Pmalek (OP)
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November 05, 2021, 08:27:07 AM Last edit: November 12, 2023, 09:50:02 AM by Pmalek |
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One more example from this morning where we can bet with different odds on different markets that have the same outcome. The match is Empoli - Genoa. For this match you can bet on: - An AH +0.5 bet on Genoa at 1.78.
- A double chance (X2) on Genoa at 1.72.
Take a look.
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kingangel
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November 13, 2021, 07:25:58 AM |
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this actually happens a lot more than people believe specially in e-sports markets like the odds for a team to win 2-0 would be 2.5 while the odds for the same team to win match by handicap -1.5 would be different sometimes like 2.3 and sometimes 2.7 so this actually happens and I always check all markets to get the best odds before making a bet. Well this topic has taught me some thing new in sports betting so thanks for that.
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KTChampions
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November 13, 2021, 07:44:45 AM |
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One more example from this morning where we can bet with different odds on different markets that have the same outcome. The match is Empoli - Genoa. For this match you can bet on: - An AH +0.5 bet on Genoa at 1.78.
- A double chance (X2) on Genoa at 1.72.
Take a look. Maybe this can be explained by the fact that the Asian betting market is less liquid and in order to attract liquidity there the bookmaker gives slightly better odds? Quite an interesting question, since on the one hand the difference in odds is insignificant, but in percentage it is 2% - and this is a serious value relative to the bookmaker's margin, which is 4-6%.
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Pmalek (OP)
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November 13, 2021, 08:01:54 AM |
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this actually happens a lot more than people believe specially in e-sports markets like the odds for a team to win 2-0 would be 2.5 while the odds for the same team to win match by handicap -1.5 would be different sometimes like 2.3... I don't play around with e-sports since I don't know anything about it. But if what you are saying is true and it's a common occurrence, there might be some possibilities to take advantage of the odds difference. Maybe this can be explained by the fact that the Asian betting market is less liquid and in order to attract liquidity there the bookmaker gives slightly better odds? Possibly, yes. I am sure that many people who even bet regularly don't know how Asian Handicap betting works, so they avoid it. Given a choice between a full-time bet and a -0.5 AH, many would probably put their money on the full-time result without thinking further.
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cafucafucafu
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November 13, 2021, 10:48:43 AM |
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One more example from this morning where we can bet with different odds on different markets that have the same outcome. The match is Empoli - Genoa. For this match you can bet on: - An AH +0.5 bet on Genoa at 1.78.
- A double chance (X2) on Genoa at 1.72.
Take a look. This is very interesting. I'm just curious though: how often do these opportunities come up, and how wide are the margins usually? Would you recommend seeking out these odds discrepancies for someone who is just a retail sportsbettor who wants to maximize their profits? Or is it a waste of time to look through that deeply?
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Shagnasty
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November 13, 2021, 10:54:37 AM |
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One more example from this morning where we can bet with different odds on different markets that have the same outcome. The match is Empoli - Genoa. For this match you can bet on: - An AH +0.5 bet on Genoa at 1.78.
- A double chance (X2) on Genoa at 1.72.
Take a look. This is very interesting. I'm just curious though: how often do these opportunities come up, and how wide are the margins usually? Would you recommend seeking out these odds discrepancies for someone who is just a retail sportsbettor who wants to maximize their profits? Or is it a waste of time to look through that deeply? This is some thing which i found new. I am doing sports betting since years but I never spotted this thing and now i see here. It is a very good point of knowledge actually and would really like to thank the op for creating this topic and letting us know about it.I can really make some changes in the way i bet and look for these kinds of opportunity.
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ralle14
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November 13, 2021, 11:31:55 AM |
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This is some thing which i found new. I am doing sports betting since years but I never spotted this thing and now i see here. It is a very good point of knowledge actually and would really like to thank the op for creating this topic and letting us know about it.I can really make some changes in the way i bet and look for these kinds of opportunity.
I'm surprised that you haven't seen this scenario come up from time to time as a lot of bookies commonly do these with their pre-live lines. This is very interesting.
I'm just curious though: how often do these opportunities come up, and how wide are the margins usually?
Would you recommend seeking out these odds discrepancies for someone who is just a retail sportsbettor who wants to maximize their profits? Or is it a waste of time to look through that deeply?
These odds differential happen very often, it's easier to spot when your bookie lines up all the markets for you. Here's an example from one of the World Cup qualifiers later today.
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Pmalek (OP)
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November 13, 2021, 11:59:55 AM |
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I'm just curious though: how often do these opportunities come up, and how wide are the margins usually? They are present in almost all football matches worldwide. Just open any of them and compare the full-time odds to the Asian Handicap lines and you will see. But not just that, there are other things you can notice. For example, if a match is a draw at the end of the first half, bookies will offer you live bets for the full-time result and the winner of the 2nd half. I have seen the odds being different here as well, even though the outcome is the same. If the first half ends with a draw, and you bet on the away team to win the 2nd half, it's exactly the same as if you were to bet on the away team to win in full-time. But the odds are different. Would you recommend seeking out these odds discrepancies for someone who is just a retail sportsbettor who wants to maximize their profits? Or is it a waste of time to look through that deeply? If your stakes are a few $/€, it really doesn't matter that much if the odds are 2.02 or 2.05 for example. But if you are a highroller and risktaker who bets with thousands of dollars per match, it's a different story.
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Cling18
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November 13, 2021, 01:35:11 PM |
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I havent seen this double instance but there is sometimes such a multitude of bets possible that some are over looked and much better value then others. I often see different odds for the same game in different places, can be quite tempting to try and balance the bias between different books in a rough arbitrage. Wording will vary and popularity and maybe even the layout of the site can alter who finds the bet and it ends up with different odds. Depending on whether I want to use up or spend a balance in one place, I might be more tempted to make use of the variety of types of bet possible in one place; also I'd argue crypto itself has an influence on the flow of cash vs dollar bets, etc.
This opportunity never came up to me either and to be honest, I didn't expect that this chance exists. If this scenario would come, I would love to try and experience it as well but of course, I still consider the fact that it would still be too risky. Sometimes grabbing new chances make things more exciting.
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AicecreaME
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November 13, 2021, 03:51:59 PM |
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Here is a piece of information that many of you have probably noticed. But if you aren't that much into betting on sports, you might not know about it. If you bet on football/soccer, you know that there is a type of bet called Double Chance. In such a selection two outcomes of the match result in a win of your bet. Take a look at the picture below. A Double Chance on Benevento win/draw pays 1.69. Just above that selection, you can place an Asian Handicap bet +0.5 on Benevento. That is the exact same bet, the bookies just call it differently. The AH +0.50 bet is valued at 1.76 compared to 1.69 for the exact same bet. If you place an AH +0.50 bet on Benevento and the match ends in a draw - you win. If Benevento wins - you win. If Benevento losses - you loss, same as with the Double Chance bet. The bookies often use these kind of tricks. Here is another one for different bets. A Draw No Bet means that if the team you bet on draws the match, your bet wont be lost. It will be voided, and you will get your stake money back. If the team you bet on wins, you also win your bet. In the screenshot you can see that a Genoa Draw No Bet has an odd of 1.88. A few lines above, you can play an 0 Asian handicap on Genoa, which is the same type of bet, but the odds are slightly higher. 1.93 compared to 1.88. If the AH 0 match ends in a draw - you bet is voided. If your team wins - you win, and you lose your money of course if the opposition wins. I have seen other types betting options that bookies use where you can bet on the same outcome, they just call it differently and offer higher-lower odds. Share your own examples of what you have discovered on different platforms while gambling on sports. Thank you for this information. I commend you for putting an image for those visual learners out there lurking around the forum. This would be of great help most especially to those who are unaware about this. Based on my observation, double chance has the higher probability of winning because you can place your bet on two different possible winning results. This appears to be a game of chances but with the greater odds of winning. Although this is still harder compared to the usual traditional and straight betting alone because of multiple choices. But the opportunity could be utilized anyway. I believe this type is something that is still in favor of the house because this just urges the players to bet more for hopes of higher chances of winning. Spending more bucks in exchange for trying to win the bet is what most people do, most especially those who are obsessed in winning. Little did they know that collectively, they are doing the house a favor for playing in accordance to what they predicted. But it's still the players discretion anyway, it's their money at the end of the day.
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Pmalek (OP)
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November 13, 2021, 10:30:06 PM |
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Based on my observation, double chance has the higher probability of winning because you can place your bet on two different possible winning results. Correct. A football match can end in three different ways. A double-chance bet covers two possible outcomes. This appears to be a game of chances but with the greater odds of winning. Although this is still harder compared to the usual traditional and straight betting alone because of multiple choices. I don't follow the logic to be honest. The 1X double-chance bet, for example, is a winning one if the match ends with a home win but also with a draw. If you aren't sure that the home team will win, you increase your chances by betting on the draw as well with greatly lower payouts. It can only help you and can't make it harder. Spending more bucks in exchange for trying to win the bet is what most people do, most especially those who are obsessed in winning. A greater chance to win equals to lower odds. To compensate for that, many will increase their stake, so you are right about that.
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KTChampions
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November 14, 2021, 09:11:54 AM |
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I wonder if it is really possible to find such anomalies (within the same bookmaker) on the basis of which it is possible to place bets where the player has an advantage? I know that such situations arise if you analyze different bookmakers, but within one it is hardly realistic, since the anomalies are much lower than the margin.
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Fortify
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November 14, 2021, 09:50:33 AM |
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yeah, Asian Handicap offers better odds than DB, i guess it has to do with the higher vig in Double Chance and DNB. But here's another example of this "phenomenon" (from Fortunejack)First one is Double Chance (Home Win or Away Win), second one is the exact same thing but with a different name Would like to know if this happens in other sports like basketball, hockey, NFL, etc It's definitely interesting to see so many examples of this going on and I would have expected these to be much closer. It makes me think there is room for arbitrage if you have an automated system that is able to spot and instantly take advantage of such mispricing. If you're able to identify these over a long term then it will narrow the margin of profit that the house is able to take from you and that little buffer could be the difference between being a winner or loser. I suspect that football is much more open to this type because it has many more people watching it around the world and the other sports you mentioned have much smaller followings in comparison.
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Pmalek (OP)
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November 14, 2021, 06:48:42 PM |
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I wonder if it is really possible to find such anomalies (within the same bookmaker) on the basis of which it is possible to place bets where the player has an advantage? All the examples I posted show odds for different markets from the same bookmaker. Right now as I am writing this, I am looking at the Luxembourg - Rep. of Ireland football match and the -0.5 AH on Ireland is 1.97. At the same time the full-time market odds for an away win on Ireland is 2.06. As you can see, that's quite a difference.
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tomahawk9
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November 14, 2021, 10:52:28 PM |
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It makes me think there is room for arbitrage if you have an automated system that is able to spot and instantly take advantage of such mispricing. If you're able to identify these over a long term then it will narrow the margin of profit that the house is able to take from you and that little buffer could be the difference between being a winner or loser. Most of the time long term strategies that guarantee you profits don't work in this space since 99% you'll get limited once the bookie realizes that you're a winner (books dont like winners) or that your account is showing signs (like stake amounts or betting patterns) of arbing. Plus, arbitrage takes a lot of effort, time and resources nowadays since bookmakers are one step ahead of you and yours bots/system all the time so i wouldn't recommend it, tbqh
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KTChampions
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November 16, 2021, 09:09:35 PM |
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I wonder if it is really possible to find such anomalies (within the same bookmaker) on the basis of which it is possible to place bets where the player has an advantage? All the examples I posted show odds for different markets from the same bookmaker. Right now as I am writing this, I am looking at the Luxembourg - Rep. of Ireland football match and the -0.5 AH on Ireland is 1.97. At the same time the full-time market odds for an away win on Ireland is 2.06. As you can see, that's quite a difference. This is a small difference, if converted to percentages, it would be about 2.2%. Usually the bookmaker's margin is 4-6%, so even if we found a way to improve the odds by 2.2 percent, we are still losing to the bookmaker. I think a significant difference will be at least 5 percent, but I doubt that such cases (at least if we consider one bookmaker) happen (well, or let's say they happen regularly).
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