Bitcoin vs the US Stock Market: "The Breakup"

[mk4]

Thread I made 3 weeks ago: Topic: [UPDATED] Bitcoin vs Gold vs The US Stock Market(US500)

After bitcoin pretty much just following the US stock market(S&P500) for months, both asset classes finally went their own way just hours ago; with bitcoin going up like 4-5% whereas the US stock market went down by approximately 1.4% at market open.

Once again, completely up to you how you're going to use this information. Juuust really interesting.

■ Bitcoin
■ SPY(US stock market)

https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITSTAMP%3ABTCUSD

[1714632716]

1714632716

[1714632716]

1714632716

[1714632716]

1714632716

[Poker Player]

I follow the markets often, and I thought about that yesterday. The problem is that it is a very short term oscillation. It could stay the same. But bitcoin didn't always follow the market and it doesn't have to continue to do so in the future. In fact, I think it will be detached from the stock market at some point definitely in the future.

The thing is that the market has been assimilating bitcoin to a financial asset for some time now. Volatile, and high risk, but just another financial asset. It is not conceived as an asset with unique properties, which is what would make it detach from indexes like the S&P 500.

[mk4]

I follow the markets often, and I thought about that yesterday. The problem is that it is a very short term oscillation. It could stay the same.

Of course it could, and I actually expect both assets to continue to be mostly correlated.

But bitcoin didn't always follow the market and it doesn't have to continue to do so in the future. In fact, I think it will be detached from the stock market at some point definitely in the future.

It's pretty safe to assume that most(if not all) of us are already making that assumption since forever, hence why most of us here are invested in bitcoin and not the S&P500.

[Yogee]

This is what I'm getting from the chart
- bitcoin is hardly affected by the upcoming US Presidential election
- Stock Market swings as the election comes near.

I think the only indicator that's working for stocks now are Trump's tweets.

[mk4]

- bitcoin is hardly affected by the upcoming US Presidential election

..so far. Take note that this chart(and the movement divergence) is only hours of trading activity, and bitcoin can definitely continue following the S&P500 till whoever knows when.

[pooya87]

But bitcoin didn't always follow the market and it doesn't have to continue to do so in the future.

the thing is that bitcoin has never followed any other markets ever. just because there are handful of coincidences that make the two charts look similar on occasions isn't enough proof of "following" the other market.
the fact is that from the start of the market a decade ago, bitcoin market has been a unique and a stand alone beast of a market that moves on its own.

[hugeblack]

It is wrong to say such comparisons only because the charts are similar, all of the gold, stocks, and cryptocurrencies carry different investment characteristics from each other, so they do not have similarity between them, but each of them has a different scale from the other and does not follow each other, but there are factors that affect them all so that they show the same effect (Chart.)

Therefore, if your analysis is that the current influence has made BTC and stocks similar to each other, then you may be right.

[mk4]

It is wrong to say such comparisons only because the charts are similar, all of the gold, stocks, and cryptocurrencies carry different investment characteristics from each other, so they do not have similarity between them, but each of them has a different scale from the other and does not follow each other, but there are factors that affect them all so that they show the same effect (Chart.)

Therefore, if your analysis is that the current influence has made BTC and stocks similar to each other, then you may be right.

Well guess what mate, the fact is, there is a correlation between how bitcoin and the stock market moves. This isn't even my opinion or "analysis", I'm just presenting factual data that's freely accessible by anyone lol. 🤷‍♂️

[Coin_trader]

I observe this too and I notice that they are really correlated to each other when you analyze there chart. Correlated by means of how there price behave during some major event. If you remember when stock market crash last March, BTC was affected too even though it's not part of the stocks. If BTC is not correlated to stock market then the price must pump or stay during that time because cryptocurrency is the other alternative investment opportunity for stocks traders that dodging stocks crash.

[wack slacker]

The US stock market is being hit hard by who will continue to be the next president in the upcoming election. Both businesses and investors are preparing their own capital allocation plans. They are cautious at this time, so US stocks are showing signs of hesitation and decline.
Bitcoin is completely different, Bitcoin has liquidity around the world and is affected by many different factors, according to technical analysis Bitcoin is easier to value.
All the above is just my guess, every market has uncertainties and it is difficult to know exactly.

[Mr.sprin]

bitcoin doesn't follow the market but bitcoin is fundamentally self-sufficient, sometimes it just happens to be the same chart as the fiat market but it's just a coincidence.
I see that the bitcoin market from the past is not guided by any other market, the advantages of bitcoin are not as predictable as the fiat market.

[buwaytress]

I think this isn't a break up (yet). More like Bitcoin got a bit fed up and is off on a wild weekend for "me time" while letting stocks just go off and get over their hangover.

Thing is, investors invest, and Bitcoin's just in addition to stocks et all. Across all class of assets we have the same sentiment wave, in general. When people feel happy and confident in the economy (aka stocks), they're happy and confident to dip into Bitcoin.

That's the one that needs decoupling first for this price correlation to cease.

[dothebeats]

A slight divergence from the trend. Let us draw conclusions when the day closes for the stock markets and see whether they meet again in some common points. From what I'm seeing, as election draws near, more traders of the stock market are making their moves depending on what's up on the current polls. Other traders of bitcoin don't seem to care about this event that's why it still stays on its momentum while the Americans are handling their own domestic market. It's interesting, though not surprising since we know that bitcoin and the stock markets are not that tightly-knit that most of the time they go their own separate ways.

[mk4]

I think this isn't a break up (yet). More like Bitcoin got a bit fed up and is off on a wild weekend for "me time" while letting stocks just go off and get over their hangover.

I like that take. The price movements of both platforms are not necessarily a "breakup", but more of like a "cool off" when talking about relationships lmao, and will pretty much just come back together after a short while.

[BrewMaster]

this would be a start if the $12k resistance is broken in the coming upward pushes. then we can see how bitcoin starts shooting up as some FOMO shapes up even if for a short period of time.
by that time bitcoin will be back on track just like always and it could maybe put an end to all the comparisons

[so98nn]

But bitcoin didn't always follow the market and it doesn't have to continue to do so in the future.

the thing is that bitcoin has never followed any other markets ever. just because there are handful of coincidences that make the two charts look similar on occasions isn't enough proof of "following" the other market.
the fact is that from the start of the market a decade ago, bitcoin market has been a unique and a stand alone beast of a market that moves on its own.

It moves on its own, yeah I believe the same. It is simply following it's own trend. It has it's own marketers, investors, no controlling authority. I never connected the dots between other markets and bitcoin market for this reason.

I mean if we started to match the graphs between two different markets (randomly) then there is probability that some of them will directly collide with the bitcoin.

Isn't it is but obvious? What S&P500 makes the difference anyway? Also, we are forgetting that one is controlled market while another is completely based on unpredicted volatility. So yeah they may not be the same.

[hatshepsut93]

This looks like and important event in short term, but it's a bit too early to announce that the correlation is over, it could easily return again, especially if something major happens. Just like how all markets reacted to covid-19, it's possible that all markets will again move together in response to some major event, it could even be the coronavirus once again.

[Leviathan.007]

Basically and according to theory everything in this world is related together. But, since bitcoin market is decentralized and not same as the traditional stock market this not be related to us stock market. However, I saw many reactions by bitcoin price to s&p500. Usually. whenever I want to do TA on bitcoin price I count bitcoin as an independent asset. What I can see from the chart above on OP post is, recently due to the US presidential election bitcoin price also got effected for a little bit.

[pooya87]

But bitcoin didn't always follow the market and it doesn't have to continue to do so in the future.

the thing is that bitcoin has never followed any other markets ever. just because there are handful of coincidences that make the two charts look similar on occasions isn't enough proof of "following" the other market.
the fact is that from the start of the market a decade ago, bitcoin market has been a unique and a stand alone beast of a market that moves on its own.

It moves on its own, yeah I believe the same. It is simply following it's own trend. It has it's own marketers, investors, no controlling authority. I never connected the dots between other markets and bitcoin market for this reason.

I mean if we started to match the graphs between two different markets (randomly) then there is probability that some of them will directly collide with the bitcoin.

Isn't it is but obvious? What S&P500 makes the difference anyway? Also, we are forgetting that one is controlled market while another is completely based on unpredicted volatility. So yeah they may not be the same.

i've said this multiple times in the past too, there are things that affect the economy in general such as the pandemic we are seeing. they can affect bitcoin price and other markets at the same time but it still doesn't mean there is any correlation between the markets. specially since the effects are very different. for instance COVID crashed the stock market and it is currently kept up by manipulation while it mostly caused panic in bitcoin market which recovered fast.

in any case, US stock market plummeted again due to stimulus talks while bitcoin broke $12k resistance and reached $12300

[nutildah]

But bitcoin didn't always follow the market and it doesn't have to continue to do so in the future.

the thing is that bitcoin has never followed any other markets ever. just because there are handful of coincidences that make the two charts look similar on occasions isn't enough proof of "following" the other market.
the fact is that from the start of the market a decade ago, bitcoin market has been a unique and a stand alone beast of a market that moves on its own.

The thing is you're completely wrong about this as always and anybody with two honest eyeballs can see the obviously creeping correlation between the two. If you don't trust your eyes there are a number of ways to mathematically measure correlation, which I've already done several times and you've already dismissed several times.

Being in firm denial of something does not render it nonexistent.

For the thousandth time: the more highly invested Wall Street is in bitcoin, the stronger the correlation between market movements become. I honestly don't know how you can still deny this reality given what happened in March when the stock market and bitcoin crashed side-by-side.