20 Day Price Forecast (8.2% error)

[Sindelar1938]

Sounds like a very promising prediction approach

Have bookmarked your website with a view to following

[K128kevin]

Sounds like a very promising prediction approach

Have bookmarked your website with a view to following

Thanks! I hope the predictions serve you well

[akujin]

[K128kevin]

This is interesting, thanks for tracking it's degree of accuracy like this!

I wouldn't say this is the neural network's best work but it's not too bad I guess. It missed that bump in the beginning which probably threw it off a bit, but it seems to have done a pretty good job at other points in the graph. We'll see how it continues in the future!

[Cassius]

Just curious - on the 20-day prediction the price drops to $556 on 27/3 (two days time) but this doesn't happen on the 5-day prediction. Is this a bug or an artefact of the way they are calculated?

[K128kevin]

Just curious - on the 20-day prediction the price drops to $556 on 27/3 (two days time) but this doesn't happen on the 5-day prediction. Is this a bug or an artefact of the way they are calculated?

It's probably a result of the fact that the 20 day prediction has such a high average error. I wouldn't count on the 20 day prediction being particularly accurate. In all probability there will be some real-life events that occur in that time period which unpredictably change bitcoin prices. Those predictions are just a lot less reliable.

[m3g4tr0n]

10 Hours ago, it was predicting ~535 for 9-10pm Eastern time, now it's 2 hours away and it's over 7% higher at ~575.

I want to see this thing be great, but that's a huge difference.

[solarflare]

Would be nice to have the error margin projected on the graph!

[K128kevin]

10 Hours ago, it was predicting ~535 for 9-10pm Eastern time, now it's 2 hours away and it's over 7% higher at ~575.

I want to see this thing be great, but that's a huge difference.

Yeah it did mess that up - that was a pretty big change. A 7% change in the 24 hour prediction is pretty rare and I think that's the first change that far outside the average margin of error that I've seen. That will happen sometimes though, and trading based on these predictions may cause people to lose money sometimes. However, I believe it is correct more often than incorrect and that in the long run, if someone were to trade based on these charts they would end up earning money. That's why I'm testing the trade simulator project I describe in the Coming Soon page - so far it's earned a small amount of money but it hasn't had a lot of opportunities yet since prices have been pretty stable.

[arepo]

10 Hours ago, it was predicting ~535 for 9-10pm Eastern time, now it's 2 hours away and it's over 7% higher at ~575.

I want to see this thing be great, but that's a huge difference.

Yeah it did mess that up - that was a pretty big change. A 7% change in the 24 hour prediction is pretty rare and I think that's the first change that far outside the average margin of error that I've seen. That will happen sometimes though, and trading based on these predictions may cause people to lose money sometimes. However, I believe it is correct more often than incorrect and that in the long run, if someone were to trade based on these charts they would end up earning money. That's why I'm testing the trade simulator project I describe in the Coming Soon page - so far it's earned a small amount of money but it hasn't had a lot of opportunities yet since prices have been pretty stable.

i'm not sure trading based on this alone is a very good idea. using it to inform trading decisions along with other inputs is probably a safer strategy. an obvious weakness is that although the average error may be single-digits, there could be individual instances where the actual error is quite large, though these are rare enough that the average error remains low. depending on the size of your margin, one such instance could easily destroy your trading profitability.

--arepo

[Twilight_Sparkle]

Would be nice to have the error margin projected on the graph!

+1

[K128kevin]

i'm not sure trading based on this alone is a very good idea. using it to inform trading decisions along with other inputs is probably a safer strategy. an obvious weakness is that although the average error may be single-digits, there could be individual instances where the actual error is quite large, though these are rare enough that the average error remains low. depending on the size of your margin, one such instance could easily destroy your trading profitability.

--arepo

I completely agree. I would use these predictions as a guideline but I definitely wouldn't follow them strictly 100% of the time. You definitely have to read up on the latest news and factor that into your decision as well. I believe that combining the neural network predictions with your own (presumably reasonable and somewhat intelligent) judgement could earn you a lot of money.

[Alley]

I think this is going to be a bad few days for bitcoin price.  This IRS news will confuse and frustrate people and buying will be low.  I don't see it going over $600 for at least a week.  Maybe a month.

[K128kevin]

I think this is going to be a bad few days for bitcoin price.  This IRS news will confuse and frustrate people and buying will be low.  I don't see it going over $600 for at least a week.  Maybe a month.

hmm maybe... it looks like the price is dipping down a bit. I think that the IRS taxing bitcoin is beneficial in the long run though. Bitcoin has to be taxed somehow for it to be viable as a currency, plus taxing it is a form of recognition and this gives it some more legitimacy.

[rebuilder]

The algorithm seems to disagree with current price action quite violently... Right now it's predicting a rise to the 580's within 24 hours.

[K128kevin]

Yeah I know, I'm curious to see if it shoots back up again. I think that it will, but it's hard to be sure. Like I wrote on the about page, it can have trouble when real-life events significantly affect bitcoin prices (like the China news in this case). So we'll see how well it does.

[segeln]

it can have trouble when real-life events significantly affect bitcoin prices (like the China news in this case).

what about data-updating more quickly ? So you are better reacting to real life Events.
I will repeat my proposal until you have experienced many times that you should have done it earlier.

[Cassius]

Today opened at 580 so it's not impossible. Seems unlikely but let's see what THE MACHINE says (Person of Interest, anyone?).

[K128kevin]

what about data-updating more quickly ? So you are better reacting to real life Events.
I will repeat my proposal until you have experienced many times that you should have done it earlier.

Haha yeah you really seem insistent on that upgrade lol. I do plan on doing that in addition to some other ways of possibly restructuring the way predictions are made in an attempt to increase accuracy. Right now I just got back to school from spring break though and I have a ton of work -_- haven't been able to do a lot with the predictions yet. I'll probably get started on this stuff around Wednesday next week... I should have much more free time by then.

[K128kevin]

Well this is not looking particularly promising at the moment lol