Poker Probability

[Lorence.xD]

Nah, what school are you enrolling for? Your tuition fee will be put to waste because your instructor or professor are having exact salary but are not doing their job. It actually not a good deal if I were you and your classmates should complain it to the proper protocol. And if you are doing gambling and that has been done in the classroom then hopefully you will not get caught.

Anyway, I can't blame you either playing poker is good actually and it could excite anyone who will going to play with it. There could be stress too especially when calling huge bet and you are holding good cards. Everything can happen and winnings could be possible depend on your luck.

It is a city sponsored so everything is free and it is a public school. I do not think that it was put to waste, forgot to mention that this all happened where we just need to complete our requirements so there isn't much to be done. We can't play real cards so we improvised and I do not want to divulge more about that, just trust me that we didn't get caught even though there is a hall monitor.

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[FontSeli]

These mind games are useless I guess when you are playing online poker but because I am not so good at poker and I hardly play but in real life I play these card games a lot.


Yeah frequently playing with the same players does help in understanding the behavior and nature of your opponent.

There are people at PokerStars who have been playing in major championships there for many years. Many of them have played with each other more than once. Professional players usually use various programs to collect statistics on their games, where they also record statistics on opponents. Therefore, they can also assume certain frequent actions from their opponents with whom they have already played.
Of course, it is much easier to read opponents at the same table, but some players manage to do it online too.

[KTChampions]

If you played poker in school it's not something you should be actually proud of. However, poker is game where you need certain skills and you are definitely forced to use your brains so it could be said that you've learned something from poker too.
I guess exactly because of fact that poker is skill game and players have the feeling of control makes it so popular.

By the way, the question about skill is very controversial in poker. Why do bookmakers accept bets on favorites with very small odds, and on underdogs with a large one in football? The answer is obvious. Now explain to me why there is nothing like this in the case of poker tournaments.

[Lorence.xD]

By the way, the question about skill is very controversial in poker. Why do bookmakers accept bets on favorites with very small odds, and on underdogs with a large one in football? The answer is obvious. Now explain to me why there is nothing like this in the case of poker tournaments.

I think that that comparison does not make sense. The skill mentioned in poker is the mental skills needed. Bookmakers can't do odds bet on poker because it is complicated and there are more players involved in the game to make a bet on odds that may look favorable to the player. At the very least in sports there is a 50/50 chance that you can win and bookies does not need that much effort, just slap odds and you're good to go.

[johhnyUA]

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5 % it's too high chance man

Are you laughing, Johnny? 5% is a high probability?

As i said, for poker combos it's enough high prob. For example, the closest probability to this is to get three of a kind. And to get such combo doesn't look something "beyond my imagination", it's often you can lose to such combo. So in your situation it was very likely to get such outcome.

[FontSeli]

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5 % it's too high chance man

Are you laughing, Johnny? 5% is a high probability?

As i said, for poker combos it's enough high prob. For example, the closest probability to this is to get three of a kind. And to get such combo doesn't look something "beyond my imagination", it's often you can lose to such combo. So in your situation it was very likely to get such outcome.

In poker there is a place for luck and you can lose quite often with a strong hand. I've seen many times how on three handouts of cards to the enemy fell all the necessary cards. Similarly, I was often lucky. However, even according to statistics 5% is a very small probability. Can you call the probability low only when it is 0%?

[johhnyUA]

I've seen many times how on three handouts of cards to the enemy fell all the necessary cards. Similarly, I was often lucky. However, even according to statistics 5% is a very small probability. Can you call the probability low only when it is 0%?

No, but i'' say in the third time: 5 % for Texas Holdem is enough high prob. That means that in average 1 of 20 every poker distribution you will get such combo. In your situation that means that 1 of 20 such situations (3 one suite card on table on River) the opponent will get two needed cards for flush. And if you will everytime go all in, this is the chance that your expected value of this 20 games will be negative (but here i'm not sure).

[FontSeli]

I've seen many times how on three handouts of cards to the enemy fell all the necessary cards. Similarly, I was often lucky. However, even according to statistics 5% is a very small probability. Can you call the probability low only when it is 0%?

No, but i'' say in the third time: 5 % for Texas Holdem is enough high prob. That means that in average 1 of 20 every poker distribution you will get such combo. In your situation that means that 1 of 20 such situations (3 one suite card on table on River) the opponent will get two needed cards for flush. And if you will everytime go all in, this is the chance that your expected value of this 20 games will be negative (but here i'm not sure).

Johhny is your own individual opinion. For me personally, the chance of 5% is small. You can ask other people. When there are 4 cards of the same suit on the River, then of course the chance that someone will have a missing card is extremely high, but when two cards of the same suit are missing, I consider this chance small and am not afraid to play against such cards.

[johhnyUA]

Johhny is your own individual opinion.

This is math and statistics, not my opinion. 
compared to other probabilities in poker this one is pretty high, so going "all in" it's not so wise decision. I think EV will be positive at least, but if you're playing in tournament and not for long distance, then it's as i said - not good decision.

[Globb0]

He is saying preserve your tournament life.

Which is definitely true.

Unfortunately its no so easy to distill things to a percentage odds.

Position, pot value, whos in or out and so many more variables.

Even knowing when to fold something amazing because of the "chance" the opponent has that killer hand you spotted.

[South Park]

If you played poker in school it's not something you should be actually proud of. However, poker is game where you need certain skills and you are definitely forced to use your brains so it could be said that you've learned something from poker too.
I guess exactly because of fact that poker is skill game and players have the feeling of control makes it so popular.

By the way, the question about skill is very controversial in poker. Why do bookmakers accept bets on favorites with very small odds, and on underdogs with a large one in football? The answer is obvious. Now explain to me why there is nothing like this in the case of poker tournaments.

I am not so sure I understand what you mean by this, why do you think that people with different skills should have different odds or something, in the case of poker we have the same odds of drawing the same cards regardless of your skill, it is your skill that determines whether you win money or you lose and as such the game should be even for everyone, in the case of sports the same logic applies, but when you as an spectator want to bet on the games since you are an outside spectator and not someone directly involved in the game casinos give different odds depending on the likelihood of an event happening, to me the system they employ makes perfect sense but if for you it does not then could you at least tell us what do you think will be a fair system under those circumstances?

[BuNga_cute]

For me who is used to playing slots and dice, when I first tried playing poker it seemed very complicated and took
a few days to understand. I admit that playing poker must have good mathematical skills, in order to increase the
chances of winning. But thank you for sharing information regarding poker probability, this is very informative for me.
I'm actually getting interested in playing poker now, after getting a little bored with dice and slots.

[KTChampions]

By the way, the question about skill is very controversial in poker. Why do bookmakers accept bets on favorites with very small odds, and on underdogs with a large one in football? The answer is obvious. Now explain to me why there is nothing like this in the case of poker tournaments.

I think that that comparison does not make sense. The skill mentioned in poker is the mental skills needed. Bookmakers can't do odds bet on poker because it is complicated and there are more players involved in the game to make a bet on odds that may look favorable to the player. At the very least in sports there is a 50/50 chance that you can win and bookies does not need that much effort, just slap odds and you're good to go.

I disagree with you) In sports, bookmakers accept bets on a huge variety of complex events, including long-distance ones (such as winning a tournament that lasts one season). If in poker there was a direct dependence on the ability to play (skill), then nothing would prevent bookmakers from accepting bets there, but this does not happen.

[FontSeli]

Johhny is your own individual opinion.

This is math and statistics, not my opinion. 
compared to other probabilities in poker this one is pretty high, so going "all in" it's not so wise decision. I think EV will be positive at least, but if you're playing in tournament and not for long distance, then it's as i said - not good decision.

Compared to what other probabilities? With a piano flash? Which have 0.001 probabilities? In poker without risk not to win and if I have a 95% chance to win, I will not miss it. Of course you make your own decisions, your right I do not dispute. However, I don't think that a 5% chance is a high probability.

[Janation]

Awesome post, love seeing the probabilities for each type of hand! Poker got really big here in the United States around 2003-4 time frame.  I was in college at the time and when I first learned how to play I was absolutely hooked.  We would play every night for months on end.  The only problem with sit down texas holdem is making sure you've got absolutely nothing to do for hours on end.  I would often just go all in when I wanted to go do something.  Other than that, it is easily my favorite gambling game hands down too.

Thank you for appreciation, have to admit that I am the same although it was around my senior hihschool year when I learn to fully play and it was the perfect game to play on dead hours of our classes, it really is time consuming and that is part of the reason that I haven't played awhile.

I kind of relate to this.

I just learned Poker in 2018 when I first watched a professional tournament which is called WSOP. It is amazing and I've been following some facebook pages to watch some videos. But in the past we've been playing too every lunch break at my teacher's cubicle ainc eit is the safest place with a game like poker we call Tongits.