Bitcoin 200 week Moving Average (MA)

[DeathAngel]

We should start to deviate upwards, away from the 200 week MA. It may take another month or two but expect buying pressure to arrive before New Year & we’ll perhaps see a new yearly high.

[1714228458]

1714228458

[thecodebear]

Yeah the 200W MA is what Bitcoin bounces off of in bear markets. BTC won't be going near that again until after the next peak and crash. So back to 200W MA in like 3 years maybe.

As always, the long term Bitcoin chart looks great. The bull market is continuing to slowly heat up. The future looks very bright for continued mass adoption of bitcoin in the coming years.

[adaseb]

You can't tell from the photo shown in the first post, but when BTC was crashing during the Corona Panic it actually went below and closed below on the daily chart below the 200 WMA. It also closed slightly below (almost at) on the weekly chart. So it looks like you might of missed buying it back in March 2020 however if you had an order to buy at the 200 WMA you would of gotten a while.

Only issue is where your stop was placed. I took an order when it touched the 200 WMA but I had to extend my stop, and was almost stopped out. However luckily it was a soft stop and very quickly it rallied away from my stop. However unless you were live trading that day, it seemed very scary to buy it then. Most people would of chickened out to tell you the truth.

[exstasie]

You can't tell from the photo shown in the first post, but when BTC was crashing during the Corona Panic it actually went below and closed below on the daily chart below the 200 WMA. It also closed slightly below (almost at) on the weekly chart. So it looks like you might of missed buying it back in March 2020 however if you had an order to buy at the 200 WMA you would of gotten a while.

Only issue is where your stop was placed. I took an order when it touched the 200 WMA but I had to extend my stop, and was almost stopped out. However luckily it was a soft stop and very quickly it rallied away from my stop. However unless you were live trading that day, it seemed very scary to buy it then. Most people would of chickened out to tell you the truth.

I'm not big on catching falling knives like that, but when I do it, I don't use stop losses. It would take a weekly candle close, and possibly 2, to confirm failure of the 200-week MA. Therefore, selling (stop lossing) into the high volatility panic on lower time frames like the daily seems arbitrary, doesn't it? Seems like an easy way to lose a great position. I figure if you want a low risk entry, you probably don't want to catch the knife at all.

[Fortify]

It's nice to see bitcoin trending up again and we could be heading towards a second peak for this cryptocurrency. Considering it has a fixed cap of 21 million, has permeated into popular mainstream culture and is more accessible to the general public than every - it seems inevitable for it to keep increasing in value, similar to the history of gold. Time to stock up before the rush

[thecodebear]

It's nice to see bitcoin trending up again and we could be heading towards a second peak for this cryptocurrency. Considering it has a fixed cap of 21 million, has permeated into popular mainstream culture and is more accessible to the general public than every - it seems inevitable for it to keep increasing in value, similar to the history of gold. Time to stock up before the rush

time to stock up before the rush was back in winter '19
and again at the end of '19
and again in March '20

but yeah if people didn't stock up on all those great opportunities they'll still make a boatload of money the next couple years (or longer) by stocking up now!

Between companies starting to move some of their treasury reserves to Bitcoin, Grayscale exploding recently and showing that institutional investment in Bitcoin (though still tiny) is continuing grow faster and faster, and Paypal being the first like really major player with an enormous amount of users to add Bitcoin to its platform, yeah its a good time to be in Bitcoin!



As for the 200W MA, to me there's not much point in looking at it right now. As a metric it is long enough so that it is always heading upwards, but it only really is useful for finding about where the bottom of the market will be during a bear market (basically anytime the price is near the 200W MA you should be throwing everything you have into Bitcoin). So it'll become real useful for buying the bottom in a few years, but for now it doesn't really tell us anything. Really the 100W MA is like the sign post to watch out for, if price falls significantly below that it is time to buy and buy hard, and then 200W MA acts as the floor. The Covid crash briefly broke through the 200W MA but that was a giant all-market panic sell, which is different than a normal bitcoin-related crash, and the price quickly sprung back above that indicator anyways. Comparing the 100W and 200W MA's right now it looks similar to mid-2016, which feels about right when you consider this market cycle is moving slower than the last and so you can stretch out the rest of the build-up phase from mid 2016 - spring 2017 to Fall 2020 - maybe end of 2021 before things start getting real exciting again.

[exstasie]

As for the 200W MA, to me there's not much point in looking at it right now. As a metric it is long enough so that it is always heading upwards, but it only really is useful for finding about where the bottom of the market will be during a bear market (basically anytime the price is near the 200W MA you should be throwing everything you have into Bitcoin).

I generally agree but it's good to remember that bear markets take different shapes and forms. The 2014-2015 cycle was a sharp price correction followed by accumulation at the bottom. The 2018+ cycle was (or has been) much more of a sideways correction.

Although I think it's getting unlikely at this point, I still don't want to rule out one more test of the 200-week MA, especially while we're still below the 2019 highs, and especially if the run-up to new ATHs does take longer than in 2016.

[Febo]

time to stock up before the rush was back in winter '19
and again at the end of '19
and again in March '20

but yeah if people didn't stock up on all those great opportunities they'll still make a boatload of money the next couple years (or longer) by stocking up now!

Until Bitcoin reach $20k is just Buy buy buy. Once it reach $20k a time fro hold start. Few month latter when Bitcoin start going exponentially it is time to look around what to spend it on. These are the 3 phases. Buy, hold, spend.

[Yaunfitda]

time to stock up before the rush was back in winter '19
and again at the end of '19
and again in March '20

but yeah if people didn't stock up on all those great opportunities they'll still make a boatload of money the next couple years (or longer) by stocking up now!

Until Bitcoin reach $20k is just Buy buy buy. Once it reach $20k a time fro hold start. Few month latter when Bitcoin start going exponentially it is time to look around what to spend it on. These are the 3 phases. Buy, hold, spend.

Yes, this is a very old strategy, but since we witnessed the last great all time high and following the bear market, one should put the "buy and hold" as the best strategy in crypto specially after it has been burst in 2017, specially 2018, which is the best start to accumulate and wait till the next bubble phase happen again. And I partly agree with @exstasie  said, this bull run might take a different shape and form, and it will take longer as compare to the previous runs, 2016 accumulation and 2017 all time high.