Fun facts for BTC close price, merit (whole), merit in WO

Fun-fact time-series plots for you.
No description because plots tell you the story.
Pay attention on multipliers

I didn’t know that the merit distribution in the observer thread Can be an indicator in when the price increases.Probably a lot of the members who are sending merits there have their positive and happy vibe and just feels giving away merit. Maybe give away BTC too? Lol Cheesy

Quote from: crwth on October 09, 2020, 02:04:17 AM

It is never wrong that when BTC has big changes in price, people will have more activity. It can come from their unstable mentality (happy, sad, panic, etc.)

Especially when they feel happy, in a good mood, they will easily to dump their sMerits. Think deeper, there are always people who feel happy and sad in opposite ways (in both pump and dump waves).

I don't have data on postcount (daily) in WO but I am sure postcounts in WO increase significantly when BTC has pump/ dump.

The emotional effects on merit distributions can be seen around holidays, Christmas, New year, Anniversary periods. If you notice, there are 3 spikes with merit time-series plot, the highest one (and the first one is when merit system was kicked-off), the second one (but is the third in value) is on September 2018 when the merit system was enhanced and old-era Junior members were demoted; the third one (but is the second highest in value) is about late of 2019 when the forum has its 10th anniversary and there was an Art contest -- besides that some members run merit give-aways for New year.

The problem is that the quantity supplied is not fixed or changed in a linear fashion, but rather changed several times indirectly, as numbers were added as merit sources away from the main list, and many members were given more points at different times.
The same is due to the disappearance of some members and the counting of others as sources of merit. All these factors make any similarity between them and btc chart a mere coincidence.

Quote from: hugeblack on October 09, 2020, 06:14:30 PM

Sure. We don't have enough data and needed variables to run analysis for finding real correlations between merits and BTC price as well as active members (differences in postcounts between periods when BTC is stable and when it moves hard (pumps or dumps), active merit sources and their merit-distributing activities.

What I gave you in OP are very raw picture but it can give you somewhat idea and maybe a potential correlation that need to be confirmed by better data (if you have it). Despite of lack of data for postcounts, the forum's ad stats can be used as alternatives.

Those charts can give you more ideas.

I will update the thread Impression counts for ads over years (Statistics) very soon (third quarter ended) and this time I will include merit variable into the dataset.