What could be the impact of the US election on currencies?

[crzy]

USA printed a lot of money in a very short-term period so no matter whoever comes to the leadership the value of the dollar is going to lose further and it is going to increase the price of bitcoin just due to the inflation on the fiat currencies. Creating a million jobs is not going to happen in real soon so these all are just political acts and nothing more.

They done during the pandemic season and I believe who ever wins on this election can make a big impact on the market, stocks and cryptomarket will move big after the US election, but you're right the result can't make a big change easily and maybe a short pump and after that, we will back to reality of facing so many financial problems. Many people lose their jobs, the government have to support first the small companies so they can start all over again and that create jobs to many.

[n0ne]

Right now the debate is much focused on job creation, because millions have lost their jobs. As a result more and more plans have been revealed stating creation of jobs.

Trump has put forth statements to restrict and make immigrant employees leave the country and prioritise job creation for US citizens. This will create some panic and the same will turn the vote against him from the immigrants who have got PR. Whoever wins is gonna support, so more chance of bullish trend from the day of revealing the results.

[bitgolden]

Latest polls are showing that Biden is leading by about 12 points right now, it is not even close right now and the elections are about 3 weeks away right now.

By comparison in the last elections where everyone saw Hillary as the sure winner for some reason, the difference was about 3-4% when it was around mid October, obviously there was polls that showed Hillary +10 as well but there was also polls showing Trump +5 as well, but the median average on October 10-15 polls was around 4 points for Hillary.

People still saw her as sure winner because Trump looked like a mockery candidate and not a serious thing, people even assumed Trump himself didn't expected to win. That 4 points was "sure thing" back in that day, today it is over 12 points and people still work hard to make it bigger to make sure Trump doesn't have a single chance. The difference between these two elections are like day and night.

[Vintry Dribbler 1975]

You haven't really given any examples of why you think the Trump scenario (or Biden for that matter) will affect the markets.  Unless there is a war, pandemic or apocalyptic disaster then the markets will fluctuate up and down - it always does.  If you're hoping to make your fortune on Crypto, then it would seem you are a decade too late unless you want to put a little aside each month until you retire.

[sana54210]

If Biden gets elected the dollar will be valued a lot better that is for sure, I know people assume just the opposite but I do not get where they are getting that data. Sure maybe the big companies may not get what they wanted but the bottom line will be protected a lot better.

Biden is a democrat candidate and even though he is as centrist as they get, dude at least is still center and not far right, Trump is far right which means the logic he has about "saving the economy" is not allowing the stocks to fall, that is why I think the real power of USD comes from the people and those people will be better under Biden. I am not american so I can't vote in this election but if I was and I wasn't a super wealthy person I would definitely vote Biden because he would take care of me better.

[Gozie51]

But Trump has created 1 million jobs and the dollar is at its best in terms of global value.

And this is what matters for the strength of the dollar. Job creation is important to the American economy and likewise any other too.
Example, when there is job, it builds the confidence of the citizen in the government.
It reduces different vices that youths can be involved in if idle.
It grows the GDP because production will increase and the economy will boom which will attract many positive relation in different ways. So whoever wins between Biden and Trump, job creation will be a plus to the dollar to rise and be stronger.

[Assface16678]

One thing is for sure, regardless of who will be the winner, the aftermath will make an impact to currencies. The actions of the elected individuals will be the catalyst of the "change" whether it would be good for currencies or not.

Either 1 of them will win the result will still the same since for sure they will look at the economic growth of the US after this pandemic hit so hard on them, although we will see some little changes since they have different strategies but for sure in the end I think they will pursue on what trump did if Biden win or continue to improve if trump will also win.

As you mentioned, the strategies of both sides are different.
And this creates a difference in the economic cycle as well as the presence of bitcoin in society.
We are unaware of government policies, and we may wake up one morning to see that bitcoin trading is banned!

Such thing is possible depending on the following "regulations" to be made once their term started. Let us just hope that the person who will win the election would give betterment to the economy. Right now, people in U. S. has no full control of the outcome but the consequence of the outcome will generate another outcome and that is guaranteed.

[exstasie]

If Biden gets elected the dollar will be valued a lot better that is for sure, I know people assume just the opposite but I do not get where they are getting that data.

Markets love certainty. That's why any resolution of a US presidential election has historically been good for the dollar.

To boot, the DXY has been downtrending since March and is due for a relief rally. These two factors combined make me fairly confident we're looking at a DXY rally in November-December. It could even be a long term accumulation bottom that's forming right now off the September lows ~ 91.7.

Biden vs. Trump......it's tough to say. I'm not sure. The DXY ranged sideways throughout Trump's presidency.

[pooya87]

If Biden gets elected the dollar will be valued a lot better that is for sure, I know people assume just the opposite but I do not get where they are getting that data. Sure maybe the big companies may not get what they wanted but the bottom line will be protected a lot better.

actually in think in short term dollar will tank if Biden wins because Trump has publicly said that he will act like a butthurt if he loses and the drama that he will create after his loss will create a lot of uncertainty in the the market and tank US economy for a while at least.

in long term however it won't matter who wins because the economy has been shrinking by a lot for a while now and all the large amounts of money they have been printing should show itself somewhere and we still haven't had the recession yet which can easily last 15 to 18 months.
on top of that all the wards Trump started during his term will take turn affecting USD value specially the one with China. the fact that many countries started thinking about decreasing their reliance on US dollar is a clear sign of things to come.

[Fundamentals Of]

It is hard to say whether the dollar will become bullish if either Trump or Biden would win. That's subject to debates and speculation. Even experts are not sharing the same outlook as far as the dollar versus the winning candidate is concerned.

But I can say that cryptocurrency will still gain progress regardless of whoever wins in the coming elections. Cryptocurrency does not depend on the political fate of the candidates and even the US. The world is now gradually accepting cryptocurrency. It is already in the mainstream. That is why whoever becomes the winner in the elections will not cause a decline to cryptocurrency's growth.

[Harlot]

If we are talking about "impact" as in it is directly connected to one another I don't think such thing exist but if we are talking about connections here in relation to speculation I think OP got it right. Whales or people who have influence in the market will take advantage on who wins the election as they know their ties and connection to cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies will be use as a trigger for these markets because in reality after winning the election they will just be bullish on that market but there is no immediate effect it will apply as soon as they are an elected official.

[coolcoinz]

If we'll have an impact it's going to be indirect, which means the election news will hit the stock market first, just like the lockdown did and the stock market will impact bitcoin and bitcoin other cryptocurrencies. Since the election is usually a nervous period, many investors prefer to stay out of the market ready to go back in when it's all over and they know there were no riots or anything like that, I think we'll go up in a few months.

[adaseb]

Well back in 2016 people assumed that if Trump wins the markets will go down, instead he won and there was the biggest bull market rally in stock market history.

Hence everybody assumes the same this time. So people will buy if Trump wins, however you all know what happens when the herd all goes into one trade, usually the opposite happens. Hence we might get a quick ATH and then surprise , the markets can start turning.

[goaldigger]

Well back in 2016 people assumed that if Trump wins the markets will go down, instead he won and there was the biggest bull market rally in stock market history.

Hence everybody assumes the same this time. So people will buy if Trump wins, however you all know what happens when the herd all goes into one trade, usually the opposite happens. Hence we might get a quick ATH and then surprise , the markets can start turning.

The US election has a biggest influence in the market and in cryptocurrency, I believe if Trump won again the market will still rise even if there’s a latest statement about the bloody market recently coming from Trump’s tweet. Biden can also result the same thing, we don’t know how the companies think and how the market behave, but this is an anticipated US election and almost 3 weeks from now, we will see the next trend of the market.

[ultrloa]

Well back in 2016 people assumed that if Trump wins the markets will go down, instead he won and there was the biggest bull market rally in stock market history.

Hence everybody assumes the same this time. So people will buy if Trump wins, however you all know what happens when the herd all goes into one trade, usually the opposite happens. Hence we might get a quick ATH and then surprise , the markets can start turning.

The US election has a biggest influence in the market and in cryptocurrency, I believe if Trump won again the market will still rise even if there’s a latest statement about the bloody market recently coming from Trump’s tweet. Biden can also result the same thing, we don’t know how the companies think and how the market behave, but this is an anticipated US election and almost 3 weeks from now, we will see the next trend of the market.

After all we really didn't know if that one really affect since there's no basis among those past claims regarding on Trump's victory and I will not gonna buy those things since maybe all of them are just hype. But let see the result if new ATH will come or the bull run came after trump wins then maybe I will convinced about that.

[ReiMomo]

It will affect cryptocurrency for sure. It's just that we're not sure of the effect will be bad or good. depends on who will win.

Trump has better experience and knowledge than Biden. However, Biden might be the possible reason why cryptocurrency will increase.
However, printing money has a major effect I can tell but on this upcoming election, I guess there is only a slight effect on all stock markets and bitcoin is include.

[exstasie]

Well back in 2016 people assumed that if Trump wins the markets will go down, instead he won and there was the biggest bull market rally in stock market history.

Hence everybody assumes the same this time. So people will buy if Trump wins, however you all know what happens when the herd all goes into one trade, usually the opposite happens. Hence we might get a quick ATH and then surprise , the markets can start turning.

Maybe. I'm a little uncomfortable making grand assumptions like that based on that massive sample size of 1.

I will say though, I am nervous given the trajectory of COVID-19, the threat of new lockdowns, and the general feeling of overconfidence that a vaccine will be effective and widely available next year. I think that in addition to all the QE and fiscal stimulus, the market has been pricing in a lot of hope and optimism since March. I can see a harsh shakeout on the horizon for that reason alone.

[jaberwock]

Well back in 2016 people assumed that if Trump wins the markets will go down, instead he won and there was the biggest bull market rally in stock market history.

Hence everybody assumes the same this time. So people will buy if Trump wins, however you all know what happens when the herd all goes into one trade, usually the opposite happens. Hence we might get a quick ATH and then surprise , the markets can start turning.

First of all stocks are down, there is no rally, it is down right now, you could say it is due to pandemic, and yes pandemic dropped the stocks, also killed over 200k+ people, worst in any nations, there are nations back on where they were before this all started and even higher, not USA, that is not pandemics fault, it is Trumps fault because if other nations can handle it, USA should have as well.

Secondly that "rally" you talk about came from trump cutting trillions of dollars worth of taxes from the companies that you saw stock market increase, and those companies had "one time" let off from taxes and that was it, they are back to worse than they were before that, so we could say trump didn't get 2 trillion dollars for absolutely no reason and created a bigger deficit for nothing as well. Basically dude did everything in the book about how you could ruin a nations economy.

[exstasie]

First of all stocks are down, there is no rally, it is down right now, you could say it is due to pandemic, and yes pandemic dropped the stocks, also killed over 200k+ people, worst in any nations, there are nations back on where they were before this all started and even higher, not USA, that is not pandemics fault, it is Trumps fault because if other nations can handle it, USA should have as well.

Where the hell have you been? Stocks are up on the year. The S&P 500 is up 6%, the NASDAQ is up 27%!

Secondly that "rally" you talk about came from trump cutting trillions of dollars worth of taxes from the companies that you saw stock market increase, and those companies had "one time" let off from taxes and that was it, they are back to worse than they were before that, so we could say trump didn't get 2 trillion dollars for absolutely no reason and created a bigger deficit for nothing as well.

No, it's not a one time thing. The corporate tax cut is permanent, until and unless it is repealed by Congress.

The tax cut enabled large scale corporate stock buybacks. That's probably the biggest reason that stock indices pumped so much the last couple years.

The Fed is restricting the biggest financial firms from engaging in buybacks to make them buttress cash reserves, but the restrictions only extend through the end of the year: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/federal-reserve-extends-limits-stock-buybacks-dividends-big-banks-policy-2020-10-1029640042