams and players right now, they could basically respond to red card situations with appropriate results that shouldn't deviate that much. It's not like red card is a new thing, and there are a lot of matches for reference in the past already.

[ralle14]

I was also watching the live results of Ligue 1 earlier and in the first 20 minutes of Lille's match the odds slowly moved towards the draw but once Rennes got a red card Lille's odds moved down from 2.2 to 1.5 right away. My experience with red cards is slightly mixed sometimes it doesn't have a big difference when the other team is given an advantage like this. It's kind of similar to a powerplay in hockey where the other team lose one player for a couple of minutes usually their opponent will score but it doesn't always happen.

I kind of agree about the moving way too much after a red card but I think it's only because there's still a lot of time left. Now i'm interested to see how the odds would look like if the red card was given in the 50-80th minute.

[TedMosby]

I have no data to back it up, but I think the betting markets always overreact when a red card occurs. Since the data is so hard to process and classify, there is always a lot of uncertainty in the markets. Lets see, if we can work something out here in this regard.

I have searched google about this, and I found this paper. I am amaze with this paper lol
this is for you,
http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~vecer/redcard.pdf

[tyKiwanuka]

I'd actually think of it as the opposite. The one that got the red card would receive pressure, although they have the decision to defend till their last breath, it's still pressure to play against a full team with one less person.

Hmm, this is an interesting opinion I agree that this team will get a lot of physical pressure on the pitch, because the other team will attack relentlessly, but on a mental level I don't see the pressure increasing as I said (it's going down imo). No one expects anything no more from this team, there is nothing to lose no more. Imagine you get a draw with one man down - great result. Imagine you get a draw being one man up - not so great.

It's basically the same when a top team plays a way inferior team in lets say a cup game. Bayern Munich playing a third division team, all the pressure is on Bayern imo. Everything but a win is super embarassing and this is huge pressure (with which the pros learnt to deal with to some extent). For the Div3 team there is no pressure at all, everyone expects them to lose; even they themselves.

-

We as punters can maybe experience the same a bit too or at least I do. Lets say I place a bet on home win in a football match. As long as it is 0-0, I am rather calm, I live by the hope. The moment my team scores the 1-0 I feel some relieve, but also suddenly get more nervous - why ? Because it feels like I have this money already in my pocket, so now there is something to lose for me. This is pretty weird, but psychology. I talked to other people about this and they feel the same.

I have searched google about this, and I found this paper. I am amaze with this paper lol
this is for you,
http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~vecer/redcard.pdf

Thanks for posting this, quite interesting. As someone who always struggled with math a bit, I find these formulas very nice


Source: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~vecer/redcard.pdf

This was my gut feeling as well; goals are less likely most of the times after a red card was shown:

We have shown that when one of the teams receives a red card, its scoring intensity is reduced to about 2/3 of the original intensity, whereas the intensity of the opposing team increases by afactor of about 5/4

[Lakai01]

Once again a very interesting thread tyKiwanuka, thank you very much for that!

We have shown that when one of the teams receives a red card, its scoring intensity is reduced to about 2/3 of the original intensity, whereas the intensity of the opposing team increases by afactor of about 5/4

I think this is quite obvious. Often players in defense or defensive midfield are affected by red cards. So if a player is taken off the field in this position, someone from the more offensive game has to fill this gap. Either by letting him fall back or by substituting him. This will inevitably result in a lack of attacking power.
In my opinion, the higher probability for goals simply results from the fact that the opposing team can now build up attacks more easily and thus inevitably have more chances to score goals.

If you look at sports betting I find this statistic quite interesting:

Source
According to this, a team that has received a red card loses 59% of the game. I will take a closer look at that once my betting season starts again

[tyKiwanuka]

In my opinion, the higher probability for goals simply results from the fact that the opposing team can now build up attacks more easily and thus inevitably have more chances to score goals.

Yes, but it's not that much easier I think. If we look at the Bordeaux - Nantes match, Zerkane got red card and Bordeaux didn't make any substitution right away. They re-organized themselves like this:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/match/x42Vi5GG/#lineups;1

So not a lot of changes, if a) Bordeaux takes more defensive approach and b) Hwang/Maja run a bit more. For sure Nantes will have more posession and can get more easily in Bordeaux's half, but once arrived there, it's basically the same as with 11 vs 11 (also considering Bordeaux being kind of extra-motivated, team spirit increased etc.). Now these two teams are evenly matched and it's a way different ball game, if a bad team receives a red card against a superior team.

So when there is a general stat that the scoring intensity increases by 5/4, this is/was not the case for Nantes, it was way less imo, if at all. But this has to be judged on an individual basis and by following the game.

This is very simplified then again, because it doesn't take into account the circumstances when the red card happened, team strenghts etc. Maybe in those 59% lost games, in 60% of the cases this team was already pre-match underdog and down 0-1 when the red card happened

[KTChampions]

~
I kind of agree about the moving way too much after a red card but I think it's only because there's still a lot of time left. Now i'm interested to see how the odds would look like if the red card was given in the 50-80th minute.

It seems to me that after the 80th minute the chances are almost equal: if a team that plays in the majority goes ahead en masse, then it has a chance to miss the counterattack and lose the match. I can say that the situation is equal here.
As for the earlier stages, the advantage of the team playing in the majority is obvious - it is harder to defend (especially in the minority), so you can just wait until the opponent is physically exhausted.

[slaman29]

I've also found very good value in a GOOD team getting a red card. But this depends still a lot on the team itself and how they play and WHO gets the red card. Barca (my team) got a red card almost every other game for the opening of the season I remember, and the odds for them to either win or keep the lead after the red card all got good value, which would win for almost every option.

But like you said, changes the dynamic too much and only worth betting IF you know and watch the game and know how well they play after.

[FontSeli]

~

Red cards certainly have an impact on the team because it not only weakens it due to the absence of a player, but also has a moral impact if there are doubts about the fairness of the punishment. Sometimes such doubts can lead to much more serious consequences.
I will never forget a memorable match for me at the 2006 world Cup, when the Netherlands played Portugal in the 1/8 final. At that time, 4 red cards and 16 yellow cards were shown in one match. This is a great example of a match when teams start to foul each other and the heat gradually increases. In this match played primarily psychology and excellent football players turned into boys who want to avenge each other for fouls. I don't remember a single match that I was more disgusted to watch.

[swogerino]

I think the red cards only impacts small teams which are lacking a winning mentality.I have seen so many games where big teams have been hit by one or even two red cards and they have still managed to win the game or in the worst case to not lose it by drawing to the other team.

However in small teams red cards can be devastating and can be the cause for a huge loss with a big number of goals difference.

[Lakai01]

I think the red cards only impacts small teams which are lacking a winning mentality.I have seen so many games where big teams have been hit by one or even two red cards and they have still managed to win the game or in the worst case to not lose it by drawing to the other team.

I think it depends very much on the game situation what effect a red card has. If Manchester United play against a third division team in the FA Cup, a red card on the Manchester side will not make much difference.
But if you look at yesterday's Champions League final Bayern vs. PSG, for example, a red card could have had devastating consequences for any of the teams.
At this level, even the smallest mistake can be decisive. A permanent weakening of a team by a red card, however, puts them in a serious predicament against equal teams

[tyKiwanuka]

England

No red cards in first round, but second round had 4.

Everton - WBA
Red card: WBA in 45th minute, score 2-1
Final score: 5-2

WBA managed to score the equalizer after the red card at the beginning of second half, but 3 goals inside 12 minutes sealed the win for Everton. Would have been worth to lay Everton after the red card and trade out after 2-2.


Newcastle - Brighton
Red card: Brighton in 89th minute, score 0-3
Final score: 0-3

No impact since in the closing stages of an already decided game.


Chelsea - Liverpool
Red Card: Chelsea 45th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 0-2

Liverpool took advantage nicely of the strenghts in numbers and scored twice directly after half-time. Chelsea managed to get a penalty later, but missed it.


Aston Villa - Sheffield United
Red card: Sheffield in 12th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 1-0

Sheffield got a penalty to take the lead one man down, but missed it. Aston Villa then took the lead in second half and defended it till the final whistle.

Spain

No red cards in round 2 and just one in round 1.

Eibar - Celta Vigo
Red Card: Eibar in 87th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 0-0

Red card came too late to have any impact.

Italy

Just one red card.

Milan - Bologna
Red Card: Bologna in 88th minute, score 2-0
Final Score: 2-0

Again a late red card with no impact.


Germany

No red cards in first round.


Not very telling so far since 50% of the red cards were late. In the games where they were early-ish, two teams did good and would have given a trade profit (lets assume Sheffield normally does not miss the penalty ).

[Yogee]

A red card changes the momentum of the game. It affects both teams. For instance, a team who is prepared to defend and counter-attack at the beginning, with a 4-5-1 formation, will have to change it up to a 4-4-2 or to other more offensive formation if the other team is reduced to 10-man. The goal suddenly shifts from getting a clean sheet to winning the game so the pressure to score builds up. I've watched interviews from the team with complete players and they sometimes say it threw them off.

I think you were spot on when you said the impact depends on the time it was given and the score. A team who is 4-0 up by half time and received a red card at the start of the 2nd half would likely end up winning or getting a draw at least.

[leea-1334]

I also think there is good value in a red carded team to go and win it, but you have to be able to watch live. Red Card for an attacking team is ok for me (depending also who got red carded) and then defending team could be tempted to try and change to win. We have seen many teams now win with 10 or even 9 men,,,

[tyKiwanuka]

I also think there is good value in a red carded team to go and win it, (...)

Yep, I think so too (and thats why I created this thread to monitor things and have some discussion going on to get some input). The problem with betting on a red-carded team to win is that it might take some time to pay off and most people don't have the stamina, get frustrated quickly and quit. You will play high-ish odds and you will see lots of money going down the drain at first, before you hit on some of these odds.

I think it's better for the start to go with the result not changing after a red card, i.e. a draw stays a draw at FT, maybe from 1-1 to 2-2, or some handicaps like +1.5 for the remainder of the game, double chances, dnb. As always you would have to be cautious in choosing the right spots/games and not jump into any game that sees a red card. And trading is better than punting here imo, always take at least your initial liability out when things are going your way, until you mastered this special situation in a football match.

[aesma]

The rules are unlikely to change but I wonder how football would be if instead of yellow and reds (or on top of them) there was a penalty box instead. The yellow and red could be kept for the gravest offenses, but for smaller ones, instead of a yellow or nothing (because there is nothing in between) you could lose the player for some minutes.

[leea-1334]

Very nice stats you shared a few posts earlier,,, now it would be extremely interesting to take note of all the bookie odds at the start of the match, and how they changed as soon as the red card was made. For sure it makes odds go higher for some teams in a draw situation, but if Spurs had a red card, I would bet on them anyway to win. Same as City and Liverpool, MAdrid and Barcelona. These teams seem to get stronger and are fit enough to cover more field.

[tyKiwanuka]

(...) now it would be extremely interesting to take note of all the bookie odds at the start of the match, and how they changed as soon as the red card was made.

Yes, this is of course the most important data. You can get that data from Betfair, but I don't have an account there no more to scrape it (and I would probably be too dumb anyway ). I will try to record the odds for those matches which I follow live, but I can't follow them all. But we can maybe make a team effort out of it, where users post the odds in here, after a red card was given - and probably the odds right before the card as well. So everyone feel free to contribute Pre-match odds are easy go get btw at oddsportal or other odds comparison sites, but we need the inplay ones.

It will always follow the same pattern more or less, so once you/we have a big enough sample size, you can just calculate the odds yourself and will already see, if the market gives away some value.