[Chart] Bitcoin dominance due for a pull-back?

[dragonvslinux]

We've seen Bitcoin dominance bounce back from 57% to 66% in recent weeks after being "oversold" in September (Altcoins overbought) during the DeFi craze.

I'm waiting to see the outcome of the current downwards sloping ressitance level that dominance has respected for over a year now, but otherwise expecting dominance to continuing moving lower towards 50% if there isn't a rebound to 70% and beyond. I'm mainly basing this off 2017 bull-market similarity.



Overall, despite the short-term recovery in BTC dominance, the 200 Week MA is aggressively sloping downwards highlighting the long-term bear trend (even with the rise in the past two years). The 50 & 100 Week MAs are in conflict, the former is bearish moving dowards and the latter is bullish and continues to move higher.

Update:

Time to take some altcoin profit for the short-term, that 2x in XRP or XLM maybe? Dominance has wicked back down to 21 & 200 Week MA support. While the 21 Week MA is flat, as a reminder the 200 Week MA remains aggressively bearish. I'm anticipating a relief rally, dead cat bounce 2.0, back towards the the 50 Week MA and break-down level around 64%. This could coincide nicely with Bitcoin breaking $20K and having a subsequent pull-back, as investors & traders diversify further into altcoins.

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[GreatArkansas]

Good char, these past few days I started to look forward and closely on the Bitcoin dominance.
I am seeing that Bitcoin dominance got still a lot of room upside, especially when it bounced before at around 60%, that's why I got huge feelings we will see 70% first before some correction. Reaching 70% of Bitcoin dominance gonna be a significant key for Bitcoin and that's the time maybe we can see a new all-time-high.

[dragonvslinux]

Good char, these past few days I started to look forward and closely on the Bitcoin dominance.
I am seeing that Bitcoin dominance got still a lot of room upside, especially when it bounced before at around 60%, that's why I got huge feelings we will see 70% first before some correction. Reaching 70% of Bitcoin dominance gonna be a significant key for Bitcoin and that's the time maybe we can see a new all-time-high.

It's true, there's definitely room to move upwards that's for sure. The dominance chart has been overbought on a Daily time-frame (by RSI metric) but otherwise on the Weekly time-frame has plenty of room to go and currently remains in bullish territory. I also agree that 70% dominance could coincide with a price new all time high, it would make some sense.

[Bergluft]

Good char, these past few days I started to look forward and closely on the Bitcoin dominance.
I am seeing that Bitcoin dominance got still a lot of room upside, especially when it bounced before at around 60%, that's why I got huge feelings we will see 70% first before some correction. Reaching 70% of Bitcoin dominance gonna be a significant key for Bitcoin and that's the time maybe we can see a new all-time-high.

It's true, there's definitely room to move upwards that's for sure. The dominance chart has been overbought on a Daily time-frame (by RSI metric) but otherwise on the Weekly time-frame has plenty of room to go and currently remains in bullish territory. I also agree that 70% dominance could coincide with a price new all time high, it would make some sense.

The question is, how high will BTC go this time before people start reversing funds to altcoins again? There will be huge profits to be made in the latter. What is your take on how high the new ATH of BTC will be?

[dragonvslinux]

Good char, these past few days I started to look forward and closely on the Bitcoin dominance.
I am seeing that Bitcoin dominance got still a lot of room upside, especially when it bounced before at around 60%, that's why I got huge feelings we will see 70% first before some correction. Reaching 70% of Bitcoin dominance gonna be a significant key for Bitcoin and that's the time maybe we can see a new all-time-high.

It's true, there's definitely room to move upwards that's for sure. The dominance chart has been overbought on a Daily time-frame (by RSI metric) but otherwise on the Weekly time-frame has plenty of room to go and currently remains in bullish territory. I also agree that 70% dominance could coincide with a price new all time high, it would make some sense.

The question is, how high will BTC go this time before people start reversing funds to altcoins again? There will be huge profits to be made in the latter. What is your take on how high the new ATH of BTC will be?

Actually the question was whether Bitcoin dominance will rise further or continue to fall, which is somewhat independent of Bitcoin's price, but I'll answer your question anyway 

Technically, the answer so far is $14K. Once Bitcoin reached $14K, within a few months people starting to reverse their funds to altcoins again, as can be seen by the chart in the OP. The real question is, will this continue, is the current rise in Bitcoin dominance nothing more than 2016 style dead-cat-bounce after a considerable dump.

Here you see the mid-2016 drop in Bitcoin dominance, as Bitcoin began to gain price momentum. This reminds me a lot of this summer with the DeFi craze. Then you see Bitcoin's dominance grew until the end of the year before the alt-season in 2017 really kicked off, where dominance fell to just 35% of the market.



The point is, technically the alt-season didn't start in 2017, it was mid-2016 prior to Bitcoin reaching a new ATH. 2017 is when the alt-season accelerated.

As for new ATH of Bitcoin in the nearish future? Somewhere between $100-200K, depending on when we get there based on log growth:

Looks fine.

[bitgolden]

That question mark explains a lot more to me than anything on that chart could ever explain.
Yes, you are right that there is a potential of bitcoin dominance withdrawal, we don't know if it will be because price of bitcoin will fall and dominance will fall with it, or maybe altcoins will go up a lot and dominance will fall because of that. We don't know which one is the real reason why bitcoin dominance could go down if it does end up going down.

But that question mark basically says "it should go down, but this is bitcoin so anything could happen and there is no guarantee" and that is where I am at. Yes, I do agree that it should go down but more often than not bitcoin doesn't do what it should and does something totally unexpected by all of us and surprises us.

[Coin_trader]

Looks like a scary doji out there in your chart. Actually a correction is immenent since Bitcoin was already overbought for over a week. Only moonbois will say that BTC will continue to reach 20k ATH price without a pullback on price. Next week might be the date we're correction happens since BTC dominance is very high which means most of the money on crypto is already on BTC, once bulls exhaust, I'm sure that everybody on the BTC boat will jump to take profit.

[drlukacs]

As you might have guessed, according to the weekly and monthly timeframe Bitcoin Dominance is still in downtrend, but I think it will soon rebound 70 percent and break it next year.  According to the chart I believe it will have a slight correction since it hit the bearish trendline, but it will be a uptick in altcoins, not a sell-off in Bitcoin.
it should behave pretty much like the moment the ICO becomes hype and the altcoins are bought with the crowd out of control.  so bull run will come soon, this is a good time to gather potential Altcoins and hold for about 1 year.

[SquallLeonhart]

I doubt that it would move anywhere drastic. Sure it could have a small pull-back but same logic I would say it could go up as well if altcoins have a crash, we can't really predict a crash before it happens otherwise we would have been quite wealthy if we could have known it beforehand. However with the likely outcome of pull-back, I would like to say that best case scenario here is around 63% at best, I do not see it going anything under that anytime soon.

It could potentially go to as low as 63% only because I can see ETH getting ETH 2.0 stamp of approval by launchpool and that impacting all of altcoin world. That could be the only reason that could suddenly change bitcoin dominance and even with that I don't think it would be like under 60% or anything like that.

[Febo]

We've seen Bitcoin dominance bounce back from 57% to 66% in recent weeks after being "oversold" in September (Altcoins overbought) during the DeFi craze.

I'm waiting to see the outcome of the current downwards sloping ressitance level that dominance has respected for over a year now, but otherwise expecting dominance to continuing moving lower towards 50% if there isn't a rebound to 70% and beyond. I'm mainly basing this off 2017 bull-market similarity.

Yup. Ass soon as will Bitcoin break $20000 and rally over it, Bitcoin dominance will go sub 50%. But it can take months until then. Bitcoin can now rally to $20000 and then bounce back even to $12000 and slowly go back up. But when price will go way over $20000 alts will start rallying.

[Stedsm]

The major reason behind BTC's dominance slippage is the rise in the values of DeFi tokens and that can't be ignored. They rise quickly, dump even more quickly and then again rise. Sure DeFi was not the reason alone, but there are more and more tokens being added on the list and marketcap is being updated for all of them which makes the entire marketcap of the alts to increase against BTC alone, so it's not a big deal when we see a slippage occuring there.

[poodle63]

Honestly I think dominances of bitcoin gonna hold about 55%-57% the news about paypal is so massive I think that's the main reason of bitcoin dominance bouncing to 66% and now it has dies down but 55% is where real bitcoin dominance is about to become.

a few days ago Bitcoin domination had a breakout to 66%,
and thank God it only hold a few hours and then failed, and now trying again to breakout again,
hopefully it will fail again, because if it manages to breakout then we will see a bloody Altcoin.

Break out doesn't necessarily mean bloody altcoin and if bitcoin dominance went down doesn't mean altcoin will go up. Although i'm not in favour if altcoin goes down but sometimes btc price rising is needed even an alt not moving its price to BTC like at all it's still getting profit from the price value in USD.

[Paycoinzzz]

Honestly I think dominances of bitcoin gonna hold about 55%-57% the news about paypal is so massive I think that's the main reason of bitcoin dominance bouncing to 66% and now it has dies down but 55% is where real bitcoin dominance is about to become.

a few days ago Bitcoin domination had a breakout to 66%,
and thank God it only hold a few hours and then failed, and now trying again to breakout again,
hopefully it will fail again, because if it manages to breakout then we will see a bloody Altcoin.

Break out doesn't necessarily mean bloody altcoin and if bitcoin dominance went down doesn't mean altcoin will go up. Although i'm not in favour if altcoin goes down but sometimes btc price rising is needed even an alt not moving its price to BTC like at all it's still getting profit from the price value in USD.

To me, 55% - 57% is still not enough for it to really dominate. Especially by the time Bitcoin Halving was just completed 5 months ago, this will be a reason for Bitcoin Dominance to go above 72% in the near future. I just hope that the altcoins don't bleed too much and that the top coins should follow in Bitcoin's footsteps instead of being sold off. this would be the perfect scenario for the Crypto market in 2021 when Bitcoin Dominance remains above 70%.

[dragonvslinux]

As a quick update for the day, dominance is against testing the long-term resistance trend-line the third time, again facing rejection with high volume:



There is however a bull-cross of the 50 & 200 Day MAs, signalling a bearish to bulish trend-change. This could indicate a pull-back to the level of 62.5% is the most likely outcome. Despite the bearish Weekly overview, on a Daily time-frame price finding support from a re-test of the 200 Day MA would be quite bullish in the mid-term, but yet to be seen either.

[Silberman]

Looks like a scary doji out there in your chart. Actually a correction is immenent since Bitcoin was already overbought for over a week. Only moonbois will say that BTC will continue to reach 20k ATH price without a pullback on price. Next week might be the date we're correction happens since BTC dominance is very high which means most of the money on crypto is already on BTC, once bulls exhaust, I'm sure that everybody on the BTC boat will jump to take profit.

Never forget that markets are irrational, even if you think the market cap and the price of bitcoin are due to suffer a correction this could not happen in weeks which is more than enough for bitcoin to reach a new all time high and to capture the imagination of the world once again, if that happens bitcoin could continue on this rally for months and anyone trying to predict the market to short it could lose all their capital, so it is better right now to just follow the trend and only get out of it until a clear sign of a reversal is given by the market.

[dragonvslinux]

The big red hammer of resistance appears to be playing it's part. The hammer has been moved up to the top of the wick (yes I know, cheating right?) but the concept remains the same. Dominance is at long-term resistance and is now facing rejection as well as uncertainty. Closing the week tomorrow below the resistance trend-line = very bearish and continuation of the year+ long bear trend, likely seeing dominance fall below 60% again. Here's what I referenced in Bitcoin TA thread regarding market dominance:

Looks like it's time for Bitcoin to correct or consolidate, as investors already begin to diversify into the altcoin market. Bitcoin dominance appears to be topping out on a TD Sequanital 9 Sell Signal on the Weekly chart, while being rejected by the volume point of control. In long-term bear markets (that dominance is currently in, based on it's bearish 200 Week MA), this is the expected outcome from the recent dead-cat bounce from <60% to 67%. This Weeks candle screams doji reversal to me:

Also to note, and as relevant as always regarding altcoin dominance, ETH/BTC is doing the opposite (as expected) by bouncing from a TD 9 Buy Signal:

Just to say ETH/BTC looks like great buying opportunity right now. Ignoring the obvious support trend-line that has been held, price is bouncing strong from the 50 & 100 Week MAs*. If ever you wanted an average ETH/BTC price in the past 1-2 years, then that was it basically. Also the double Weekly 9 Sell/Buy Signals appear very relevant right now (see arrows).

There's still a another day to go in the Weekly chart, but if the  Daily RSI's aggressive bearish divergence on the BTC dominance chart is anything to go by, it's going down:

[Cryptoababe]

Good chart analysis.. Probably there won't be much correction before 70% dominance. I've seen btc moving up unbelievable so far and I never expect too much correction.

[hd49728]

The big red hammer of resistance appears to be playing it's part. The hammer has been moved up to the top of the wick (yes I know, cheating right?) but the concept remains the same. Dominance is at long-term resistance and is now facing rejection as well as uncertainty. Closing the week tomorrow below the resistance trend-line = very bearish and continuation of the year+ long bear trend, likely seeing dominance fall below 60% again. Here's what I referenced in Bitcoin TA thread regarding market dominance

Dominance of bitcoin climbs and hits resistance and the fractals from the past would be taken into consideration. RSI, Dominance, and fractals combine together and I believe the correction will be massively and there will be blood on the market in next month. Blood days are used to celebrate new year on bitcoin market.

When blood appears on Bitcoin chart it will affect altcoin market and massacre will be seen. Massacre can be terrible with climb to all time high of bitcoin.

[ethereumhunter]

Good chart analysis.. Probably there won't be much correction before 70% dominance. I've seen btc moving up unbelievable so far and I never expect too much correction.

I guess that will not happen because I see that bitcoin price going strong again, and it seems many people are trying to buy bitcoin at the current price. If that can happen a few hours later, maybe the price will have the chance to increase back, and it will pull back the price to the high price. Maybe we will see $18,500 again this day or tomorrow, so you can try to place your order buy for a three-level price just in case if the price will go down for another correction.

[leea-1334]

Dominance of bitcoin climbs and hits resistance and the fractals from the past would be taken into consideration. RSI, Dominance, and fractals combine together and I believe the correction will be massively and there will be blood on the market in next month. Blood days are used to celebrate new year on bitcoin market.

When blood appears on Bitcoin chart it will affect altcoin market and massacre will be seen. Massacre can be terrible with climb to all time high of bitcoin.

Nice to see all the technical indicators coming together but yes,,, I think the market is heating up a bit too crazily right now so the correction that is for sure coming will be quite painful for a lot of people. I guess most smart traders are now taking profit while holders like us just do nothing and wait. Massacre, then bull run.