Analysis of Bitcoin dependence on gold along with 10,000 channel analysis

[F_Societys]

Hello friends, this analysis is my personal opinion and I am waiting for your guidance.

First analysis:


Well, in the image below, you can see that the beginning of the previous wave was bullish.



And the price was trying to break the resistance lines 1 and 2.And if you look at the chart:



Bitcoin was able to cross the resistance line 1, but the divergence in the MACD seems noticeable, the price is currently moving in the tangent of the upper Bollinger Band.

It seems that if it does not cross the 10915 resistance, we will see reforms in the coming hours; Expect correction until line 1 support test and 4-hour Pivot 10700 and in case of failure, support 10600.


Second analysis:

Gold fell sharply until early next month, but at this point we see that bitcoin is moving a little independently and a little bit dependent on gold.
Which seems a bit suspicious and it is possible that exchange offices and whales are converting their bitcoins into dollars before the fall.

and bitcoin prices will soon enter the 9000 channel.So that they can buy again in that channel.

I hope collective wisdom helps us make the best decision
❤

[Poker Player]

I see that you have taken your time to do that analysis, but I do not accept the premise that the bitcoin price depends on the price of gold. You say so yourself:

we see that bitcoin is moving a little independently and a little bit dependent on gold.

Apparent relationships can be established between almost anything. Yes, sometimes gold price is similar to bitcoin price,  and they have similar features but I don't think we are going to go farther than: "sometimes the price behaves similar and sometimes not".

[nelson4lov]

I haven't taken a look at the charts since last week so my opinions about bitcoin's price action and movement is a bit outdated. But my mid-term and long term targets haven't changed. It's a bullish bias. If everything goes as planned with no fud to cause a sell-off (covid-19 /Elections, etc) we might see $13K bitcoin before the end of the year.

I see that you have taken your time to do that analysis, but I do not accept the premise that the bitcoin price depends on the price of gold.
(...)

If you've compared both bitcoin, gold and stock charts like that of S&P500 recently, You would've seen that they've all been correlated. Earlier this month, There were covid-19 fud going round and gold dropped. It didn't take long for Bitcoin to join the party taking altcoins along with it. Even though Bitcoin is seen as a "store of value" and doesn't depend on the stocks and currency market, its worth noting that it does correlate from time to time as most people who are invested in cryptos are also stock traders/investors so where's a fud like the one we had in March about covid-19, they usually take out their money from all markets, when a lot of people do same, it causes a panic followed by a sell-of.

If there's one thing I've learned from market,  it's the fact that we should always learn to evolve.

Do you want to be right or do you want to make money

As much as we don't believe crypto markets correlates, it doesn't hurt to take a peek at other markets in order to make a more informed decision.

[F_Societys]

I see that you have taken your time to do that analysis, but I do not accept the premise that the bitcoin price depends on the price of gold. You say so yourself:
Apparent relationships can be established between almost anything. Yes, sometimes gold price is similar to bitcoin price,  and they have similar features but I don't think we are going to go farther than: "sometimes the price behaves similar and sometimes not".

Yes, I spent a few hours writing this article, and also this dependence on gold occurs in many things, and I think bitcoin may have a slight dependence on gold.
Gold and the dollar are highly dependent on the market today. The Corona virus has also shown us that bitcoin is not isolated in the world but interacts with other things.

I haven't taken a look at the charts since last week so my opinions about bitcoin's price action and movement is a bit outdated. But my mid-term and long term targets haven't changed. It's a bullish bias. If everything goes as planned with no fud to cause a sell-off (covid-19 /Elections, etc) we might see $13K bitcoin before the end of the year.

Your prediction is a bit optimistic, but not impossible. If a vaccine is made, I think we will see a drop in prices!
In this way, people empty their safes and live without the Corona virus.
And this reduction in market size can lead to a sharp drop in prices, and deceive people by creating fear and emotional decisions. The only way in this situation is to make rational decisions.

If you've compared both bitcoin, gold and stock charts like that of S&P500 recently, You would've seen that they've all been correlated. Earlier this month, There were covid-19 fud going round and gold dropped. It didn't take long for Bitcoin to join the party taking altcoins along with it. Even though Bitcoin is seen as a "store of value" and doesn't depend on the stocks and currency market, its worth noting that it does correlate from time to time as most people who are invested in cryptos are also stock traders/investors so where's a fud like the one we had in March about covid-19, they usually take out their money from all markets, when a lot of people do same, it causes a panic followed by a sell-of.

If there's one thing I've learned from market,  it's the fact that we should always learn to evolve.

These dependencies are sometimes strong and sometimes very low, but the dependence on the dollar, bitcoin, gold, oil, and the stock market is undeniable. As you said, they act like a cycle.

[buwaytress]

I was thinking the same about US elections (Nov) and then some third quarter numbers to spread terror among the ranks (early October) but I wonder why you think the dump only happens to 9k and not much lower? Definitely represents a big fat buy in that's sure to return gains within the end of 2020, but personally feel the real Black Day event wasn't in March.

[bitgolden]

Bitcoin is not depending on gold, it is not a connection like that and it is funny that people may even consider it that way. Bitcoin and gold is basically the same logic of investment, maybe not the same numbers but they do have resembling charts and the reason why people invest into those is the same thing as gold since people want to keep their purchasing power at the same level when they buy gold and they do the same with bitcoin.

Let's assume you have 100k and there is a car you want to buy which is 100k, next year it will be 105k so if you buy gold or bitcoin you want the value of your 100k investment to them to become 105k and still be able to buy the car, you can't do that with cash and you don't know what happens with the company you buy the stock of so the best method is still bitcoin and gold.

[GreatArkansas]

First, I'll say also Bitcoin not correlated or dependent with gold. But we can say they are some similar parts or charasteristics. But when we talk about the price of Bitcoin and Gold, it's another part.
I love your chart especially you using the MACD (which I am not an of it). But what my attention got is the stochastic RSI you made, when you look at the second chart, we still not reached the overbought area which I can say, there's a lot more room for upward prices of Bitcoin.

[F_Societys]

I was thinking the same about US elections (Nov) and then some third quarter numbers to spread terror among the ranks (early October) but I wonder why you think the dump only happens to 9k and not much lower? Definitely represents a big fat buy in that's sure to return gains within the end of 2020, but personally feel the real Black Day event wasn't in March.

Because nothing is clear in the elections and it is like a double-edged sword. Also, everyone said about the corona virus that a sharp drop in prices is on the way, but we saw that it dropped very little and, according to you, compensated us.
The same may be true of elections. However, depending on the circumstances, we may see a terrible fall.

Bitcoin is not depending on gold, it is not a connection like that and it is funny that people may even consider it that way. Bitcoin and gold is basically the same logic of investment, maybe not the same numbers but they do have resembling charts and the reason why people invest into those is the same thing as gold since people want to keep their purchasing power at the same level when they buy gold and they do the same with bitcoin.

Let's assume you have 100k and there is a car you want to buy which is 100k, next year it will be 105k so if you buy gold or bitcoin you want the value of your 100k investment to them to become 105k and still be able to buy the car, you can't do that with cash and you don't know what happens with the company you buy the stock of so the best method is still bitcoin and gold.

My opinion is that there is dependency. It may be low, but it exists.
I have looked at the charts of gold and bitcoin over the past few months and found that they are in the same direction in (some) movements.

And this dependence cannot be taken for granted. Perhaps the conditions of society cause both to rise or fall, and we assume that they are interdependent. This is just a guess.

[pooya87]

Gold fell sharply until early next month, but at this point we see that bitcoin is moving a little independently and a little bit dependent on gold.
Which seems a bit suspicious and it is possible that exchange offices and whales are converting their bitcoins into dollars before the fall.

despite what your title says you had zero analysis about any kind of dependence of bitcoin price on gold! which is understanding because there is no dependence at all to analyze. bitcoin history is not a couple of weeks, it is more than 11 years. and in that time it has never had any dependence on any other market including gold.

the reason you are having a tough time understanding why bitcoin price is rising and staying above $10k while other markets such as gold are having trouble and even dumping is that your initial assumption of dependence was wrong.

[F_Societys]

First, I'll say also Bitcoin not correlated or dependent with gold. But we can say they are some similar parts or charasteristics. But when we talk about the price of Bitcoin and Gold, it's another part.

As I said in the answer below, this dependence is not yet clear:

My opinion is that there is dependency. It may be low, but it exists.
I have looked at the charts of gold and bitcoin over the past few months and found that they are in the same direction in (some) movements.

And this dependence cannot be taken for granted. Perhaps the conditions of society cause both to rise or fall, and we assume that they are interdependent. This is just a guess.

I love your chart especially you using the MACD (which I am not an of it). But what my attention got is the stochastic RSI you made, when you look at the second chart, we still not reached the overbought area which I can say, there's a lot more room for upward prices of Bitcoin.

My main goal was to show that the final price can be higher than the current price, and this opens the way for more purchases.
Also thank you for your kindness.

[buwaytress]

Because nothing is clear in the elections and it is like a double-edged sword. Also, everyone said about the corona virus that a sharp drop in prices is on the way, but we saw that it dropped very little and, according to you, compensated us.
The same may be true of elections. However, depending on the circumstances, we may see a terrible fall.

The only reason I think covid19 hasn't had an effect yet is because the numbers aren't there yet. Q3 numbers will be coming in though, right about the time of US elections too, and with 2nd wave effects sure to show up in Q4 numbers, it's not going to be a pretty picture anywhere in the world. Back when we had Black Thursday in March, people were saying it's a Black Swan event but the real crash hasn't happened yet, mainly because money's been pumped in to gloss over the cracks. But it's coming, for sure. Just when. And the longer it's delayed, the more painful it'll be when the gloss is ripped off.

[F_Societys]

despite what your title says you had zero analysis about any kind of dependence of bitcoin price on gold! which is understanding because there is no dependence at all to analyze. bitcoin history is not a couple of weeks, it is more than 11 years. and in that time it has never had any dependence on any other market including gold.

the reason you are having a tough time understanding why bitcoin price is rising and staying above $10k while other markets such as gold are having trouble and even dumping is that your initial assumption of dependence was wrong.

As I said, this is just a hypothesis, and in some cases they were in the same direction.
And maybe it's because of society or something else. The only goal is to come up with a new idea.
In 2019, everyone was saying that bitcoin is independent of everything, and as we have seen, the corona virus affected bitcoin as much as it affected gold, cars, oil, stocks, and the dollar.

[pooya87]

In 2019, everyone was saying that bitcoin is independent of everything, and as we have seen, the corona virus affected bitcoin as much as it affected gold, cars, oil, stocks, and the dollar.

bitcoin is independent from other markets not what is going on in the world or the economy in general. this means for example if stock, gold, oil, real estate,... tanked bitcoin will not be affected because it doesn't care about any of that and there is no correlation. but if the economy tanked then bitcoin will surely be affected. that's what happened during the Corona virus outbreak to some extent.

now the only discussion remaining, which has split people into a couple of groups, is what would the effects of an economical crisis like 2008 for example would be on bitcoin. some say it will shoot up, some say it will tank and some say it won't change in such drastic manner.