Alrighty, well I'm registered and have an alarm set. Now to try and get to sleep. See everyone at the tables in a few hours, should be a good final qualifier. Real close race on the final 2 spots for sure. I'll have the spreadsheet updated and the chip allocations fixed up tonight when I'm back at work after the game.
I just ran by numbers and found that I still got a chance to make to the championship! First 6 players have already made to the finals. 7th is almost confirmed as well. That leaves seven players contesting for the last 2 spots. Efialtis and 1r0n1c stated earlier that they won't be playing the upcoming qualifier which leaves only 4 players fighting for the spot. Now considering that 15 players will play tonight's game, here is my chances to make to the finals:
Probability of winning the qualifier = 6.67%. If won, probability of making to the championship = 55.621%. Net Probability = 3.70%
Probability of coming second in the qualifier = 6.67%. If second, probability of making to the championship = 40.828%. Net Probability = 2.723%
Probability of coming third in the qualifier = 6.67%. If third, probability of making to the championship = 26.036%. Net Probability = 1.7365%
There is also a probability to make to the championship if I come 4th - 7th but chances are below 1% so I won't consider those.
Hence, the total probability of me making to the championship is 8.1635% (1 in 12 chance). Worth an effort in my opinion, what do you say guys?
PS any tips are welcome to help me keep the stream going but not begging anyone OK.
xxx
Globb0
Hey Globb0,
Do you accept btc? I checked your channel last night but Twitch charges 40% commission on 'Bits', not worthy! Also, I don't wanna tip via PayPal due to privacy reasons. If possible, add your btc address on the channel.
I'll be forced to sit out tonight guys, best of luck to you all! (Still paid my fee so no worries on that).
This further increases by probability.
Jk aside, you will be missed.