A case of the pandemic changing the score and affecting sports betting

[kryptqnick]

The pandemic is affecting many areas, including sports. There've been discussions of how the home advantage doesn't fully come into play on empty stadiums, and on many events getting cancelled, resulting in people betting on stuff they would not normally be interested in. But yesterday happened something I did not think of before. It was football match France vs Ukraine. I've looked at predictions and France was expected to win, so the outcome of the match did not change. However, the score was predicted to be around 3-0, whereas Ukraine actually lost 7-1. One could think that things happen, and what does the pandemic have to do with an unfortunate game, but it has lots to do. According to Ukrainian Association of Football, due to traumas and positive COVID-19 tests more than a half of the current squad wasn't able to play yesterday. Three strong players tested positive on the eve of the match (with two more testing positive a few days ago), and Ukraine was left with only one goalkeeper.
This match went not as expected, but the outcome did not change, but this is just one case. What if the outcomes will change due to key players testing positive and weaker ones playing? Wouldn't it twist the games a lot, making them less predictable and less satisfying?
Do you think it's a big factor to take into account given the current situation?

[leea-1334]

Definitely. I think also in Champions League or Europa League cannot remember which one but odds did not change for one team that had to fight against a team from Estonia IIRC,,, they sent a team of youth players and reserves, and odds did not change. They lost big or something and still everyone was paid out. Wish I knew about it but only read in the news:) Good for those who can keep up.

[Coin_trader]

This is what I hate about sports betting about pandemic. The game was very unpredictable since we don't know who will play on the actual match because the team management didn't disclose the team roster night before the game. For me it's very risky even though the odds is below 1.5 since any moment, the key player might be out on the actual game.

As of now. I only bet on e-sports like dota2 and cs:go because they are not affected by the pandemic.

There's something bothering me. What if an e-sports team bet on the enemy all-in then decided to throw 1 game during qualifying match only. Do you think is that possible because I saw some games from a strong team that looks like they throw 1 game to an underdog team.  

[swogerino]

I agree,physcological conditions can impact the game result a lot.Not only on the specific game you are talking about but if we compare the first weeks of the Premier League to the weeks in the previous years you will see a big difference in results,the main one being less and less draws.

[pakhitheboss]

If strong players of a team get infected then obviously the result will be different. In short quarantine also cannot guarantee a players condition. Either ways this pandemic has ruined every sector. It is not only sports but sports related events like betting on sports are also getting affected. Imagine if France was facing the same issue then the match outcome could have been very different.

[goaldigger]

Athletes needs not just to be physically fit but also to be mentally fit in order for them to play well. Yes, the impact of this pandemic is not a joke but the team management has to do something about this one so the team will remain their composure and to remain healthy at all times. Playing on a big stadium with a less crowd is the new normal now, not until we finally beat this virus. France is a great team, they are more focus compare to their opponent and the result is win for them, a great battle of mind and body.

[Ziskinberg]

We are in a pandemic now, anything could happen, one player could be tested positive and the whole team will be shut down for a while.

Like this one ;
Juventus vs. Napoli off as visitors fail to show for game due to coronavirus quarantine

So as a bettor, we have to think of all the possibilities and don't be too confident with out bet especially if we are rooting on the favorites to win most of the time.

[Pffrt]

If you are placing bet on certain teams, you must have done the homeworks obviously. It is possible to know who will play or who won't as the team announce the squad long before the match starts. So, why would yoy only depend on your assumption? Check the squad and see who will play or who will not. Well, the outcome may also change but your expectation must not be as you can be informed.

[7788bitcoin]

This match went not as expected, but the outcome did not change, but this is just one case. What if the outcomes will change due to key players testing positive and weaker ones playing? Wouldn't it twist the games a lot, making them less predictable and less satisfying?
Do you think it's a big factor to take into account given the current situation?

It is true as i have encountered this while wagging bet on basketball and NCAA where there were many huge underdog wins with big odds simply because the favorite teams was not able to play the best team possible and i have seen the same situation in soccer too. Considering these situations the problem here is that you cannot place a bet well before the match as you never know with what team they are going to play and it is a real problem when it comes to betting stand point.

[Lanatsa]

This is what I hate about sports betting about pandemic. The game was very unpredictable since we don't know who will play on the actual match because the team management didn't disclose the team roster night before the game. For me it's very risky even though the odds is below 1.5 since any moment, the key player might be out on the actual game.

As of now. I only bet on e-sports like dota2 and cs:go because they are not affected by the pandemic.

There's something bothering me. What if an e-sports team bet on the enemy all-in then decided to throw 1 game during qualifying match only. Do you think is that possible because I saw some games from a strong team that looks like they throw 1 game to an underdog team.  

You cant tell but its possible but for sure on the time they had been caught on throwing up the 1st game then that will really raise up lots of question specially into fans and viewers.

You can also tell if they did really throw in purpose via seeing those gameplays that's why its really hard to execute if the said team decide to give it into the enemy just because they do bet out on the other side?

back to topic about sudden change in roster due to covid infection in last hour or minute then that's really a fucked up situation.You cant really be sure on what would happen even if theyre the favorites.

[ralle14]

This match went not as expected, but the outcome did not change, but this is just one case. What if the outcomes will change due to key players testing positive and weaker ones playing? Wouldn't it twist the games a lot, making them less predictable and less satisfying?
Do you think it's a big factor to take into account given the current situation?

They may not win the match but if they're able to hold down France to 3-0 it would be a big difference for the handicap bettors. There's a lot of cases that affected teams during this time like PSG went 0-2 as their starting players were still in quarantine. Recently in the NFL the Patriots' quarterback was tested positive and they're forced to play with a backup. That game ended up being close as the first half score was 6-3 an upset would've been possible if their quarterback wasn't infected.

[iv4n]

Definitely. I think also in Champions League or Europa League cannot remember which one but odds did not change for one team that had to fight against a team from Estonia IIRC,,, they sent a team of youth players and reserves, and odds did not change. They lost big or something and still everyone was paid out. Wish I knew about it but only read in the news:) Good for those who can keep up.

Last minute changes happens, and the majority is not aware of them! This story and the one from OP is similar, I think we can say that just some people knew what's really happening. Some of them could pass information to interested parties, and I believe that happens, maybe more often than we think! Simple there can be a huge profit for people involved, and once you get big money you will do try to do it again!

I agree,physcological conditions can impact the game result a lot.Not only on the specific game you are talking about but if we compare the first weeks of the Premier League to the weeks in the previous years you will see a big difference in results,the main one being less and less draws.

I heard for people who follow the psychological conditions of important players. They know if some close family member get sick, or something bad happens that can affect his mental state, also they know if something positive happens and if a player is totally ready for the game. To have access to information of this type you need to have contacts, you can read about all this in newspapers, or you can, but it will be after the game, that means it's already too late for placing bets!

Well conclusion is simple, if something (anything) affects the psychological state of player or players, that will affect the game and score!

[Slow death]

the pandemic is affecting many things and it would be no different with sports betting. But in case someone wants to bet on a game that person must first follow the news about the teams that are going to play and naturally that person will know who will play and who will not play and why the X players will not play , the news sites are very quick to give news 24 hours a day and in this time of pandemic it seems that they are even more active. so when it comes to sports betting for those who have been following the news, you won't be too surprised when a certain team wins or loses a game! now there is another factor that I also consider very important: "the rhythm". the pandemic continues to force many stops, which makes certain players on the teams have much more training than other players and the results can also be influenced by this reason

[Sadlife]

While its certain that the pandemic has affected certain teams in sports, there are proven solutions that could work to boost a players morale to play despite the pandemic.
We can see, virtual audience is effective for players to gain energy especially with a digital world. Its more easy to connect with many people in social media platforms.

[Wexnident]

Its a huge factor, forget about the trauma, just the fact that they had HALF of their main team out of the play for that match is enough for them to go down like that. If we add the trauma? Then hell, I wouldn't be surprised even if the match was cancelled, quite surprised it actually pulled through.

This match went not as expected, but the outcome did not change, but this is just one case. What if the outcomes will change due to key players testing positive and weaker ones playing? Wouldn't it twist the games a lot, making them less predictable and less satisfying?

Wouldn't it actually be more predictable, less satisfying? Mostly because you're watching a game with their main team vs a team with their main players being subbed out. I'm not underestimating the subs or anything, but the fact that they aren't the main players are more than enough of a testament that they wouldn't be able to hold that long against the main team of a famous team. The outcome didn't change, yes, but the end result as you said was quite different from expected, which means a lot imo.

[plvbob0070]

This can really be one of the dilemmas of having a match during a pandemic because even players armor exempted from possibly getting a virus. As you have said, the Ukraine team experiences problems prior to the match that's why they probably had a hard time coping up while practicing. I guess it's really best for the players if they have upcoming events, to take care of their health, and be more cautious to avoid problems like this, especially there's still a pandemic.

This pandemic is really affecting us in various ways, even sports betting.

[ethereumhunter]

If there are many more players positive Covid-19, there is no other way to cancel all of the sports because that can have riskier for each player. The Covid-19 is not going to end, and many people are worried about the infection. It's not just about the strong team or weak team, but it's about the whole team that will match because we don't know who will get the infection later. But we need to wait for more to see what will happen, and we hope that all players in all sports will be okay.

[robelneo]

but this is just one case. What if the outcomes will change due to key players testing positive and weaker ones playing? Wouldn't it twist the games a lot, making them less predictable and less satisfying?
Do you think it's a big factor to take into account given the current situation?

Yes of course it will have an impact testing positive in CoVid will have an impact on one's team even if it's not the star player, the star player is out of the game and the game will be very much different because plays that revolves around the star players will be delegated to weaker players and the play will not materialized at all making the team in big disadvantage.

The no audiences stadiums already made an impact on teams in various sports events, we really are in a different scenario. 

[qwertyup23]

If strong players of a team get infected then obviously the result will be different. In short quarantine also cannot guarantee a players condition. Either ways this pandemic has ruined every sector. It is not only sports but sports related events like betting on sports are also getting affected. Imagine if France was facing the same issue then the match outcome could have been very different.

I agree with you. The effects of pandemic especially in sports can be obviously seen especially on how players react nowadays. Just think of this, if one player gets affected by the virus, then the whole team is compromised already which would result to an unfavorable situation and an imbalance in betting. Imagine, you are rooting for a team to win JUST to find out that their star player got infected with the virus. This could actually be a game changer in the history of betting due to this goddamn virus.

While its certain that the pandemic has affected certain teams in sports, there are proven solutions that could work to boost a players morale to play despite the pandemic.
We can see, virtual audience is effective for players to gain energy especially with a digital world. Its more easy to connect with many people in social media platforms.

The virtual audience is indeed, a solution in order to boost morale of the team. But when you think of a home-court advantage, it speaks of crowds cheering the team and giving all the cheers for them. Even with the virtual fans all over the world, nothing can literally beat the spirit of a physical crowd cheering in a competition.

[dothebeats]

Psychologically, COVID-19 brought a low morale to sporting events, particularly to players who are sometimes using the crowd's cheer in doing better and playing better. Physically, the bubble-dome setups being used in most sporting events actually increases the risks of localized transmission of the disease, further hampering the morale and increasing the anxiety of the players inside the said dome. This may or may not reflect on bets, though, until after one contracts the disease and players lose their shit inside the dome. Normally, sporting events would continue as usual and H2H stats will still count as a reliable source of data for bettors since nothing much has changed except for the lack of audience in the field and a somewhat low morale from players constantly thinking whether they'll catch the virus or not. After all though, they are still the same players, playing the same game for years, and it is already ingrained to them to play well and beat the opponent whatever it takes, so yeah.