20 Day Price Forecast (8.2% error)

[porcupine87]

The average error is generally between 8.1% and 8.3% (meaning that if it predicts $500, the price will usually be between $460 and $540).

So you wanna say, that the in a 50% confidence intervall price will be in the intervall +-8% of the current price? OMG. I'll make millions with this information! I don't know. It seems to be nice but I need no neural network for this info.

Just out of curiousity. How far does your neural network go back in time? I just wonder why all lines go up all the time.

[K128kevin]

So you wanna say, that the in a 50% confidence intervall price will be in the intervall +-8% of the current price? OMG. I'll make millions with this information! I don't know. It seems to be nice but I need no neural network for this info.

Just out of curiousity. How far does your neural network go back in time? I just wonder why all lines go up all the time.

Well first of all, it doesn't always predict the price to rise. It predicts for the price to fall as well, though it would make sense if it predicted for the price to rise more than fall since that is what it has done more of throughout history.

Second, yeah the 20 day graph isn't very reliable. That's why I have the note there, and I also specify this in the about page. The 20 day chart only exists because it is interesting to see and a lot of people asked for it.

There is no confidence interval for where the price will fall in relation to the average error. The average error means that on average, predictions are off by that amount. If you have the neural network make predictions at every point in bitstamp's history and average how far off it was, you will get those numbers that I have put above the graphs. It probably comes more down to something like 90% of the time the price is in that interval, and 10% of the time it is a relatively significant amount off.

This tool isn't something you want to use exclusively and just blindly follow. However, I do think it is useful if you combine it with looking at the news and using your own judgement.

[porcupine87]

So you wanna say, that the in a 50% confidence intervall price will be in the intervall +-8% of the current price? OMG. I'll make millions with this information! I don't know. It seems to be nice but I need no neural network for this info.

Just out of curiousity. How far does your neural network go back in time? I just wonder why all lines go up all the time.

Well first of all, it doesn't always predict the price to rise. It predicts for the price to fall as well, though it would make sense if it predicted for the price to rise more than fall since that is what it has done more of throughout history.

Second, yeah the 20 day graph isn't very reliable. That's why I have the note there, and I also specify this in the about page. The 20 day chart only exists because it is interesting to see and a lot of people asked for it.

There is no confidence interval for where the price will fall in relation to the average error. The average error means that on average, predictions are off by that amount. If you have the neural network make predictions at every point in bitstamp's history and average how far off it was, you will get those numbers that I have put above the graphs. It probably comes more down to something like 90% of the time the price is in that interval, and 10% of the time it is a relatively significant amount off.

This tool isn't something you want to use exclusively and just blindly follow. However, I do think it is useful if you combine it with looking at the news and using your own judgement.

Ah ok, I read it wrong. I thought 8% is the average error for the daily prediction. 1.3% for the daily prediction and 2.59% for the 5 day is good. I chanllenced that with the prediction (price today = price tomorrow = price in 5 days) and the error was between 2.8 and 6% for the daily prediction and 4 to 16% for the 5day. I started at 4.feb and went back 1 month, 3m, 6m, 1y and 2y.

So when your network is still prediction higher prices although we have a down trend since 2 months I guess you go back a few months, right?

[porcupine87]

But:

The average error means that on average, predictions are off by that amount. If you have the neural network make predictions at every point in bitstamp's history and average how far off it was, you will get those numbers that I have put above the graphs.

There could be a logical flaw. Think about it. The more neurons you take, the better you can adjust it to the history. Take 1000 neurons and a big amount of computing power and you can lower the average error to 0.1%. But do you really think you can predict the future better?

Did you ever test your model? I don't mean the error you produce by taking the learning data. I mean the actual prediction for an at that point unknown future. For example: You are prediction 489.2$ for tomorrow 4pm GMT. Now save that prediction and compare with the real value tomorrow.

I think then you get a much larger number than 1.3%

[pedrosoft]

very very interesting

[Hpotsirc]

Did you ever test your model? I don't mean the error you produce by taking the learning data. I mean the actual prediction for an at that point unknown future. For example: You are prediction 489.2$ for tomorrow 4pm GMT. Now save that prediction and compare with the real value tomorrow.

I think then you get a much larger number than 1.3%

I think this is because the error adds up. So 1.3% only applies to the forecast of next hour and when you predict for example 12 hours ahead you could end up being 15.6% off.
It could propably be helpful to give additional information like average error of predicted price 6/12/18/24 hours ahead. That gives a better impression of the capabilities of this model.

[honorem]

These are terrible predictions