Are we biased?

[Poker Player]

I am sorry to say that, nowadays, bitcoin price reflects that it is simply high-risk asset, like another. Like if you invest in a start up of buy shares of a small cap company.

And what happens with those highly volatile assets when there is a crisis? People sell them to obten the most liquid asset: cash. Fiat money.

It wasn't created with that purpose. On the contrary, it was created to protect hodlers from the abuses of the financial system and central banks. But nowadays it isn't working that way.

Most of us in this forum believe that BTC is a unique asset that has value in itself for its unique features, thus it has to appreciate a lot in fiat terms, to six figures, maybe to seven figures and maybe there will be a point where it won't make sense to compare it to fiat. Both because of its intrisic value and because of the fiat inflation.

But the market doesn't reflect that way of thinking. That is why I've started to wonder if we are biased.

We had a mini crisis starting in March but we seemed to have recovered pretty quick. Now imagine that we enter a very deep crisis. A deep and long one.

Do you think BTC will appreciate?

I'm sorry to say that I don't think so. Most people would sell bitcoin, as well as other assets, to obtain liquidity.

I would be glad if someone persuaded me of the opposite, though.

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[jackg]

What's the market cap of bitcoin? ~200 billion $, there can't be many assets or market caps at that level.

Afaik, to put it in perspective I think we're 1/30th of the gold industry which is pretty good for something 10 years old?

If we have a disastrous strike and the economy receeds greatly, no asset is good for holding all you need is food and fuel (fire etc) and water. Beyond that the rest of the money people have has to go somewhere.

I actually think if shit hits the fan in Europe, we'd probably turn socialist/communist (with some things) or the time it takes other countries to recover and then break wawy from it after that.

[Febo]

We had a mini crisis starting in March but we seemed to have recovered pretty quick. Now imagine that we enter a very deep crisis. A deep and long one.
Do you think BTC will appreciate?

Bitcoin will crash extremely in case like that. But will also recover much fast then anything else. Gold will follow second.  I am not saying Bitcoin will recover with same speed as this March since we talk of different crisis. bitcoin will recover much faster then stocks. Much, much faster. For stocks can take years while fro Bitcoin can take months.

[Upgrade00]

We had a mini crisis starting in March but we seemed to have recovered pretty quick.

It depends on what you qualify as a crisis. In March Bitcoin crashed unexpectedly in price, losing about 50-60% of it's initial value, but this happened during a period were most assets and commodities were experiencing downward movements in value due to effects of lockdown and economic decline. It was unexpected but doesn't count as a crisis in my opinion, considering that it recovered very well over the following weeks and months.

Now imagine that we enter a very deep crisis. A deep and long one.

From the time Bitcoin actually got a market value, there has been extremely wide fluctuations in value; After the bull run of 2017, we entered a long bear market period, with Bitcoin lossing more than the % value lost in March. It however recovered and is still attractive to investors and being adopted in various sectors.

I'm sorry to say that I don't think so. Most people would sell bitcoin, as well as other assets, to obtain liquidity.

A trade doesn't signify a capitulation of the currency - Weak hands and strong hands trade coins regularly. If anything it reflects two opposing opinions; one party sees a falling currency and moves to cut their losses, another identifies potential for growth.

I would be glad if someone persuaded me of the opposite, though.

You should not be persuaded to invest or believe in a currency, you bear the risk and should do your research. Bitcoin doesn't appeal to everyone, and if you search hard enough, there would be an argument and a counter argument against it.

[exstasie]

I am sorry to say that, nowadays, bitcoin price reflects that it is simply high-risk asset, like another. Like if you invest in a start up of buy shares of a small cap company.

And what happens with those highly volatile assets when there is a crisis? People sell them to obten the most liquid asset: cash. Fiat money.

It wasn't created with that purpose. On the contrary, it was created to protect hodlers from the abuses of the financial system and central banks. But nowadays it isn't working that way.

What would you expect, one decade since Bitcoin was launched? It's probably not realistic to expect mass adoption in that time frame, and furthermore Bitcoin in many ways is not ready yet for mainstream adoption as a currency. To be a competitive and ubiquitous payment system, we need low fee solutions with excellent UX. Unfortunately LN is really not there yet.

People also aren't generally being paid salaries in BTC, which prevents its usage as a means of exchange. Since people need to spend money to acquire BTC (banking fees, trading fees, etc.) it therefore makes more sense to hold it as an investment. We're all speculating about whether mass adoption will happen or not. And that's why it is a volatile, speculative asset.

We had a mini crisis starting in March but we seemed to have recovered pretty quick. Now imagine that we enter a very deep crisis. A deep and long one.

Do you think BTC will appreciate?

I'm sorry to say that I don't think so. Most people would sell bitcoin, as well as other assets, to obtain liquidity.

I agree.

The biggest factor in the recent crisis was central bank policies. When they can inject trillions of dollars into the markets at the drop of a dime, that really limits the downside of risk assets. How well or long that can sustain in a "very deep crisis" I'm really not sure.

[btc_angela]

I am sorry to say that, nowadays, bitcoin price reflects that it is simply high-risk asset, like another. Like if you invest in a start up of buy shares of a small cap company.

And what happens with those highly volatile assets when there is a crisis? People sell them to obten the most liquid asset: cash. Fiat money.

I agree with you on that.

It wasn't created with that purpose. On the contrary, it was created to protect hodlers from the abuses of the financial system and central banks. But nowadays it isn't working that way.

It was also created to become a micro-payment scheme, unfortunately, it has evolved in the last 10 years as store of value and investment platforms.

Most of us in this forum believe that BTC is a unique asset that has value in itself for its unique features, thus it has to appreciate a lot in fiat terms, to six figures, maybe to seven figures and maybe there will be a point where it won't make sense to compare it to fiat. Both because of its intrisic value and because of the fiat inflation.

And many are still in that way of thinking.

But the market doesn't reflect that way of thinking. That is why I've started to wonder if we are biased.

We had a mini crisis starting in March but we seemed to have recovered pretty quick. Now imagine that we enter a very deep crisis. A deep and long one.

Do you think BTC will appreciate?

If we have a deep financial crisis, then people will find a way to hedge their wealth and I think bitcoin will be the best asset. The two year bear market proved that bitcoin can survive at it is very resilient, maybe some narrative have change, but we have passed the test already.

[Wexnident]

I wouldn't even persuade you. Though we can't deny that BTC being a high-risk asset, or an investment right now is a part of what made it quite famous and a part of what made a lot of people get in on the crypto world, It does hinder it's adoption towards its original goal, as a medium or a currency. Still, it isn't completely to be blamed, especially since Bitcoin in of itself isn't really prepared for such an adoption, and as such, made more sense for people to actually see it as an investment.

You could say that it's actually a development most agree on, since later on at the end of the road, it's volatility would be highly reduced, making it a lot more suitable for adoption, as well as a lot of developments then would fix problems with Bitcoin today (fees, speed, etc.).

We had a mini crisis starting in March but we seemed to have recovered pretty quick. Now imagine that we enter a very deep crisis. A deep and long one.

Do you think BTC will appreciate?

I'm sorry to say that I don't think so. Most people would sell bitcoin, as well as other assets, to obtain liquidity.

I would be glad if someone persuaded me of the opposite, though.

Most would probably sell, but the same could be said for those who are just waiting and would buy the second they see an opportunity. There would always be demand for Bitcoin imo, and recovery may take a long time, as long as there is supply and demand for it, it would naturally retain its position in the long run.

[adaseb]

Bitcoin has never been in a recession before. People were always wondering how will bitcoin perform in a recession. Most people assumed that people would sell stocks and buy bitcoin however its clearly not the case. If you watch SP500, Gold and other asset you will see that bitcoin follows those assets. Today it had a small dump and it was due to the SP500 hitting new lows.

The reason why is because bitcoin and crypto traders are closely monitoring the global markets before making a bias on bitcoin. So before they take a trade they look and see what Sp500 is doing. If SP500 has a massive crash, crypto traders know that bitcoin will follow so they all start shorting it. The reverse is also true but not always. When SP500 goes up, sometimes Bitcoin follows.

In general people are bias to what asset or stock they hold. If you hold Apple will you tell people to buy PC instead or Android phones? Probably not.

[pooya87]

it is only a "high risk asset" if you first look at bitcoin as an "asset" which is wrong, and also if you look at it in short term as a day trader wanting to make short term profit which is again wrong.

bitcoin is a currency and even if you want to consider profit, it only makes sense in the long term not short. and so far in the past 11 years the long term has always been profitable without even a single exception.
why? because as you already know bitcoin is offering a unique utililty as the only decentralized global currency that is censorship resistant and has a limited supply.

when you talk about crisis and its effect on bitcoin price you are again looking at bitcoin with a short term goggle. that is what the "panic sells and panic buys" are too. they are only short term effects not long term. as we already saw from the recent drop due to global pandemic.

Most people would sell bitcoin, as well as other assets, to obtain liquidity.

the amount of drop depends on what percentage you think are seeing bitcoin purely as an asset.
no matter how many, in the end when those people are out the remaining who don't see it that way will continue accumulating bitcoin which would also be so much cheaper by then since the "weak hands" would be out.
then we are back to normal just like we went back to normal a while back after the "weak hands" panicked and jumped out.

[Bttzed03]

~ If we have a disastrous strike and the economy receeds greatly, no asset is good for holding all you need is food and fuel (fire etc) and water. Beyond that the rest of the money people have has to go somewhere.

Yeah, I kinda got a glimpse of what's going to happen if there will be another pandemic longer than COVID-19. I've seen people trade their belongings for food (i.e. gadgets for rice) similar to the barter system where fiats or other forms of currency are unknown.

[Mahdirakib]

Not only bitcoin price become a victim of crisis. Other things like stock market, gold & oil price flows pretty same way as bitcoin. During March we have seen that crisis for covid-19 pandemic worldwide. And it recovered quickly as you mentioned. But I don't think bitcoin or other assets will loss it position fully for any crisis. It may get a little dump but all on a sudden we will see the backup in the market. I think btc is unique, it is accepted as payment method at many spot. And in future it will be accepted at more places beside fiat money.

[lepbagong]

When the Covid-19 pandemic hit rapidly throughout the world, it must be admitted that the economic crisis was felt because all of the country's foreign exchange reserves had to be spent to cover the unexpected costs, not many of the layoffs that had occurred made it more difficult for the government to also try to support aid.

but bitcoin seems to have no impact at all with the state of the Covid-19 pandemic, it can move up and even be fairly stable, but indeed investment in bitcoin is a long-term investment, because if you buy now it certainly requires a large fee and it is not advisable to wait for it to fall back. because a large investment is clearly a risk that is high enough but that risk will pay off if you get a high increase.

[Poker Player]

I agree that it is better to see the bitcoin in a very long term perspective. That way, it's easier for me to see bitcoin winning the war on fiat and distancing itself from other high-risk assets.

It's a pitty how the price is behaving nowadays, though,

[pilosopotasyo]

Do you think BTC will appreciate?

I'm sorry to say that I don't think so. Most people would sell bitcoin, as well as other assets, to obtain liquidity.

I would be glad if someone persuaded me of the opposite, though.

You are not looking forward and you are not checking what's been going on for the past ten years and I won't persuade, you when it comes to investing it should be based on your assessment if you think you are losing them stop and sell and cut your losses and comeback when bitcoin hit three digits and stabilize, investing in Cryptocurrency is not for the weak hands.

[ultrloa]

Do you think BTC will appreciate?

I'm sorry to say that I don't think so. Most people would sell bitcoin, as well as other assets, to obtain liquidity.

I would be glad if someone persuaded me of the opposite, though.

You are not looking forward and you are not checking what's been going on for the past ten years and I won't persuade, you when it comes to investing it should be based on your assessment if you think you are losing them stop and sell and cut your losses and comeback when bitcoin hit three digits and stabilize, investing in Cryptocurrency is not for the weak hands.

When investing you should see if you are earning and not losing and I can't blame people to sell  since everyone have different targets so provably those who sell already are in profit or sometimes they are just cutting their losses and buy back again to catch up their losses. And bitcoin investment is not only supposed to hold for long years since we already see how the market moves and it will not fit for long term that's why its better to grab the chances to gain while the market is moving rather than waiting for more years to see some excellent pumps.

[Silberman]

I am sorry to say that, nowadays, bitcoin price reflects that it is simply high-risk asset, like another. Like if you invest in a start up of buy shares of a small cap company.

And what happens with those highly volatile assets when there is a crisis? People sell them to obten the most liquid asset: cash. Fiat money.

It wasn't created with that purpose. On the contrary, it was created to protect hodlers from the abuses of the financial system and central banks. But nowadays it isn't working that way.

Most of us in this forum believe that BTC is a unique asset that has value in itself for its unique features, thus it has to appreciate a lot in fiat terms, to six figures, maybe to seven figures and maybe there will be a point where it won't make sense to compare it to fiat. Both because of its intrisic value and because of the fiat inflation.

But the market doesn't reflect that way of thinking. That is why I've started to wonder if we are biased.

We had a mini crisis starting in March but we seemed to have recovered pretty quick. Now imagine that we enter a very deep crisis. A deep and long one.

Do you think BTC will appreciate?

I'm sorry to say that I don't think so. Most people would sell bitcoin, as well as other assets, to obtain liquidity.

I would be glad if someone persuaded me of the opposite, though.

The truth is we do not know the answer about what will happen to bitcoin in a long and deep crisis but we are bound to find out eventually if this crisis becomes worse or if in the future we see a crisis like that, because lets be honest we are bound to see such crisis sooner or later, however the crash we saw in the stock market and then the one we saw in bitcoin is easy to explain, as you say speculators after the crash of the stock market needed liquidity and what better way to get it than to sell their bitcoin which had been appreciating anyway, but the question is will this behaviour change as we enter in a crisis so deep that even affects fiat currencies? I think the answer is yes but we have now way to know until we see such crisis.

[Gozie51]

We had a mini crisis starting in March but we seemed to have recovered pretty quick. Now imagine that we enter a very deep crisis. A deep and long one.

Do you think BTC will appreciate?

If you survived covid-19 doesn't mean it is a mini crisis. Covid-19 is still a global issue and a serious one too that is still requiring some countries thinking of closing down their economy again to avoid more calamity. It is serious
Bitcoin didn't drop because different countries supported their people in providing palliatives and different help from big organizations which helped people.

Some people sold off but many more bought because their were loose money. Example, US gave a lot of financial assistance to the citizen. Also that, at the time bitcoin was preferred for transactions more than fiat because of contact.

[justdimin]

Obviously in bitcointalk forum we are going to be biased towards bitcoin a bit, you are not going to find a lot of people who hate bitcoin here, almost everyone here loves bitcoin (or another crypto) and that is why we are not going to say anything bad about it. Surely there are some new people who are asking stuff like "will bitcoin go down to 3k" or whatever and create a bear call but we are not going to really be interested in that.

Go to wall street places and ask about crypto there and you will get a lot of hate for example, that would be biased as well, there are very few places that will have zero biased opinion about crypto, they are almost all biased one way or the other and that is why it is better to ask around in place that really cares about it.

[batang_bitcoin]

It's okay if that's what you think. We have our differences and opinions which we think may be correct and I don't think that's wrong. So far, that's the deepest and probably the worst that we can face, the covid19 with its effect and resulted to financial crisis. But as you see, during March, it has pretty low but after the next months we saw how quick it's able to recover. Unlike any other assets, this is why I like bitcoin and has the most in my portfolio because of its quick recovery.

[El duderino_]

BTC also is a community on its own, there are those who would sell for what you said, there are hardcore believers who think/knows,
"The contrary" and that  "it was created to protect hodlers from the abuses of the financial system and central banks"  Now in everything that is happening with governments and banks and.... More people will see that BTC is that unique asset as non before, cause its amazing futures and its power to redistribute wealth in the word, so I think with all crap thats going on, the nr of true BTC's will increase as well and those selling for FIAT will be left alone with there inflationary FIAT....