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Author Topic: Sportsbooks often offer different odds for the same type of bet  (Read 892 times)
Ucy
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November 04, 2020, 08:40:12 AM
 #21

Interesting. The "Double Chance" sounds easy. ... Is it or no? I wonder if it has higher chances of winning (as the name seems to suggest?).
Is that a favorite choice for bettors? or perhaps is not that common or not evryone is aware that such option exist?
The double chance has a higher probability to go in your favor since you are betting on two out of three outcomes. But the odds are also much lower compared to a straight bet. It is hard to say if it it is a good choice or not. It depends on the person. Do you like bigger risks and greater rewards, or do you prefer a safer bet. Everyone is different.

Interesting. Is it a new thing in betting world? I guess I have seen a post on similar option (double chance or something) but I thought It was too easy and didn't consider it too much.

I actually prefer a safe bet. The risk has to little or zero before I can put In something above "small bets". That is basically what I do during crypto trading.  If it's bet I have little to no skills for I would bet with small amount.










Interesting. The "Double Chance" sounds easy. ... Is it or no? I wonder if it has higher chances of winning (as the name seems to suggest?).
Is that a favorite choice for bettors? or perhaps is not that common or not evryone is aware that such option exist?

In a mathematical way Double Chance has more probability to be a win compared to a single money line bet.Double chance is 66% possibility to win and single money line is 33% which is clear which bet has more possibilities to win.It sounds easy but surprises always happen in soccer and you can lose a double chance bet easily.It is not an option bettors like because of the low odds it has compared to money lines.

In regards to the low odd, I guess why bettors don't choose Double Chance or the one with high probability to be a win is because their odds are low? And the low odds donot give much profit, right?
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November 04, 2020, 11:52:37 AM
Last edit: November 04, 2020, 01:41:00 PM by tyKiwanuka
 #22

The reason for these different odds is the number of possible outcomes. If you just have two possible outcomes, it's way easier to balance your book and thus you can have lower vig and better odds consequently. And accept bigger stakes also Wink

That second screenshot with Genoa/Torino match has only two possible outcomes for both bets, but here I think, that the calculation is just done differently. For the AH0 bet, they just use their normal AH compiling, while for the DNB they take the 1X2 odds and go on from there, but not sure.

If you are really ambitious, you shouldn't take any DC "straight" bets on offer though, but make your own ones Smiley Take the Genoa vs Torino match again and you have these double chance odds (all screenhots taken from Sportsbet)



Here are the 1X2 odds:



Now I put my stake as the following (lets assume, I want to bet 100 units):

56.78 units on away win @2.55
43.22 units on the draw @3.35

Et voilá I have odds of @1.4479 and not @1.43 as SB offers me for using their pre-build double chance. There are tools to calculate your stakes or you just make your own in Excel in 1 minute. With 10sec of extra work, you will then win additional 1.4479 units, if you win your bet Smiley

For AH bets this usually doesn't work out, because you are using the 1X2 odds to build it and have this bigger vig there already. If I construct my own AH0 bet on Genoa for example with the 1X2 bets, I only get @1.9642, while SB offers me 2.02 for this bet in their AH markets already.



Your stake money is refunded if the match ends in a draw.

There is/was an austrian bookmaker, who actually refunded only 90% of AH0 bets, if the game ended in a draw. Complete rip-off, but not sure, if they are still doing it.

.....wie die Zeit fliegt.....
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November 04, 2020, 12:13:46 PM
 #23

Just new to this "Double Chance" betting option because usually, most bookies offer only a DRAW stance. And it regards to refund system, I don't think that they refund the whole amount you bet if ever the result is DRAW.

I've found simple calculations in regard to this situation

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/How-to-Calculate-Double-Chance-stakes-and-odds/7RX2XRRAWGLBXD8V

I've found this very helpful and have it made easy as some examples make clear to understand. I hope this will help others as well.

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November 04, 2020, 05:06:30 PM
 #24

For example,.  I bet on -3 on a certain team, and the game went into OT, but after the game my bet covered, but I was wrong because the game does not include the OT only the regular minutes only and they have not written it, so now, I only bet on game where there's words "including overtime" so I will not make the same mistake again.
Consider any bet you make on sports to be valid only during regular time, unless it is stated otherwise. But it depends from bookie to bookie. The fiat bookies I use usually cover only the regular time, not OT. I just took a look at Sportsbet.io and their basketball bets cover overtime. Match outcome, Handicaps, Total Points - all these bets include OT.

FortuneJack on the hand, doesn't. The 1x2 bets are only valid for regular time. The Spread and Total Points wagers don't mention any more details so I consider those to be for regular time only as well.

56.78 units on away win @2.55
43.22 units on the draw @3.35

Et voilá I have odds of @1.4479 and not @1.43 as SB offers me for using their pre-build double chance. There are tools to calculate your stakes or you just make your own in Excel in 1 minute. With 10sec of extra work, you will then win additional 1.4479 units, if you win your bet Smiley
I am interested how you made those calculations. Can you tell me more about that?

There is/was an austrian bookmaker, who actually refunded only 90% of AH0 bets, if the game ended in a draw. Complete rip-off, but not sure, if they are still doing it.
I haven't heard about that. I know two Austrian bookies: Admiral and Cashpoint. There is also bet-at-home but I believe they are from Germany.


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November 04, 2020, 06:26:47 PM
Merited by Pmalek (1)
 #25

I am interested how you made those calculations. Can you tell me more about that?

The formulas are:

Odds away win*TotalStake / (Odds away win + Odds draw)
Odds draw*TotalStake / (Odds away win + Odds draw)

So your stake for draw: 2.55*100/(2.55+3.35) = 43.22
For away win: 3.35*100/(2.55+3.35) = 56.78

I used an online calculator though, which you can find just via googling, for example this one. Just put in the odds and you will see.

I haven't heard about that. I know two Austrian bookies: Admiral and Cashpoint. There is also bet-at-home but I believe they are from Germany.

This said bookie was/is Interwetten. B-a-h is austrian bookie also, they have big betting industry in Austria. Intertops, Wetten-Schwechat, bwin is austrian as well imo and gazillions more, though some of them have disappeared in the last years Wink

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November 05, 2020, 11:17:37 AM
 #26

@tyKiwanuka
I suck at math so I didn't figure out at first how to use the bet calculator you linked. But it seems you only need to add the 2.55 and 3.35 odds under W1 and W2 and the calculator does everything else. Did you change any other settings? 

The Rev. says 44.79 so that is where you got those 1.4479 odds from.

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November 05, 2020, 11:37:41 AM
 #27

Here is a piece of information that many of you have probably noticed. But if you aren't that much into betting on sports, you might not know about it.
If you bet on football/soccer, you know that there is a type of bet called Double Chance. In such a selection two outcomes of the match result in a win of your bet.

I have seen other types betting options that bookies use where you can bet on the same outcome, they just call it differently and offer higher-lower odds. Share your own examples of what you have discovered on different platforms while gambling on sports. 
Thanks for useful information! I've seen these variations of the bets and understood double chance and such, but I did not look into what Asian handicap is and how it's counted, so I'm surprised that it's the same bet with a different name and odds. But, to be honest, I still find the Asian handicap confusing (I read a bit more about it, but it's not something easy to remember and grasp, unlike the names of the bets that summarize how they work with words).
As for the reason the odds are different, the way I understand it is that the odds are adjusted based on how people place their bets (to ensure the sportsbook is in profit anyway), and perhaps people often bet on handicap differently than on those other equivalent bets (because it's different kinds of people with different background on average or something like this).

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November 05, 2020, 11:50:25 AM
Merited by Pmalek (1)
 #28

Did you change any other settings?

No, I just put the odds in. You can do a lot with the calculator I linked, there are easier ones and I normally use this, but it's with german language. If you scroll down a bit to "Einsatzverteilung", you have the same calculator, but a bit more easy to use.


Source: https://www.wettforum.info/systemwettenrechner

You just put in your stake and the odds (green) and then get the optimal stakes for the two bets (blue) and your total odds (red).

If you tick the box for the draw.....


Source: https://www.wettforum.info/systemwettenrechner

....you then have created your own AH0 with the 1X2 odds (but as said, most of the time not worth it). You can also make an AH with getting your money back for Torino win and getting paid out in case of a draw - just tick the box above then:


Source: https://www.wettforum.info/systemwettenrechner

You can also choose more outcomes for outright bets or whatever, like for example you want to bet on either Leicester/ManU/Arsenal winning the EPL title, you can then get your optimal stake to win the same amount with each bet. Lots of things to play around with Grin

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November 05, 2020, 12:38:24 PM
Merited by kryptqnick (2), tyKiwanuka (1)
 #29

@kryptqnick

Asian handicaps sounded difficult to understand for me as well the first time I saw them. But once you figure them out, they aren't. What is so special about these lines is that the bookies offer you a way to get the whole, or 50% of your stake bet. Or, you win the entire bet, or just 50% of it. With regular 1x2 betting you either win or lose, that is it.

Here are a few basics:

The 0 AH
This is basically the same as Draw No Bet. If the team wins - you win your bet. In case of a draw, your stake is returned. You lose if your selection losses.

The -0.5 AH
This is the same as if you bet on a team to win the match, only the odds are different. So if you place a -0.5 AH on Barcelona, it means you are betting on them to win.

The -0.75 AH
This is where it gets a bit more complicated. You are actually placing two bets here. The first one is that the team will win by 2 or more goals difference. The 2nd bet is that they will win with 1 goal difference. For all other outcomes you will lose your bet.
To win the entire line, your selection must win with 2 or more goals difference. if the team wins by only 1 goal difference, you lose the first part of your bet, but you win the 2nd part.

An easy example:
You place an -0.75 AH on Barcelona. Your stake = $100. The odds are 2.0.
If Barca wins 2:0 or more, your bet wins and will return you $200. Profit: $100
If Barca wins 1:0, you win only $150. Profit: $50.
Just deduct 50% of the profits and that is what you will win.

The -0.25 AH
In this kind of line, you can win, lose half your stake, or lose the entire stake. If the team you bet on wins, you also win. If the team draws, you lose half your stake and the other half is returned to you. If the team losses, you also lose your stake.

The -1 AH
In this bet your team HAS to win by 2+ goals difference for you to profit. But if the team wins by 1 goal difference - your stake will be returned and bet voided. Compared to the -0.75 AH, you don't make any profit in this scenario. If the team draws or losses, you lose your wager as well.


Those are the -AH bets. There are also +AH bets. You place these on the underdogs.
 
The +0.5 AH
I mentioned this line in the OP. It's the same as the Double Chance (1x/x2/12) bets.

The +0.75 AH
Depending on the outcome of the match, this bet can have 4 different results and returns. If the team wins or draws the match, your bet also wins. If the team losses by 1 goal difference, you lose 50% of your stake. The other 50% is returned to you. If the team losses by 2+ goals difference, you lose your entire stake.

The +0.25 AH
To fully win on this line, your team must win. if your team draws, you only win half of your bet and half of the possible profit (remember the Barcelona example I mentioned above). In case of a loss, you also lose your bet.


This post hurt my fingers Grin

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November 06, 2020, 02:48:58 PM
 #30

Asian handicaps sounded difficult to understand for me as well the first time I saw them. But once you figure them out, they aren't. What is so special about these lines is that the bookies offer you a way to get the whole, or 50% of your stake bet. Or, you win the entire bet, or just 50% of it. With regular 1x2 betting you either win or lose, that is it.
Thanks for taking the time and writing such a lengthy explanation of AH. Now that I've read your explanation, this kind of betting actually sounds pretty attractive because it accounts for nuanced choices that other bets don't always offer. And if the odds make AH bets more profitable on average than analogous bets, it's worth it to learn how it's done and try it out.  Grin
I'll look at this post before betting, and after some time I'll probably remember all the options and numbers associated with them.

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November 07, 2020, 09:40:12 AM
 #31

Now that I've read your explanation, this kind of betting actually sounds pretty attractive because it accounts for nuanced choices that other bets don't always offer. And if the odds make AH bets more profitable on average than analogous bets, it's worth it to learn how it's done and try it out.  
Depending on the type of Asian Handicap, it can be either a safer bet or a more risky one. The odds will depend on that risk exposure. For example, the -0.75 AH will always have higher odds compared to a regular bet on the same team. That is because your selection needs to win by two goals difference for you to fully cover the line. A standard bet pays the same odds, whether your team wins by 1 or 4 goals difference.

In contrast to that, the 0 AH will have lower odds compared to a bet on a straight win. That is because the bookie returns your money in case of a draw. If a match you bet on ends in a loss, you loss your stake.

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November 07, 2020, 10:09:41 AM
 #32


A Draw No Bet means that if the team you bet on draws the match, your bet wont be lost. It will be voided, and you will get your stake money back. If the team you bet on wins, you also win your bet. In the screenshot you can see that a Genoa Draw No Bet has an odd of 1.88. A few lines above, you can play an 0 Asian handicap on Genoa, which is the same type of bet, but the odds are slightly higher. 1.93 compared to 1.88. If the AH 0 match ends in a draw - you bet is voided. If your team wins - you win, and you lose your money of course if the opposition wins.


I have seen other types betting options that bookies use where you can bet on the same outcome, they just call it differently and offer higher-lower odds. Share your own examples of what you have discovered on different platforms while gambling on sports. 


That is very interesting, I didn't know that about that. I am not an expert on sport betting but are we able to take advantage of the difference in the same bet? Just by looking at your example it seems that payouts are too small to tailor make a bet for us that is almost risk free. But theoretically if there is the same bet with different odds we should be ablle to combine them with an extra profit for us at the same levell of risks.
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November 08, 2020, 11:04:45 AM
 #33

That is very interesting, I didn't know that about that. I am not an expert on sport betting but are we able to take advantage of the difference in the same bet?
Are you taking about some arbitrage betting opportunity? Very unlikely. I have never seen huge differences between the odds. They are usually minimal. I don't think you will ever find a Draw no Bet on one bookie being 1.40 and a corresponding AH 0 line 2.10, or something like that, elsewhere that you could take advantage of.

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November 08, 2020, 11:27:28 AM
 #34

There might be different odds for the same types of bet but I don't think such differences are minimal. To my opinion they are to minimal that would influence your chances significantly and that you could actually take advantage of it no matter the small risk. Personally so far I haven't run into something like this.

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November 12, 2020, 12:08:17 PM
 #35

Isn't it normal that you often see the same odds and matches? Per minute on a busy day there are maybe 400 matches going on at the same time that you can bet on in all kinds of sports. does not seem to me that every company has a person of that competition in the stadium.

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November 13, 2020, 10:39:32 AM
 #36

@perla
What are you talking about? Check the first post and the comments by other users to understand what this thread is all about.
It has nothing to do with the sheer number of sports events on a given day or whatever it is that you are trying to say. 

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November 16, 2020, 06:52:08 PM
 #37

This is actually good for the first time I had an idea about a double chance bet , I actually don't engage in sport betting too much but for the starters I did search about the double chance bet.

For example you have 3 outcomes , this allows you to take a chance for 2 sides in just one bet. I do believe that it's actually a good idea , for a person like me it would mean the chances of me loosing are literally reduced and at the same time it's being used now a days .

Thank you for sharing this topic , I leaned something new today regarding the sports betting.

I would try and find sites offering double chance betting.

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November 16, 2020, 07:07:51 PM
 #38

Actually this happens a lot more than people believe specially in e-sports markets like the odds for a team to win 2-0 would be 2.5 while the odds for the same team to win match by handicap -1.5 would be different sometimes like 2.3 and sometimes 2.7 so this actually happens and I always check all markets to get the best odds before making a bet.

Actually this happens because of the low liquidity of the market like more bets placed on a particular market makes the odds more firm while lesser bets on the other market keep it different.

I never saw such odds discrepancy within the same event in big matches like French open final or any significant tennis game. I used to think this happens only in e-sports but surprised this also happens in soccer and other events as well.

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November 17, 2020, 07:42:32 AM
 #39

I would try and find sites offering double chance betting.
That is not going to be a problem. They are available by most respected bookies. I would be surprised if you manage to find sites that don't have double-chance betting.

@jostorres
I have never done any betting on esports, but good to know that such differences happen there as well. I keep finding more interesting odds variations. In one match that I followed live a few days ago, it was possible to make a live bet if the home team would win the match.

The bookie asks: Will Team A win the match? Two possible outcomes only - Yes and NO.
The odds of YES were at times a little higher than a straight bet on that team to win the match. 

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December 23, 2020, 08:25:43 PM
 #40

Wow. I thought that with modern actuarial science these sort of redundant bets/occurrences would be eliminated altogether. Guess I was wrong...

It would be interesting to see the sportsbook's logic behind having these divergent odds. If it is merely for marketing purposes then I would say it is borderline questionable from a reputation standpoint as it takes advantage of the average retail bettor's inability to process the implications of these events & odds.

But if it's because of some sort of error, then there could arise arbitrage opportunities given the odds gaps are high enough - so definitely be on the lookout on those.
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