history loves repeating itself. the only question is when!

[3meek]

The last bubble was inflated when there was no margin in the market and CME traders who blew out the last bubble!
So I wonder if they can blow a new bubble when everyone can buy a long position?

[shoreno]

when you say so,is it really exactly the same?. because the news or whatever that affects the price of bitcoin every year is not the same. for example bitcoin is now being adopted by paypal, which in previous years this never happened. so whether it will be exactly the same as the previous year's chart history.

He didn't mean the repetition of events but he mean the repetiton of price but i think when price repeats that is still an event ? But there are actually events that repeat like when there is a company that accepts crypto and then they will drop the support for crypto but sooner or later they will adopt crypto again.

PayPal accepting Bitcoin is new and we never see this happen before  but this execution done by PayPal will possibly make the price repeat itself again .

[BrewMaster]

when you say so,is it really exactly the same?. because the news or whatever that affects the price of bitcoin every year is not the same. for example bitcoin is now being adopted by paypal, which in previous years this never happened. so whether it will be exactly the same as the previous year's chart history.

it depends on what you mean by "exactly the same".
is it exactly the same to see a year of bear market with about 80% drop followed by months of accumulation where FUD is spread about a huge drop right before price rises 100%? then yes it was exactly the same.

is it exactly the same to see the rally start slowly after that accumulation with some drops caused by panic sells while the long term is still rising? then again it is exactly the same.

....

it doesn't have to be repetition of previous year but the past 3 years are the repetition of the 3 years before 2017 (from 2014 to 2017 and now from 2017 to 2021 is being repeated).

[bitbunnny]

when you say so,is it really exactly the same?. because the news or whatever that affects the price of bitcoin every year is not the same. for example bitcoin is now being adopted by paypal, which in previous years this never happened. so whether it will be exactly the same as the previous year's chart history.

it depends on what you mean by "exactly the same".
is it exactly the same to see a year of bear market with about 80% drop followed by months of accumulation where FUD is spread about a huge drop right before price rises 100%? then yes it was exactly the same.

is it exactly the same to see the rally start slowly after that accumulation with some drops caused by panic sells while the long term is still rising? then again it is exactly the same.

....

it doesn't have to be repetition of previous year but the past 3 years are the repetition of the 3 years before 2017 (from 2014 to 2017 and now from 2017 to 2021 is being repeated).

There is no exactly the same situation, especially when it comes to Bitcoin. Besides, conditions in the market are never the same and there are so many factors and circumstances that might affect Bitcoin price.
History might repeat but that is not the only argument you can stick to to predict possible price growth, in crypto world that doesn't count.

[beerlover]

There is no exactly the same situation, especially when it comes to Bitcoin. Besides, conditions in the market are never the same and there are so many factors and circumstances that might affect Bitcoin price.
History might repeat but that is not the only argument you can stick to to predict possible price growth, in crypto world that doesn't count.

Different people are having different perceptions. I am seeing this year very much similar to 2016 regardless of what we had due to pandemic. I mean that even world economy got suffered due to consequences of pandemic, bitcoin must need to be performing like gold as gold and bitcoins are falling into same category compared to stocks and other bonds which are related to economy of a country.

Moreover, we are going to see a new ATH by the end of this year which will make us to assume that potential of bitcoin is more than enough to defeat the consequences of pandemic. This way history will repeat itself and I am not having any doubts about its timing as well because I am foreseeing the possibilities of coinciding time frame as well.

[daarul50]

The last bubble was inflated when there was no margin in the market and CME traders who blew out the last bubble!
So I wonder if they can blow a new bubble when everyone can buy a long position?

This. Is critical to consider.
Someone could make $1million usd out of $10k with his positions in short time during the bubble , can we really compare the good old days circumstances to the recent event that the market itself has changed a lot.
There maybe a periodic increment instead a shock increase 100% within the day now like 2% steady increases in 3 days or something like that.
Will we see a $3000 to $6000 over the night again? I wish so but realistically it is hard too see it nowadays.

[deisik]

it doesn't have to be repetition of previous year but the past 3 years are the repetition of the 3 years before 2017 (from 2014 to 2017 and now from 2017 to 2021 is being repeated)

History may love to repeat itself, but does it teach us anything?

I daresay history teaches us little except how little we learn from it. And if you think about it, this repetition (and many other such repetitions) is the genuine proof of that since if we were to learn something, let's say a trick or two, we wouldn't see it repeated again and again, would we? Regarding the question of when, we can draw on this regretful fact. More specifically, we should expect coming back to square one as soon as most people forget what they have been supposed to learn

[BrewMaster]

There is no exactly the same situation, especially when it comes to Bitcoin. Besides, conditions in the market are never the same and there are so many factors and circumstances that might affect Bitcoin price.
History might repeat but that is not the only argument you can stick to to predict possible price growth, in crypto world that doesn't count.

i agree, and i also always say that history doesn't have to be repeated.
but is the conditions in the market really different?

most of them are very similar and are being repeated in pretty much the same way as 2016 and 2017. i already covered price and volume which can be seen on charts. we have more adoption from regular people to institutional investors which is a lot more than before. we also have more countries changing their laws to adopt bitcoin again similar to 2017. we have a lot of big names like paypal adopting bitcoin (like we had Steam, Microsoft,...).
we had scaling debate in 2017 which was keeping bitcoin back, now we have Corona that is doing it. but now we have fiat inflation that easily negates that.

it stands to reason to say that even though there are some differences but the main factors are still there and even though we may not see the same exact movement we can see a very similar one.

[FanEagle]

2021 suppose to be the year where everything great happens, it was like that way before the pandemic and it was seen like that even before there was any economical downfall in the world. The reason why it was seen like that was the 4 year cycle deal, during 2013 it was lower a bit, on 2014 it went up, in 2015 it crashed in 2016 it went stable and a bit up, in 2017 it was normal actually but on the last days it went up, and we did the same thing now for the past 3 years once again.

This means either by the end of this year like 2017 suggested or maybe start of 2018 with the halving and all and the cycle, we should be basically going up, that is at least what the history tells us, will it happen? I wouldn't know but it definitely does look like that for time being.

[TitanGEL]

I'm a trader whose main forte is technical analysis, I also believe that history itself loves repeating especially in charts. Kindly look the DNA of the bitcoin wherein there is also a breakout that is look a like on what happened in these previous days in the chart. The price is now hovering at between $13300-$14,000. I thought yesterday that the price will hold above $14,000 levels after the closing handle did that. There is a red candle appeared in this day so there is a high possibility that it already hit the resistance and it will retrace in these following days. That is just my expectation and I will still follow the plan that I created.

For those traders who do not know when will enter in the trade, I think it is better if to understand and study the recent price movement of the bitcoin. The pattern are always repeating and like what I said that history repeat itself. It is just a cycle and a trader or investor should understand it and became aware on what it is in order to maximize the gains.

[BrewMaster]

I thought yesterday that the price will hold above $14,000 levels after the closing handle did that.

i didn't really expect it to keep rising after getting close to $14k let alone break the $14k itself. it is back to my original post about "history repeating". you see we are not yet at the end of the cycle to see gigantic rises nonstop. it is just a start and we should expect only small rises like this with lots of small corrections but each time setting a new high. this trend will continue unless there is some unexpected big thing happens.

[sana54210]

There is no exactly the same situation, especially when it comes to Bitcoin. Besides, conditions in the market are never the same and there are so many factors and circumstances that might affect Bitcoin price.
History might repeat but that is not the only argument you can stick to to predict possible price growth, in crypto world that doesn't count.

i agree, and i also always say that history doesn't have to be repeated.
but is the conditions in the market really different?

most of them are very similar and are being repeated in pretty much the same way as 2016 and 2017. i already covered price and volume which can be seen on charts. we have more adoption from regular people to institutional investors which is a lot more than before. we also have more countries changing their laws to adopt bitcoin again similar to 2017. we have a lot of big names like paypal adopting bitcoin (like we had Steam, Microsoft,...).
we had scaling debate in 2017 which was keeping bitcoin back, now we have Corona that is doing it. but now we have fiat inflation that easily negates that.

it stands to reason to say that even though there are some differences but the main factors are still there and even though we may not see the same exact movement we can see a very similar one.

Being "similar" and repeating are different things, there could be some similar stuff but when it is repeating that usually means there is connection between one thing leading to another thing and that repeats itself all the time which means in the future when we see one thing we will assume we know what it will lead to and invest accordingly.

That is not the case here, of course there are things that are similar, sure there was halving which lead to increase in price, both years, but that doesn't mean each halving will equal to increase in price forever, that is not really the case or that is what I at least assume. So yeah, see the similarities but do not assume just because A lead to B years ago, same A will ever lead to B, it may do that but it may not do it as well.

[Mahanton]

I thought yesterday that the price will hold above $14,000 levels after the closing handle did that.

i didn't really expect it to keep rising after getting close to $14k let alone break the $14k itself. it is back to my original post about "history repeating". you see we are not yet at the end of the cycle to see gigantic rises nonstop. it is just a start and we should expect only small rises like this with lots of small corrections but each time setting a new high. this trend will continue unless there is some unexpected big thing happens.

Already anticipating for something to happen but hopefully there wont really be some big issues that would just suddenly pop out just like some exchange hacks or something like that because
it do usually drive the price down and go back to square one on where we do really struggle to break on.For now we are playing in levels of 14k and hope that this will be the new support
and we would really be heading up to 15k again and with these gradual pumps and breaks then its not too long for us to see that previous ATH that we are aiming for.
It will surely be not on this year but we are indeed heading there but theres no definite time in talks to that.Nothing can be assured when in talks of future movements.

[deisik]

It will surely be not on this year but we are indeed heading there but theres no definite time in talks to that.Nothing can be assured when in talks of future movements

Personally, I won't be surprised if we see a new ATH next week

I remember many times when people were saying things like these (not this year, not in our lifetime, etc), and then, all of sudden, we jumped right there overnight. Well, maybe not strictly overnight but well beyond anyone's reasonable expectations. Somehow, 20k and above looks and feels like an easy target now. Whether we are going to settle there for long is another matter, though

[BrewMaster]

Being "similar" and repeating are different things, there could be some similar stuff but when it is repeating that usually means there is connection between one thing leading to another thing and that repeats itself all the time which means in the future when we see one thing we will assume we know what it will lead to and invest accordingly.

the trend and all the things causing the trend are the same. that is the only thing that matters.

but that doesn't mean each halving will equal to increase in price forever,

true but as long as everything else is the same, it will lead to huge price rises. and it is not just halving. halving is a very small part of it. the biggest part is the demand for bitcoin (aka adoption) that is increasing and causes the big price rises.

Personally, I won't be surprised if we see a new ATH next week

i would be very surprised. ATH is a very different matter compared to these current rises. historically reaching ATH has been very hard because there is a ton of sell off as we get closer to it.

[daarul50]

Inspite of fall the rise is sure, and this over the years we have seen that bitcoin will bounce back though the time could be a factor which is uncertain. But those who can wait and have patience could make good money and have seen how after falling till 3k those who had started buying from those levels consciously would have made money like 3-4 times by now. With proper short and long term plans you will make money with bitcoin.

Looks like you are not paying attention to what i am saying , you dont get my point.

It will surely be not on this year but we are indeed heading there but theres no definite time in talks to that.Nothing can be assured when in talks of future movements

Personally, I won't be surprised if we see a new ATH next week

I remember many times when people were saying things like these (not this year, not in our lifetime, etc), and then, all of sudden, we jumped right there overnight. Well, maybe not strictly overnight but well beyond anyone's reasonable expectations. Somehow, 20k and above looks like an easy target now. Whether we are going to settle there for long is another matter, though

Maybe we will not see anymore a 100% rise within a day but we have seen bitcoin price so steady climb up from 2% daily to 5% daily , this is the new normal of bitcoin skyrocketing.
Nobody realize we are on 14000 level now while the time flies from last month level of desperate 10000 usd.
We are really heading to new ATH in new style!
Isnt it so excitimg? Cannot wait for the new year to come and we will see you guys on top of the moon.

[deisik]

It will surely be not on this year but we are indeed heading there but theres no definite time in talks to that.Nothing can be assured when in talks of future movements

Personally, I won't be surprised if we see a new ATH next week

I remember many times when people were saying things like these (not this year, not in our lifetime, etc), and then, all of sudden, we jumped right there overnight. Well, maybe not strictly overnight but well beyond anyone's reasonable expectations. Somehow, 20k and above looks like an easy target now. Whether we are going to settle there for long is another matter, though

Maybe we will not see anymore a 100% rise within a day but we have seen bitcoin price so steady climb up from 2% daily to 5% daily , this is the new normal of bitcoin skyrocketing

It is all mind games and mental biases

I mean, how we internally foresee the future trends based on our understanding and recent dynamic. For example, if you are optimistic (maybe, overly optimistic), 20k may now feel to you as something within your grasp, so to speak. Conversely, the 5k that we still need to come over may feel like a big journey to you if are not that optimistic (let's say so). But still, we are already making second time highs, anyway you look at it, and we are certainly on track to making new historical highs

[3meek]

For a start it would be nice to get to the previous historical ATH! And then to get to the new highs...
However, I also think that now we are on the way to the new ATH!

[BrewMaster]

It is all mind games and mental biases

I mean, how we internally foresee the future trends based on our understanding and recent dynamic. For example, if you are optimistic (maybe, overly optimistic), 20k may now feel to you as something within your grasp, so to speak. Conversely, the 5k that we still need to come over may feel like a big journey to you if are not that optimistic (let's say so). But still, we are already making second time highs, anyway you look at it, and we are certainly on track to making new historical highs

you are describing and focusing on "point of view" but point of view doesn't shape the market, the actual buys and sells do. the acts that people are committing looks optimistic because the price is rising but the reality is that demand is increasing and with it the price.
if it were otherwise price should have never gone above $4k because everyone was saying they predict drop to $1k!

everything comes down to adoption, this time the adoption that were waiting to happen after seeing a positive signal. now that they are seeing it, they are dumping their fiat fast.

[deisik]

It is all mind games and mental biases

I mean, how we internally foresee the future trends based on our understanding and recent dynamic. For example, if you are optimistic (maybe, overly optimistic), 20k may now feel to you as something within your grasp, so to speak. Conversely, the 5k that we still need to come over may feel like a big journey to you if are not that optimistic (let's say so). But still, we are already making second time highs, anyway you look at it, and we are certainly on track to making new historical highs

you are describing and focusing on "point of view" but point of view doesn't shape the market, the actual buys and sells do

Indeed it all comes down to actual buys and sells

But they don't happen on their own. People buy and sell cryptocurrencies, and it is important to understand what is driving their decisions and motives that are behind these market actions. Regardless of real adoption, speculative games and FOMO can easily drive the price above 20k, and we won't necessarily have to wait till the end of the year or next year. It could just be next week. This is my point

For a start it would be nice to get to the previous historical ATH!

Essentially, we are already in that territory