MLB - Major League Baseball- Betting Thread

[ChiBitCTy]

I just wanted to open up an MLB gambling discussion thread.

I've not done much MLB betting myself and haven't see much about baseball betting around here so I thought I'd open this thread as well as do some betting on the upcoming games.  Anyone out there do much baseball betting and having any feelings on these upcoming games?

I sure was glad to see the Tampa Rays beat out the Yankees.  These should be great series! I hope to see the Braves vs Rays but think it'll end up being Rays vs Dodgers. 

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[wheelz1200]

As long as the Astros don't make im fine with it.  As a yankees fan that was brutal watching game 5 go down in flames like that but I'd still rather see the rays in the series than the astros.

As far as betting the AL games, I think the unders are going to be good bets here regardless of pitcher.  The rays bullpen is filthy and see this as a grind of a series.  Too hard to bet straight up baseball for me.

[ChiBitCTy]

As long as the Astros don't make im fine with it.  As a yankees fan that was brutal watching game 5 go down in flames like that but I'd still rather see the rays in the series than the astros.

As far as betting the AL games, I think the unders are going to be good bets here regardless of pitcher.  The rays bullpen is filthy and see this as a grind of a series.  Too hard to bet straight up baseball for me.

I couldn't agree more with your first statement.  As much as I despise the Yankees, I despise the Astros twice as much.  I mean cheating was one thing, but the way they came out and acted after getting caught was deplorable.  Acting like it was no big deal basically and still lying through their teeth about everything. 

I like your call about betting the under.  It really is all about pitching right now and you're right the Rays bullpen is absolutely straight up filthy.  Baseball is definitely hard to bet straight up, which is how I prefer to gamble.

[wheelz1200]

As long as the Astros don't make im fine with it.  As a yankees fan that was brutal watching game 5 go down in flames like that but I'd still rather see the rays in the series than the astros.

As far as betting the AL games, I think the unders are going to be good bets here regardless of pitcher.  The rays bullpen is filthy and see this as a grind of a series.  Too hard to bet straight up baseball for me.

I couldn't agree more with your first statement.  As much as I despise the Yankees, I despise the Astros twice as much.  I mean cheating was one thing, but the way they came out and acted after getting caught was deplorable.  Acting like it was no big deal basically and still lying through their teeth about everything.  

I like your call about betting the under.  It really is all about pitching right now and you're right the Rays bullpen is absolutely straight up filthy.  Baseball is definitely hard to bet straight up, which is how I prefer to gamble.

First game is a total of 6 runs hopefully the rest of the series plays out like that.  Throw up a blind under on each game not looking at the spread or pitchers.  Lets see how this strategy turns out 😅

[ChiBitCTy]

As long as the Astros don't make im fine with it.  As a yankees fan that was brutal watching game 5 go down in flames like that but I'd still rather see the rays in the series than the astros.

As far as betting the AL games, I think the unders are going to be good bets here regardless of pitcher.  The rays bullpen is filthy and see this as a grind of a series.  Too hard to bet straight up baseball for me.

I couldn't agree more with your first statement.  As much as I despise the Yankees, I despise the Astros twice as much.  I mean cheating was one thing, but the way they came out and acted after getting caught was deplorable.  Acting like it was no big deal basically and still lying through their teeth about everything.  

I like your call about betting the under.  It really is all about pitching right now and you're right the Rays bullpen is absolutely straight up filthy.  Baseball is definitely hard to bet straight up, which is how I prefer to gamble.

First game is a total of 6 runs hopefully the rest of the series plays out like that.  Throw up a blind under on each game not looking at the spread or pitchers.  Lets see how this strategy turns out 😅

The difficult thing about baseball betting is games are just so unpredictable.  The Rays sure came out to play, obviously we are both happy about that!  I am kind of feeling the over for the O/U on the Dodgers game today.  The O/U is 7.5.  Kershaw is pitching for the Dodgers and normally I would be betting the under when he's on the mound, but he has a history of getting lit up in the playoffs, so I'm going over for that game. Not sure if there's a good bet for this Rays/Astros game though.

[wheelz1200]

As long as the Astros don't make im fine with it.  As a yankees fan that was brutal watching game 5 go down in flames like that but I'd still rather see the rays in the series than the astros.

As far as betting the AL games, I think the unders are going to be good bets here regardless of pitcher.  The rays bullpen is filthy and see this as a grind of a series.  Too hard to bet straight up baseball for me.

I couldn't agree more with your first statement.  As much as I despise the Yankees, I despise the Astros twice as much.  I mean cheating was one thing, but the way they came out and acted after getting caught was deplorable.  Acting like it was no big deal basically and still lying through their teeth about everything.  

I like your call about betting the under.  It really is all about pitching right now and you're right the Rays bullpen is absolutely straight up filthy.  Baseball is definitely hard to bet straight up, which is how I prefer to gamble.

First game is a total of 6 runs hopefully the rest of the series plays out like that.  Throw up a blind under on each game not looking at the spread or pitchers.  Lets see how this strategy turns out 😅

The difficult thing about baseball betting is games are just so unpredictable.  The Rays sure came out to play, obviously we are both happy about that!  I am kind of feeling the over for the O/U on the Dodgers game today.  The O/U is 7.5.  Kershaw is pitching for the Dodgers and normally I would be betting the under when he's on the mound, but he has a history of getting lit up in the playoffs, so I'm going over for that game. Not sure if there's a good bet for this Rays/Astros game though.

I think Kershaw just got bumped.  Dont know right now how that will effect things but if ypu got locked in at 7.5 runs for the over than Kershaw got bumped thats a bonus, the total runs will definately go up with kersh out.  Good luck!

[wheelz1200]

Nice hit.  The game is at 7-3 right now the over was a solid bet.  Still riding the under on the American league championship series.  Its 1-0 after 2 innings hoping for a couple innings of goose eggs.  Probably should have just rode your bet and I wouldn't have to sweat this one out   

[ChiBitCTy]

Nice hit.  The game is at 7-3 right now the over was a solid bet.  Still riding the under on the American league championship series.  Its 1-0 after 2 innings hoping for a couple innings of goose eggs.  Probably should have just rode your bet and I wouldn't have to sweat this one out   

Yeah despite Kershaw not pitching I still liked the over for this game and went with it.  Helped offset some of my NFL losses this week lol.  

Amazing to see how well the Rays and Braves are doing.  I can't stand the Dodgers almost as much as I can't stand the Astros so it is great seeing them go down 0-2 as well. Not sure if I'm going to be these two games today however.  Anyone have any feelings on todays games?

[tyKiwanuka]

The difficult thing about baseball betting is games are just so unpredictable.

I would say Baseball/MLB is unbetable (sp ?), but did you ever think about why it is so unpredictable ? I thought about that very often, when I was following MLB some years ago and occasionally bet on it - but never with high stakes fortunately. Till now, this for me is still the hardest sport/league to bet on and I had bets on basically anything in my life.

I came to this conclusion in no particular order:

1) There are too many games.

162 regular season games in a span of 6 months - thats 27 games per month, phew. If you have such many games, there is lots of room for error and one single game/loss doesn't matter. As such, the players don't bother with losing games, since you will have the next game just around the corner, where you can win again. I am a firm believer that every professional athlete, no matter how rich, has a lot of idealism in him and hates to lose. But if you do something day in day out for 6 months, this eagerness to compete and win deadens a bit. So you just go out, do your stuff and check the scoreboard after 9 innings. If you win, fine, if not, fine as well, tomorrow is the next game.

2) There are no secrets.

The MLB (and all other major sports in US) is very well covered. There is no stat you can think of that is not publicly available, you have media coverage of all happenings 24/7, you can watch every game live and every little news that could influence the outcome spreads like a wildfire - so how can you get an edge betting on MLB as a single person or even a group working together ?!

3a) Baseball is a game of luck.

I mean short-term here, but this a bold and debatable statement Longterm the better teams come out on top, but the result of a single game is often a product of very little details.
This starts with the refs having their individual strike zone, which is part of the game since ages, but kind of pathetic in these digital times. And believe it or not, it's priced into the odds as well.
The result of a batter hitting the baseball and what comes out of it is a matter of millimetres and I doubt that even the best batters have that much control over it. They swing and maybe hit, but if they hit the baseball in the sweet spot or 1mm higher or lower is just luck. Thus you as a punter never know when luck strikes (no pun intended) and you have a homerun or just another easy out for the opponent. And even the players do not know, so how should you.

3b) The difference in quality is not very big.

Most teams are pretty evenly matched, in contrast to NFL or NBA for example. I don't know why this is the case, because there are so many players and theoretically the more players the bigger the difference in quality. Maybe it's because there is only one skill position (Pitcher) and the other positions can be learned and mastered relatively easy ?

These two points are also the reason, why you rarely see odds under 1.50 in MLB, anything can happen in any game due to the above.

4) The odds are very well compiled.

This is also a result of point 2 and the huge databases - also from the past - Vegas has available. In general I don't think there is lots of value to be found in Baseball odds. Beating the vig is already a huge challenge, although it's not really big in MLB. Beating the vig and making some profit on top is nearly impossible, if we look yield-wise at least. You can for sure generate lots of turnover with all those gazillions of games and high betting limits, but you will most likely have to work with something around the 1% mark or even lower. Not sure if thats worth all the hassle you have to go through by trying to be successful in MLB - and you better know what you are doing, i.e. treat this as a full-time job, when creating lots of turnover in MLB.

[wheelz1200]

Nice hit.  The game is at 7-3 right now the over was a solid bet.  Still riding the under on the American league championship series.  Its 1-0 after 2 innings hoping for a couple innings of goose eggs.  Probably should have just rode your bet and I wouldn't have to sweat this one out   

Yeah despite Kershaw not pitching I still liked the over for this game and went with it.  Helped offset some of my NFL losses this week lol.  

Amazing to see how well the Rays and Braves are doing.  I can't stand the Dodgers almost as much as I can't stand the Astros so it is great seeing them go down 0-2 as well. Not sure if I'm going to be these two games today however.  Anyone have any feelings on todays games?

Just sticking with my under theory.  If I had to place bets I'd place an under on the rays game and then I'd bet the dodgers straight up.  This is essentially a do or die game for them and they have the talent to will a win here.  Those would be the way id bet the games

[wheelz1200]

Just made the under with the rays and astros at 4-3.  I'm going with the under again on this next game, riding the under

And I'd take the dodgers again, they destroyed the braves and can see them following that up with another powerful win

[wheelz1200]

what does everyone think of the rays versus the dodgers.  This seems like a very even series.  Im thinking of just laying in the under for every game and hope for some tight battles.  Both starting and bullpens are good so think that's the route I'm taking.  Anyone else??

[ChiBitCTy]

what does everyone think of the rays versus the dodgers.  This seems like a very even series.  Im thinking of just laying in the under for every game and hope for some tight battles.  Both starting and bullpens are good so think that's the route I'm taking.  Anyone else??

Having lived in St Pete for quite a while, I'm a pretty big Rays fan.  I lived there for a summer before moving there..back in 2004, they'd have a college night and if you brought a canned good and 5 dollars you could sit anywhere you wanted lol.  This is of course a bit different for my Cubbies and Wrigley. 

I sadly think the Dodger will take it. They paid for the talent.  But just goes to show how good the Rays system is. No money to keep or bring in good players, so they just keep producing an unbelievable farm system.  One advantage they have is the empty stadium, they are very used to that lol

[ChiBitCTy]

The difficult thing about baseball betting is games are just so unpredictable.

I would say Baseball/MLB is unbetable (sp ?), but did you ever think about why it is so unpredictable ? I thought about that very often, when I was following MLB some years ago and occasionally bet on it - but never with high stakes fortunately. Till now, this for me is still the hardest sport/league to bet on and I had bets on basically anything in my life.

I came to this conclusion in no particular order:

1) There are too many games.

162 regular season games in a span of 6 months - thats 27 games per month, phew. If you have such many games, there is lots of room for error and one single game/loss doesn't matter. As such, the players don't bother with losing games, since you will have the next game just around the corner, where you can win again. I am a firm believer that every professional athlete, no matter how rich, has a lot of idealism in him and hates to lose. But if you do something day in day out for 6 months, this eagerness to compete and win deadens a bit. So you just go out, do your stuff and check the scoreboard after 9 innings. If you win, fine, if not, fine as well, tomorrow is the next game.

2) There are no secrets.

The MLB (and all other major sports in US) is very well covered. There is no stat you can think of that is not publicly available, you have media coverage of all happenings 24/7, you can watch every game live and every little news that could influence the outcome spreads like a wildfire - so how can you get an edge betting on MLB as a single person or even a group working together ?!

3a) Baseball is a game of luck.

I mean short-term here, but this a bold and debatable statement Longterm the better teams come out on top, but the result of a single game is often a product of very little details.
This starts with the refs having their individual strike zone, which is part of the game since ages, but kind of pathetic in these digital times. And believe it or not, it's priced into the odds as well.
The result of a batter hitting the baseball and what comes out of it is a matter of millimetres and I doubt that even the best batters have that much control over it. They swing and maybe hit, but if they hit the baseball in the sweet spot or 1mm higher or lower is just luck. Thus you as a punter never know when luck strikes (no pun intended) and you have a homerun or just another easy out for the opponent. And even the players do not know, so how should you.

3b) The difference in quality is not very big.

Most teams are pretty evenly matched, in contrast to NFL or NBA for example. I don't know why this is the case, because there are so many players and theoretically the more players the bigger the difference in quality. Maybe it's because there is only one skill position (Pitcher) and the other positions can be learned and mastered relatively easy ?

These two points are also the reason, why you rarely see odds under 1.50 in MLB, anything can happen in any game due to the above.

4) The odds are very well compiled.

This is also a result of point 2 and the huge databases - also from the past - Vegas has available. In general I don't think there is lots of value to be found in Baseball odds. Beating the vig is already a huge challenge, although it's not really big in MLB. Beating the vig and making some profit on top is nearly impossible, if we look yield-wise at least. You can for sure generate lots of turnover with all those gazillions of games and high betting limits, but you will most likely have to work with something around the 1% mark or even lower. Not sure if thats worth all the hassle you have to go through by trying to be successful in MLB - and you better know what you are doing, i.e. treat this as a full-time job, when creating lots of turnover in MLB.

I completely forgot to read this the other day.  You make some great points here and some things I don't quite agree with, but overall pretty spot on.

1- Hell yes there are too many games.  I played baseball from like 5 years old throughout high school, love the Chicago Cubs with a passion..but I am sick of so many games. It waters the game and the brand down and the thing is most people who love baseball too feel the same way.  This is a big part of why baseball is really on hurt mode and the younger generation isn't nearly as interested. I still love baseball to death but I want like 100 games.  I didn't have as much to do as a kid like they do today with social media, gaming systems etc etc so I question sometimes if I'd be as big of a baseball fan as I am had I grown up in today's day and age.  They need to cut back games but they never will. They've got too many massive contracts out right now so if you cut an significant amount of days it will take so many years for them to make up for that income loss ..just no chance n hell they want to go through that ( even though they'd all still be filthy rich ).

2- You are right

3- I am sick of the human umpires.  They do have their own agendas back there and they are absolutely not needed back there to call balls and strikes..it's not 1925 anymore. and of course it's priced in to the odds..Vegas isn't stupid, those dudes are god damn so good at what they do. Sickens me lol

3b- I do not agree with you here. Teams really aren't evenly matched.  There are are big differences in the games best players and the games majority. Pitching isn't the only skill position and there is absolutely no easy position to play in baseball.  Baseball is fucking hard. VERY hard.  Catcher, 1st base, short stop and center field are the other very difficult positions to be really good at.  They each take a very different type of skill.  

4- I hear ya. It's just too much shit like this and that's why I've always been so much more in to betting the NFL.  I am still going to make some small bets on this series but nothing crazy.

Damn Dodgers..not a happy start for me.

[ChiBitCTy]

Well that was an ugly first game for those of us rooting for the Tampa Rays.  I had a pretty good feeling going in to this series that the Dodgers would end up taking this series, as much as I hope that doesn't happen.  Anyone have any feelings on tonight's game?  Right now LA is -130 and the Over/Under is at 8. 

[wheelz1200]

Well that was an ugly first game for those of us rooting for the Tampa Rays.  I had a pretty good feeling going in to this series that the Dodgers would end up taking this series, as much as I hope that doesn't happen.  Anyone have any feelings on tonight's game?  Right now LA is -130 and the Over/Under is at 8. 

I know it got blown out last night but I'm taking the under on all of these games regardless of pitcher.  There will be some tight games the whole series can't be an offense fest with the pitching clubs.  If I had to go at it I'd pick the dodgers and the under on separate tickets.  Parlays are too hard in baseball at least for me.

[tyKiwanuka]

3b- I do not agree with you here. Teams really aren't evenly matched.  There are are big differences in the games best players and the games majority. Pitching isn't the only skill position and there is absolutely no easy position to play in baseball.  Baseball is fucking hard. VERY hard.  Catcher, 1st base, short stop and center field are the other very difficult positions to be really good at.  They each take a very different type of skill.

Yes, probably. I never played Baseball, but by just following/watching the games, I always thought, well, it's not that hard and something that could be learned quite easily (compared to other things/sports); outside of the pitching. Since you played Baseball, what is so hard in mastering this game in the different positions, what are the obstacles ?

Most sports look easy, when you see them on TV....and once you try one of them on your own, you wonder why you are not able to be as good as those pros on TV. The throwing, catching, being fast with the transition and the tactics in Baseball I would still regard as rather easy to learn/improve/master. The batting is hard, especially with all those different pitchers, but what else is there ?

I played some Basketball in my younger years and this is really difficult imo. Learning the right throwing technique, being a good dribbler, having the vision, playing good defense etc. is hard. And it's a super physical sport on top, where I also missed some height in the end In Baseball I would think, ok, put me in as left/right fielder, give me good arm strength and precision and it might not get noticed, that I am an absolute donkey in his first game I know it's not that easy.....

[wheelz1200]

3b- I do not agree with you here. Teams really aren't evenly matched.  There are are big differences in the games best players and the games majority. Pitching isn't the only skill position and there is absolutely no easy position to play in baseball.  Baseball is fucking hard. VERY hard.  Catcher, 1st base, short stop and center field are the other very difficult positions to be really good at.  They each take a very different type of skill.

Yes, probably. I never played Baseball, but by just following/watching the games, I always thought, well, it's not that hard and something that could be learned quite easily (compared to other things/sports); outside of the pitching. Since you played Baseball, what is so hard in mastering this game in the different positions, what are the obstacles ?

Most sports look easy, when you see them on TV....and once you try one of them on your own, you wonder why you are not able to be as good as those pros on TV. The throwing, catching, being fast with the transition and the tactics in Baseball I would still regard as rather easy to learn/improve/master. The batting is hard, especially with all those different pitchers, but what else is there ?

I played some Basketball in my younger years and this is really difficult imo. Learning the right throwing technique, being a good dribbler, having the vision, playing good defense etc. is hard. And it's a super physical sport on top, where I also missed some height in the end In Baseball I would think, ok, put me in as left/right fielder, give me good arm strength and precision and it might not get noticed, that I am an absolute donkey in his first game I know it's not that easy.....

Its definately not just as easy as catch, throw, hit.  I mean you can break basketball down to just dribble, pass, shoot.  I mean technically if you practice you should be able to hit free throws all day but there are still professionals that can't hit free throws at a steady rate.

Left field and right field are especially hard.  You need to be able to identify the ball off the bat as its hit and its projected trajectory of where it will land.  Otherwise its all guessing and at this high of a level you won't last more than a coue of innings before they throw you in the minor leagues. You need to pretty much be right 100% of the time and then there is the actual skill of catching everybody whether on the run, in the sun, etc..

[ChiBitCTy]

Well that was an ugly first game for those of us rooting for the Tampa Rays.  I had a pretty good feeling going in to this series that the Dodgers would end up taking this series, as much as I hope that doesn't happen.  Anyone have any feelings on tonight's game?  Right now LA is -130 and the Over/Under is at 8. 

I know it got blown out last night but I'm taking the under on all of these games regardless of pitcher.  There will be some tight games the whole series can't be an offense fest with the pitching clubs.  If I had to go at it I'd pick the dodgers and the under on separate tickets.  Parlays are too hard in baseball at least for me.

Great seeing the Rays come back and tie up the series.  Had the Dodgers gone up 2-0 I would have really started to question whether the Rays had a chance what so ever.  Kind of surprised Kershaw did as well as he did, being that he normally gets rocked in the playoffs ( which is just such a weird phenomenon being that he's HOF in the making). 

Vegas has for tomorrow game Dodger at -155 and the Over/Under at -7.5.  I think I am going to bet the under as well.

[wheelz1200]

Well that was an ugly first game for those of us rooting for the Tampa Rays.  I had a pretty good feeling going in to this series that the Dodgers would end up taking this series, as much as I hope that doesn't happen.  Anyone have any feelings on tonight's game?  Right now LA is -130 and the Over/Under is at 8. 

I know it got blown out last night but I'm taking the under on all of these games regardless of pitcher.  There will be some tight games the whole series can't be an offense fest with the pitching clubs.  If I had to go at it I'd pick the dodgers and the under on separate tickets.  Parlays are too hard in baseball at least for me.

Great seeing the Rays come back and tie up the series.  Had the Dodgers gone up 2-0 I would have really started to question whether the Rays had a chance what so ever.  Kind of surprised Kershaw did as well as he did, being that he normally gets rocked in the playoffs ( which is just such a weird phenomenon being that he's HOF in the making). 

Vegas has for tomorrow game Dodger at -155 and the Over/Under at -7.5.  I think I am going to bet the under as well.

I lost both of those picks last night so maybe whatever I say you do the opposite.  Guess I'm going to have to stick to the plan and keep with the under.  They all can't be over right?!?  In my case the rest of the games will probably not only be over but will end up 11-9 games lol.