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Author Topic: The reason bitcoin price is not stable.  (Read 564 times)
GeorgeJohn
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September 26, 2020, 01:56:54 PM
 #1

Can someone explain categorically while the price of cryptocurrencies especially bitcoin is not constant, because I begin to wonder the reasons behind the secret of bitcoin falling and raising.

How can someone study bitcoin to the extent to know when bitcoin is about to fall and when is about to raise so that the level of lost can reduce.

Looking at the current price of BTC is it advisable to purchase bitcoin when the price is higher or when is lower as investor.

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September 26, 2020, 02:11:52 PM
 #2

It's a mix of a couple of things. On the top of my head:

1. Bitcoin lacks liquidity. Compared to other assets like large-cap stocks and gold that are heavily heavily traded, it will take a HUGE amounts of money to move the price of both assets as there's simply just so much money involved(including the money of huge companies). Bitcoin on the other hand, it's safe to assume that it's still mostly retail traders(me, you, the average Joe) who trade the markets.

2. Back to the retail traders(and investors) part: a lot of people got into bitcoin without any knowledge at all concerning trading and investing. A lot of people bought in, expecting the price to go up in no time. And what happens when the price dips or when a news site writes something negative about bitcoin? A lot of these people panic; simply due to their inexperience with trading and investing.

3. Bitcoin is a very new asset. Large-cap stocks have existed for a couple of decades, and gold has existed pretty much since the earth existed. As for bitcoin? Pretty much 11 years old. It's really unrealistic to have such a young asset like bitcoin to be "stable" in price. If anything, the volatility is good if you want value growth.

How can someone study bitcoin to the extent to know when bitcoin is about to fall and when is about to raise so that the level of lost can reduce.
Unless you know of a way to predict people's emotions with pinpoint precision, you just really can't. And if ever someone knew how, I'm pretty sure that person wouldn't tell you how as he/she would be too busy racking in cash from trading.

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September 26, 2020, 02:46:04 PM
 #3

The simple reason why the price of bitcoin is unstable and tends to be more volatile than other currencies is because no single entity controls the price of bitcoin.
The price of bitcoin or the ups and downs of bitcoin prices is determined by everyone who has bitcoin regardless of the amount.

If you have bitcoins now and you suddenly want to sell them all, you will determine the bitcoin price and the price will move down because the offer or supply is now getting more friendly. vice versa, if you want to buy a lot of bitcoin, you will contribute to the amount of bitcoin demand so that the price will move up.

and those who sell and buy bitcoin right now are not only you, but millions of people in this world do bitcoin transactions so that the price of bitcoin goes up and down quickly.

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September 26, 2020, 02:54:29 PM
 #4


Quote from: GeorgeJohn link=topic=5278359.msg55267246#msg55267246 date4
How can someone study bitcoin to the extent to know when bitcoin is about to fall and when is about to raise so that the level of lost can reduce.
Unless you know of a way to predict people's emotions with pinpoint precision, you just really can't. And if ever someone knew how, I'm pretty sure that person wouldn't tell you how as he/she would be too busy racking in cash from trading.


OK, how can someone know a way of prediction, because many people can't predict well if its the remedy. I taught that to know when the price is about to increase or reduce (raise and fall) is base on bitcoin chat due to better interpretation of candle stick in the chat.

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CryptopreneurBrainboss
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September 26, 2020, 03:05:18 PM
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 #5

Firstly OP, if I may ask, is there an asset, commodity, currency (infact anything tradable) that's ever stable? I believe not. Without much thought, the reason behind bitcoin not been stable is because it's tradable. At every point in time, on the respective exchanges someone will be willing to sell at a certain price while another is wanting to buy at a different price therefore you don't expect the market to have a fixed (stable) price. The other factors are just additional reasons that contribute to the high volatility of the market.

Its limited supply just adds to the already existing feature of a tradable assets (as explained above), In simple terms, it make the volatility of bitcoin very high but that doesn't mean bitcoin would had been stable if the supply was more than what we currently have. Another reason that contribute is the manipulation of the market by whales and exchanges to favour their selfish interest.

Bitcoin is the most speculated currency/assets of the last decade which obviously should reflect the price movement we're currently experiencing. There's so much feature that contribute to bitcoin not been stable but shouldn't be your worry instead you should concentrate more on profiting from the high unstable form of bitcoin which can be achieved through trading.

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September 26, 2020, 03:10:30 PM
 #6


Quote from: GeorgeJohn link=topic=5278359.msg55267246#msg55267246 date4
How can someone study bitcoin to the extent to know when bitcoin is about to fall and when is about to raise so that the level of lost can reduce.
Unless you know of a way to predict people's emotions with pinpoint precision, you just really can't. And if ever someone knew how, I'm pretty sure that person wouldn't tell you how as he/she would be too busy racking in cash from trading.


OK, how can someone know a way of prediction, because many people can't predict well if its the remedy. I taught that to know when the price is about to increase or reduce (raise and fall) is base on bitcoin chat due to better interpretation of candle stick in the chat.

Technical analysis which is somewhat predicting the price of a commodity only works when the volumes are very high, for example the stock market. Since cryptocurrency market is very new it will take some time for the market to achieve volumes similar to the stock market. When the crypto space reaches such volumes technical analysis of prediction will only work at that time.

At the moment if you have few million dollars you can easily manipulate the market and destroy any kind of prediction of the price. This is what whales have been doing for few years now.

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September 26, 2020, 03:14:00 PM
 #7

If you want to know some kind of advance prediction in order for you to know the next price. Well, they aren't actually predicting the right price but the market will tell you about it if you look at the chart carefully by watching those candlesticks movement. Plus a lot of factors that would totally change the whole outcome, so basically it's a combination of all the factors that could determine the next price.

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September 26, 2020, 03:20:15 PM
 #8

OK, how can someone know a way of prediction, because many people can't predict well if its the remedy. I taught that to know when the price is about to increase or reduce (raise and fall) is base on bitcoin chat due to better interpretation of candle stick in the chat.

With charting and technical analysis, you pretty much just weigh in the likeliness and odds of how the price will move, but not necessarily "predict" it. Try using technical analysis to predict price movements caused by bullish/bearish news and events, then I'll be impressed.

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September 26, 2020, 03:24:40 PM
 #9

If you want to know some kind of advance prediction in order for you to know the next price. Well, they aren't actually predicting the right price but the market will tell you about it if you look at the chart carefully by watching those candlesticks movement. Plus a lot of factors that would totally change the whole outcome, so basically it's a combination of all the factors that could determine the next price.

What are the major factor we have to consider in candles stick's movement,if I may ask, because  I really want to know the possible ways to handle the issues of prediction in bitcoin.

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September 26, 2020, 03:34:41 PM
 #10


Quote from: GeorgeJohn link=topic=5278359.msg55267246#msg55267246 date4
How can someone study bitcoin to the extent to know when bitcoin is about to fall and when is about to raise so that the level of lost can reduce.
Unless you know of a way to predict people's emotions with pinpoint precision, you just really can't. And if ever someone knew how, I'm pretty sure that person wouldn't tell you how as he/she would be too busy racking in cash from trading.


OK, how can someone know a way of prediction, because many people can't predict well if its the remedy. I taught that to know when the price is about to increase or reduce (raise and fall) is base on bitcoin chat due to better interpretation of candle stick in the chat.
You mean through reading bitcoin charts? Yeah, you can some what predict what might happen next, but those reading doesn't hold true for every case. Don't just depend on the charts. Prices are more influenced by current events and news. So if you know something good, say for example governments all around the world are going to consider bitcoin a legal tender, then you can already predict that the price is going to skyrocket. Again, if you see a well known exchange getting hacked and scamming thousands of bitcoin, then you can predict people are going to panic sell their coins and the prices will drop.

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September 26, 2020, 03:35:27 PM
 #11

There's no such thing as stable price, there's only less volatile prices and more volatile prices. The reason why Bitcoin is volatile is because there's no central authority to stabilize its price, and no one knows how to objectively calculate its value, so everyone is just guessing. And then speculation just creates more speculation, if Bitcoin's price wasn't stable in the past, market participant don't expect it to stabilize, and they view even smaller moves as the beggining of a bullish or bearish trend.

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September 26, 2020, 03:53:24 PM
 #12

~

That's true, it is the bitcoin traders that sets what will be the price of the bitcoin. The law of supply and demand. If there's more demand, the price of bitcoin will be subjected to get a higher value. It's the willingness and unwillingness of everyone in the network that sets it's value. Less demand, the more it is subjected to a declining price. That's why it bitcoin is volatile.
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September 26, 2020, 03:55:10 PM
 #13


Quote from: GeorgeJohn link=topic=5278359.msg55267246#msg55267246 date4
How can someone study bitcoin to the extent to know when bitcoin is about to fall and when is about to raise so that the level of lost can reduce.
Unless you know of a way to predict people's emotions with pinpoint precision, you just really can't. And if ever someone knew how, I'm pretty sure that person wouldn't tell you how as he/she would be too busy racking in cash from trading.


OK, how can someone know a way of prediction, because many people can't predict well if its the remedy. I taught that to know when the price is about to increase or reduce (raise and fall) is base on bitcoin chat due to better interpretation of candle stick in the chat.
You mean through reading bitcoin charts? Yeah, you can some what predict what might happen next, but those reading doesn't hold true for every case. Don't just depend on the charts. Prices are more influenced by current events and news. So if you know something good, say for example governments all around the world are going to consider bitcoin a legal tender, then you can already predict that the price is going to skyrocket. Again, if you see a well known exchange getting hacked and scamming thousands of bitcoin, then you can predict people are going to panic sell their coins and the prices will drop.
I think these is difficult to predict because every persons here is making a personal suggestion which some are correlated.

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September 26, 2020, 04:21:41 PM
 #14

~
I think these is difficult to predict because every persons here is making a personal suggestion which some are correlated.
Everyone would be uber rich by now if it was that easy to pinpoint the next price target.

~
What are the major factor we have to consider in candles stick's movement,if I may ask, because  I really want to know the possible ways to handle the issues of prediction in bitcoin.
Read @adzino's examples on news and events. I would like to add events like bitcoin halving also. Based on the past halvings, price tends to surge after halving. The latest just happened this year and if the trend continues, we could see btc surpass $20K next year. That's only a speculation and I don't want you to invest just based on that.

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September 26, 2020, 04:26:42 PM
 #15

Firstly OP, if I may ask, is there an asset, commodity, currency (infact anything tradable) that's ever stable? I believe not.
Well, there has never been and will never be any asset that will be perfectly stable. The only thing you can say is stable is that 1 BTC will always be worth 1 BTC. Smiley

But other currencies, like the USD, has much more stability than Bitcoin does. Bitcoin is volatile, while the top fiat currencies are somewhat stable.



Bitcoin is not stable due to lots of factors. The major one imo is immaturity. Had the market been mature, we would've had a less volatile cryptocurrency. But honestly, we only have a few cycles that only might repeat at some point so we have no idea whether Bitcoin has its own cycles or goes against the standard. There are some typical cycles in our economies, like recessions that happen about every decade.

But BTC is way too young for us to know for example if the post-halving booms will only happen in the first decade of its existence or are an usual event. Then we should also not ignore that regulation is still foggy in many countries, which makes people a little doubtful about the idea of owning cryptocurrencies.

And then, we know that every 4 years Bitcoin becomes harder to be mined. That on its own makes Bitcoin more volatile than other assets. You have no idea right now exactly how much gold there is left to be mined. With BTC, you can count every single satoshi perfectly.

Only time will tell if Bitcoin has to become something stable or not. I doubt it'll ever be though.
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September 26, 2020, 04:43:18 PM
 #16

~
I think these is difficult to predict because every persons here is making a personal suggestion which some are correlated.
Everyone would be uber rich by now if it was that easy to pinpoint the next price target.

~
What are the major factor we have to consider in candles stick's movement,if I may ask, because  I really want to know the possible ways to handle the issues of prediction in bitcoin.
Read @adzino's examples on news and events. I would like to add events like bitcoin halving also. Based on the past halvings, price tends to surge after halving. The latest just happened this year and if the trend continues, we could see btc surpass $20K next year. That's only a speculation and I don't want you to invest just based on that.

So actually someone don't have to invest in bitcoin when the price is high,please try to clarify me in this aspects of investment so that someone will be able to know when to invest especially beginners@Bttzed03

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September 26, 2020, 04:53:17 PM
 #17

Firstly OP, if I may ask, is there an asset, commodity, currency (infact anything tradable) that's ever stable? I believe not.
Well, there has never been and will never be any asset that will be perfectly stable. The only thing you can say is stable is that 1 BTC will always be worth 1 BTC. Smiley

But other currencies, like the USD, has much more stability than Bitcoin does. Bitcoin is volatile, while the top fiat currencies are somewhat stable.



Bitcoin is not stable due to lots of factors. The major one imo is immaturity. Had the market been mature, we would've had a less volatile cryptocurrency. But honestly, we only have a few cycles that only might repeat at some point so we have no idea whether Bitcoin has its own cycles or goes against the standard. There are some typical cycles in our economies, like recessions that happen about every decade.

But BTC is way too young for us to know for example if the post-halving booms will only happen in the first decade of its existence or are an usual event. Then we should also not ignore that regulation is still foggy in many countries, which makes people a little doubtful about the idea of owning cryptocurrencies.

And then, we know that every 4 years Bitcoin becomes harder to be mined. That on its own makes Bitcoin more volatile than other assets. You have no idea right now exactly how much gold there is left to be mined. With BTC, you can count every single satoshi perfectly.

Only time will tell if Bitcoin has to become something stable or not. I doubt it'll ever be though.

The stock market is the most mature, but this does not prevent stocks of Tesla or Yandex from flying to the moon or the reverse!
It's just that the crypto market has serious volatility due to lack of regulation and a huge number of manipulations! Which is much less in the stock markets...

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September 26, 2020, 04:58:40 PM
 #18



There is a way to learn when the price of BTC is goingto go up and go down like using the RSI indicator and the similar one like the oscillatory momentum, its the only technical analysis though but the unpredictable part is the fundamental which somehow could affect as well and most of the time very manipulated.

As to why its not stable is because its not going to be a good asset to invest if it has stable price. might as well just buy USDT and hold. 




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September 26, 2020, 05:08:55 PM
 #19



There is a way to learn when the price of BTC is goingto go up and go down like using the RSI indicator and the similar one like the oscillatory momentum, its the only technical analysis though but the unpredictable part is the fundamental which somehow could affect as well and most of the time very manipulated.

As to why its not stable is because its not going to be a good asset to invest if it has stable price. might as well just buy USDT and hold. 

I taught is because is decentralized and know one monitor it as I said in the previous response here, that means since bitcoin is not stable in price the chance of it getting to 20k is there.

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September 26, 2020, 05:25:26 PM
 #20

~
Read @adzino's examples on news and events. I would like to add events like bitcoin halving also. Based on the past halvings, price tends to surge after halving. The latest just happened this year and if the trend continues, we could see btc surpass $20K next year. That's only a speculation and I don't want you to invest just based on that.
So actually someone don't have to invest in bitcoin when the price is high,please try to clarify me in this aspects of investment so that someone will be able to know when to invest especially beginners@Bttzed03
I don't think you understood what I meant with this "I don't want you to invest just based on that.". I didn't say do not invest because price will go up to $20K or higher, I was saying do not invest just because of the previous halving trend.

I suggest you start reading trading related books than asking all the questions here. It's faster and easier for you to learn that way.

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