Could 2018 repeat itself? Price approaching 20K and high fees followed by crash

[Lanatsa]

I want to know if there is a connection between people paying less fees and the price going down.

I believe that theres no correlation between fees and the price is going down.We know that fees cant  really be mandated if miners would really be imposing a specific sats/byte value.

yet this one will always vary on the market condition and this isn't on miners control btw yet fees do clinged up when people do tend to make it higher due to they want for their

transaction to be pushed fast and as normal thinking where miners would really be prioritizing to those who set much higher fees.Talking about 2018 repeat then no one really knows yet
no man can know on whats the future.

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

I would consider 2018 and 2020 as two different era just like the 2014 and 2018. In 2014 people realized they shouldn't trust exchanges with their money with the major Mt.Gox hack and in 2018, investors and traders realized bitcoin, xmr and eth were the only legit cryptos which can stay even during a hard crash. 2017 had a huge influx of newbies and they became rich and sold out the btc and moved away. What if this was experienced in a large scale? This was how the dump occurred back in 2018. Now, the market has matured a lot and many old era newbies (who entered the market in 2017 and 2018) can understand the difference between shitcoin and bitcoin and can do really good investments.

Regarding the huge fees debate, segwit was announced only on August 2017 and only far less people were using segiwit addresses. But now fast forwarding to 2020, majority of the exchanges, services and bitcoiners have moved onto to segwit related addresses but still we are experiencing scaling issues because of huge congestion in the network. This can probably be minimized to some extent with the activation of Schnorr Signatures. Other than this, we might see more bitcoiners switching over to Lightning Network and other side chains which are yet to be announced for scaling bitcoin.

I believe these factors will prevent bitcoin on attaining another major dump or going back to $3-5k level again!

I'm curious to know just how badly exchanges are clogging the network. Are they sending high valued transactions, which implies they have enormous number of bytes? I'm guessing several of these at once make the task of inserting them into blocks take longer for miners.

Might be true. With more and more newbies entering the market and lot more transactions going on inbetween the exchanges, there should be a withdrawal limit set by the exchanges as like the banks to prevent clogging up the network more badly.

[wxa7115]

Although the situation seems pretty much the same like in 2017 and 2018 circumstances are quite different. Although the price is on the rise we are still far away from 20k. Yes, the transaction fees are increasing too but to my opinion that is mainly due to price increase itself and the enlarged number of transactions.
I'm not saying that 20k is impossible but still it's s very lomg road to go.

The main problem that we will have in order to reach a new ATH will be that many traders will think ahead and know that surpassing that level at the first opportunity we have after 3 years is going to be very unlikely so they are going to sell close or at that level creating a strong reduction on the price, so I think we are going to see a very fierce battle between the bears and the bulls for the control of the market.

It seems to me there is enough strength on the market to go above the previous ATH since the growth that we have been experimenting has been very slow which means there is a lot of support and once we breakthrough the 20k level all bets will be off about how high the price can go.

[stomachgrowls]

Although the situation seems pretty much the same like in 2017 and 2018 circumstances are quite different. Although the price is on the rise we are still far away from 20k. Yes, the transaction fees are increasing too but to my opinion that is mainly due to price increase itself and the enlarged number of transactions.
I'm not saying that 20k is impossible but still it's s very lomg road to go.

The main problem that we will have in order to reach a new ATH will be that many traders will think ahead and know that surpassing that level at the first opportunity we have after 3 years is going to be very unlikely so they are going to sell close or at that level creating a strong reduction on the price, so I think we are going to see a very fierce battle between the bears and the bulls for the control of the market.

It seems to me there is enough strength on the market to go above the previous ATH since the growth that we have been experimenting has been very slow which means there is a lot of support and once we breakthrough the 20k level all bets will be off about how high the price can go.

I highly believe that to those people who had bought wayback in peak price or ATH had already long time sell off their bags to believe that we wont be seeing another chance to hit that level again

but it seems those people had already made out some mistake.Yeah, it did take a while yet its been 3 years after that event where we do able to hit the peak and now we are gradually reaching it once again.

Good thing for those who held for that long and sorry for those who sell on loss.

[Twinkledoe]

Although the situation seems pretty much the same like in 2017 and 2018 circumstances are quite different. Although the price is on the rise we are still far away from 20k. Yes, the transaction fees are increasing too but to my opinion that is mainly due to price increase itself and the enlarged number of transactions.
I'm not saying that 20k is impossible but still it's s very lomg road to go.

The main problem that we will have in order to reach a new ATH will be that many traders will think ahead and know that surpassing that level at the first opportunity we have after 3 years is going to be very unlikely so they are going to sell close or at that level creating a strong reduction on the price, so I think we are going to see a very fierce battle between the bears and the bulls for the control of the market.

It seems to me there is enough strength on the market to go above the previous ATH since the growth that we have been experimenting has been very slow which means there is a lot of support and once we breakthrough the 20k level all bets will be off about how high the price can go.

I highly believe that to those people who had bought wayback in peak price or ATH had already long time sell off their bags to believe that we wont be seeing another chance to hit that level again

but it seems those people had already made out some mistake.Yeah, it did take a while yet its been 3 years after that event where we do able to hit the peak and now we are gradually reaching it once again.

Good thing for those who held for that long and sorry for those who sell on loss.

I believe also that most of those who bought at ATH way back in 2017, already cashed out. Because most of them have no strong foundation in crypto, they just bought it because of the hype. But for those few that patiently waited, they are now seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. And this time, the rise is not owed to fud or hype, but real adoption among users, companies and institutions.

[Fortify]

Of course it is only speculation, but I'm not quite sure there will be a crash this time. You might see small dips, but a few recent announcements are actually extremely favourable to Bitcoin and could see it continue to steadily grow in value. Lots more hedge funds and money managers are starting to take it seriously - they control huge amounts of money which their clients will now be more happy to see invested in Bitcoin. The currency has been around for over ten years now, which is also giving it more weight and with the Paypal announcement (even if it is a weak form of ownership) there is very likely to be even more uptake from retail investors. Unless something drastic happens (and I'm struggling to think of good reasons), then there should not be a mass exodus like we saw with the last crash.

[LUCKMCFLY]

The bullish scenario that can reach $ 20k if it is very possible, as the market can sometimes repeat events.

It should be noted that we are approaching December, and December is a month where the price of Bitcoin is usually very likely to rise, there is more demand, that is, people trade more and use bitcoin a lot, which, is good, if there is more demand, the supply decreases and the price increases. It's a great opportunity, the best for now is hodl.

On the other hand, when this happens, it is logical that the Bitcoin rates increase, if transfers are made with little fee it would take a long time for the transaction to arrive, some people have waited weeks for the transaction to be completed, I think the best thing is to do the transaction with a normal fee.

[barbara44]

Last time we crashed wasn't because of transaction fee's only, it was also because we had no reason left to buy bitcoin and that meant people got out and the more people got out meant more price went down as well. So, at the end of the day, we are not anywhere near 2018 and we are building something totally different.

The reason why 2017 peak happened was because BCH was created that summer which promised people free money if they got BCH, and that meant everyone and their grandmother bought bitcoin in order to get free BCH, at the time price was around 1k dollars and what was promised was around 200 dollars, obviously everyone bought and made it over 3k by that time and that momentum just kept growing. This time around it is organic and nothing related to one news.

[BITCOIN4X]

The bullish scenario that can reach $ 20k if it is very possible, as the market can sometimes repeat events.

It should be noted that we are approaching December, and December is a month where the price of Bitcoin is usually very likely to rise, there is more demand, that is, people trade more and use bitcoin a lot, which, is good, if there is more demand, the supply decreases and the price increases. It's a great opportunity, the best for now is hodl.

On the other hand, when this happens, it is logical that the Bitcoin rates increase, if transfers are made with little fee it would take a long time for the transaction to arrive, some people have waited weeks for the transaction to be completed, I think the best thing is to do the transaction with a normal fee.

Repetition of event can still occur and it is not impossible. But it all depend on how much people are willing to buy bitcoin in the market because increasing demand is a sign that the price will go up. December 2017 many investor and newcomer entered the crypto world where they brought several suitcases filled with fresh money to invest. But slowly these people stepped back and began to fortify themselves from greed and manage better strategies such as being less affected by ICO and IEO project.

We all don't know what will happen to bitcoin in the future, but I really believe that the increased adoption and also investor confidence in bitcoin will go a long way toward increasing its price. Let's hope that price volatility will continue to provide benefit for those who are good at it because on the other hand volatility can also cause losses for them.

[DoublerHunter]

~snip~
We all don't know what will happen to bitcoin in the future, but I really believe that the increased adoption and also investor confidence in bitcoin will go a long way toward increasing its price. Let's hope that price volatility will continue to provide benefit for those who are good at it because on the other hand volatility can also cause losses for them.

^ Technically, I also believed what I am quoted above. It possible that bitcoin will repeat or grow up beyond what we expected, if we look into a different angle, bitcoin adoption was a great help. Through the different good news that we heard this year, bitcoin has increased the price and I think that event will happen again and again. Nevertheless, when it comes to fees I am surprised yesterday that the fees are very low even though it is not yet weekend. As we observed the bitcoin fee will low when the weekend comes but last week, it shows stay low for the whole week. Probably that is the sign of having massive adoption.

[romero121]

Although the situation seems pretty much the same like in 2017 and 2018 circumstances are quite different. Although the price is on the rise we are still far away from 20k. Yes, the transaction fees are increasing too but to my opinion that is mainly due to price increase itself and the enlarged number of transactions.
I'm not saying that 20k is impossible but still it's s very lomg road to go.

The main problem that we will have in order to reach a new ATH will be that many traders will think ahead and know that surpassing that level at the first opportunity we have after 3 years is going to be very unlikely so they are going to sell close or at that level creating a strong reduction on the price, so I think we are going to see a very fierce battle between the bears and the bulls for the control of the market.

It seems to me there is enough strength on the market to go above the previous ATH since the growth that we have been experimenting has been very slow which means there is a lot of support and once we breakthrough the 20k level all bets will be off about how high the price can go.

I highly believe that to those people who had bought wayback in peak price or ATH had already long time sell off their bags to believe that we wont be seeing another chance to hit that level again

but it seems those people had already made out some mistake.Yeah, it did take a while yet its been 3 years after that event where we do able to hit the peak and now we are gradually reaching it once again.

Good thing for those who held for that long and sorry for those who sell on loss.

I believe also that most of those who bought at ATH way back in 2017, already cashed out. Because most of them have no strong foundation in crypto, they just bought it because of the hype. But for those few that patiently waited, they are now seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. And this time, the rise is not owed to fud or hype, but real adoption among users, companies and institutions.

The previous bull market took place as a wave, because the growth happened all of the sudden in an unexpected moment. By the time people are into hard discussion about the price reaching $8000 & $10000. The price crossed $8000, then $10000 and keeps moving. Around $15000 it gained stability. Looking upon the growth more inflow of money happened and the same kept the market in pumping. This caused the price to cross $20000 and crash.

This time the growth is happening in a steady manner without much of major crash in between. Today the market has crashed down to $16000, and this looks there is lack of stability above $16000.

[BITCOIN4X]

~snip
Probably that is the sign of having massive adoption.

I don't know if the low fee can be seen as evidence that adoption has increased. However, in my opinion, this low fee is due to the network condition that is not full of transaction and the market is in a sideways state. It is seen that when the bitcoin price is bullish happen suddenly, the fee will increase and will increase if the public continues to want transaction to be processed quickly.

[buwaytress]

I don't know if the low fee can be seen as evidence that adoption has increased. However, in my opinion, this low fee is due to the network condition that is not full of transaction and the market is in a sideways state. It is seen that when the bitcoin price is bullish happen suddenly, the fee will increase and will increase if the public continues to want transaction to be processed quickly.

Fees have nothing to do with it, I'd say, at least not when looking at such tiny samples. You could still have empty blocks and high fees of people decided they didn't want to adjust and just pay a lot of fees (and we've seen periods like that). Or you could have full blocks and low fees, with most people opting to go 2nd layer and that's a whole lot of adoption figures out of the equation.

[Gozie51]

Last time we crashed wasn't because of transaction fee's only, it was also because we had no reason left to buy bitcoin and that meant people got out and the more people got out meant more price went down as well. So, at the end of the day, we are not anywhere near 2018 and we are building something totally different.

What I'm thinking is that the same thing can repeat itself again this time but maybe not too deep like 2018. In December 2017, when it was ATH, yes many felt it has sailed the highest that season and being the end of the year , the fear engulfed many to cash out. And that made price begin to drop slowly.
This time also, there are many reason that price can still crash. This year is much of fear factor of bad economy because of covid-19 and now price gets higher than expectation. So almost the same scene in 2017/18 , the difference however is halving year in 2020.

[BrewMaster]

I don't know if the low fee can be seen as evidence that adoption has increased. However, in my opinion, this low fee is due to the network condition that is not full of transaction and the market is in a sideways state. It is seen that when the bitcoin price is bullish happen suddenly, the fee will increase and will increase if the public continues to want transaction to be processed quickly.

Fees have nothing to do with it, I'd say, at least not when looking at such tiny samples. You could still have empty blocks and high fees of people decided they didn't want to adjust and just pay a lot of fees (and we've seen periods like that). Or you could have full blocks and low fees, with most people opting to go 2nd layer and that's a whole lot of adoption figures out of the equation.

having low fees is an indication of low usage which in turn can be an indication of low adoption or lack of mass adoption. otherwise if we had more adoption of bitcoin then obviously more people would be using bitcoin (sending more transactions) so the network would be more congested and fees keep rising up.

[error08]

I want to know if there is a connection between people paying less fees and the price going down.

This is what I think happens. During a strong bull market or bubble, potential BTC and altcoin gains are in the 100s and 1,000s % range. Speculators don't care one bit about transaction fees. So speculators withdrawing from exchanges (and exchanges intent on guaranteeing fast withdrawals) drives network fees up exponentially.

When bitcoin on the rally, the price is driven by 'supply and demand' in the exchanges. At that time, people tend to send bitcoin to exchanges, not the other way around. Because of the fear of missing out and to avoid long time confirmation, people decide to pay higher fees, the next person pays an even higher fee, it creates a snowball effect which causes the fees to go up out of control.

[buwaytress]

Fees have nothing to do with it, I'd say, at least not when looking at such tiny samples. You could still have empty blocks and high fees of people decided they didn't want to adjust and just pay a lot of fees (and we've seen periods like that). Or you could have full blocks and low fees, with most people opting to go 2nd layer and that's a whole lot of adoption figures out of the equation.

having low fees is an indication of low usage which in turn can be an indication of low adoption or lack of mass adoption. otherwise if we had more adoption of bitcoin then obviously more people would be using bitcoin (sending more transactions) so the network would be more congested and fees keep rising up.

Not disagreeing, but again sample sizes matter and other pertinent data is more important to indicate utility. # of txs per block to me is still the major one, plus how full those blocks are, plus the number of inputs (as more people do batch) and volume in channels for LN.

Fundamentals have been increasing, in that sense adoption has as well in # of users and frequency of tx and volume -- while average fees have been decreasing thanks to efficiencies and upgrades. Spike of fees isn't because of adoption but increased demand in those smaller periods I think.

[jseverson]

The previous bull market took place as a wave, because the growth happened all of the sudden in an unexpected moment. By the time people are into hard discussion about the price reaching $8000 & $10000. The price crossed $8000, then $10000 and keeps moving. Around $15000 it gained stability. Looking upon the growth more inflow of money happened and the same kept the market in pumping. This caused the price to cross $20000 and crash.

I mostly have the same position. I'm not expecting a major crash this time around because apart from Bitcoin transcending all the bubble talk that plagued the 2017 run, we actually have transparent institutional support this time around; people are much less likely to panic sell if they're seeing big brands like Paypal get in on the fun. If the fees had anything at all to do with the crash, I imagine it had more to do with people's transactions getting stuck, feeding more fear to the bubble anxiety, than fees actually getting more expensive.

I'm actually a bit surprised that growth has been as explosive as it has, but it certainly feels a lot more sustainable than 2017's.

[Oasisman]

~snip~

I'm actually a bit surprised that growth has been as explosive as it has, but it certainly feels a lot more sustainable than 2017's.

It does feel like it. Though Btc has been experiencing a short pull back a couple of times which I think It would gradually getting worse, but no it didn't, instead Btc continued to show strong signs of a consistent upward movements.
Seeing a several big names and other institutional investors coming in to the crypto market does feel like we're breaking a new ATH anytime sooner.

[exstasie]

I'm not expecting a major crash this time around because apart from Bitcoin transcending all the bubble talk that plagued the 2017 run, we actually have transparent institutional support this time around; people are much less likely to panic sell if they're seeing big brands like Paypal get in on the fun.

Panic selling is not just characteristic of Bitcoin. After gold's exponential rise into 2011, it crashed 46%. You think gold lacks institutional support?

That's simply what happens after an exponential and speculative rise. In my experience, the faster and further an asset rises, the harder the subsequent fall usually is.

I'm actually a bit surprised that growth has been as explosive as it has, but it certainly feels a lot more sustainable than 2017's.

I wouldn't mind seeing things slow down a little. It reminds me a bit of the 2019 rally......which went too far, too fast. A nice steady rise into the previous ATH, similar to 2016, would be nice.