INDIAN ECON, POLITICS, SOCIETY + BTC PRICE

[amishmanish]

There isn't an Indian Politics and Society board.

We all shy away from politics here. I spend quite a lot of time on the forum and most things i read are people's opinions here. Just wanted to share a few thoughts about the state of our economy and politics. You are welcome to rant yourself if you want.

The way things have slid down for us economically in the years of this fucking stupid government, the uncertainty of COVID, the overall sentiment of hopelessness, i feel like we are back to the 90s time of "dog eats dog" world where you save every penny so that you have something to fall back on. I had hoped that the downturn over the last 4 years would have been a time of Indian companies building, acquiring technologies and young Indians establishing real-world startups. These hopes have been dashed by this over-promising government which just doesn't have the competence or the ideology to steer a 21st century economy. I don't want to fucking start wearing Khadi, make diwali pots and start watching nukkad-ramayan again. I thought we were past that but every time i open the news, watch Arnab Goswami throw tantrum like the country's bahu and see Mr. Pradha Sevak don his ever growing Osho styled beard, my heart sinks.

There, thats a weight off my heart for now. I hope things don't really go that bad as we simply cannot afford that as a society considering our demographics.

EDIT: BTW, This is what triggered me. No offense to Bangladeshi bandhus. Congratulations.

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[akram143]

I don't see any future plan from the current ruling party to save the economy fall happening since the demonetization.They just busy with the one nation one religion one language campaign and also building the temple.People even doesn't realize that their standard is going down when the whole world is moving uo in some way.

I don't know who can make the changes!

[Clement Kaliyar]

There, thats a weight off my heart for now. I hope things don't really go that bad as we simply cannot afford that as a society considering our demographics.

The fact is that we have stooped to a level of no return, the economy was sinking well before the corona pandemic and now the government will blame everything on the pandemic and the media channels blindly supporting everything the BJP government will run with that propaganda. If you look at all the media channels they really do not talk about the problems India is facing all they do is to add flavor with SSR and the drugs people are taking and for the past 3 months these channels were spreading the false narrative while ignoring the failures of the government.

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

Thanks for creating this topic. Though we don't have a dedicated board for discussing politics happening over in our country, I feel like topic can be used as a narrative political speech topic over the years to come along (like the WO thread) instead of creating a separate topic now and then for discussions. As far as our country is concerned, we have completely ruled out the job creating culture and more focused on getting a job for monthly salary. Many of us feel like, it's more safe and secured rather than taking the risk and starting up a business. This is one among the poorest mindsets which majority of us have and has been one among the core contributing factor for our country's increasing poor economy over the decades.

For instance let us consider the common scenarios which are happening over in our country for the past 2 decades

1. In the late 90s and early 2000's there was a craze of moving over to USA for higher studies and settling there permanently. Here in this case, the student finishes off his degree and moves over to USA and settles there for a $100,000 salary. This trend continued till the announcement of stricter Visa process in the Obama Rule. These millions of students haven't contributed anything to our economy rather than sending money to their parents and I would call this scenario as the beginning of our poor economical downturn.

2. Meanwhile during the late 2000's we have seen an increase of US based companies stepping in the Indian soil disguising themselves as job providers and thereby silently increase their net-worth and market share. In this case, we should have allowed only a handful of companies and similarly should have given equal opportunity for the Indians to create their own startups with announcement of various bank loans or kind of similar things. This increase of American companies increased the slave (job) count and people started earning lakhs of rupees per month immediately after finishing off their engineering degree or whatsoever. This indeed paved way for less startups and more creation of jobs which was certainly good for that decade but had a huge negative impact for the future.

3. Destroying Indian Startups by US tech giants and government : This scenario builds up on Scenario 2. Even if the students tend to start a business before they rise up, they are being destroyed by tech giants and new rules from the government. For example, in the mid 2010-2020 there were various startups to stream Indian movies legally but government and media officials prevented them stating that they are allowed to operate only outside India. This rule changed when giants like Amazon, Disney or Netflix stepped in thereby destroying the startup in the process...

Our country and its citizens has become a slave for the foreign nationals, we are overtly dependent on tech giants like bloatware and adware OS maker "Microsoft" but on the other side doesn't know what is BOSS Linux OS (An Indian OS based on Linux kernel) - well people here don't even know what is Linux instead! We trust foreign companies more than Indian companies - we are willing to work as slaves rather than creating jobs for our fellow citizens by creating a startup. If this doesn't change, we will be creating an even more poorer economy in future.

[pawanjain]

Thanks for creating this topic. Though we don't have a dedicated board for discussing politics happening over in our country, I feel like topic can be used as a narrative political speech topic over the years to come along (like the WO thread) instead of creating a separate topic now and then for discussions. As far as our country is concerned, we have completely ruled out the job creating culture and more focused on getting a job for monthly salary. Many of us feel like, it's more safe and secured rather than taking the risk and starting up a business. This is one among the poorest mindsets which majority of us have and has been one among the core contributing factor for our country's increasing poor economy over the decades.

For instance let us consider the common scenarios which are happening over in our country for the past 2 decades

1. In the late 90s and early 2000's there was a craze of moving over to USA for higher studies and settling there permanently. Here in this case, the student finishes off his degree and moves over to USA and settles there for a $100,000 salary. This trend continued till the announcement of stricter Visa process in the Obama Rule. These millions of students haven't contributed anything to our economy rather than sending money to their parents and I would call this scenario as the beginning of our poor economical downturn.

2. Meanwhile during the late 2000's we have seen an increase of US based companies stepping in the Indian soil disguising themselves as job providers and thereby silently increase their net-worth and market share. In this case, we should have allowed only a handful of companies and similarly should have given equal opportunity for the Indians to create their own startups with announcement of various bank loans or kind of similar things. This increase of American companies increased the slave (job) count and people started earning lakhs of rupees per month immediately after finishing off their engineering degree or whatsoever. This indeed paved way for less startups and more creation of jobs which was certainly good for that decade but had a huge negative impact for the future.

3. Destroying Indian Startups by US tech giants and government : This scenario builds up on Scenario 2. Even if the students tend to start a business before they rise up, they are being destroyed by tech giants and new rules from the government. For example, in the mid 2010-2020 there were various startups to stream Indian movies legally but government and media officials prevented them stating that they are allowed to operate only outside India. This rule changed when giants like Amazon, Disney or Netflix stepped in thereby destroying the startup in the process...

Our country and its citizens has become a slave for the foreign nationals, we are overtly dependent on tech giants like bloatware and adware OS maker "Microsoft" but on the other side doesn't know what is BOSS Linux OS (An Indian OS based on Linux kernel) - well people here don't even know what is Linux instead! We trust foreign companies more than Indian companies - we are willing to work as slaves rather than creating jobs for our fellow citizens by creating a startup. If this doesn't change, we will be creating an even more poorer economy in future.

Very well written @Heisenberg. We have indeed ruled out the job creation culture and I would say that it is completely our and the government's fault in this.
There are not many Government jobs out there and we all know what perspective do people have about the Government employees.
Also, not many people have the guts to do a startup. Most people either tend to do a business or join some company and prefer doing a job.
This is where things are opposite in foreign countries. There are so many startups getting launched each year in foreign and it is the same Indian people who go abroad for studies/job to join these foreign startups later on as they become well established.

The Indian government started the "Vocal for Local" clarion during the pandemic and things started to take a turn but we don't know yet if it has actually created an impact at large scale or not.
I found an interesting article about vocal for local and how the economic crisis in the past 2 decades destroyed our job creation culture while welcoming foreign brands in India. It quotes as below

The movement, which started in the early 1900s, called for the use of locally-made products. The trend lasted for some years before Economic Liberalisation began in the wake of the 1991 economic crisis, which led to a steady rise in FDI with the entry of global brands into the country. This phenomenon led to stiff competition between the home-grown players and foreign players as the latter offered better quality products at competitive prices. Unable to compete, many small Indian players got acquired by big multinational companies. Except for few diversified conglomerates such Tatas, Godrej, Reliance, and Raymonds, to name a few, many smaller brands fell by the wayside.

Read more at: https://yourstory.com/2020/05/significance-vocal-local-startup-ecoystem-vc-perspective

[amishmanish]

Lack of entrepreneurial mindset
"Entrepreneurship" was a subject in one of the compulsory humanities courses they make you take during Engineering. The basic idea was that an entrepreneur has risk taking capacity. As Indians, we are inherently risk averse. This is because of the unstable society and shitty law & order. Musclemen, fourth grade policemen and illiterate politicians are our masters. In such a situation, every 90s kid knows that if you have a stable Govt job, you will have some kind of an identity that will help you or your family. So everyone just toils over books to get out of the shithole and reach a position of authority, power and wealth.

Entrepreneurial mindset akin to that found in West cannot grow without a stable society and law and order. Everyone loves American businesses but most were started by Americans who lived the best peace years through history and coming from well-read, prosperous families themselves. Its ironic that while this Govt preaches Indians about "startup India", they have created the worse societal conditions ever where people are just not feeling secure enough. In the name of anti-corruption and digitalization, we are slowly going back to the days of license-raj and tax terrorism.

Pawan's remarks here on that other side-topic we started on your raffle thread have the same answer:

Out of all the "Indian developers in alt-coins" as you say, how many do you think would be contributing towards open source ?

Most of these "Indian devs" are IT guys in their first jobs trying to do a side project or a hustle. They may not be contributing to open source but in striving to bring some apps and products onto these alternate blockchains, they are only trying to establish some sort of income stream. While there is little chance that they will come up with something groundbreaking, you cannot simply write them off. There are a lot of passionate people out there too. They just don't have enough money to let their passion take precedence over everything else.

[amishmanish]

The BTC price crossed 12000 USD and still rising. We are just in the middle of the week so this isn't the weekend spike. Lot of bullish news had poured in for quite sometime and the way BTC price just shrugged the Bitmex incident seems to have finally given succour to the bulls. Get ready for the usual pangs of the price difference between USD and INR that almost all the Indian exchanges pile up.

Anybody knows how do they justify them? Is that an India tax?

[akram143]

Get ready for the usual pangs of the price difference between USD and INR that almost all the Indian exchanges pile up.

Anybody knows how do they justify them? Is that an India tax?

The price increase comes from the trading fee as far as I know which increases atleast 1% spike from the market price and also competition between the traders, who gives better price will be on the top so people are rushing and reducing their profit margin to stay in the race.

[teosanru]

Hahah there is one thing I can assure you. You are going to be declared as Anti National after this very post.   I think the problem we are encountering today is polarization of citizens. Commenting on it from polticial point of view. Apart from religious polarization which obviously has been a major concern these days. Problem is that a new kind of war is emerging between so called right wing and left wing clans. Now these ideological rivalries make sense and are practiced in most of the countries like even the US but in India it is changing into extremism. Right wing people obviously we all know the clan of supporters of BJP and as per them anyone who does not follows that ideology is a Left wing or Chinese/Pak agent or Anti nationalist. Now the problem here what most of the people don't realise is that there is no end to this war. Because at the end you would merely find hatred.

Economically, I think I would not completely blame the govt for GDP fall obviously Covid was a factor but yes the recovery mechanism was absolutely poor and what was highlighted in media is nowhere near reality. Moreover the economic regimes of the government are pretty confusing. Being Right wing government their focus should be on free markets. But where on one end they are inviting big giants around the world to enter every sector of India even agriculture now and on the other hand they are banning Chinese Companies and following socialist regimes. But obviously this would lead to more income inequality becoming even more wider.

[pakhitheboss]

I do agree things after 2014 have gone from bad to worst. I only can see fake propoganda and fake promises and not a single development.

But, the question is "Do we have good opposition leaders to counter two powerful leaders from the ruling party?"

I do not think so the opposition itself is divided, every leader their wants to be the head of this country. They themselves are fighting with each other.

If the situation does not changes soon then you will see the existing ruling party once again in power.

[webtricks]

The BTC price crossed 12000 USD and still rising. We are just in the middle of the week so this isn't the weekend spike. Lot of bullish news had poured in for quite sometime and the way BTC price just shrugged the Bitmex incident seems to have finally given succour to the bulls. Get ready for the usual pangs of the price difference between USD and INR that almost all the Indian exchanges pile up.

Anybody knows how do they justify them? Is that an India tax?

That price difference is to account for the 'excessive demand' in Indian market. Even before USD/INR trading pairs were available on Indian Exchanges (before 2018), bitcoin was still selling at the premium of 5-20%. I remember selling bitcoin @ Rs. 14,50,000 on Zebpay when international price was $19,100 (Rs. 13,60,000 at that time).

So the premium is always there in Indian Market whenever bullish trend grows. But after the introduction of stablecoins like USDT, Indian traders started preferring to trade at par with the international markets. So, the traders started taking USDT/INR -> BTC/USDT route rather than directly trading BTC for INR.

Now, BTC/USDT pair has to be at par with international market. So the premium adjustment is only possible in USDT/INR or any of those pairs which involve INR as the base currency. That's why you see USD price rising steep in Indian Market whenever bitcoin falls or grow dramatically.

[amishmanish]

Now, BTC/USDT pair has to be at par with international market. So the premium adjustment is only possible in USDT/INR or any of those pairs which involve INR as the base currency. That's why you see USD price rising steep in Indian Market whenever bitcoin falls or grow dramatically.

Thanks for the explanation webtricks. I did see the USDT/INR pair trading at >90 INR/ USD during the March dump this year. I was wondering whats up with it. Now I know. These events present interesting arbitrage opportunities to those with the wherewithal to implement them. This also opens up a Pandora's box of regulations. Forex trading in pairs that do not involve INR is not allowed. So is BTC/USDT allowed? Similarly, as resident citizens, there are multiple hoops one needs to jump to hold any form of foreign currency like USD.

If you go to a bank and tell them to deposit USD, they will ask for a source of income, passport, visa etc. So is it legal for a resident citizen to hold USDT? Is USDT just a commodity (which tracks USD) or it is to be treated as the dollar? What are implications for people using stablecoins for remittances rather than going the banking route and paying the fees?

Just some interesting questions about the Indian scene in crypto. @teosanru should weigh in.

[webtricks]

Now, BTC/USDT pair has to be at par with international market. So the premium adjustment is only possible in USDT/INR or any of those pairs which involve INR as the base currency. That's why you see USD price rising steep in Indian Market whenever bitcoin falls or grow dramatically.

Thanks for the explanation webtricks. I did see the USDT/INR pair trading at >90 INR/ USD during the March dump this year. I was wondering whats up with it. Now I know. These events present interesting arbitrage opportunities to those with the wherewithal to implement them. This also opens up a Pandora's box of regulations.

Yeah! Every time there's a big dump in the market, USDT trades at the premium of Rs. 7-10 comparing to USD price. I have tried many times to take advantage of this arbitrage opportunity however, succeeded only once. I was able to buy BTC from a foreign resident @ Preev + 5% (although I didn't make direct payment to him). Then I sold BTC on Indian local exchange @ Preev + 18%, yielding 13% in arbitrage.

Forex trading in pairs that do not involve INR is not allowed. So is BTC/USDT allowed? Similarly, as resident citizens, there are multiple hoops one needs to jump to hold any form of foreign currency like USD.

If you go to a bank and tell them to deposit USD, they will ask for a source of income, passport, visa etc. So is it legal for a resident citizen to hold USDT? Is USDT just a commodity (which tracks USD) or it is to be treated as the dollar? What are implications for people using stablecoins for remittances rather than going the banking route and paying the fees?

I have read FEMA Act and the act applies trading and holding restrictions on two things - 'Foreign Currency' and 'Foreign Exchange'. Now going by the definition specified in the Act, Foreign Currency refers to any currency other than Indian currency. Whereas, Foreign Exchange means foreign currency and deposits, credits, balances, drafts, BoE, LoC and other kinds of payables in any foreign currency. So one thing is sure, FEMA Act doesn't categorize cryptocurrencies either as foreign currency or foreign exchange. Also RBI haven't classified cryptocurrencies under any type of 'security', 'currency' or 'asset' definition. So my conclusion is that FEMA Act doesn't apply to cryptocurrencies.

In the absence of any clear guidance, I don't think you have to worry holding USDT or any other stablecoin because even if its value is pegged to USD, by core definition it is still a cryptocurrency and it is not possible to directly link the value of such stablecoin with the underlying reserves. Hence, it is still a value only available on blockchain and you are believing a third-party that it is keeping enough reserves in real USD of equivalent amount.

[teosanru]

Now, BTC/USDT pair has to be at par with international market. So the premium adjustment is only possible in USDT/INR or any of those pairs which involve INR as the base currency. That's why you see USD price rising steep in Indian Market whenever bitcoin falls or grow dramatically.

Thanks for the explanation webtricks. I did see the USDT/INR pair trading at >90 INR/ USD during the March dump this year. I was wondering whats up with it. Now I know. These events present interesting arbitrage opportunities to those with the wherewithal to implement them. This also opens up a Pandora's box of regulations.

Yeah! Every time there's a big dump in the market, USDT trades at the premium of Rs. 7-10 comparing to USD price. I have tried many times to take advantage of this arbitrage opportunity however, succeeded only once. I was able to buy BTC from a foreign resident @ Preev + 5% (although I didn't make direct payment to him). Then I sold BTC on Indian local exchange @ Preev + 18%, yielding 13% in arbitrage.

Forex trading in pairs that do not involve INR is not allowed. So is BTC/USDT allowed? Similarly, as resident citizens, there are multiple hoops one needs to jump to hold any form of foreign currency like USD.

If you go to a bank and tell them to deposit USD, they will ask for a source of income, passport, visa etc. So is it legal for a resident citizen to hold USDT? Is USDT just a commodity (which tracks USD) or it is to be treated as the dollar? What are implications for people using stablecoins for remittances rather than going the banking route and paying the fees?

I have read FEMA Act and the act applies trading and holding restrictions on two things - 'Foreign Currency' and 'Foreign Exchange'. Now going by the definition specified in the Act, Foreign Currency refers to any currency other than Indian currency. Whereas, Foreign Exchange means foreign currency and deposits, credits, balances, drafts, BoE, LoC and other kinds of payables in any foreign currency. So one thing is sure, FEMA Act doesn't categorize cryptocurrencies either as foreign currency or foreign exchange. Also RBI haven't classified cryptocurrencies under any type of 'security', 'currency' or 'asset' definition. So my conclusion is that FEMA Act doesn't apply to cryptocurrencies.

In the absence of any clear guidance, I don't think you have to worry holding USDT or any other stablecoin because even if its value is pegged to USD, by core definition it is still a cryptocurrency and it is not possible to directly link the value of such stablecoin with the underlying reserves. Hence, it is still a value only available on blockchain and you are believing a third-party that it is keeping enough reserves in real USD of equivalent amount.

Yup you are absolutely right FEMA Cryptocurrencies don't fall under the ambit of Foreign currency but it can be classified as a foreign asset as FEMA is applicable on foreign assets held by Indians too. FEMA can apply on any type of exchange barter. I don't think RBI needs to classify specified assets too. Will surely give it a deep look. But essentially with cryptocurrencies assets another problem is trace out the country of your tokens. Will it be bitfinex's location which stores USD or the exchange on which you hold? Cryptocurrencies will have to fight a big legal fight in this country I am pretty sure.

[amishmanish]

In the absence of any clear guidance, I don't think you have to worry holding USDT or any other stablecoin because even if its value is pegged to USD, by core definition it is still a cryptocurrency and it is not possible to directly link the value of such stablecoin with the underlying reserves. Hence, it is still a value only available on blockchain and you are believing a third-party that it is keeping enough reserves in real USD of equivalent amount.

Yup you are absolutely right FEMA Cryptocurrencies don't fall under the ambit of Foreign currency but it can be classified as a foreign asset as FEMA is applicable on foreign assets held by Indians too. FEMA can apply on any type of exchange barter. I don't think RBI needs to classify specified assets too. Will surely give it a deep look. But essentially with cryptocurrencies assets another problem is trace out the country of your tokens. Will it be bitfinex's location which stores USD or the exchange on which you hold? Cryptocurrencies will have to fight a big legal fight in this country I am pretty sure.

So the classification is Foreign Currency, Foreign Exchange and Foreign Asset. For the time being, I am not worried about holding USDT. Its just another ERC-20 token on Ethereum blockchain. Still, a lot of people are exchanging them on KYC'd exchanges like WazirX. (Consider this a "A friend of mine" story, lol) Centralized exchanges like coinbase have already shared trading histories of clients with tax authorities. Indian exchanges can easily do the same. The thing is that these are problems for a time and government that is interested in anything else than running a shitshow of politics and chauvinism. Who cares about having a dialogue with the public when you can do just whatever you want as a ruler?

Then again, People like us don't necessarily matter. A few lac INR moved by us is just petty change for the regulator to care about. As and when, the RBI or SEBI wake up to the "asset" and "exchange" part of it, we will start seeing interventions.

[webtricks]

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So the classification is Foreign Currency, Foreign Exchange and Foreign Asset. For the time being, I am not worried about holding USDT. Its just another ERC-20 token on Ethereum blockchain. Still, a lot of people are exchanging them on KYC'd exchanges like WazirX. (Consider this a "A friend of mine" story, lol) Centralized exchanges like coinbase have already shared trading histories of clients with tax authorities. Indian exchanges can easily do the same. The thing is that these are problems for a time and government that is interested in anything else than running a shitshow of politics and chauvinism. Who cares about having a dialogue with the public when you can do just whatever you want as a ruler?

Yeah, they can and are obliged to share your trading history or any other information with tax authorities if needed or asked for. That's why the first thing they ask in KYC procedure is your PAN Card which is issued by Income Tax Department itself.

But that doesn't mean you are in any trouble if you are holding or trading USDT or other stablecoins on such exchanges. INR buy/sell on WazirX is only open for Indian residents. So you can only buy/sell stablecoins to other Indians (no FEMA). Moreover, it's clear that you only have to pay tax if you made profits on sales, holding coins don't attract taxes. So there is nothing to fear if you are paying taxes periodically on correct amount of profits and incomes.

The only thing you need to worry is to not hold coins on such exchanges if you don't intend to sell those instantly and earned them from the sources you can't prove. In such cases, keep such coins on the address which can't be linked to your identity and transfer them to exchange only when you intend to sale those for INR. Withdraw the amount to the bank and pay tax in the following year. Simple, right?

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

BTCump. Election day is going to come to an end and we will either be continuing with the old unstable guy or will be getting a new one. For the past couple of years, Western part of the globe has been silently controlling us either in the form of providing job in their homeland or by destroying Indian startups in the name of creation of a Digital India. So let us start the discussion here : Whom do you think will be winning the election tonight? Will Biden be more welcoming to the immigrants? Modi has made our country to depend completely upon the overseas companies which has a major share in Mechanical Sectors or more importantly IT sectors! With the temporary ruling out of the H1B Visa, our fellow citizens had faced major hardships in having a good stay in the US but I don't think this will continue for long enough.

But if the opposite tends to happen i.e Trump winning the election tonight in the US, I am not sure how these will be proceeding for another 4 years. Ruling out of H1B has far more adverse effect on our country. It would start with Students returning to our country after they finish off their graduation and thereby becoming unemployed. I could relate this to a worst case scenario which I have experienced last year : A known person of mine has finished his Mech graduation in UK but sadly they never got a job there and hence returned back here. Currently working for a salary of 40k INR per month.

Along with that a large volume of our citizens would be moving over to any EU based countries, Canada, Oceania and would be filling the empty spots there. This will further increase the difficulty of securing a permanent residency in the foreign lands and if this continues to happen we would be facing the worst unemployment rate of the forthcoming decade.

[pakhitheboss]

BTCump. Election day is going to come to an end and we will either be continuing with the old unstable guy or will be getting a new one. For the past couple of years, Western part of the globe has been silently controlling us either in the form of providing job in their homeland or by destroying Indian startups in the name of creation of a Digital India. So let us start the discussion here : Whom do you think will be winning the election tonight? Will Biden be more welcoming to the immigrants? Modi has made our country to depend completely upon the overseas companies which has a major share in Mechanical Sectors or more importantly IT sectors! With the temporary ruling out of the H1B Visa, our fellow citizens had faced major hardships in having a good stay in the US but I don't think this will continue for long enough.

But if the opposite tends to happen i.e Trump winning the election tonight in the US, I am not sure how these will be proceeding for another 4 years. Ruling out of H1B has far more adverse effect on our country. It would start with Students returning to our country after they finish off their graduation and thereby becoming unemployed. I could relate this to a worst case scenario which I have experienced last year : A known person of mine has finished his Mech graduation in UK but sadly they never got a job there and hence returned back here. Currently working for a salary of 40k INR per month.

Along with that a large volume of our citizens would be moving over to any EU based countries, Canada, Oceania and would be filling the empty spots there. This will further increase the difficulty of securing a permanent residency in the foreign lands and if this continues to happen we would be facing the worst unemployment rate of the forthcoming decade.

I am pretty much sure Trump will not get the second term. St the moment Biden is ahead of Trump and I feel it will remain as it is.

If Biden comes into power many changes will happen in America and some of those will benifit Indians. I am not certain about the economy as indian economy is completely in shamble and it will take years for us to get back to Pre covid situation.

[pawanjain]

The chances for Biden to win are greater as Biden is ahead in the number of votes received.
In my personal opinion I would like if Biden wins the presidential elections because there were somethings that I didn't like about Trump in his course of years as the President of America.
As for the India-US ties they will only get stronger even if either of them wins the elections.
Found an article on the affects of India when Biden wins the elections.

Biden as president will be good for India, perhaps not that good for Modi

As for bitcoin, I don't think the US elections would create a major impact on bitcoin's price.

[JSRAW]

^^ Its should be about policies, not Anti Modi/Trump/Biden. Personal relations doesn't matter much in politics.

Indo pacific and China-crisis - No matter who wins, they just want to push for more weapon deals and counter China including Indo-Rus trade  so brace for more military cooperation,they already pitched the f-18 idea (Minus Technology Transfer).

On 370 Kashmir/ Internal Matters - Biden might not want to provoke India but don't forget ilhan omar and Pramila Jayapal going to be very vocal on Kashmir issue, in short pro Pakistani narrative and its all about narrative, if you lose the narrative then no-one going to respect or care about you. Hint : Congress hearing, Nanga karke marenge wahan ish baar but i am more concerned about Kamala harris because she has no idea what POK or Indian Kashmir problem is and its tricky situation for India considering her alignment with the Omar and Jayapal (Radical Islamist). On the other hand Trump is not going to interfere on our internal matter at all.

@pawanjain : I have watched this small seminar, she was clueless when Pakistani representative raised the Kashmir question, she end up talking about POK human rights drama.

and Kamala Harris’ words on the abrogation of Article 370 should alarm New Delhi: “We have to remind the Kashmiris that they are not alone in the world. We are keeping a track on the situation. There is a need to intervene if the situation demands.”

On H1B Visa : Biden is best bet as Trump policies are really bad as far as India is concerned. India could have used this crisis as opportunity because Brain_Drain is serious concern but bureaucracy is pathetic in India, No matter who sitting at the Centre.

On Trade-Deficit fiasco : Again Biden is best bet.

Uniform Civil Code is on cards so fingers crossed.

I am more interested to see if Biden change US policies on Iran_Nuclear_Deal. Trump fucked up India's interest there by ditching the Iran deal or should i say its failure of our bureaucracy. India need Iran in context of Afghanistan and middle east unless we gets hold of POK which seems unlikely.

 

[amishmanish]

BTCump. Election day is going to come to an end and we will either be continuing with the old unstable guy or will be getting a new one.

I have nearly zero direct stake in the US elections but anybody can see that the orange man single-handedly brought the level of debate and discourse to historic lows in America. This has had a ripple effect throughout the world strengthening the hand of right-wingers everywhere. This whole thing started as a pushback from the working classes worldwide against the elites who keep getting richer. Unfortunately, extremists, bigots, conspiracy theorists and all form of cuckoo people came crawling out of their basements to declare themselves to the world. My hope is that with Biden winning, this lunacy will come to a balance. Just like the left-wing lunatics needed balance, this right-wing rhetoric has gotten out of hand.

For the past couple of years, Western part of the globe has been silently controlling us either in the form of providing job in their homeland or by destroying Indian startups in the name of creation of a Digital India. So let us start the discussion here : Whom do you think will be winning the election tonight? Will Biden be more welcoming to the immigrants? Modi has made our country to depend completely upon the overseas companies which has a major share in Mechanical Sectors or more importantly IT sectors! With the temporary ruling out of the H1B Visa, our fellow citizens had faced major hardships in having a good stay in the US but I don't think this will continue for long enough.

Its the lack of foresight and competence of Indian leadership that they can't see this game plan of keeping India limited to being a middle-class market and a middle-class service providers. Western corp. learnt their lessons after China made rapid advances through reverse-engineering, copying, iterating and at times IP espionage. Indians waited for the tech masters to share but as was seen in case of Russia (cryo engine), France (Rafale Know-how Jaguar upgrades), USA (GE Reactors) etc, no major corporation is going to provide you any assistance.

Indian companies are on their own and they still refuse to spend on R&D. There is still an abysmal gap between Industry and academics. And to drown all these real issues, we talk about Digital India.

[teosanru]

^^ Its should be about policies, not Anti Modi/Trump/Biden. Personal relations doesn't matter much in politics.

Indo pacific and China-crisis - No matter who wins, they just want to push for more weapon deals and counter China including Indo-Rus trade  so brace for more military cooperation,they already pitched the f-18 idea (Minus Technology Transfer).

On 370 Kashmir/ Internal Matters - Biden might not want to provoke India but don't forget ilhan omar and Pramila Jayapal going to be very vocal on Kashmir issue, in short pro Pakistani narrative and its all about narrative, if you lose the narrative then no-one going to respect or care about you. Hint : Congress hearing, Nanga karke marenge wahan ish baar but i am more concerned about Kamala harris because she has no idea what POK or Indian Kashmir problem is and its tricky situation for India considering her alignment with the Omar and Jayapal (Radical Islamist). On the other hand Trump is not going to interfere on our internal matter at all.

@pawanjain : I have watched this small seminar, she was clueless when Pakistani representative raised the Kashmir question, she end up talking about POK human rights drama.

and Kamala Harris’ words on the abrogation of Article 370 should alarm New Delhi: “We have to remind the Kashmiris that they are not alone in the world. We are keeping a track on the situation. There is a need to intervene if the situation demands.”

On H1B Visa : Biden is best bet as Trump policies are really bad as far as India is concerned. India could have used this crisis as opportunity because Brain_Drain is serious concern but bureaucracy is pathetic in India, No matter who sitting at the Centre.

On Trade-Deficit fiasco : Again Biden is best bet.

Uniform Civil Code is on cards so fingers crossed.

I am more interested to see if Biden change US policies on Iran_Nuclear_Deal. Trump fucked up India's interest there by ditching the Iran deal or should i say its failure of our bureaucracy. India need Iran in context of Afghanistan and middle east unless we gets hold of POK which seems unlikely.

 

I think it's too early to frame an opinion about the President of the US. I have seen that most of the times US Presidents don't stick to their ideologies that hard as much as they promised in their campaign speeches. Yes one thing I can agree to is that the Narrative of the whole World would once again change if Bidden wins(which seems most likely as per the current scenario). While the world started to tilt a bit towards far-right due to almost all major countries having right-wing ideology Presidents/ Prime Ministers would now shift towards the center as the US exerts a lot of pressure on world Politics. One thing I would like to see about Bidden is how he handles China. Even though he has promised that he would restore it's relation-back with China but I think they should come to some compromise from the Chinese end too. China has gone way too far in non-liberalism while expecting everyone to be liberal towards it.

About relations with India I don't think it matters much except for the fact that there would be slightly less right-wing activism. It's because US can in no way support Pakistan's claim on Kashmir at the UN due to terrorism in Pakistan and neither can it substantiate India's claim on it due to global geopolitics. So things would remain the same they were in Kashmir for the last 70 years. I am talking primarily about POK.

Talking about the Uniform Civil Code I personally like the idea of it but if it's made merely as per the fit and measures of Hindus, tensions would obviously escalate in the country once again. I think this is the reason why RSS and BJP might be having a dispute over it.

About H1B visa, I think we have a bigger problem posed by the BJP's Haryana Government:

Bill providing 75% reservation in private jobs to people from the State of Haryana passed in Haryana Assembly. : ANI

Now forget about international immigration you even will have to look forward to what happens to domestic migration. I am not concerned about any other city but Gurgaon and Faridabad are obviously the major Economics Hubs of the country.

[JSRAW]

Russia (cryo engine)

It was blessing in disguise for ISRO. I don't blame Russians tho, as they were in pretty bad position back then due to over reliant on US's Aid

I think it's too early to frame an opinion about the President of the US. I have seen that most of the times US Presidents don't stick to their ideologies that hard as much as they promised in their campaign speeches.

Fair enough, but i think you are underestimating Democrats and the incident i mentioned it was not related to campaign speech but Congress hearings. They are different breed when it comes to Human rights, social outfits, overall i would say hypocrite. Although i am not worried much as its completely different from the foreign policy but i believe India is going to get a lot of bad press worldwide if Dem ruling USA and NDA sitting at the center, it was already bad during UPA tenure (rape capital etc).

One thing I would like to see about Bidden is how he handles China. Even though he has promised that he would restore it's relation-back with China but I think they should come to some compromise from the Chinese end too. China has gone way too far in non-liberalism while expecting everyone to be liberal towards it.

On China, in short term he's not going to be as tough as Trump but Biden is wise enough to understand that China is threat to their hegemony so he will try to work toward strengthening their ties with existing allies unlike Trump, who already pissed off Japanese over tariffs threats and who should pay more  for the US military bases in Japan And Korean already fed up with the trump's childish behavior when dealing with North korea crisis. Even Aussie administrators don't have any favorable opinion about Trump.

Talking about the Uniform Civil Code I personally like the idea of it but if it's made merely as per the fit and measures of Hindus, tensions would obviously escalate in the country once again. I think this is the reason why RSS and BJP might be having a dispute over it.

Doesn't matter if its UPA/NDA. State should treat its Citizens equal despite their Cast,Creed,Color or Religions. UCC insures that, without this we are not Secular State but Selective Secular and yeah if you are in favor of Selective Secularism then this bill is Anti Abrahamic religion.

https://www.thequint.com/explainers/uniform-civil-code-explained-what-it-is-and-why-it-matters
https://hillpost.in/2013/08/top-7-reasons-why-india-needs-a-uniform-civil-code/95038/

On Less_right_wing_activism comment in Indian context. I agree it would go down drastically but only in news reporting. I can assure you there would be zero change on ground level. Journalist would keep going into jail, shiv sena, bajrang dal type of organisation would create their usual drama every now n then, Cow lynch is not going to reduce (its happening since our independence, century old problem) and last Hindu-Muslim riots. But hey good news is that there would be no outrage, media coverage or award wapsi so its good thing.

Its never going to change unless India focus on Law and Order. How can we expect decline or control fringe groups/crime when our police force is Understaffed_Underpaid_Overworked. For 1.3 billion Indians we have only 1.9 Million Police force, can you imagine that? If doubling the number seems impossible task then at least match the UN guidelines (222ish Police officers for every 100,000 citizens). It would be a welcome start, after that we could focus on police reforms or fund management etc.

About H1B visa, I think we have a bigger problem posed by the BJP's Haryana Government:

Bill providing 75% reservation in private jobs to people from the State of Haryana passed in Haryana Assembly. : ANI

Now forget about international immigration you even will have to look forward to what happens to domestic migration. I am not concerned about any other city but Gurgaon and Faridabad are obviously the major Economics Hubs of the country.

Greator Noida/Noida and Yogi ki balle balle.  

[AjithBtc]

Have anyone heard of the freedom fighter Birsa Munda. This is the first time I'm hearing about him. One of the popular Indian Amit Shah had garlanded the wrong statue which is an tribal hunter's statue. Me as an anti-Indian not knowing about the freedom fighter is not a big thing, but this Indian should know better about the freedom fighters.

[amishmanish]

Russia (cryo engine)

It was blessing in disguise for ISRO. I don't blame Russians tho, as they were in pretty bad position back then due to over reliant on US's Aid

Blessing in disguise because ISRO has a unique position in terms of being able to do space research having found both a market as well as a purpose. The purpose part is important because that is what ultimately drives the employees to be inventors. This kind of an approach is completely lacking in every other manufacturing sector. We need serious investment in product development for defence and civil purposes. This over-reliance on imports through JVs by private companies is not a solution to the fundamental problem.

By the way, Thank God for Biden looks to have won. Trump is going in with his lawsuits and all. Hopefully there are no surprises anymore.

Have anyone heard of the freedom fighter Birsa Munda. This is the first time I'm hearing about him. One of the popular Indian Amit Shah had garlanded the wrong statue which is an tribal hunter's statue. Me as an anti-Indian not knowing about the freedom fighter is not a big thing, but this Indian should know better about the freedom fighters.

Dude, Everyone has heard of Birsa Munda. Read Bipin Chandra. The tribal rebellions like the Santhal and Munda rebellion were amongst the first armed rebellions against the might of the British. Indian Tribal communities are amazing. And if you ever find a person who identifies himself as a "tribal" from the Chhatisgarh region, NE region etc, it won't take long for you to relalize their big hearts and cool attitude.

[AjithBtc]

Happy Diwali to all friends living on different parts of the world. Hope the light be spread around taking away the dark. Let the festival of light end the people's suffering out of the pandemic.

[reliable]

Happy Diwali to all friends living on different parts of the world. Hope the light be spread around taking away the dark. Let the festival of light end the people's suffering out of the pandemic.

Wish you all a very Happy and Safe Diwali. Hope it bring the good luck, fortune and corona free world in coming time. This has been an exceptional year and all the festivals being modified due to various restrictions and taking precaution due to pandemic. Also, for Diwali had opened a separate thread. Link is below.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5288917.0

[amishmanish]

There was a discussion in Economy section about US household income which somehow led to the topic of difference between direct transfers to the poor and subsidies to the rich.

I think, Indians are uniquely capable to assess this. In mixed economies like ours, there were multi billion dollar programs of Govt subsidy. This meant that the poor were given access to cheap goods, rations etc through an elaborate system of supplies managed by a mix of Govt and private agencies. The businesses involved were given subsidies for delivering goods to the poor. What actually happened was that all those businesses and agencies ate away the funding. This continued for almost 70 years and now the present govt has changed this system. Transfers are made directly to bank accounts. Failures on other economic fronts notwithstanding, opening bank accounts for billions of poor and actually activating a host of direct transfers has been one of the biggest achievements of the present Govt.

The next best thing we need is for Govt expenditure to be managed and tracked transparently. Bitcoin is eminently suitable for this. While a lot of people say that bitcoin should be a global reserve currency to realize its true potential, i have always felt that Govt spending is one of the best use-cases for blockchain/ bitcoin. Of course they would NEVER do that. Imagine if PNB's loan grants were public knowledge. How would have the likes of Nirav Modi ran away with so much public money at the behest of a few officials. There can be countless applications of this from the payments made to petty contractors in public departments to multi-million rupee public tenders.

[Nihal6443]

Don't call media they are terrorists i am an Indian but i believe our media is shit.

[amishmanish]

@UKprod, This links from the message here. You are what i call the closet-Bhakt. People at this stage want to be proud of their identity, rightly so but don't like to discuss Hindu majoritarianism like all the other "good" people.

It is fashionable to "turn the cheek" and look the other way when Freedom of expression is curtailed in a country and a Govt fudges the number of deaths in a global pandemic. And when someone calls out the majoritarianism, they are subject to the typical rhetoric about "Can't I be proud of my Hindi identity?"

You had to make it a religious issue, didn't you? Don't you feel sometimes that you should reflect on your own thoughts once? I never brought up religion and I was quite respectful of your thoughts. Also, think along these lines, such Hinduphobic thoughts in your message are the ones that kind of instigate Hindus to support the ruling party. Maybe if you empathized and stopped targeting Hindus for just being Hindus and/or having a different view, they would be open to parties other than the ruling party. But everyone seems to be targeting Hindus and are equating Hindus with the ruling party, including you my dear friend. Let's be tolerant of all religions.

LOL @ Hinduphobic thoughts. This is about the government doing everything in its power to curtail democracy and a core group still supporting (along with a pliant media). The type of people who were arguing about state-center responsibility when Moduji was saying "Didi-O-Didi" while people were dying on roads for lack of oxygen.

These people will blame the state governments, indians and the population, but won't question Moduji's inept leadership. That is when it becomes about "religion". Nobody is out to shame Hindus. Hindus have shamed themselves enough in this whole episode.

[JSRAW]

@amishmanish

What's wrong with the hindu majoritism or any kind of majoritism per se? After all democracy is all about majority, right? Identity politics play big part in the India and its a big reality. Before its was Caste-Muslim-Regional block, as result we got fair amount of coalition gov and last one was corrupt af but in the last 2 general election Modi changed the dynamic by turning caste into religion. Opposition can counter this with better product, no one is stopping them but of course first they need to work on the ground. And i really don't know what makes you say that they are undermining democracy. Regional powers showing their spine and winning elections so it does look business as usual to me tbh. We have limited FOE is in India so no argument there and i don't see it changing ever, at least not in my lifetime.

We should criticize Modi on his failures but we should also remember that Center don't hold any power over States. Centre manage only couple of portfolio for the states (Defence-forgien affairs), nothing else. So if someone pointing out state-center responsibility argument when dealing with covid or any other issue then they are spot on. Playing field should be same for everyone IMO. The way i see it we as a country got complacent when covid cases went down and then second wave came, it was collective failure for all of us which includes Centre-States-Citizens.

I completely agree that overall casualty figures are under reported but i can't believe that half or millions of people died and all political rivals came together on this issue just to hide casualties reports and media also supporting them? I highly doubt it.

[amishmanish]

@amishmanish
What's wrong with the hindu majoritism or any kind of majoritism per se? After all democracy is all about majority, right?
--snip--\
And i really don't know what makes you say that they are undermining democracy.

India as a nation is built on the ethos of plurality and "Unity in Diversity". The unique position and strength of Indian democracy has always been the fact that religious minorities have never been subject to a compulsion of conforming to the majority's point of view. This has also been because the Hindus have been tolerant and big believers in constitution rather than religion based outfits to assert themselves.

I don't know if you have followed mainstream media, SM etc over the last 7 years but under this Govt, this dynamic has changed dramatically. More and more Hindus are told that they are in danger, especially from Muslims and Christians. This is an extremely dangerous path. It started with the silence on lynchings, cow-vigilantism and open demonization of Muslims in the media. What to say about the troll armies on Facebook, Whatsapp and their continual projection of Modi/BJP as the only savior against a tide of Beef-eating, Love-Jihading, dangerous Muslims.

These are the reasons that I think this Govt has undermined democracy in ways we never thought possible. Some people disagree and think that people like us are being alarmist to be so anti-BJP. Frankly speaking, I think if this Govt continues down this path, we will be staring at an obnoxious country of majoritrians that will be a pale shadow of the India that was respected for its democratic credentials through the past decades despite its limited economic or military might. Then again, I also have hope that democracy as a concept is resilient and sheer geo-political compulsions will save India from the Modi-Shah juggernaut of absolutism.

We should criticize Modi on his failures but we should also remember that Center don't hold any power over States. Centre manage only couple of portfolio for the states (Defence-forgien affairs), nothing else. So if someone pointing out state-center responsibility argument when dealing with covid or any other issue then they are spot on.
--snip--

No they are not. It was the responsilbility of central institutions to track the virulence, spread and mutation of the virus through genomic studies and a scientific approach towards managing the epidemic. Instead, Modi and his minions were busy in celebrating his personal brand and vaccine diplomacy while declaring victory over Covid.
Mumbai and Maharashtra had been struggling throughout the past year. Instead of exploring the possibility of a more virulent strain, BJP was busy in trying to single out the Thackeray Govt for "mismanaging" Covid. Taling about State-central power distribution is simply an argument to make an excuse for refusing to see that Modi was being a megalomaniac while Shah was probably busy plotting a Madhya Pradesh for Maharashtra.

[JSRAW]

India as a nation is built on the ethos of plurality and "Unity in Diversity". The unique position and strength of Indian democracy has always been the fact that religious minorities have never been subject to a compulsion of conforming to the majority's point of view. This has also been because the Hindus have been tolerant and big believers in constitution rather than religion based outfits to assert themselves.

Practicing secularism, maintaining diversity, following constitution, law and order are not only majority's responsibility but every Indian's responsbility. Although majority will continue to do so because its in their DNA despite facing ethnic cleansing and becoming refugee in their own country (Kashmir +North east -Reang or Bru Tribe etc). IMO Parsis, Jains, Sikhs, Buddhist, Christians are the real minorities but according to media and intellectual apologist. Sunnis Muslim (majority) are the real minority and minority in minority Shias (Ismailis, dawoodi bohra, jafferies -tweler-) are irrelevant in Indian polity because they always supported BJP silently and came out openly in 2014 and 2019, along with some Sunnis too, BJP muslim voteshare doubled in last 2 General election. There must be some reason, right? Although its still low but they started making inroads into Muslim community as well.  

I don't know if you have followed mainstream media, SM etc over the last 7 years but under this Govt, this dynamic has changed dramatically. More and more Hindus are told that they are in danger, especially from Muslims and Christians. This is an extremely dangerous path. It started with the silence on lynchings, cow-vigilantism and open demonization of Muslims in the media. What to say about the troll armies on Facebook, Whatsapp and their continual projection of Modi/BJP as the only savior against a tide of Beef-eating, Love-Jihading, dangerous Muslims.

I don't subscribe to Ravish-Rajdeep-Arnab kind of journalism tbh but i do volunteer work here n there and spent considerable amount of time in UP, J&K (Valley), Ladakh(kargil) under various initiatives. Only a idiot person can deny that there is no lynching culture over cow-beef etc in India but if you're saying this is only happening in Modi's India then i humbly disagree. I have said this couple of times in my previous posts, in my understanding its social disease- Law and order problem. You can deny this fact but IMHO its century old problem and not going to resolve anytime soon, no matter who sits at the centre (BJP or Congress). Unless police reforms comes into play.

Love Jihad is not propaganda tho, my half family is muslim so i have witnessed this countless time. Heck even my better half casually asked me to convert. It started as a joke at first then after some time it got serious, followed by emotional blackmail and irony is our families are friends with each others since ages. She's Yoga instructor and from educated family but kya kare bc conversion bahut jaruri hai after all gaandu ristedaaro ka syapa har jagah hai. You can only imagine what could happen to non-muslim girl.

These are the reasons that I think this Govt has undermined democracy in ways we never thought possible. Some people disagree and think that people like us are being alarmist to be so anti-BJP. Frankly speaking, I think if this Govt continues down this path, we will be staring at an obnoxious country of majoritrians that will be a pale shadow of the India that was respected for its democratic credentials through the past decades despite its limited economic or military might. Then again, I also have hope that democracy as a concept is resilient and sheer geo-political compulsions will save India from the Modi-Shah juggernaut of absolutism.

Unfortunately common folks die on both side but apologists and certain section of media only highlight one side of stories according to their allegiance be it right wing or left. Nothing is going to change on the ground but fearmongering will disappear if BJP lose the election, although its looks tough because there is no option for the voters.

Will start panicking about democracy if BJP gets into political killing like TMC, undermining SC's judgement, facilitate ethnic cleansing like INC.

Just to cheer you up. https://twitter.com/d_jaishankar/status/1408229286213996544

~snip~

Every political party was patting on their own back when cases went down drastically, ish hamam mein sab nange hai.