Are we biased?

[Lucius]

But the market doesn't reflect that way of thinking. That is why I've started to wonder if we are biased.

It's a pitty how the price is behaving nowadays, though,

In a nutshell, we can say that you are disappointed with the current situation or rather the price of Bitcoin, right? You may have expected too much from halving as some others, but you have to look at a much broader picture from the present moment, and understand the situation of the world when it comes to the pandemic and recession that is also at the door. The price of Bitcoin cannot grow constantly, the market consists of buyers and sellers, those looking for short-term profits and those entering long-term.

I can’t talk about anything before 2014 from personal experience, but I witnessed everything that happened after that, and what Bitcoin has achieved to date is a great success.

[Harlot]

We may have that line of thinking now that Bitcoin is some type of safe-haven asset where it can stand into a line of crisis since it had shown itself to quickly recover fast during the start of the outbreak in March but I'm not one of those people thinking that way. The economical crisis haven't even started yet during that time and we aren't experiencing the full extent of damages the pandemic has brought to us yet so saying that Bitcoin is some kind of hedge to a crisis is simply being optimistic. Even if I am a investor of Bitcoin I always try to remain neutral in how I think because it is my capital on the line when I will hold  a personal bias on what I am holding.

[glowing10]

It's okay if that's what you think. We have our differences and opinions which we think may be correct and I don't think that's wrong. So far, that's the deepest and probably the worst that we can face, the covid19 with its effect and resulted to financial crisis. But as you see, during March, it has pretty low but after the next months we saw how quick it's able to recover. Unlike any other assets, this is why I like bitcoin and has the most in my portfolio because of its quick recovery.

Bitcoin always rises after the fall and this is the best thing about it. The time period may be big or small it is not constant but if buying on dips becomes the bait then surely in the end, we will make money from it. So, it is said that invest for long so that you are not in stress also if in short term market falls but in the end, it will bounce and move upwards.

[batang_bitcoin]

It's okay if that's what you think. We have our differences and opinions which we think may be correct and I don't think that's wrong. So far, that's the deepest and probably the worst that we can face, the covid19 with its effect and resulted to financial crisis. But as you see, during March, it has pretty low but after the next months we saw how quick it's able to recover. Unlike any other assets, this is why I like bitcoin and has the most in my portfolio because of its quick recovery.

Bitcoin always rises after the fall and this is the best thing about it. The time period may be big or small it is not constant but if buying on dips becomes the bait then surely in the end, we will make money from it. So, it is said that invest for long so that you are not in stress also if in short term market falls but in the end, it will bounce and move upwards.

It is the normal sequence that we see with bitcoin. After each time it falls, there will be a quick time for its recovery and this is not a secret anymore for bitcoins holders and this has always been the hope that we're having if we see some negative charts on a day to day basis.
Investors who worry more about the day chart of bitcoin needs more experience and time to stay.

[Fundamentals Of]

Many of us here who are strongly supporting Bitcoin are frankly biased. Sometimes we are too positive on Bitcoin that we immediately frown on statements which are negative to Bitcoin but are actually honest and objective. As of this moment, it seems it is fiat that is falling that is now fueling Bitcoin. But on that regard also, it is better and safer to be with Bitcoin than fiat.

[barbara44]

Market is not really going that bad, 10 years ago or so there was a new "online currency" that was established by some anon person and today it is over 200 billion in market cap, that really shows how great we are doing. Obviously there was a period when crypto market was over a trillion dollars and bitcoin was 20k+ so people think that at 10k we are not doing that well but the reality is the further back you go, the better we look which means the future is bright for us.

Naturally just because past was great doesn't mean future will be great neither, but it does sound like that most of the time because so far we have said that and the future always looked better as well and when enough time passed we saw it was actually well. So maybe it will continue that way.

[exstasie]

it is only a "high risk asset" if you first look at bitcoin as an "asset" which is wrong, and also if you look at it in short term as a day trader wanting to make short term profit which is again wrong.

How are they "wrong?"

Personally I believe the market is always right. If some people view Bitcoin as an investment asset and others view it as a currency, that's perfectly fine and natural, even if it doesn't line up with your conception of what Bitcoin should be.

I'm pretty sure Satoshi acknowledged (based on Bitcoin's monetary rules) that each BTC would be worth millions someday if it went mainstream. It's only rational for some people to therefore treat it as an investment asset. They are speculating on whether mainstream adoption and 6-figure or million dollar prices will happen.

[Reid]

I agree that it is better to see the bitcoin in a very long term perspective. That way, it's easier for me to see bitcoin winning the war on fiat and distancing itself from other high-risk assets.

It's a pitty how the price is behaving nowadays, though,

That's the good thing about it.
There is always the fear of missing out (FOMO).

Have you been to the point like 2017?
I was at the crucial moment of selling my bitcoin in exchange for USD. But, there is always the thought of what you will miss out if you did that.
I do think there is a large percentage of bitcoin holders who think the same. Then, there are those who will keep it for a long time.
Yes, a crisis may come (we are actually in a crisis now) but I don't think the bitcoin value will go so far down.

[dimonstration]

That's the good thing about it.
There is always the fear of missing out (FOMO).

Fomo makes the market alive, having bitcoin for longer is what others thought can be beneficial as it might reached a higher price again, without us knowing that maybe we already the price it can only possibly reach. As bitcoin is not yet that widely popular and many countries still didn't know it then adoption rate can still increase that makes bitcoin more better in the future. We became too biased when we know how the market reacts in adoption and hype that can be in done anytime in the future.

[shoreno]

We became too biased when we know how the market reacts in adoption and hype that can be in done anytime in the future.

we are biased in a good way , whats wrong with that ? this is also what makes people to be involved on bitcoin and we sure do like that to happen .

We had a mini crisis starting in March but we seemed to have recovered pretty quick. Now imagine that we enter a very deep crisis. A deep and long one.
Do you think BTC will appreciate?

i wonder whats that mini crisis you mean ? dont tell me is it covid ? because i havent heard of any crisis aside from it but covid is not a mini crisis  . if its mini then why the effects are so wide and so long that we still need to follow  safety rules till now  . this is a deep crisis already and this can be the deep among the deepest but as you can see , we btc supporters are still here  . we appreciate the downtimes more than the up time

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

And what happens with those highly volatile assets when there is a crisis? People sell them to obten the most liquid asset: cash. Fiat money.

True but lets compare other asset to bitcoin in terms of their recovering rate. While other asset are struggling, bitcoin was able to recover to its previous all time high of the year and even surpassed it. That proved although it was previously sold as a result of fear,  it still got bought back after the whole situation calms down. The true is you can't prevent people form panicking when there's a crises, the money to had invested in this assets are exactly for situation like this. That's to sustain them when their jobs/government can't.

On the contrary, it was created to protect hodlers from the abuses of the financial system and central banks. But nowadays it isn't working that way.

Don't forget we're just 10 years into the technology regardless, bitcoin has surprised us all so far and it must be certain that you are impressed and anticipating what the future holds. With time it'll be able to do what it was created for perfectly (protect its holders against the fraud called fiat). The Industry is still developing and currently be overcrowded by whales with the power of manipulating the market to their wills. Therefore you shouldn't be surprised when things like what you explained above occurs frequently.

Most of us in this forum believe that BTC is a unique asset that has value in itself for its unique features, thus it has to appreciate a lot in fiat terms,

And looking at the currency/technology, I see no lie in the statement above, it's limited supply (just 21millions) serve as a perfect catalyst to push for a continuous increased price provide the demand for bitcoin remains constant which will obviously be the case since it's unique features (decentralization, privacy, convenance etc) will keep on attracting investors.

[Reid]

FOMO is not good for the newbies because they are missing the real point of the market and they will lose money for sure. Bitcoin price movement is very volatile and since day 1, cryptomarket is risky because the market works 24/7 and anything can happen. If you can't afford the risk of bitcoin better not to put much money on this, not until you learn how to deal with bitcoin. We are not that biased, we are just seeing things accordingly and based on what the market tells us.

That's true.
But, didn't we all walk that path?

For me, it would be best for them to experience it from the start.
That way, lessons will be learned while they are still investing low or being careful.
The worse scenario is they will learn it late and just when they are starting to put more money on the line.

[goaldigger]

FOMO is not good for the newbies because they are missing the real point of the market and they will lose money for sure. Bitcoin price movement is very volatile and since day 1, cryptomarket is risky because the market works 24/7 and anything can happen. If you can't afford the risk of bitcoin better not to put much money on this, not until you learn how to deal with bitcoin. We are not that biased, we are just seeing things accordingly and based on what the market tells us.

That's true.
But, didn't we all walk that path?

For me, it would be best for them to experience it from the start.
That way, lessons will be learned while they are still investing low or being careful.
The worse scenario is they will learn it late and just when they are starting to put more money on the line.

A costly way of learning how the market works and I can say that I’m also a victim of FOMO and I think this is normal for a newbies since they still don’t know how to control their emotions and they are just new in the market. Bitcoin will still go up high and appreciate on its value because of its limited supply and we are not biased on this because that’s the fact. Manage your money well, create strategies and always see the market trend based on its price.

[bitgolden]

I really do not think that "cash" is something people really look for, is it? I mean when pandemic first hit my initial reaction was to buy bitcoin, and it was cheap so I got it for quite a low amount as well, and now I profited, why do people think that is not the case for many? I assumed the price went down because there was a crisis and people needed money and spent it, not because they wanted cash.

If you reason to sell bitcoin (and cause it to go down) is to cash it obviously but then use that cash to make sure you survive the pandemic and buy stuff with that cash like food and so forth that is needed, I would totally be fine with that. However if you sold your coins and got cash and hold it in cash .. like in your wallet? I don't know whatever the reason but you didn't spend it, just had cash instead of bitcoin as an "investment" that is a horrible idea.

[RealMalatesta]

FOMO is not good for the newbies because they are missing the real point of the market and they will lose money for sure. Bitcoin price movement is very volatile and since day 1, cryptomarket is risky because the market works 24/7 and anything can happen. If you can't afford the risk of bitcoin better not to put much money on this, not until you learn how to deal with bitcoin. We are not that biased, we are just seeing things accordingly and based on what the market tells us.

That's true.
But, didn't we all walk that path?

For me, it would be best for them to experience it from the start.
That way, lessons will be learned while they are still investing low or being careful.
The worse scenario is they will learn it late and just when they are starting to put more money on the line.

A costly way of learning how the market works and I can say that I’m also a victim of FOMO and I think this is normal for a newbies since they still don’t know how to control their emotions and they are just new in the market. Bitcoin will still go up high and appreciate on its value because of its limited supply and we are not biased on this because that’s the fact. Manage your money well, create strategies and always see the market trend based on its price.

Costly ways of learning the market is a brand new thing, it wasn't like that just a few years ago. Back in the day bitcoin went up so fast that, you would be sad that you sold too early. I once had 50 bitcoins as a whole and you know how much I sold it for? 500 dollars, about 10 dollars each, at the time that was a good deal because I got it for free for doing something and it really worth a ton for me, 500 dollars for a work was almost 10 times more than I expected.

You know what it worths now? Over half a million dollars, that would have been enough for me to retire early. Obviously this was a thing in the past, "selling too soon" is not really a common problem anymore, but this FOMO stuff should be slowed down a bit, people didn't lost money, they lost profits, now they are actually losing money.

[Silberman]

Market is not really going that bad, 10 years ago or so there was a new "online currency" that was established by some anon person and today it is over 200 billion in market cap, that really shows how great we are doing. Obviously there was a period when crypto market was over a trillion dollars and bitcoin was 20k+ so people think that at 10k we are not doing that well but the reality is the further back you go, the better we look which means the future is bright for us.

Naturally just because past was great doesn't mean future will be great neither, but it does sound like that most of the time because so far we have said that and the future always looked better as well and when enough time passed we saw it was actually well. So maybe it will continue that way.

I think there is an issue with the expectations that people put in bitcoin, this market was created out of nothing and now is worth a fortune, that is not a small accomplishment at all and all of that happened in just a decade, what do you think bitcoin is going to achieve during the next decade now that it has advanced so much? Even if the value of each bitcoin does not get as high as the dreams of some people I have no doubts that as the economic crises becomes more frequent people will try alternatives and bitcoin will be there for all the people that are willing to think outside the box and that is enough to guarantee its growth over the long term.

[Distinctin]

I'd also extend into a level that might Bitcoin will soon to just a normal asset that anyone can bough in the market. But the stories now are quite changing, it is getting more volatile, riskier than is was featured before. As it goes by, the more issues that had come out and change the prospect of individuals instead of getting interested in this, the more it becomes less appreciated. People are so bothered to hear those scamming and hacking issues and give them a doubtful mind to invest.

[dunfida]

Market is not really going that bad, 10 years ago or so there was a new "online currency" that was established by some anon person and today it is over 200 billion in market cap, that really shows how great we are doing. Obviously there was a period when crypto market was over a trillion dollars and bitcoin was 20k+ so people think that at 10k we are not doing that well but the reality is the further back you go, the better we look which means the future is bright for us.

Naturally just because past was great doesn't mean future will be great neither, but it does sound like that most of the time because so far we have said that and the future always looked better as well and when enough time passed we saw it was actually well. So maybe it will continue that way.

I think there is an issue with the expectations that people put in bitcoin, this market was created out of nothing and now is worth a fortune, that is not a small accomplishment at all and all of that happened in just a decade, what do you think bitcoin is going to achieve during the next decade now that it has advanced so much? Even if the value of each bitcoin does not get as high as the dreams of some people I have no doubts that as the economic crises becomes more frequent people will try alternatives and bitcoin will be there for all the people that are willing to think outside the box and that is enough to guarantee its growth over the long term.

In future talks, we can presume out things that might happen basing off on the current situation we are into and in the past but it doesnt precisely connected or for people to rely on and this will surely break lots of peoples hope and dreams but somehow in the current trend we are into, we can presume out that its likely to fly with colors on upcoming decades to come.People shouldnt really rushed that much because things cant really be just achieved on few years time.
Let the adoption to move and lets hope for the best that this wont really just vanished out in thin air.

[el kaka22]

I do believe that bitcoin will go up but not because I am in love with it (I am) but because of technical and ideological reasons. We are in a market that is agreed to be a store of value, people put their money in it and we constantly go above 150 billion market cap and total peaked at over 1 trillion once.

We can't just say that "bitcoin has no value, people put value on it" because when something peaks at 1 trillion dollars (by comparison NASDAQ was only 14 at the time) you have to accept that it is something loved by millions of people and that is why it worths so much.

There is just waaaaayy too much money involved in crypto world to say that it is not going up, it will have to go up because everyone looks at bitcoin and thinks the same thing and they all invest to it, how could it drop?

[Silberman]

I do believe that bitcoin will go up but not because I am in love with it (I am) but because of technical and ideological reasons. We are in a market that is agreed to be a store of value, people put their money in it and we constantly go above 150 billion market cap and total peaked at over 1 trillion once.

We can't just say that "bitcoin has no value, people put value on it" because when something peaks at 1 trillion dollars (by comparison NASDAQ was only 14 at the time) you have to accept that it is something loved by millions of people and that is why it worths so much.

There is just waaaaayy too much money involved in crypto world to say that it is not going up, it will have to go up because everyone looks at bitcoin and thinks the same thing and they all invest to it, how could it drop?

I do think the same, if this market only followed speculators then it would have crashed all the way to zero years ago and nothing will remain of it, but it is precisely because bitcoin is highly regarded by some as a store of value and as the future of money all over the world that speculators can play their little game, if it was not for the holders keeping their coins in cold storage speculators will have no chance of playing with the price, so I think that what we are seeing is not a disconnection between the the goal of bitcoin to become a store of value, instead what we are seeing is a consequence of that goal, after all even if right now the dollar is the strongest currency around the world people still trade it and speculate with it right? So when bitcoin becomes the coin in which speculators invest the most money that is when we can say that bitcoin has become the most dominant currency all over the world.