Any idea when the Bitcoin Mempool will stop being so congested?

[Get-Paid.com]

The fees are so high, this is terrible:

https://bitcoinfees.net/

Total mempool transactions: 111,140

When is it going to go down back to 2,000 - 4,000 ??

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[mocacinno]

The only thing i can tell you is that anybody who gives you a precise answer to your question is probably guessing...

There's no way of telling how long it'll take before we see <10sat/vbyte fees again... In 2018 the optimal fee was >10sat/vbyte for multiple months... This time it could be for a couple of days, a couple of weeks, a couple of months... Or even longer.

[jrrsparkles]

The fees are so high, this is terrible:

https://bitcoinfees.net/

Total mempool transactions: 111,140

When is it going to go down back to 2,000 - 4,000 ??

Its not possible to measure when the things will be normal but still the answer for your question can be, Mempool gets less number of transactions only when the price of bitcoin gets stable for few days, either increase or decrease in the price is going to be a cause for more people to buy or sell their coins.

[Get-Paid.com]

Why are Bitcoin miners not speeding up and expediting the confirmations? Is it for personal gain? in that case that means Bitcoin is centralized and not decentralized because miners can control its fees?

[mocacinno]

Why are Bitcoin miners not speeding up and expediting the confirmations? Is it for personal gain? in that case that means Bitcoin is centralized and not decentralized because miners can control its fees?

There is no way for them to "speed up" or "expedite" confirmations... They (the miners) have hardware running to find a sha256(sha256(block header)) that's under the current target. It's not like they can increase the target by themselfs nor do they have a button they can click to increase their hashrate (in order to do this, they have to buy expensive ASIC's, which can take several weeks to arrive and configure). An increase in the target will only happen if the average time between blocks is > 10 minutes, at this point the difficulty will be decreased and the target will increase at the next difficulty adjustment.

If you look at any block explorer, for example this one: https://blockstream.info/ you'll see that the last 10 blocks were completely full (out of the 10 blocks that were shown). This basically means that individual miners are not hindering anything, they're doing everything they can to confirm as many transactions as possible.

Appartently there was a significant drop in hashrate recently, it's being attributed to chinese miners turning their gear off because they have to pay higher power prices this season (it's a rumour, there's no proof AFAIK), so they can't mine profitably. This might cause the average time between 2 blocks to be > 10 minutes. But still, we'll have to wait untill the next diff adjustment... An individual miner cannot change, fix, or speed up anything.

The problem is basically that more transactions are broadcasted per timeframe than can be fitted into blocks at the same timeframe... It can be caused by to many transactions, or by a drop in the network's hashrate (so less blocks will be solved). In this case, it looks like it's both; more transactions + drop in the hashrate.

[joniboini]

Why are Bitcoin miners not speeding up and expediting the confirmations? Is it for personal gain? in that case that means Bitcoin is centralized and not decentralized because miners can control its fees?

There's no need to twist it around into centralized vs decentralized debate, especially if how miners work is not clearly understood. If you want to make transactions and don't want to pay $5 for it then wait for the weekend, the mempool is usually cleared up at that time.

[Wind_FURY]

Why are Bitcoin miners not speeding up and expediting the confirmations? Is it for personal gain? in that case that means Bitcoin is centralized and not decentralized because miners can control its fees?

I noticed that there has been more misinformed posts and questions than normal about the mempool, based on a lack of understanding of Bitcoin, how it works, its inticracies, and its "imperfections".

Please research, and understand how it works before posting misstatements, and find out that its "imperfections" actually are caused by important design-decisions that make Bitcoin robust and censorship-resistant.

[Get-Paid.com]

then wait for the weekend, the mempool is usually cleared up at that time.

A poster above you said the following:

The only thing i can tell you is that anybody who gives you a precise answer to your question is probably guessing...

So are you guessing then?

[Get-Paid.com]

I noticed that there has been more misinformed posts and questions than normal about the mempool, based on a lack of understanding of Bitcoin, how it works, its inticracies, and its "imperfections".

If you can't explain why the fee is so high and you only say it's only a matter of "supply and demand" so supply and demand cannot explain why the stock market goes up or why it goes down but overall there is a rational to it and overall it does go up like real estate ... however Bitcoin is much more anonymous than the stock market, so I was asking for a rational behind this which so far I didn't get except for the first poster who somehow explained it might be related to China.

And I see in Bitcointalk lots of threads with Broken English such as this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5285043.0

Title: Can Bitcoin trasnaction can canceled
Can (a) Bitcoin trasnaction (=transaction) can (get) cancelled?

So apparently broken English is fine but a proper "research" is not? I honestly don't get you. From all the threads being posted here this specific thread is the one that is bothering you?

 

[NeuroticFish]

Total mempool transactions: 111,140

When is it going to go down back to 2,000 - 4,000 ??

I will try to give a you a simple and clear answer.
This "when" doesn't depends on miners, Bitcoin code doesn't allow them do more.
This "when"  depends on those who send so many transactions.
And this means nobody can give you proper estimation.

Now I will guess. I think that a big number of transactions is caused by the trading (and arbitrage) bots.
So my guess is that when the price will stop hopping around the mempool will also clear up.
I know it's not a clear date, but it's the best I can do.

[Get-Paid.com]

So my guess is that when the price will stop hopping around the mempool will also clear up.

The price has been pretty "stable" in the past 24 hours around $13,200 - $13,500

[barto123]

A bunch of Chinese miners had to turn their rigs off, hash-rate should return over the next few day as they power back up.

Failing this, difficulty adjustment next week should help, reassess then if you can afford to wait for your transactions to go through.

If the mempool fully clears again, take the opportunity to CoinJoin, send to Bech32 addresses (for reduced miner fees), then open a few large lightning channels.

You have to prepare yourself for even higher fees in the future.

Having a fee market is healthy, you have to prevent spamming and incentivize the miners to churn transactions.

[NeuroticFish]

The price has been pretty "stable" in the past 24 hours around $13,200 - $13,500

And the mempool is also 12MB smaller than yesterday.

[mocacinno]

The main problem in this thread is that you've asked something nobody can ever know for sure...

If you ask a question like: how to solve this mathematical equation... Or: i've got a problem with this script... Or: Why do i get error message x... Or: what's the maximum size of a transaction... People can give a definitive answer... Sure, it might be hard, or it might depend on your os, your settings, your version, or other parameters, but people WILL be able to give an anwer.

In your case, you basically asked a question like: who will win the US elections? Sure, people can make educated guesses, but they'll always remain guesses since nobody knows how many people will actually vote, nor do you know who they'll vote for. The only way of answering this question is: wait and see... That's exactly the answer to your question: "Wait and see".
People can make educated guesses based on some parameters (like the shutting down of some chinese miners, or the volatility of the price, or... anything at all), but there is no model nor certainty as to what combination of factors caused the mempool congestion, nor is there certainty about when it'll stop.

Your question basically translates into 2 questions that can never be answered completely:

• When will all bitcoin users (both present and future) stop broadcasting less transactions in a certain timeframe than miners will be able to put in the blocks they solve. Since there is no way to know all bitcoin users, their plans, their motivations, this question can not be answered
• When will the hashrate rise again: every 2016 blocks, there is a difficulty adjustment so the average time between 2 blocks is once again ~10 minutes. However, if the hashrate drops between 2 retargets, the average time between 2 blocks will be > 10 minutes untill the next retarget. A bigger time between 2 blocks = less space for transactions. We know that the difficulty will retarget every 2016 blocks, however we have no idear about miner's plans... If the hashrate steadily decreases the average time between 2 blocks will be > 10 minutes, if the hashrate steadily increases the avg time will be < 10 minutes

[Wind_FURY]

Why are Bitcoin miners not speeding up and expediting the confirmations? Is it for personal gain? in that case that means Bitcoin is centralized and not decentralized because miners can control its fees?

I noticed that there has been more misinformed posts and questions than normal about the mempool, based on a lack of understanding of Bitcoin, how it works, its inticracies, and its "imperfections".

Please research, and understand how it works before posting misstatements, and find out that its "imperfections" actually are caused by important design-decisions that make Bitcoin robust and censorship-resistant.

If you can't explain why the fee is so high and you only say it's only a matter of "supply and demand" so supply and demand cannot explain why the stock market goes up or why it goes down but overall there is a rational to it and overall it does go up like real estate ... however Bitcoin is much more anonymous than the stock market, so I was asking for a rational behind this which so far I didn't get except for the first poster who somehow explained it might be related to China.

 

Included my post to you for everyone to see the context.

I can explain, but as someone who has a service that pays in Bitcoin, do you actually want to learn and understand how Bitcoin works, and know why the network is the way it is?

Plus yes, it has something to do with "demand and the supply", but not the supply/demand you're thinking about.

Or with that reply, are you simply trolling?

[Get-Paid.com]

Or with that reply, are you simply trolling?

Do you really think the thread was created for trolling purposes?!

YOU are the one who has an issue with this thread, I was wondering how come you have no troubles with other threads containing broken English, I can find an issue with every thread if I want to.

Seriously, what is your problem?

I think I understand how Bitcoin works very well, I don't need you to certify a degree for me to acknowledge my level of understanding of how Bitcoin works - I had a very simple question in this thread which was referring to the high fees and the mempool, and I saw no other thread about this in this forum, at least not recently - assuming most people are happy to pay high fees - but I'm not ... I took the initiative to ask "what's going on" and got some nice information here ... you seem to turn this into a personal attack.

I don't know you and I am not interested in knowing your opinion, if you have a minor issue with this thread you don't have to respond nor be an *** about it.

[7788bitcoin]

When is it going to go down back to 2,000 - 4,000 ??

When everyone stops sending the transactions and shift to other coins .

The transaction charges are high and it is really frustrating to wait for a much longer time for the coins to get confirmed especially when you need a confirmation in many gambling sites and now i am waiting for days to get a confirmation and missed a few matches to wage a bet and that really is frustrating but glad some zero confirmation sites are there as well.

[Sithara007]

We can't deny the fact that the number of users are going up with every passing year. This is a positive news, but it do have some disadvantages associated with it. One example is that the mempool size get enlarged beyond a tolerable limit, as there is an increase in the number of transactions per hour. The easiest way to resolve this is to increase the block size. But for that, we need unanimous decision from the community. But the community remains divided on this, and as long as there is no unity, the block size can't be increased.

[tranthidung]

In the last 30 days, there are 3 periods in which mempool size exceeds 50 MB (first in early days of October, second around 21 October at 53 MB -- the purple arrow, and the third is now with 62 MB in mempool. In percent, there is an increase of 17% in mempool size compares to what it was on 21 October 2020. After that day, mempool was dipped and almost clear.

I am not over pessimistic but nothing is too bad like a catastrophe here and now.

• Institutional and weekend effects
• A bit stability of bitcoin next few days
• We can have better fee rate. It is my expectation but if it happens, people should move or consolidate their bitcoin when fee is cheaper before mid of November.

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#1,30d

[witcher_sense]

To my way of thinking, this problem of congestions in the bitcoin mempool has to do with the finitely scarce nature of bitcoin and the supply of and demand for it. Bitcoin is scarce in two senses: its total supply is strictly finite and the block size is limited in terms of space within it. Because its total supply is known and unchangeable, any increase in the demand (for whatever reason) will cause its price to grow. Market activity intensifies because equilibrium has been disturbed and that results in an increase in the number of transactions.

Due to the fact that bitcoin block is limited in size and delayed in time, any increased demand for bitcoin will also increase the demand for limited space of bitcoin block. People compete with each other to get their transactions included in the next block, because there is disbalance on the market, the demand for bitcoin is not yet satisfied. When equilibrium is finally found, the number of transactions will get back to normal and people will stop competing for block space. It will decrease transaction fees and clear congestions in the mempool.