possible eth diff drop?

[darkdude]

With the size of the dag reaching 4gb do people think that say by Nov/Dec we should expect an observed drop in eth diff with the removal of that hash rate?

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[philipma1957]

With the size of the dag reaching 4gb do people think that say by Nov/Dec we should expect an observed drop in eth diff with the removal of that hash rate?

Yes, but. with the arrival of the new Nvidia series end of sept.  Rate will move upwards all of oct.

My guess is up 10-15 % from now till Nov. Then a 20% drop in Nov.

Note I said guess.

[Metroid]

Any hashrate that a 4gb gpu has at the moment will be replaced by new gpus once 4gb are done for, there is no margin of error in that regard. So do not buy 8gb gpus thinking profitability will be higher later on once 4gb gpus are done for, if profitability rises then will be just for few hours to few days at maximum.

[adaseb]

From what I read, HiveOS keeps some statistics of the GPUs that are mining under their software and they said that around 50% of ETH mining GPUs are 4GB. So its possible that 50% of the hashrate can drop.

However like a few comments above, obviously there are faster and faster GPUs coming out recently and most likely the hashrate will grow alot before the 4GB become obsolete and might end up being a 15-20% only in terms of hashrate.

[dagarair]

There will be a drop, I doubt 50% but 20-30 over the next coming months is not out of the question.  There are not as many new guys coming on as before thus newer cards like 5700 etc are not replace 4g cards at the same speed or 50% even of that speed.  That being said, Metroid is right about people running out and buying cards expecting a big payday, if you don't already have them then yeah you prob shouldn't go out and buy a crap ton of them as the cost of cards are astronomical.  The transaction fees are where it's at right now with all the Defi stuff flying around.  Gas fees are doubling profits.

[dikobraz123]

The key factor in possible diff drop is ETH price. If the price of the ETH surge, people will jump on new GPU-s - remember 2017 - there was a shortage of GPU-s.

[arielbit]

comparing to 4gb cards:

5700/xt is  x2 hashrate

3080 is x3 to x4 hashrate


don't forget the 1080ti miners that will 2x hash rate by upgrading or just plainly adding 3080 to their farms.

so let's assume that new cards that will mine (x2.5 to x3 hash rate at average). it takes just 1 new card to replace 2.5 to 3 old 4gb cards.

another thing is electricity, people are getting more hash per watt with newer tech, i think profits will go down if you don't upgrade.

if ETH go down in price then we all scratch our heads LOL 

[philipma1957]

so far i got from aug 1 to sept 14 with the good numbers that is about 44 days.

I expect to get at least sept and part of october. so maybe 75 days of very good mining numbers.

after that i do not look for much.

[niksdt101]

There will be a drop, I doubt 50% but 20-30 over the next coming months is not out of the question.  There are not as many new guys coming on as before thus newer cards like 5700 etc are not replace 4g cards at the same speed or 50% even of that speed.  That being said, Metroid is right about people running out and buying cards expecting a big payday, if you don't already have them then yeah you prob shouldn't go out and buy a crap ton of them as the cost of cards are astronomical.  The transaction fees are where it's at right now with all the Defi stuff flying around.  Gas fees are doubling profits.

Nvidia 30XX Series and AMD Big Navi are ready to be launched and both of them will pack 2x-4x minimum in hash rate compared to the current mining cards. So if at all the 4GB miners stop , i guess new cards will take over.

[john1010]

it's possible this coming October or November, because most of the miner are using RX 570 4gb cards which is become unable to mine ethereum because of dag creation in digging ethereum who will reach 4gb dag, this event will free some of the room in mining eth, now if this nvidia card will soon become available and the other latest cards, sooner or later the diff will be higher than before.