Mining pools and the long-term viability of commercial bitcoin mining

[mikeywith]

The OGs of bitcoin mining made a terrible mistake, most of them have no strategic planning and almost zero plans for the future, the mining industry grew a zillion times and their growth was not even remotely close.

The result of this is that 3-5 Chinese mining pools controlling 90% of the hashrate, the OGc had the lead and they knew how to set-up a mining pool long before most of these large pools heard about bitcoin, I do understand that this isn't entirely their fault, I mean we all know that tech-savvy people suck in business modeling and strategic planning, I do appreciate all the work they put into the mining space without a doubt, it's just sad to see that they failed in taking a huge share of the mining pools industry and let all of the newcomers control it.


Moderator's note: frodocooper split this topic from bmoscato's "Question regarding solo.ckpool.org."

[philipma1957]

The OGs of bitcoin mining made a terrible mistake, most of them have no strategic planning and almost zero plans for the future, the mining industry grew a zillion times and their growth was not even remotely close.

The result of this is that 3-5 Chinese mining pools controlling 90% of the hashrate, the OGc had the lead and they knew how to set-up a mining pool long before most of these large pools heard about bitcoin, I do understand that this isn't entirely their fault, I mean we all know that tech-savvy people suck in business modeling and strategic planning, I do appreciate all the work they put into the mining space without a doubt, it's just sad to see that they failed in taking a huge share of the mining pools industry and let all of the newcomers control it.

It is not that kano or ck or slush or btcguild or bitminter did-not know how to run a pool.

most of them did not run from within china 🇨🇳.

most chinese miners mine in chinese pools this is pretty much true as I understand the mining world 🌍

So the old school people had a disadvantage that china exploited.

business is like that.

Frankly mining ⛏ where I am in NJ it is next to impossible to be large scale. I will never get to 1 megawatt of power use. But I am 63 and I am not going to move to chase mining. Maybe if I were 35-40.

[mikeywith]

most chinese miners mine in chinese pools this is pretty much true as I understand the mining world 🌍

So the old school people had a disadvantage that china exploited.

That is valid only to a certain degree, not to shift this discussion to a "geopolitical" one, but let's look at the numbers.

Chinese mining pools make roughly and safely 90% of the hashrate? Chinese mining farms make 50-60%?

Keep in mind that chances are that very large mining farms in China could be mining solo, it's not very unlikely that the majority of the hashrate on these pools is from non-Chinese miners, but even if we were to assume the opposite, there still comes the question.

Where did the 30-40% of Non-chinese miners go? 90% of them are mining on Chinese pools, Slush pool had the best strategic planing compared to all the non-Chinese "OGs" that's why it has about 3% of the total hashrate, while the rest of non-Chinese pools combined are not even in the top 10.

The top 3 largest pools alone made up 42% of the total hahsrate for the past 30 days, 100% of them are Chinese, one of the factors for their success is being "Chinese" there is no doube about it, but that certainly isn't the main factor.

[philipma1957]

Yeah I mine 1.7ph at viabtc because no non Chinese pool offers their options.

I mine under 20th at ckpool
I mine under 40th at mmpool

I can't mine all my hash at ckpool as I would need a lot more then 1.7ph to make the risk worth it.

If I had 100ph

I would mine 1 ph at ckpool
I would mine 2ph at mmpool
and 97ph at viabtc

But that's me.

[Biffa]

The average per month since Q3 2019 is that over 70% of miners on BTC.com, Poolin and ViaBTC are Chinese miners. Leaving 30% of the rest of the world, just on those three pools.

Most of the other big countries are a tiny fraction of the amount. (Around 6-7% each for USA, Kazakhstan and Russia). And that with Via and BTC.com not even that being "that" big in the grand scheme of things. But I imagine that its either the same or more for antpool, f2pool and huobi.

https://cbeci.org/mining_map

[mikeywith]

The average per month since Q3 2019 is that over 70% of miners on BTC.com, Poolin and ViaBTC are Chinese miners...

The map is based on geo-location data (i.e. IP addresses) of hashers connecting to the Bitcoin mining pools BTC.com, Poolin, and ViaBTC, who have kindly agreed to share aggregate-level data for research purposes.

Bolded part is the issue, this study can be off by a bit, I know that U.S citizens care about privacy and anonymity much more than the Chinese do, actually many other countries do, but let's assume the study is accurate and does apply to all other major pools, we still have 30% of the hashrate that isn't coming from China, but most of it is pointed to Chinese mining pools.

Yeah I mine 1.7ph at viabtc because no non Chinese pool offers their options.

Same here, I am stuck with Viabtc because they are the only pool which works perfectly for me, i am not happy doing so because Viabtc is controlled by bitmain oneway or the other, I tried almost all different PPS pools and I can't seem to find one that provides the same quality by any means.

[Artemis3]

Stop worrying, China will stop being the leader once it becomes unprofitable to mine there, all those large farms will simply close and most of those pools will disappear.

Maybe by the next halving, since the un-profitability will also deter the large asic manufacturers to continue spending tons of money in something the world simply doesn't demand in such large quantities anymore.

The last miners will be hobbyists, those large commercial miners will go. If you are the kind of miner that needs the mining operation to cover the bills, you will stop.

People with free energy, or something else bringing money to pay for the mining, should last longer.

If you have miners pointed to a solo pool, chances are you are already in the group of hobbyists that will keep things decentralized and running smoothly, after all those commercial Chinese pools and farms have shut down.

See this as their last run, let them enjoy it while it lasts... No worries for Bitcoin.

Nobody here is forcing anyone to use Chinese pools, or Chinese asics with Chinese firmware. You do it freely by you own choice.

[mikeywith]

Stop worrying, China will stop being the leader once it becomes unprofitable to mine there, all those large farms will simply close and most of those pools will disappear.

Wasn't this supposed to happen the past halving? or at least this is what many people thought, this makes the assumption that the next halving will be the end for those pool just as accurate, what was difficulty prior to the halving? 15T, and now? its at 19T and that's more than 25% increase when many people (including myself) thought we would go the other direction.

The halving is irrelevant when compared to price, 6.25 BTC at 10k btc is exactly the same as 3.125BTC at 20k, so only IF (and that's a big if) bitcoin price fails to breaks 20k by the time the next halving comes - then your assumption will be valid, but I am willing to bet against it.

The last miners will be hobbyists, those large commercial miners will go.

IMO this won't happen the next halving, not even that following one, in 8 years from now all bitcoin has to do is double twice, 1.5625BTC for block reward and bitcoin price at $40,000 will make mining as profitable as it is now, and I believe that in 8 years, prices way greater than 40k are doable.

Would love to see a non-Chinese mining gear that can compete with the Chinese mining gears.

[Artemis3]

Last halving made it unprofitable for many westerners, but the activity is still profitable in China and the few countries with very cheap electricity. But we are still marching there. If bitcoin price "doubles" as you say, it would only delay the inevitable, only a few more years.

So far in 2020 it looks like that. Bitcoin price seems to be holding at 10k, which is very good for Bitcoin, mining is destined to slow down as the halvings intended since the beginning, most coins have already been made, this is the time to stop commercial mining.

Some Chinese whale pre-bought 8000 S19s to Bitmain, i think that particular whale is going to get in financial trouble, Bitmain promised delivery of the first 2000 units Jan 2021. Can that whale ROI after causing its own demise? Just how high will the difficulty rise in 2021? There is no guarantee the price of bitcoin will rise in proportion to satisfy such a large investment.

Yes those whales leaving the game will ironically lower the diff and make it a bit profitable again, i think it will pump and dump bac and forth a few more times, but in the long run it is bad for commercial entities looking for a non variable profit.

After that who is going to make asics? Maybe the hobbyists like Geckoscience, who mostly re-uses existing ones anyway. All of those things are happening at the same time, even if you could theoretically improve on existing asics, the demand will be gone and nobody will bother. Its the end game for commercial Bitcoin mining.

So this may lead me to guess, that we are nearing the end of sha256 asic technology. Whatever chip is being used in the S19 might be the last, or perhaps there could be one more from that company (if their feud doesn't make them bleed more). At the same time the other manufacturers may iterate a couple more asic improvements, when it becomes apparent that this path isn't going to bring revenue anymore, they will cease any R&D and just sell whatever they have left.

The mining end game does involve the asic manufacturers as well. Start another one from zero? Not going to happen, too much money for too little ROI (if ever). Even buying one of the closing Chinese companies would probably not get you too far.

[mikeywith]

Last halving made it unprofitable for many westerners, but the activity is still profitable in China and the few countries with very cheap electricity. But we are still marching there. If bitcoin price "doubles" as you say, it would only delay the inevitable, only a few more years.

This isn't the case, the "inevitable" can be delayed to as far as a hundred years, it really isn't a matter of opinion or a thought, it's pure math.

Let's run the math for 13 and 33 years from now

Year 2020, bitcoin block reward  = 6.25    > total reward in fiat  = $62500 when price = $10,000
Year 2032 , bitcoin block reward = 0.78125> total reward in fiat = $62500 when price = $80,000
Year 2053 , bitcoin block reward = 0.0.0244141> total reward in fiat = $62500 when price = $2,559,996

Can bitcoin reach 80k in 13 years from now? very likely, can it get to 2.5M in 2053? maybe!

Mining gear manufacturers end only when at least one of two things happens.

1- They can't improve their mining gears efficiency

This takes away any incentives for miners to switch their mining gears for more profitable once, the network will be fully saturated and miners will start looking for a way to reduce their power cost instead of buying more efficient gears, those who fail to keep up with the low prices will have to leave the game and sell their miners to those who have cheaper power rates, all of this harms the manufacturers and they will be forced to close.

2- Mining rewards in fiat become too small

The point which you have explained already which depend ENTIRELY on the price of bitcoin and not the block rewards if we were to reach consensus to increase total supply and increased block rewards to 50BTC does that necessarily mean mining will be more profitable? no, because if bitcoin drops to a $100 the total mining industry will only generate $5000 a block, which is too small for everybody to sustain their businesses.

If bitcoin price drops to $1000 it will hurt gear manufacturers much more than the halving, so there is nothing that is going to happen in "a few more years" if the price keeps going up, I see that the end of those manufacturers will be the first point, and agree to what you mentioned here.

Whatever chip is being used in the S19 might be the last, or perhaps there could be one more from that company...

This is because technology is the limit, bitcoin isn't the limit, if the price keeps going up then the network will be able to accommodate more miners, and all they have to do is "make more gears of the same chip".

If bitcoin price doesn't increase, every halving will negatively affect commercial mining which will have a huge impact on the manufacturers.

To sum up:

You think industrial mining will die in a few years because of the halving, in other words, you are betting against the price of bitcoin. I think the opposite, I am betting on the price of bitcoin to go to much higher prices making the halvings near irrelevant for a few decades.

[Artemis3]

The price of bitcoin in USD isn't climbing at a fixed rate. As time passes, the price increase diminishes.

I'm pretty sure bitcoin price in 2032 will NOT be 80k. As a matter of fact it will not double by the next halving. As more halvings come and go, it takes longer and longer to double (if ever) its price.

This pattern exists historically for gold, and it reflects the history of bitcoin's price in all its 11 year lifetime.

The time bitcoin takes to double its price, takes longer every time. There is no reason for bitcoin to suddenly climb to 20k. Say, by the next halving, about 15k would be ok. And for the next one while you want 30k, i think it won't even be 20k, but 18k.

Those guys investing too much in mining gear probably think like you. but time will prove them wrong and when their mining can't pay the bills anymore they'll just close, the result is the same regardless.

Temporary fluctuations in price may occur, but that's all they are, temporary like when bitcoin reached 20k in 2018. How much time it takes to actually reach 20k again? More than twice since last time.

So in 2018 20k, (9 years). 2027 (18 years) 40k? wrong. Not even 30k... Could it reach 80k? yes, but not when you want. In 100 years? maybe.

It took 11 years for 10k, so while 22 years for 20k may sound reasonable, the actual result should be (under) 20k, maybe about 15~18k. Then in 44 years it must not be twice that (ie not 30~38, but LESS, much lesser than the previous one.

This is a logarithmic curve. Price starts vertical, and ends horizontal overtime. Don't worry, its not a parabola, it won't ever go down, simply climb slower and slower eternally, like gold.

Which is why commercial mining will end soon, in this or the next halving unless for some reason your wish comes true. But history says otherwise, and the less bitcoin price fluctuates, the better.

I said so before the halving, when the price was at 7.5k, that after halving its price cannot be 15k (what you wish), but anything under. so 9k~11k fits perfectly fine.

The reason mining is diminishing is because of this. If bitcoin price always doubled with each halving, its effect would cancel itself and the same number of miners would remain mining. But that is not the case.

BTW: assume a magically wealth preserving USD for my comments. If the USD fails on its own, that's not Bitcoin's fault (or merit). Compare it against gold if you want.

[philipma1957]

Off topic for sure but a lot of good info.

My take is  I got in when coins were 6 usd they went to 20,000 a 3333 to 1 jump

They are now 10,000 (rounded down for easy math)  they will never go to 33,330,000  which would be a 3333 to 1 increase.

[kano]

Alas the price in not predictable as stated.

Early 2011 it rose from ~$1 to $30 ... a lot more than 2 times.
At the end of 2011 the lowest it hit was around $2 - I tried to buy a lot at $5 but failed and exited buying coz I couldn't afford it

It first reached 1K in 2013 ... A LOT more than 10 times 2011.

It rose around 10 times in 2018 from around 2k to almost 20k (though it was lower than 2K early in the year)

It has been 12.5K since the halving and has dropped also.

Anyone who plays the fool and sells their BTC every day they get it because they are short sighted and cannot see the value of BTC, indeed will not get a good long term return.

While there are some forces that act on both BTC and gold, there are many forces that act on BTC that are unrelated to gold.
There's no point comparing them to make 'guesses' about what will happen.

The gold I bought in 2017 is now worth about 1.4x what it was.
The BTC I have from when I bought the gold has about tripled at the current price ...

The affects on the BTC price are not directly related to the halving or the difficulty.
They are only indirectly related.
Alas, if you buy in at the right time, and sell at the right time, you will always do better than assuming things about the price vs halving/difficulty.
... and of course done well across each halving already.

Looking at each halving point as a point to compare the BTC price is simply looking too late.

[mikeywith]

I said so before the halving, when the price was at 7.5k, that after halving its price cannot be 15k (what you wish), but anything under. so 9k~11k fits perfectly fine.

The halving has little to nothing to do with price, the trading volume alone is many times the total new supply, in fact even if we were to mine what's left in a year it's the only 2.6M BTC against the existing  18.4M BTC, I have explained in details why the effect of bitcoin halving is minor on price (will try to find the topic and paste it here), so now that we got the halving-price relation thing out of the way, let me explain to you why do I think that bitcoin will MOST likely hit 80k in 2032.

Since you mentioned Gold, Gold has a market cap of 9 trillion dollars, let's pretend that in 2032 all 21 million bitcoins are in circulation including the ones we lost for good.

21,000,000*80,000 = 1.6 Trillion $ ONLY.

Keep in mind that by the time we get there, banks would have probably printed a few trillion dollars and brought the value of fiat even lower, which makes 1.6 trillion $ in 12 years from now pretty much doable, in fact, easily doable.

I think a much larger market cap is possible for bitcoin, less than 8% of the world population own bitcoin, I believe this counts those who own a single satoshi on their addresses, fiat supply is incredibly large - it makes bitcoin market cap seems like a drop in the ocean, bitcoin market cap (117B) is almost equal to Jeff Bezos's capital alone which is 113B, a 100 billion $ is peanuts as far as the world economy is concerned,
if 10 rich people invest 10% of their money in bitcoin - that alone will take it to 20K in no time.

Again, I am not claiming that I am right and you must be wrong, since we both are "speculating" the price of bitcoin in the future, we both can be wrong, I guess let's wait for 12 years and come back to this topic to see who had the better guess for the future.

[philipma1957]

Well btc has grown in stages with more then the 1/2 ing involved .

Asics drove the price up.
1/2 ings drove the price up.
introducing the exchanges with lots of trading opportunities drove the price up.

last cycle 2016 to 2020.
off the top of my head

as low as 500

slowly climbs to 800-900 in jan 2017

moon shot sept 1 to late dec 2017 near 20k.

descends  to under 4 k march 2020 climbs up again leading to 2020 1/2 ing.

so 500- 800- 20000 -4000 -7000 all over the place last cycle. 2016-2020

this cycle 2020 may to 2020 sept 9000-12000 range so far.


to say it will do 20x that means 180000-240000 a coin

there could be an issue preventing those moves were do the investors come from?

making 200 billion turn into 4 trillion is harder to do then turning  15 billion into 320 billion.

we did 20x from jan 2017 to dec 2017. or 15 billion into 320 billion.

all rough off the top of my head numbers but close enough.

to do the same 20x. from sept 2020 to august 2021 we need to turn 190 billion into 4 trillion

frankly you need more then regular whales to pump that hard. maybe a few governments could push it up

[mikeywith]

True, the larger the market cap the harder it is to move to either direction, this the reason why coins with smaller market cap outperform BTC in bull markets.

Market cap = 100k, if you add 100k that is a 100% increment
Market cap = 1,000,000 , needs 1,000,000 to do 100%

I am not saying that we will maintain the same base and ratio but going up has no limit.

1st bull run:

Oct 2010 - June 2011
0.1$        - 32$             > 351,000%

2nd bull run:

Nov 2011 - Nov 2013
1.92$       - 1050$       >60,000% (17% of the first run)

3rd bull run

Aug 2015 - Dec 2017
200$        - 20,000$    >10,000% (16% of the second run)

Speculation:

Jan 2019 - Dec 2022?
3000$     -  70,000$  > 1600% (16% of the third run)

Sounds too far stretched?  Maybe, but remember according to the math I did in the first post, we only need 80k by 2032, which means 10 more years, given that fiat money loses it's value to almost everything that has any sort of limited supply.

one more thing to keep in mind that Bitcoin isn't the only coin miners can mine, those coins grow in value as well, they help keep the mining industry large enough for newcomers.