Bet PrimeNumber7 vs. DaveF

[DaveF]

As per suchmoon I moved this to it's own thread.
A few mods to what you posted

1) Set the date to the 21st which is the day after the inauguration, technically it's not official till the swearing in ceremony on the 20th sometime.

2) We agree President to mean President that has been sworn in as President of the USA, not that they just declare themselves president or Trump still being president of Trump property development.

3) Self mod thread. More or less I post this, you agree or we go back and forth in public with the rules till we both agree then it's locked away till January, plenty of places to discuss it elsewhere.

I would be willing to bet you BTC0.001875 to win BTC0.015* with the following terms:
If Trump is President as of 12:01 PM Jan 21, 2021(one minute after his first term ends), I win the bet
If Biden is President as of 12:01 PM, Jan 21, 2021, you win the bet
If anyone else is President as of 12:01 PM, Jan 21, 2021, the bet is a draw
If Biden or Trump concedes, the bet is payable to the other party, however, the bet will not be final until 12:01 PM, Jan 20, 2021. This allows one party to concede, and end up becoming president (for example if they won a court case)

*for clarification, I am risking BTC0.001875 and you are risking BTC0.015

The logic behind the above terms is that Trump's legal strategy is not necessarily to win 270 electoral votes, it is to deny Biden from getting 270 votes. If the electoral college meets and there is no winner (neither candidate receives 270 votes), congress votes on the next president, with each state getting one vote.

The above offer will expire 24 hours from the date of this post if it has not been accepted.

[PrimeNumber7]

1 - Agreed. I understand the threshold I proposed was when the next president becomes president, however I have no problem waiting an extra day.
2 - I would agree that the term “President” means the ‘President of the United States’ whose authority is vested by the constitution. If for some reason a swearing in/inauguration does not occur, for example because of violence, War, the pandemic, or any other reason, whoever is President per the constitution will determine the winner. Trump declaring himself President while not being President would be hilarious, but would be insufficient to determine the winner.

If there is ambiguity as to who is President as per the constitution, we can rely on Supreme Court cases/rulings. I don’t anticipate who the President is to be disputed in late January.

I also promise and agree to act in good faith and have every reason to believe you will do the same.

[DaveF]

Agreed. See this thread again 22 Jan 2021
-Dave

[DaveF]

So PrimeNumber7 paid early.

I sent the entire amount to the RedCross:



With everything else going on at the moment, lets not forget everyone else out there.

https://bitpay.com/520663/donate

Not going to get into the "This Charity Is Better Then The Red Cross" or "These people need it more" debate.
or "Donate to places that don't use BitPay" discussion.

I gave to them, please give to whoever you want, but give if you can.

-Dave

[PrimeNumber7]

So PrimeNumber7 paid early.

First, it was a pleasure working with you.

I paid early because I don’t see any realistic path for Trump to be president in 2021, and I think that Trump should acknowledge that Biden will be president (legitimate or otherwise) next year, and he can start his next Presidential campaign if he do chooses.

For the good of the country.

[squatz1]

So PrimeNumber7 paid early.

First, it was a pleasure working with you.

I paid early because I don’t see any realistic path for Trump to be president in 2021, and I think that Trump should acknowledge that Biden will be president (legitimate or otherwise) next year, and he can start his next Presidential campaign if he do chooses.

For the good of the country.

Why do that when you can just raise $200+M off of a totally bullshit cause and continue to maintain the grip of the party around yourself?

Highly doubt that Trump is going to concede normally, his twitter has been too crazy recently. He's told too much of the party that this is a scam and they fully believe him, around 70% of the GOP thinks there was election fraud.

Hopefully for the good of the country he does concede, because it is over.

[PrimeNumber7]

So PrimeNumber7 paid early.

First, it was a pleasure working with you.

I paid early because I don’t see any realistic path for Trump to be president in 2021, and I think that Trump should acknowledge that Biden will be president (legitimate or otherwise) next year, and he can start his next Presidential campaign if he do chooses.

For the good of the country.

Why do that when you can just raise $200+M off of a totally bullshit cause and continue to maintain the grip of the party around yourself?

Highly doubt that Trump is going to concede normally, his twitter has been too crazy recently. He's told too much of the party that this is a scam and they fully believe him, around 70% of the GOP thinks there was election fraud.

Hopefully for the good of the country he does concede, because it is over.

Having a $200mm + war chest before he even leaves office gives him a huge advantage in the 2024 general election, and I doubt he will have serious competition in the primaries if he decides to run.

I didn't say that Trump should concede the election, I said he should acknowledge that Biden will be the next president. There were irregularities in multiple states, voting rules were changed without the state legislatures (despite the constitution requiring that state legislatures set voting rules), and rules were applied unevenly. This was why I made this bet with DaveF, as I thought that Trump had a pretty solid argument.

I think Trump's strategy was to make outlandish claims via proxies (Sydney Powell, and Rudy Giuliani) in order to get republican controlled state legislatures to send republican electoral college voters to the EC despite the results showing that Biden won their state's election. I think the problem was that the claims were too outlandish, and were not supported by facts. Trump's legal team never made a serious effort into having the courts address what I believe were serious deficiencies in the election. I think Trump was afraid the SC would be hesitant to throw out a deficient Presidential election on fairly minor issues, even though they were large enough to swing the election in Biden's favor.

[squatz1]

So PrimeNumber7 paid early.

First, it was a pleasure working with you.

I paid early because I don’t see any realistic path for Trump to be president in 2021, and I think that Trump should acknowledge that Biden will be president (legitimate or otherwise) next year, and he can start his next Presidential campaign if he do chooses.

For the good of the country.

Why do that when you can just raise $200+M off of a totally bullshit cause and continue to maintain the grip of the party around yourself?

Highly doubt that Trump is going to concede normally, his twitter has been too crazy recently. He's told too much of the party that this is a scam and they fully believe him, around 70% of the GOP thinks there was election fraud.

Hopefully for the good of the country he does concede, because it is over.

Having a $200mm + war chest before he even leaves office gives him a huge advantage in the 2024 general election, and I doubt he will have serious competition in the primaries if he decides to run.

I didn't say that Trump should concede the election, I said he should acknowledge that Biden will be the next president. There were irregularities in multiple states, voting rules were changed without the state legislatures (despite the constitution requiring that state legislatures set voting rules), and rules were applied unevenly. This was why I made this bet with DaveF, as I thought that Trump had a pretty solid argument.

I think Trump's strategy was to make outlandish claims via proxies (Sydney Powell, and Rudy Giuliani) in order to get republican controlled state legislatures to send republican electoral college voters to the EC despite the results showing that Biden won their state's election. I think the problem was that the claims were too outlandish, and were not supported by facts. Trump's legal team never made a serious effort into having the courts address what I believe were serious deficiencies in the election. I think Trump was afraid the SC would be hesitant to throw out a deficient Presidential election on fairly minor issues, even though they were large enough to swing the election in Biden's favor.

Highly doubt he'll be running in 2024. He is going to use that money to pay off campaign debts, as the campaign used a ton of money -- like many do -- and then use the rest of it for his Leadership PAC. These PAC's have a lot of free reign in regards to what he can do with it. He could finance a bid in 2024 with it, though I highly doubt be runs again.

Guy now has 200M that can dangle around the Republican party as a way to ensure that they keep him insulated from litigation from the incoming administration and to keep defending him fron NY state / other state charges.

If Trump's claims had held some amount of real evidence, that would really be something. Though that's just not the case. Claims were garbage though Republican voters are gobbling it up.

I'm curious to see how public Trump is once Biden takes office.

[suchmoon]

Highly doubt he'll be running in 2024. He is going to use that money to pay off campaign debts, as the campaign used a ton of money -- like many do -- and then use the rest of it for his Leadership PAC. These PAC's have a lot of free reign in regards to what he can do with it. He could finance a bid in 2024 with it, though I highly doubt be runs again.

He can pretend to run and funnel that money to Mar-a-Lago while he sits there tweeting.

[squatz1]

Highly doubt he'll be running in 2024. He is going to use that money to pay off campaign debts, as the campaign used a ton of money -- like many do -- and then use the rest of it for his Leadership PAC. These PAC's have a lot of free reign in regards to what he can do with it. He could finance a bid in 2024 with it, though I highly doubt be runs again.

He can pretend to run and funnel that money to Mar-a-Lago while he sits there tweeting.

Funny you say that, that's actually something that Business Insider was exploring -- not directly going to the Mar A Lago, but if the money can go to friends/family members.

Answer: Yes. The money can go to friends / family / himself (businesses) -

https://www.businessinsider.com/donations-trump-leadership-pac-pay-family-finance-2024-presidential-bid-2020-11

Highly doubt the people that are donating money to this even know that this is the case, but that's politics, eh?

[PrimeNumber7]

Highly doubt he'll be running in 2024. He is going to use that money to pay off campaign debts, as the campaign used a ton of money -- like many do -- and then use the rest of it for his Leadership PAC. These PAC's have a lot of free reign in regards to what he can do with it. He could finance a bid in 2024 with it, though I highly doubt be runs again.

Guy now has 200M that can dangle around the Republican party as a way to ensure that they keep him insulated from litigation from the incoming administration and to keep defending him fron NY state / other state charges.

If Trump's claims had held some amount of real evidence, that would really be something. Though that's just not the case. Claims were garbage though Republican voters are gobbling it up.

I'm curious to see how public Trump is once Biden takes office.

I doubt that the Trump campaign has that much debt. I also understand that a candidate is not personally responsible for any debt that their campaign incurs.

Some of the $200MM Trump has raised since the election has gone into his leadership PAC, and I do not doubt that this is a substantial amount, however, I also understand that Trump personally put hundreds of millions of his own dollars into getting elected in 2016 and that he entered office being a multimillionaire. If Trump wanted to exert influence on the Republican party with a lot of money, he already has the means of doing so.

I would not be surprised to see Trump hold rallies throughout the Biden/Harris Presidency, and he will probably campaign for Republicans in the 2022 midterms, who are expected to retake the House, which Trump will take credit for.

I do think that Trump had legitimate concerns about the 2020 election, but I don't think his legal team was very serious.

[vapourminer]

I would not be surprised to see Trump hold rallies throughout the Biden/Harris Presidency, and he will probably campaign for Republicans in the 2022 midterms, who are expected to retake the House, which Trump will take credit for.

somehow i cant see trump campaigning for anyone but himself. his massive ego wont allow it. he will go to the grave mumbling about his "stolen" election. its the only thought left in what passes for his brain.

imo of course. politics isnt my gig but it seems everyone got sucked into it cuz of trumps ego.

as for the money he raised.. correct me if im wrong but cant he use the bulk of that (75%) for anything he wants regardless if its for political proposes or to buy more orange paint.

edit if this is off topic apologies, lemme know and ill delete it.

[DaveF]

I would not be surprised to see Trump hold rallies throughout the Biden/Harris Presidency, and he will probably campaign for Republicans in the 2022 midterms, who are expected to retake the House, which Trump will take credit for.

somehow i cant see trump campaigning for anyone but himself. his massive ego wont allow it. he will go to the grave mumbling about his "stolen" election. its the only thought left in what passes for his brain.

imo of course. politics isnt my gig but it seems everyone got sucked into it cuz of trumps ego.

as for the money he raised.. correct me if im wrong but cant he use the bulk of that (75%) for anything he wants regardless if its for political proposes or to buy more orange paint.

edit if this is off topic apologies, lemme know and ill delete it.

Well, just about everything after me saying PN7 paid me and his response is OT.
It's why I locked this thread in the beginning when we 1st agreed to the bet. There are other threads here in Politics & Society going over the same stuff.
At this point I am going to leave it open for others to use but not get involved here. Since it is a moderated thread I can in theory censor posts so I'll let everyone else run with it.

-Dave