I always thought that an RBF transaction can only spend the same UTXO with higher fees to the same address as the original transaction, not a new one like in OPs case.
You can read the requirements for an RBF transaction on the BIP125 proposal which nc50lc linked on the previous page -
https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/blob/master/bip-0125.mediawikiIn summary, the main requirements are that the initial transaction is opted in to RBF, the replacement transaction pays a higher fee than the one it is replacing, and the replacement transaction spends one or more of the same inputs. There is no stipulation made about spending all the same inputs or sending coins to the same addresses as the first transaction. Theoretically, a transaction could take 20 different inputs and send them to 20 different addresses, and could be replaced by a transaction sending just one of those inputs back to the same address it came from.
If you also see my post on the
previous page here, there is a type of RBF called "First Seen Safe" which essentially does as you are describing, but it is not used.
Are we talking 100%, taking into consideration that the 1st transaction doesn't get confirmed in the meantime and that the fees are much higher?
Nothing is ever 100%, and there are some nodes out there which reject all RBF transactions. However, if the first transaction isn't confirmed and is opted in, and the second transaction meets the requirements as above, then there is a high likelihood the first will be replaced.