US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated

[eddie13]

I was gonna ask..

Trump seems to have a better chance than predicted, again

Meanwhile FL seems to be done. Trump is leading by nearly 200k votes and the remaining uncounted votes are mainly in pro-Trump counties.

Still think it's a landslide?
Neh..

The American voting circus of entertainment is working on me.. +beers

This suspense is much fun..

Cheers!

[1715110879]

1715110879

[suchmoon]

Still think it's a landslide?

Did I ever think it's a landslide? Not sure. I'm getting senile but I think I'd remember something like that.

[eddie13]

Still think it's a landslide?

Did I ever think it's a landslide? Not sure. I'm getting senile but I think I'd remember something like that.

Maybe not you specifically.. But such confidence in a Biden win..

Are all the latest "polls" within ""margin of error""??

[TwitchySeal]

Still think it's a landslide?

Did I ever think it's a landslide? Not sure. I'm getting senile but I think I'd remember something like that.

Maybe not you specifically.. But such confidence in a Biden win..

Are all the latest "polls" within ""margin of error""??

"Math"

"Science"

[bryant.coleman]

Still think it's a landslide?

Did I ever think it's a landslide? Not sure. I'm getting senile but I think I'd remember something like that.

Maybe not you specifically.. But such confidence in a Biden win..

Are all the latest "polls" within ""margin of error""??

@suchmoon & @eddie13: enjoy the suspense rather than fighting. This election is much tighter than anyone thought it was. Obviously one of you will lose 0.1 BTC sometime this month (in case PA results come out within the next few weeks), but for now let's just sit back and enjoy the show.

Ohio and NC getting really interesting. In Ohio, Biden was ahead by 12.3% when 51% of the vote was counted. Now they have counted 56% and Biden is up by 8.2%. Biden is still leading in NC, but now they have started to count the in-person votes.

My guess: it will come down to Pennsylvania (unless Biden wins AZ). You guys need to wait 3-4 weeks to get results from PA.

[suchmoon]

@suchmoon & @eddie13: enjoy the suspense rather than fighting.

Oh I'm enjoying it - perhaps a bit too much, looking at the growing pile of empty cans... eddie13 mentioned beer too so I think we're 100% on the same page.

Speaking of suspense, NYT called New York for Biden with 0 votes counted, while Florida still hasn't been called... quite ridiculous.

[KonstantinosM]

I'm calling Florida for Trump

10% of votes remaining, he has a 3% lead.

(I'm assuming the early votes and mail in ballots were counted first)

[TwitchySeal]

Pretty Bummed FL is going to Trump.

NYTimes is saying that if Trump takes NC and GA, the likelihood of knowing the outcome of the election within 24 hours drops to almost 0% and most likely it won't be till Friday at the earliest.  Ugh.

First numbers from MI and AZ coming up.

[suchmoon]

Ohio and NC getting really interesting. In Ohio, Biden was ahead by 12.3% when 51% of the vote was counted. Now they have counted 56% and Biden is up by 8.2%. Biden is still leading in NC, but now they have started to count the in-person votes.

Interesting tidbit about Ohio, where Biden is still leading:

According to turnout estimates, more of the uncounted votes, about 62 percent, are in counties won by Clinton in 2016.

So it seems like he can actually pull it off.

Whereas in NC, where Biden is leading by about 250k votes:

We just received more votes from Chatham County. According to turnout estimates, around 680,000 votes remain in counties won by Trump in 2016. Clinton 2016 counties have around 490,000 votes left to report.

Which doesn't really tell us if he can hold on to that lead because it's unclear how many of those 680k and 490k would go to each candidate.

[sirazimuth]

....
Speaking of suspense, NYT called New York for Biden with 0 votes counted, while Florida still hasn't been called... quite ridiculous.

Well in California, I believe .00000001% votes have been officially counted and Biden has the lead so I'm projecting California's 55 evotes go to Biden.

Just call me Nostradamus....

[bryant.coleman]

@suchmoon, I don't agree with you on Ohio.

Ohio first counts the postal ballots. I think this phase is over for most of the counties. In the second phase, in person ballots are being counted and that is why we are witnessing Trump gaining a lot of votes. In the third phase, the postal ballots which arrived during the last 3-4 days will be counted. Depending on their number, the third phase ballots will decide the outcome of the elections in Ohio. The same is the case with North Carolina as well. Most of the votes may be in counties won by Hillary in 2016. But these are in-person votes, and not postal votes.

Edit: With 70% of the votes in, Trump leading in OH by 0.6%. 15% remains in NC, and Biden leads by 26,000 (0.5%).

[suchmoon]

@suchmoon, I don't agree with you on Ohio.

Yeah, you're probably right, there is still a lot of variance.

Now over on the Senate side of things, Democracts flipped the Colorado seat, which wasn't a huge surprise. NC seat is somewhat correlated to presidential results I guess.

[eddie13]

@suchmoon & @eddie13: enjoy the suspense rather than fighting.

Oh I'm enjoying it - perhaps a bit too much, looking at the growing pile of empty cans... eddie13 mentioned beer too so I think we're 100% on the same page.

Cheers bro!
Especially with something at stake, this is better than a superbowl X4 easy..
Seems way closer than the polls had so far..
(Can we  now agree that polls are bullshit?)

Super proud of Michigan so far..

[bryant.coleman]

The battle now moves to Arizona, and it looks to me that Biden is in a very good position to get 11 electoral votes from this state.

More than 70% of the votes have been counted, and Biden is having a very large lead (9.5%). Similar to the case with OH, in the first phase they are counting the early in-person votes and postal votes. Election day in-person votes are being counted now, but Trump needs to win more than two-third of the remaining votes to have any chance here.

If Biden wins Arizona, he will be in a very good position to get at least 269 electoral votes.

[suchmoon]

~

Great, you saved me some typing, just wanted to post that Biden seems to have flipped Maricopa county big time (from -3 in 2016 to +10-ish now) and that's like half of Arizona.

[eddie13]

Watching CNN, they don't seem as confident in a blue win as 2016, but they seem like they are just making 1,000 excuses as to why states/counties are going red in 2020..

Thought they were supposed to be 100% sure of a Biden win since the polls say so?
Backpedaling.. Trump is gonna win..
Pollsters BTFO 4ever, even if Trump still looses..

[suchmoon]

Looking at exit polls Biden should win Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is not so certain.

This is probably skewed by mail-ins. Which should favor Biden even more.

[eddie13]

Neh.
I can tell by the demeanor of CNN employees that Trump is gonna take this..
Trying to call all "duh" states for biden to make it look competitive..

Trump has this..

Mail ins are usually counted first.. Late voting favors the Trumpster..

[squatz1]

Looking at exit polls Biden should win Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is not so certain.

This is probably skewed by mail-ins. Which should favor Biden even more.

Yup, most likely.

Trump has pulled through and will probably win Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida.

Pennsylvania will probably end up going to Trump.

Trump will probably win this race IMO. Betting markets have completely flipped on their head here. But I guess there's still a lot of time.

[eddie13]

Rust belt for Trump!!!!
Go go go go go go!!!

Michigan!!! You can Doooooo Eeettttt!