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[mk4]

Not sure of how a "shortage" of bitcoin is possible. Maybe I'm completely misunderstanding his definition of "shortage", but I'm pretty sure there will always be people selling bitcoin. The question is, at what price? Also assuming that there might be lot of people that are planning on selling at break-even prices(probably 17k-19k), a "shortage" might be a bit too farfetched at least in the mid-term.

[NeuroticFish]

At the rate of 900+ Bitcoins mined daily I would not really call it "shortage". But yes, everybody expects the price to get higher. And at a higher price more traders will probably also sell.
On the other hand, people discuss (in vain?) about "moon" since the halving.
Sooner or later it'll happen, but it's still not easy to say when.

[TGD]

There's a lot of early investor on Bitcoin that holding more than 1000BTC like the winkle twin, Roger Ver and so many anonymous early miners as we can see on the list of bag holder of BTC. They are still not moving there BTC until now and I believe they will sell some once this shortage happened and also there's a lot of traders(swing trader, institutional trader and other trader) that trading BTC, I'm sure they will flip there position once the price reach the point where shortage come.

And also there's a lot of alternative coins for Bitcoin that have almost same/better feature.

[Jet Cash]

This is something that I've been predicting for a couple of years. Bankers and investment houses are accumularing Bitcoin for at least two reasons. They created Bitcoin as an experiment, and built in limits to prevent it even becoming a major currency for daily transactions. In view of its success, they have  to reduce its popular usage, and the easiestway to do this is to accumulate coins in long term investment portfolios. This has two benefits - it increases the value of Bitcoin, and thus their wealth, and it provides them with large blocks of the asset with which to manipulate the market.

You can't fight it, but you can exploit it to your advantage.

[NeuroticFish]

Grayscale buys almost all the mined bitcoins and even more. How many of these 900 a day hit the free market? Of course, the bitcoins will be sold at any price at any time. Perhaps there will be a shortage for big players who will want to redirect their capital into bitcoins in the future, such as Microstrategy, Graysscale, who have tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of bitcoins in their assets.

If Grayscale buys 900+ and the price still doesn't grow steadily, I guess that there are still enough traders happy to sell at current price.
I am aware that overall the price grows a little, but that's imho far from what we'd see if there would be indeed shortage.
Imho shortage translates to "prohibitive price". Right now it's some sort of balance between how much big companies are willing to pay for Bitcoin and the availability. And this could translate into Grayscale actually buying less than 900 Bitcoin in many days. (Just my opinion, and I may be wrong, I'm not claiming to know everything.)

[piebeyb]

shortage of bitcoin because the bitcoin halving there are fewer and fewer people selling, it will make the price continue to increase, therefore I'm not sure that bitcoin price will go away again under $ 10k, it will keep on top of it and new people come to buy it's an investment, so let's look at it in the next year, I'm sure history will repeat itself as my previous predictions and analysis

[NeuroticFish]

So no one says that shortage is happening right now? This trend could lead to shortages in the future if large institutions increasingly pay attention to investing in bitcoin, and now. if you look at the Bitcoin Treasury site, there aren't that many to really create shortage in the market.

I guess that we may be arguing in the choice of words? I don't know.
In my head if institutions continue to buy massively no matter what (and of course that's not possible because the market regulates itself and they'll run out of money), the price will simply rise, more sellers will be available and there will be still no actual shortage.

But maybe I am missing something.
"Shortage" sounds as panicking and imho it's not the case. As I said, it may be the way we see the meaning of the words we choose.

[Gotumoot]

I don't think that we would ever have a shortage on Bitcoin since there would always be some people who would trade or sell their Bitcoin into Fiat not everyone could hold onto their crypto or even if we would miners would still be selling their mined BTC to take their profit and for their maintenance.
And we could always use the small unit of Bitcoin the Sat's or Satoshi.

[tsaroz]

Bitcoin supply for trading is surely being smaller with all the buy ins from corporate and hedge funds. As well due to freezing of bitcoin to created bitcoin based token.
Bitcoin itself is a new concept and no one is sure how the future of it be. The value would depend on the demand and the demand would depend on interest.
IMO, bitcoin is valued because it's an asset that can't be faked. It's limited in supply and easy to move. I don't think a huge price and limited of bitcoin circulating would have adverse effect on it's future. We've seen rare arts being traded and auctioned. I think bitcoin itself is a majestic art, having a part of it with yourself is both profitable and satisfying.

[pooya87]

shortage is never going to be possible in my opinion because of two very simple reasons.
first the amounts these handful of companies are buying these days are millions out of a total of $200 billion worth bitcoin. it is not going to affect anything in general (keep in mind not that many companies are doing it).
secondly it is because as more bitcoins are bought (for example if more companies started buying millions of dollars worth of bitcoin) we will see price jumps as the number of coins being sold (ie. supply) starts going down and those selling will start demanding more money for their coins. consequently something like $250 million that is worth about 20k bitcoin would only be able to buy them something like 5k bitcoin and it will keep going down until they have to buy 250 bitcoin with it!
that's what supply cap does.

[Debonaire217]

I don't think that we would ever have a shortage on Bitcoin since there would always be some people who would trade or sell their Bitcoin into Fiat not everyone could hold onto their crypto or even if we would miners would still be selling their mined BTC to take their profit and for their maintenance.
And we could always use the small unit of Bitcoin the Sat's or Satoshi.

It will fall to a possibility of two things, if whether Bitcoin's market price will sky rocket because of the demand of people to it. With this, many people would not likely to sell their Bitcoins. The worst case is when they all agreed to hold, that is when shortage will happen. But since there are tons of markets available to trade bitcoins, and they can still earn from trading and transaction fees, there will still be people who are willing to sell their bitcoins. Perhaps, the mining industry just like what you've mentioned is one of the entities that will still continue to sell bitcoin because they need to pay for their bills.

[witcher_sense]

Given that the future of bitcoin is still uncertain and the trend of every public company buying bitcoin as a reserve asset is not confirmed yet, it is too early to talk about shortages of bitcoin and there is no point to make any speculative predictions. What is shortage of money (bitcoin), anyway? It is a situation in which demand for money is way greater than supply of money. When total supply of money is fixed and demand for money increases, people start hoarding money and never spend it. This is called a shortage of money. Because of no one spending their hoardings, prices start to fall. Naturally, purchasing power of money rises. That incentives people to spend their money, because people don't need money per se, they need commodities they can buy with money. Demand for money is falling and prices rise again. There is no shortage of money anymore, because people spend not hoard. The market has cured itself.

[Lucius]

Grayscale buys almost all the mined bitcoins and even more. How many of these 900 a day hit the free market? Of course, the bitcoins will be sold at any price at any time. Perhaps there will be a shortage for big players who will want to redirect their capital into bitcoins in the future, such as Microstrategy, Graysscale, who have tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of bitcoins in their assets.

It is true that Grayscale buys large quantities of BTC, but this comparison with newly minted coins is really just a comparison of the ratio of what is mined daily to what is bought in the same period - but it is wrong to think that Grayscale is buying directly from miners if anyone thinks in that direction. I don't think there will be a shortage on the market until another Grayscale type company appears, because if we look at other companies, it's mostly a few thousand or tens of thousands of BTC in question.

This is not enough to create a shortage on the crypto market, and the best indicator that there is enough BTC is the current price. In other words, demand is still far less than the total supply that is available on the exchanges every day, and it should be taken into account that there is an OTC market that is difficult to estimate at all.

[dothebeats]

They will have to offload those coins some time, and I'm guessing that they'll do it once an ATH is reached. The numbers that they are buying are still far from the current market cap numbers ($200+b) and the total available, circulating supply which is somewhere in the 14m - 15m range. It would be a bit scary if one ballsy company decided to buy millions of bitcoins in one go, and it's not even remotely far from the truth considering that the asset has been receiving a lot of attention from institutional investors lately. Though at this point in time, it's just speculations that's running on the heads of those who pull the strings and IMO, aren't ready to commit for bigger stakes yet. Should the worse comes to worst, increasing bitcoin's divisibility is still an option we can take, though the market has to be fucked up so hard for that to happen.

[hatshepsut93]

Not sure of how a "shortage" of bitcoin is possible. Maybe I'm completely misunderstanding his definition of "shortage", but I'm pretty sure there will always be people selling bitcoin. The question is, at what price? Also assuming that there might be lot of people that are planning on selling at break-even prices(probably 17k-19k), a "shortage" might be a bit too farfetched at least in the mid-term.

Had exactly the same though, in my book "shortage" means you want to buy something, but you can't, because no one is selling. Kinda like meat or toilet paper in the glorious days of the Soviet Union. If you can buy, but the price seems to high for you, that's not shortage, that's just a sellers market.

What this observation really means is that people are hodling Bitcoin for now, they refuse to sell, so the price could be going up and up, but this is how a bubble is forming, eventually the price will get so high that everyone will understand that it has to crash, because those who have been hodling for long will be securing massive profits.

[cr1776]

"The COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences show that building traditional investment portfolios is a mistake and therefore institutions are increasingly paying attention to bitcoins."

It isn't just the Wuhan Coronavirus pandemic that is an issue.  It is the fact that people around the world should be putting some portion of their assets in crypto in order to protect themselves from the authoritarians (socialist, fascist, communist, whatever the flavor) who are constantly wanting to take over to gain power.  Crypto provides protection and portability for people who are victims of authoritarianism or collectivism or statism (e.g. Cyprus in 2013, Venezuela for the last 2 decades, Cuba in the 1950s-present, NK, Iran, Iraq, Germany in the 1930s-1940s, Zimbabwe, Hong Kong post 1997 and accelerating now).  Then you have Bernie Sanders/AOC/Harris in the US who want to push the US away from liberty toward collectivist.

Everyone worldwide should have some bitcoin to protect themselves.

[davis196]

There's no sch thing as shortage or deficit when it comes to Bitcoin.If the price goes up,more HODLers will be convinced to sell their BTC,therefore market shortage cannot be created.
A hypothetical market shortage or deficit can be created only if there are no active sellers on the market,which means that the BUY orders on all crypto trading platforms cannot be fulfilled at any market price.

[stompix]

Not sure of how a "shortage" of bitcoin is possible. Maybe I'm completely misunderstanding his definition of "shortage", but I'm pretty sure there will always be people selling bitcoin. The question is, at what price?

Maybe a shortage of bitcoins being sold at a certain x% from the current price, that would be possible, especially for OTC traders, they see that there are investors with deep pockets ready to buy in bulk, they know that those can't go directly to exchange as larger amounts would trigger a sharp jump in price so they are putting some pressure by raising their price too much compared to traditional ways.

Indeed it's a bit of a far-fetched scenario but it can happen temporarily for a short period as sooner or later the price will move in an area where more people are inclined to sell for, there are still a lot of holders that are aiming for $ gains. Not everyone can wait 5 or 10 years, I would prefer to buy a 4series convertible when I'm in my 30-40 rather than affording a Lambo when I'm 70.

Grayscale buys almost all the mined bitcoins and even more. How many of these 900 a day hit the free market?

900BTC a day, 90 days, 12500$, that makes around 1 billion while the entire record!! investment in Grayscale in Q3 and all their products was 1.2 billion, "with 57% of investment coming from multi-product investors in 3Q20"  andnot considering premium for fresh coins. No, they don't buy nowhere near all the newly mined bitcoins.

[GreatArkansas]

There's no sch thing as shortage or deficit when it comes to Bitcoin.If the price goes up,more HODLers will be convinced to sell their BTC,therefore market shortage cannot be created.
(...)

Agree, just like what stompix said above.
What I really believe is, if there are buying Bitcoins, there also people selling it. For me, shortage and price got connection here. There will be always a Bitcoin that for sale, all we should need is a fund for able to buy it. That's why a lot of people telling that we should start to accumulate Bitcoins now beause it may be expensive soon.