Possible Patterns of Recovery

[Wind_FURY]

Predicting something now is hard to expect on especially if we really don't know how the government will react after a vaccine is created. For sure they would re-organize their budget allocation as well as think about where they would focus on and if they have enough money in that area.

I believe the state they would, INCREASE taxes, THEN re-organize the national budget, with some bad-actors planning how to get some of the money, WHILE getting all of the credit for "saving the economy".

[justdimin]

There are places that do show wrong numbers as well on the pandemic death. I saw a paper with proof online that some person put his grandpa into ICU because his grandpa had corona and he waited for 3 days for him to recover, on third day morning his grandpas results came back negative and he no longer had corona which made him happy but then they told him his grandpa passed away and on official paper it looks like he died from pneumonia so they basically faked his death as something other than corona.

If the dude didn't proved this with papers and results and dates I wouldn't believe him but it really happened. So, that means pandemic is not going away, it is still here and that means recovery may not be as quick as people imagined it would be, we could still be going down once again.

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

There are places that do show wrong numbers as well on the pandemic death. I saw a paper with proof online that some person put his grandpa into ICU because his grandpa had corona and he waited for 3 days for him to recover, on third day morning his grandpas results came back negative and he no longer had corona which made him happy but then they told him his grandpa passed away and on official paper it looks like he died from pneumonia so they basically faked his death as something other than corona.

If the dude didn't proved this with papers and results and dates I wouldn't believe him but it really happened. So, that means pandemic is not going away, it is still here and that means recovery may not be as quick as people imagined it would be, we could still be going down once again.

I believe that the COVID-19 or the coronavirus patients are not that easy to cure or to recover because I also know one of our family friend's father just recently past away due to COVID-19. But his father was recovered and got home from the hospital, though his father still passed away after a week from the virus. So it might be true that it is not that easy to remove this virus and our economy until there is no 100% vaccine.

[Dorodha]

It is very difficult to find possible patterns of recovery it is not possible to cure completely until I agree with the vaccine. Coronavirus is recurring in patients many times when the virus is positive when there is no virus many people are getting frustrated. Only vaccines can cure it no one understands the pattern of the epidemic many countries in the world are trying but no one has succeeded.

[ultrloa]

There are places that do show wrong numbers as well on the pandemic death. I saw a paper with proof online that some person put his grandpa into ICU because his grandpa had corona and he waited for 3 days for him to recover, on third day morning his grandpas results came back negative and he no longer had corona which made him happy but then they told him his grandpa passed away and on official paper it looks like he died from pneumonia so they basically faked his death as something other than corona.

If the dude didn't proved this with papers and results and dates I wouldn't believe him but it really happened. So, that means pandemic is not going away, it is still here and that means recovery may not be as quick as people imagined it would be, we could still be going down once again.

I believe that the COVID-19 or the coronavirus patients are not that easy to cure or to recover because I also know one of our family friend's father just recently past away due to COVID-19. But his father was recovered and got home from the hospital, though his father still passed away after a week from the virus. So it might be true that it is not that easy to remove this virus and our economy until there is no 100% vaccine.

Maybe the father of your friend have an existing illness and the virus made it worse that's why he became a casualty of this disease. Many country tried and few of them became successful but for countries who are in 3rd world category struggling so much much on this incidents, But I really think we are close to have a vaccine and everything will back to normal and economy will be revive once the research companies will mass produce and released their successful product.

[semobo]

We are not safe yet from the virus, some countries already facing the second wave at unstoppable rate and in near future lot of countries will go into complete lockdown for the second time which means there will be another crash in the economic system so I guess we will have W shaped recovery.

[ethereumhunter]

There are places that do show wrong numbers as well on the pandemic death. I saw a paper with proof online that some person put his grandpa into ICU because his grandpa had corona and he waited for 3 days for him to recover, on third day morning his grandpas results came back negative and he no longer had corona which made him happy but then they told him his grandpa passed away and on official paper it looks like he died from pneumonia so they basically faked his death as something other than corona.

If the dude didn't proved this with papers and results and dates I wouldn't believe him but it really happened. So, that means pandemic is not going away, it is still here and that means recovery may not be as quick as people imagined it would be, we could still be going down once again.

I believe that the COVID-19 or the coronavirus patients are not that easy to cure or to recover because I also know one of our family friend's father just recently past away due to COVID-19. But his father was recovered and got home from the hospital, though his father still passed away after a week from the virus. So it might be true that it is not that easy to remove this virus and our economy until there is no 100% vaccine.

Maybe the father of your friend have an existing illness and the virus made it worse that's why he became a casualty of this disease. Many country tried and few of them became successful but for countries who are in 3rd world category struggling so much much on this incidents, But I really think we are close to have a vaccine and everything will back to normal and economy will be revive once the research companies will mass produce and released their successful product.

I heard it is difficult to survive from the virus if we are infected, but that will depend on how good the hospital to handle the patient. If the hospital has enough doctors and nurses and a good infrastructure to handle the patient, it will be no problem for them to help them. We can hope that people who infect the virus can survive in hard situations while the vaccine still on the way to be produced.

[fiulpro]

Hard truth is , most of the countries were already in a crisis way before the pandemic begin, the underdeveloped and the developing countries now due to this pandemic I do believe we will have a terrible condition there.

Other than that it will depend how well the country faces this situation, for most countries despite them having all the resources , the people are not very well following the rules and regulations. Therefore they have a continuous w shaped curve , which won't improve until and unless the government+people do something about it.

But am more concerned about the developing and the underdeveloped countries.

They might never show an upward growth for a considerable amount of time.

[abhiseshakana]

Hard truth is , most of the countries were already in a crisis way before the pandemic begin, the underdeveloped and the developing countries now due to this pandemic I do believe we will have a terrible condition there.

Other than that it will depend how well the country faces this situation, for most countries despite them having all the resources , the people are not very well following the rules and regulations. Therefore they have a continuous w shaped curve , which won't improve until and unless the government+people do something about it.

But am more concerned about the developing and the underdeveloped countries.

They might never show an upward growth for a considerable amount of time.

Before the pandemic, many countries had experienced an economic downturn due to the trade war between America and China, there were even several countries that had entered a recession path. So when a pandemic storm hit it caused even more severe conditions. What the government can do now is to inform the public about the real conditions and not to give empty hopes so that individual citizens will take wise steps.

Actually, many people still have money but they are afraid to invest, they are afraid to expand and choose to keep silent about their respective safety, besides that the vaccines that are just waiting for distribution permits from WHO also get many questions about the effectiveness which is periodic and the potential for vaccines will actually making the virus even wilder.

[Shasha80]

Thank you for sharing very important information, it turns out that there are many possible patterns of recovery that can occur.
All I know so far is only U-shaped and V-shaped curved, the rest I just heard about them. It is possible that my country is very
compatible with U-shaped patterns, because indeed most countries use U-shaped patterns. Recovery is very difficult, however,
as long as a vaccine has not been found. Therefore, nowadays it is better for every country to focus on finding a vaccine.
So that the spread of the corona virus can really be stopped and the economy can recover immediately.

[AniviaBtc]

I just hope it doesn't hit that bad again! This time the economy might sink to the lowest. Inflation is not a problem anymore. I mean the governments all around the world printed shit load already lol. Let's hope for the best!

Most of us are really dreaming about the V-shaped recovery because we want a faster economic recovery as soon as possible but in reality, it is really hard to achieve that due to some factors that can make it hard to do. The U-shaped recovery is the only thing that we can do right now, not that immediate enough but it can show us some improvements from time to time. We just need to be patient and wait for the government's action towards this economic crisis, if some other countries can do it like New Zealand and Vietnam, we also probably can do it.

[bitgolden]

I guess if the virus is not fixed at all the recovery will not happen but at the same time if we can't recover in economy we can't fix the pandemic neither.

I know that people are not certain about how economy is related to virus but it is not related to virus directly, it is related to health and if you do not have any money you will not be healthy neither, look at USA for example they are a nation that has one of the worst healthcares in the world and they still bankrupt and they die, there are people who die there because they couldn't get a simple insulin medicine which is basically free everywhere else, so that means if your economy sucks like them, you will die.

When people die and economy is in shambles you end up with more people dying from virus as well because they are not careful and just try to focus on surviving and working for it.

[Maroons]

I just hope it doesn't hit that bad again! This time the economy might sink to the lowest. Inflation is not a problem anymore. I mean the governments all around the world printed shit load already lol. Let's hope for the best!

Most of us are really dreaming about the V-shaped recovery because we want a faster economic recovery as soon as possible but in reality, it is really hard to achieve that due to some factors that can make it hard to do. The U-shaped recovery is the only thing that we can do right now, not that immediate enough but it can show us some improvements from time to time. We just need to be patient and wait for the government's action towards this economic crisis, if some other countries can do it like New Zealand and Vietnam, we also probably can do it.

I think the L-shaped is much more realistic recovery in general because U-shape compared to L-shape it is more faster recovery but let's be honest even 1st world countries are having hard time handling the virus and to add why L-shape is the more possible outcome of recovery is because we can't know if all citizens will follow what the government directs us to do, so it is a process of making people follow the rules given by the government to lessen the transmission and achieve the fastest recovery as possible, the countries that already won against the virus have organized and well disciplined citizens that is why they already won and achieve the U shape or even the V shape recovery so to sum it up we need a organized government and organized citizen to achieve it, it is all about doing their parts, it is the key to defeating the virus.

[leea-1334]

There are places that do show wrong numbers as well on the pandemic death. I saw a paper with proof online that some person put his grandpa into ICU because his grandpa had corona and he waited for 3 days for him to recover, on third day morning his grandpas results came back negative and he no longer had corona which made him happy but then they told him his grandpa passed away and on official paper it looks like he died from pneumonia so they basically faked his death as something other than corona.

If the dude didn't proved this with papers and results and dates I wouldn't believe him but it really happened. So, that means pandemic is not going away, it is still here and that means recovery may not be as quick as people imagined it would be, we could still be going down once again.

I think the problem is many fold to be fair. A lot of governments have already a huge massive debt problem and poor economy even before the pandemic, and not they are fearing people on the ground are going to get even angrier. We already read many stories now of people going for Bitcoin and throwing away their country's fiat.

And also people are tired of living in fear when others their neighbors and friends do not care and go out and enjoy. It is all human nature being out here to show us how bad we are at doing things together:(

[wxa7115]

It took 6 years for job levels to reach their original amount after 2008, and that's without having to worry about health procedures. Here, we can't even start the procedure of making more jobs until everyone is vaccinated or develops immunity to covid. And there is a large gargantuan percentage more jobs to recover this time around, and for all countries not just the US.

Assume a vaccine is made after 1 year. Then everyone is treated after another year. With the larger amount of jobs lost, multiply the 6-year recovery figure by 2. My senses say it could be 14 years before every single county makes back their job levels, though their economies will take a much shorter time to bring their foriegn trade levels back to normal, say 3-5 years from now.

And that is assuming the technology we have does not advance to the point of making many of those jobs unnecessary during that time frame, we already had a job crisis on the horizon as computers take jobs we thought were impossible to automate but when you add the pandemic to all of this then you have an incentive for businesses to not hire people immediately as not only they are costly but they run the risk of their activities begin stopped if too many get infected on their installations.

This gives them an incentive to only hire the people they actually need and replace the rest of their workers with computers so we will have to see how much this process delays the recovery of all the jobs there were lost.

[Latviand]

The truth is that I don’t know what will happen next, but I am always positive for my country and maybe the U-shaped curve I guess; I believe that as time goes on things will start getting better and the economy will start riding again.

We don't have any choice but to hope for the better things to happen in our economy.

Those governments are trying their best to achieve that U-shaped curve in a graph which is not that impossible to happen if people cooperates in following those safety protocols. The only thing that we need is to make the spread of the virus slower and reopen businesses that will help the economy grow and collect taxes so that the aid that the government allocated will come back to them.

[panganib999]

Among those possible patterns of recovery that the OP have provided, I think pattern shape V, U and L are the appropriate graphical representation of stabilization and consistency of recovery phase. Compared to the pattern shape W that have certain ups and downs which means there is still a challenge to keep up on stabilizing the recovery of a certain thing. The three first pattern shapes shows an upward stroke which is a good evening indication of a really recovering phase for they have already worked out certain flaws and incorrectness to be able to achieve such graph representation which is really good. When it comes to W, it is not certainly that bad, it is just that it is being challenged to keep up stabilizing the recovery phase which seems to be problematic but the good thing is still undergoing the up stroke after every down fall.

[Salauddin1994]

The governments of each country are trying to improve their economies by stabilizing potential recovery patterns we have to go back to the state we were in before corona the damaged export business must be brought back. Import business needs to be restored remittance has to be kept right for this industries and factories have to be started in full swing agriculture needs to be revived small and medium industries need to be saved the government is taking various steps for this purpose.

[CODE200]

At times like this that we are into the pandemic, the pattern of economic recovery will be hard to be distinguished among the four possible patterns of recovery for the fact that it is not done yet and we are still facing the effect of pandemic and total recovery is hard to be achievable but I think at times like this the economic status will be more likely to be W shape curve for there is a peak of struggle and a peak of challenge to rise up happening on the economic recovery meaning there is still hardship or difficulty on maintaining the recovery phase of an economy. But to look forward on what pattern of recovery we are all hope to be seen as soon as it is possible to be done are those remaining three shaped pattern of recoveries U, V and L for those presents real deal of having an economic recovery from downside going up which is a good sign of recovery.

[Upgrade00]

Update;
China continues it's expansion and looks to be taking the pattern of a V-shaped recovery according to his article - In a world mired in recession, China manages a V-shaped recovery. While other countries are still battling with the spread of the pandemic and the economic effects, China is leading the recovery, according to reports, they recorded a 4.9% increase in economic expansion during the just concluded third quarter of 2020 (July - September) and are on the path to a full recovery.

The article highlighted 2 factors which allowed such a recovery,
• Rapid measures to contain the spread of the virus; there is still a lot of debate around this as some other countries accuse China of allowing the virus spread to other nations while taking safety measures locally, but that is not the focus of this reply. Their lockdown measures proved very effective and allowed activities to return to normal faster and stimulate the economy.

• Strong global demand also proved very effective in China's economic recovery. This would mean that there is a constant demand for most of Chinese products globally as export growth continued in the third quarter.

I expect the global landscape to change over the years as de-globalization continues but for now nations with strong partners for their products would likely bounce back better from the economic crisis.