What happens to Bitcoin in the long term?

[enterprevic2]

Question regarding the viability of bitcoin in the long term. From my understanding, the security of bitcoin comes from miners who verify the blockchain. What happens when there is so much halving that the reward for mining bitcoin is extremely low and the cost of verifying the blockchain for the miners exceeds the reward of their bitcoin?

[NeuroticFish]

1. The miners also earn from transaction fees and that can also get pretty big. Last block came with 1.5 BTC also in fees. https://sochain.com/block/BTC/645584
2. The miners unhappy with their earnings can stop and this will make the difficulty (and mining cost) drop for the remaining miners.

This together with the rising price of bitcoin should hopefully get to good "middle point" where everyone will be happy.
There's still a lot of time until then.

[ChrisPop]

1. The miners also earn from transaction fees and that can also get pretty big. Last block came with 1.5 BTC also in fees. https://sochain.com/block/BTC/645584
2. The miners unhappy with their earnings can stop and this will make the difficulty (and mining cost) drop for the remaining miners.

This together with the rising price of bitcoin should hopefully get to good "middle point" where everyone will be happy.
There's still a lot of time until then.

This ^^

Satoshi Nakamoto really thought about everything when he produced this crypto currency and look where we are standing now. 11 years and running strong. Every year that passes is more assurance for possible users and investors that this asset is here to stay.

[odolvlobo]

Question regarding the viability of bitcoin in the long term. From my understanding, the security of bitcoin comes from miners who verify the blockchain. What happens when there is so much halving that the reward for mining bitcoin is extremely low and the cost of verifying the blockchain for the miners exceeds the reward of their bitcoin?

The economics of Bitcoin mining ensure that there will always be miners that benefit from mining as long as there are transactions paying fees, regardless of the value of a bitcoin.

However, the security of Bitcoin against a 51% attack depends on the value of the mining revenue. If the value of the fees are low, then the security will be low. The real question to answer is then, how low is too low?

[Charles-Tim]

What happens when there is so much halving that the reward for mining bitcoin is extremely low and the cost of verifying the blockchain for the miners exceeds the reward of their bitcoin?

I do not think this is possible. Reasons:

1. Bitcoin is a deflationary currency, decreasing supply but increasing demand.

2. If bitcoin mining and transaction fee is not favouring today, it will favour tomorrow because bitcoin price is volatile. This encourages miners. 

[hatshepsut93]

However, the security of Bitcoin against a 51% attack depends on the value of the mining revenue. If the value of the fees are low, then the security will be low. The real question to answer is then, how low is too low?

If security will be low, 51% attacks would be cheaper to execute, and as the result all users will require more confirmations for transactions. If right now 1-3 confirmations are sufficient for nearly all uses, in this theoretical future with low security 10+ transactions would be the standard. that's ~2 hour wait, which can be pretty bad for some uses, but if by that time LN would be widely adopted, it shouldn't be too big of a problem. So, maybe Bitcoin could guarantee enough security for most purposes with transaction fees alone.

[dansus021]

1. The miners also earn from transaction fees and that can also get pretty big. Last block came with 1.5 BTC also in fees. https://sochain.com/block/BTC/645584
2. The miners unhappy with their earnings can stop and this will make the difficulty (and mining cost) drop for the remaining miners.

This together with the rising price of bitcoin should hopefully get to good "middle point" where everyone will be happy.
There's still a lot of time until then.

yes i aggree and maybe the community will try new consensus like using PoS or Masternode or something new
and in my opinion people will start considering using other coin or just fork the bitcoin if this happen

[NavI_027]

and in my opinion people will start considering using other coin or just fork the bitcoin if this happen

Most probably. They will choose a better coin with better features especially those influential (like doge and ltc), have larger supply, better security (like Monero) and lower transaction fee (like EOS and TRON). Regarding bitcoin forks, I don't think creating another one will not boom since there are already hundreds existing. Adding another one would be pointless since the attention of the crowd are only in few particularly to btc cash.

Anyway, the race to dethrone btc is still far away. So OP stop overthinking, I guarantee you that it will be valuable for the next century at least .

[Darker45]

However, the security of Bitcoin against a 51% attack depends on the value of the mining revenue. If the value of the fees are low, then the security will be low. The real question to answer is then, how low is too low?

If security will be low, 51% attacks would be cheaper to execute, and as the result all users will require more confirmations for transactions. If right now 1-3 confirmations are sufficient for nearly all uses, in this theoretical future with low security 10+ transactions would be the standard. that's ~2 hour wait, which can be pretty bad for some uses, but if by that time LN would be widely adopted, it shouldn't be too big of a problem. So, maybe Bitcoin could guarantee enough security for most purposes with transaction fees alone.

However, isn't it that LN is also one significant reason for miners to have a lower transaction fee revenue? As LN transactions are off-chain transactions the fees would instead go to LN nodes rather than to Bitcoin miners. What is left for the miners are only the fees paid upon the opening and closing of LN channels.

Accordingly, "miner revenue from transaction fees with active use of LN is lower than today’s levels until a threshold of 20 million LN users, each transacting 10 times/day, is breached."^[1]

[1] https://medium.com/@matteoleibowitz/bitcoin-disinflating-to-death-b4ba7b691969

[pooya87]

when bitcoin started miners were receiving 50 bitcoins for every block they were finding and that was worth nothing at first ($0) and eventually after 4 years it reached about $100-$150 per block.
today the miners are getting paid 6.25 bitcoins for every block they find and that is worth $71000+
in other words the reward has already decreased 87.5% while the amount of money they are earning has increased 71000%.

as bitcoin continues growing, its price will continue rising. there is also a lot of improvement in mining hardware (AKA ASICs) where they become more efficient and less costly which means hashrate will grow even if price stayed the same.

[smyslov]

Regarding bitcoin forks, I don't think creating another one will not boom since there are already hundreds existing. Adding another one would be pointless since the attention of the crowd are only in few particularly to btc cash.

Anyway, the race to dethrone btc is still far away. So OP stop overthinking, I guarantee you that it will be valuable for the next century at least .

We don't need any more forks even if the one creating is very popular in the Crypto community, we already have lot of it now, investors are much into Bitcoin now and the prove is the stat in how dominant Bitcoin is, and I don't see these forks creating a big threat to Bitcoin the nearest Bitcoin competitor right now is Ethereum, thought they gap is still wide.

[slapper]

Question regarding the viability of bitcoin in the long term. From my understanding, the security of bitcoin comes from miners who verify the blockchain. What happens when there is so much halving that the reward for mining bitcoin is extremely low and the cost of verifying the blockchain for the miners exceeds the reward of their bitcoin?

Miners still receive Bitcoin from transaction fees. And if they are not happy with their earning, they can simply stop mining which makes the diff decreasing. Satoshi Nakamoto has already thought about this issue and thats why bitcoin has been trusted for many years like that. Currently, the team behind bitcoin blockchain also makes a lot of changes in order to make bitcoin becomes even stronger and suitable for all the people. Therefore, nothing needs to be worried about. Just chill with your coin and hold them

[Wexnident]

There are a lot of miners right now, and even if they leave, the rest that was left out would have a much easier time on receiving transaction fees as well as the rewards they'd get, thereby lessening the number of resources you'd actually need to spend, making their expenses a lot less. Miners leaving basically equals out the expenses and the rewards of the leftover miners, unless they're crazy and accept the losses they'd take from mining BTC. Still, a long time before that happens imo though, especially with how BTC price would most likely grow more than compared to what it is right now.

Plus, let's not even mention how mining rigs are continuously improving themselves, improving their efficiency in the future upgrades. We still have more than a decade to go in mining, so you can expect that all miners would plan to quit and leave the crypto mining scene.

[The Cryptovator]

I am not worried about mining rewards. Have you even think that before 5 years what was the bitcoin price? Of course, it was very low compared with the current price. So we can expect an appropriate price even the end of the block rewards. Still, there will be the existence of transaction fees which will enough to cover mining cost and miners will in profit more than now IMO. A similar topic has been discussed many times, so please use the search button to know more details about it.

[bitcoinst]

As history shows, miners will mine. When, for example, the price of bitcoin fell to 3000, many miners were faced with a choice whether to continue mining at a loss or stop it.
Many of them said they intend to close their large farms. Nevertheless, most of them continued to mine, because if they did not do it, others would.

[Lorence.xD]

As history shows, miners will mine. When, for example, the price of bitcoin fell to 3000, many miners were faced with a choice whether to continue mining at a loss or stop it.
Many of them said they intend to close their large farms. Nevertheless, most of them continued to mine, because if they did not do it, others would.

Exactly, miners will be around as long as there are still blocks to be mined, i do think that the number of miners quitting and aspiring miners is not balanced or the former undermining the latter, it is the opposite in my opinion. I think the long term goal for bitcoin does not entirely involve miners, the global adoption could be the long game or other impressive things that are still waiting to be discovered.

[meanwords]

However, isn't it that LN is also one significant reason for miners to have a lower transaction fee revenue? As LN transactions are off-chain transactions the fees would instead go to LN nodes rather than to Bitcoin miners. What is left for the miners are only the fees paid upon the opening and closing of LN channels.

Accordingly, "miner revenue from transaction fees with active use of LN is lower than today’s levels until a threshold of 20 million LN users, each transacting 10 times/day, is breached."^[1]

[1] https://medium.com/@matteoleibowitz/bitcoin-disinflating-to-death-b4ba7b691969

Then that means we just have to bypass that 20 million users even further. Even with small fees, it's still significant if fees pile up to the point that it's profitable to the miners. Let's also remember that Bitcoin won't be staying at it's current price anyway. Who knows, we might see Bitcoin at around $100,000 someday which will boost miner's profit even if it's just fees.

[BITCOIN4X]

I think the long term goal for bitcoin does not entirely involve miners, the global adoption could be the long game or other impressive things that are still waiting to be discovered.

There are no transaction then no bitcoin are mined. I believe that as long as bitcoin is an asset that has value, during it have a miner.
I think you are mistaken in saying that bitcoin long term goal doesnt fully involve miner. In general, every bitcoin transaction you send or receive will always involve miner. If bitcoin long term goal is adoption, then there must also be miner to process every bitcoin transaction.

[hatshepsut93]

However, isn't it that LN is also one significant reason for miners to have a lower transaction fee revenue? As LN transactions are off-chain transactions the fees would instead go to LN nodes rather than to Bitcoin miners. What is left for the miners are only the fees paid upon the opening and closing of LN channels.

Accordingly, "miner revenue from transaction fees with active use of LN is lower than today’s levels until a threshold of 20 million LN users, each transacting 10 times/day, is breached."^[1]

[1] https://medium.com/@matteoleibowitz/bitcoin-disinflating-to-death-b4ba7b691969

Medium articles by some no-name guys aren't the best source of information.

LN has limitations to the size of transactions, and not everyone would want to put every single one of their transactions on LN, so there will always be demand for on-chain transactions. Even now we have huge congestions from time to time, and we aren't even close to mass adoption. So, I wouldn't worry that there will be not enough transactions on chain to create profitable enough fees for miners.

[GreatArkansas]

There are no transaction then no bitcoin are mined. I believe that as long as bitcoin is an asset that has value, during it have a miner.
I think you are mistaken in saying that bitcoin long term goal doesnt fully involve miner.
(....)

Explained very straightforward, good job.
Bitcoin really invented a perfect way, just like this. We all know that Bitcoin will stay, and miner will be there.
Even lot of people are afraid before that miners will stop mining Bitcoin because the price of Bitcoin really dumped and the upcoming block halvings are still there. But we don't have choice and we can't stop Bitcoin, it is really the nature of Bitcoin.