Does US election affect the bitcoin price?

[LUCKMCFLY]

  In 2016, I noticed that the bitcoin Bull Run started right after the US election.
I don't know if this is due to huge of US$ Printing. Maybe a lot of money was printed just before the election which can be seen in the market after the election.
>>>>>>>>What about Your opinion? <<<<<<<<<<<<

I do not remember well that part if when Trump won the Bitcoin rose, what I do know is that in December it is very likely that the price of Bitcoin could rise due to the fact that demand increases. The fact that a new president or elections arises to be replaced by the current one, may not be a fundamental one, but if it is for the price to rise, then so be it.

[Harlot]

From what I know the reason why it is linked to the election is because Trump had won the election and his campaign has promise the "Make America Great Again" campaign which includes boosting the economy of US, speculators linked this heavily for Bitcoin going up but the thing is on the day that Trump won Bitcoin only increased by 3% which even before that time is considered a normal occurrence for Bitcoin's price movement. We can just blame news creators here where they aren't really doing anything but just try and link every event that happens affects the price of Bitcoin which drives normal people nuts.

[Hippocrypto]

I don't have a reason to believe it should, so I would say not it should not affect the price of bitcoins but that said there is always some movement around elections so I mean maybe there is a connection between elections and the price of bitcoins. maybe some policy changes are expected and hence the price can rise or drop based on those new policies.

Also the effect of such events in a particular country should not have a big impact on the price of bitcoins because there is a small groups of people who might buy/sell bitcoins during these events take place so don't worry too much about these events and the price being affected too much. I avoid trading during such times though like when halving happens I avoid being falling the victim to FOMO while also don't sell.

What's happening over bitcoin these days can't be associated with politics, partly it's the effect of global health crisis. We need more years before bitcoin price soar just like what we've experienced last 3 years ago in times of bullrun. FOMO always tend to happen, but don't get mad if you've been a victim of it because by the time you're able to survive with the current bear market you'll harvest what you've planted. Of course that's profit along the way, when you have invested for your future.

[Zemomtum]

It might affect the price as the easiest avenue to send fund to support their candidate. Eyes have begun to open into the adoption of BTC and positive vibe about Bitcoin during campaign can also drag the price upward.

[sheenshane]

I think there is a short impact but it will recover shortly. Just like this scenario when Trump announced that he is infected by the coronavirus on this thread discussion, as you can see the graph showed that the Bitcoin price was affected altogether with the stock market, but later on, Bitcoin price has been recovered from a small correction that might the reason of what happened by President Trump. I think that's natural that every activity in the US has an effect on all market prices.

It might this US election has an impact on Bitcoin price, we don't know if it will going to surge or drop the price.

[GreatArkansas]

I also keep seeing some kind  of topics in CT (Crypto Twitter)
Which they are telling that they first converted their Bitcoin to USD or fiat because they are expecting a huge dump DURING US election.
So we have own opinions, and that's what they believe.
Honestly even there is no upcoming US election, 10,000 USD price of Bitcoin is still cheap.

[worldofcoins]

No, it won't impact bitcoin cost or his market yet the demonstration of government on the economy will deice what will befall the market Like if each individual becomes jobless they'll not ready to purchase bitcoin or contribute to it.
Peoples can sell out bitcoin just to endure.
The political decision won't impact however the demonstration of government can exceptionally impact on bitcoins cost and the market.

[STT]

 In 2016, I noticed that the bitcoin Bull Run started right after the US election.

General sentiment effects Bitcoin I'd say as it has some relation to a contraction or expansion in monetary velocity.   2016 we did fall briefly on the election result across all assets bar bonds and similar safe assets then the market very much rose from that point.    I'd say its quite reliable that stocks generally go up in a way that correlates to BTC also finding easier progress upwards.      Either candidate in the US election will likely expand fiscal spending and easy money policy so I dont think that much matters precisely but how perception will occur at that time will vary.
   The big rise end of 2016 into 2017 was not immediate or obvious imo and was not a result of just one thing, it was also following a large retraction from the 2013 peak and being released from that negative trend allowed a great rise so that 'spring' effect is something to recognise also.   Imo we are not quite the same in 2020 into 2021 as we were 2016 to 2017, price is higher and I dont think we've been as negative as back then.   I think we take a little more time personally, just my guess.

[bitgolden]

This election is a bit different, it is not really like any other, people hated each others president a lot because of ideological reasons mainly but this time around there is a big hatred towards Trump as a person. I can testify that before Trump last 5 presidents didn't disrespected their opponents the way he did, dude is rude and obviously a criminal as well, this is not like any other election.

This obviously changes the financial world as well, there are people who support him and want him to make difference for rich people and there are people who want him out to make the whole nation go up together, this is really just a fact. Which means if financial world gets affected this way, it will affect bitcoin as well and that is how the price change will happen depending on the result.

[Reid]

Biden and Trump huh?
There will be a lot of spending but I don't about money printing.
It's supposed to be regulated.

If they just print more then the value of USD will go lower without anything to sell in exchange for it.
I don't think it will move bitcoin a lot.
I am more worried about the next thing that will happen if either of them will get elected.
Ain't there a third man to vote for? 

[usekevin]

  In 2016, I noticed that the bitcoin Bull Run started right after the US election.
I don't know if this is due to huge of US$ Printing. Maybe a lot of money was printed just before the election which can be seen in the market after the election.
>>>>>>>>What about Your opinion? <<<<<<<<<<<<

The election in US will surely reflect and affect the money flow in the country.If the flow is high,surely it reduce the price of bitcoin further more.In such situations,holding is the best option.If the price of US dollar will be reduced,surely it panic the trader and make to sell their holding bitcoin at less price.

[Distinctin]

I'd never had to expect such influence on the market. Unless if they use Bitcoin for their campaign, converted it to fiat, making a huge demand for ads? Probably not all US citizens are using Bitcoin has made the price either to dump or pump. The up and down sentiment will never change because of the said election, a lot of factors affecting this, and it might be just a big coincidence if that so happening and the price will be bullish.

[Lucius]

Long-term, a Biden presidency is probably somewhat worse for Bitcoin, since his administration will be more anti-Bitcoin and will be much more likely to put forward harmful regulations. (Not that Trump is super pro-Bitcoin or anything...) I wouldn't expect these sorts of long-term predicted effects to cause much shorter-term price action, though, other than maybe a very-short-term panic crash.

Judging by various polls and research, most prefer Biden - but it seems to me personally that Trump still has some ace up his sleeve. What worries me is that Trump has already mentioned some election fraud, the influences of various external forces and we have not yet heard that someone deliberately infected him with Covid-19 just to lose the election. I'm not sure how many complications Trump can make if he doesn't win - but I have to admit I'm not at all clear of what Biden can be expected to do.

You are obviously better informed about what Biden and the people around him think about Bitcoin, and according to your comment, it seems that Biden is at least a little more against Bitcoin then Trump. But how much damage or benefit one person can do in this regard, because they say that Trump allegedly ordered in 2018 that some services seriously deal with Bitcoin, but today it is more than obvious that nothing drastic has happened.

[n0ne]

The US election will surely have some impact over the bitcoin market. If Trump once again gets elected there won't be big disturbance in the market, but if the opponent Biden comes I expect some wild fluctuation in the market upward or downward. Probably before the election date too there is chance of market crash to some point, because it will be the time to invest and expect profit based on the outcome after polling.

[hahay]

Not sure because it might just be a coincidence, and maybe the next bull run will be the same but still, it happened after a year of the halving happened and not about the US election. But whatever your view on it, I don't think there is anything wrong as long as you can use that moment to make a profit, if you realize it then I think it is a strategy that might be good for you.

[exstasie]

I tend to visualize the price of Bitcoin as being composed of two components: a "digital gold" component which will behave similarly to gold, and a "risk asset" component which will behave like leveraged exposure to the S&P 500. (Neither with 100% correlation, of course, since Bitcoin is its own thing.) The gold component is maybe 20% of the price currently, while the risk-asset component is maybe 80% of the price, so the risk-asset component usually dominates.

I hadn't thought of it in these terms before. Excellent take.

I think that any clear resolution to the election will boost risk assets significantly in the medium-term, Bitcoin included, since one of the biggest risks will be taken out of the picture. A chaotic, disputed election outcome will probably cause risk assets including Bitcoin to crash. If chaos lasts a long time, the "digital gold" component of the Bitcoin price may start to dominate more, and this may allow its price to recover more quickly than some other assets.

I think people are exaggerating the likelihood of a contested election. Trump isn't going to pull off a military junta or something if he loses. I also doubt the results would be so close to end up with recount drama like 2000. Even if they were, it would be resolved in a few weeks.

I put more emphasis on the risk asset correlation. A Trump victory means a continuation of corporate tax cuts and loopholes, pro-business regulations, etc. That's good for stocks, good for Bitcoin. A Biden victory means the opposite. We may see a major fluctuation prior to the election if it becomes abundantly clear one candidate is slated to win.

[Vishnu.Reang]

How can it have any impact on the Bitcoin prices, when both the candidates are indifferent to Bitcoin? When Trump won the elections in 2016, there was some hype that he will favor cryptocurrency. That hasn't happened. That said, Trump has taken a position that is not overly hostile to the idea of cryptocurrency. Don't know much about Biden's position on this issue. But I don't expect much from left-wing politicians.

[el kaka22]

I assume that if they do something about crypto it could maybe affect it, I have seen neither of them have anything about crypto in their platforms, they seem to be not even caring about it which is why I believe it is going to be irrelevant. Election in itself could affect the market because usually elections are a volatile thing in their nature but at the end of the day I feel like it is going to be not a big deal for any of us.

However if one of the candidates comes out and says that they are going to embrace crypto and they are going to make crypto business a lot more common or whatever that could definitely affect us, but do you really think that neither of those old people could be ever agreeing to something like that? They are too old to understand bitcoin.

[whyrqa]

I don't even know what can be assumed regarding the dependence of the US presidential elections and the situation in the cryptocurrency market. But world politics is very dependent on this event. At least for today, one can notice a certain dependence of the Russian ruble exchange rate, because if Biden's rating rises, the ruble exchange rate falls, and if Trump's rating rises, the ruble rises in value. But if we take into account Trump's negative attitude towards cryptocurrency and Biden's positive attitude towards cryptocurrency, then it is likely that there is still a certain connection between the results of future elections in the United States and future circumstances in the cryptocurrency market.

[lixer]

Honestly I haven't seen theymos write for so long, I understand that he doesn't roam around everywhere, there are places he goes and talks to and usually stays silent for the majority others but I guess making it about USA elections made him a bit more interested.

One can argue that he could be american as well from that. In any regards, I do not agree with him, there is only one thing that bitcoin compares to and it is digital gold, the other leveraged s&p 500 is only because there are times even gold can fall and during those times bitcoin is more volatile so acts a lot more radical while stock market goes down too, not like gold goes up every single day, it does fail to go up time to time and this is why people think they are related when that is not true.