Now or wait?

[clifjw]

Hey all,

I've fancied investing in BTC for a long time, but never took the time to fully immerse myself in research mode. Back in early September I committed to learning about it when the price was 7-8k GBP. In all that time since then, I feel like I've watched every podcast and talk featuring Andreas Antonopoulos, and have been reading a lot of threads in this Beginners section.

I've made no movement on it as I wanted to fully understand what I was doing first, and in that time I've obviously seen the price rise from around 8k GBP to the now 13k GBP and it continues to grow. I feel confident enough now to get started with a small transaction. My plan was to get a hardware wallet and a wallet on an exchange to buy, then immediately shift it to the hardware wallet. I am not looking to be a day trader, I am not looking for a quick win, I want to be part of the crypto movement with the intention making some investment gains over a longer period. After I feel comfortable from my first small transaction, I want to look at £500 for openers then with further smaller additions monthly. I had thought of splitting that on alt coins, but maybe I need to research alt coins more first as my primary focus has been learning about bitcoin.

My question is, is now a good time considering the current run? In my mind, I know it's just as likely that the price will keep rising as it will fall back to lower levels. I know that no one can tell me what will happen as it's entirely speculative. However I'm just looking for a bit of advice from you pro's. In your opinions, would it be worth just setting up all the wallets, making a tiny transaction to get a feel for it then see what happens with the price before I start looking at buying in with my £500 + months investments? Or would it be better to stop beating about the bush and get that £500 in?

Just to confirm, I am working by the "only invest what you can afford to lose" rule as well.

Many thank for any advice you can spare for a newbie.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Well, I remember reading a similar thread when the price of bitcoin was ~8k dollars and look at it now, it has been doubled. Good job if you've seen Andreas' videos, he has made some good work. Especially the "Mastering Bitcoin", that thing was a masterpiece at the time I was reading it, as a newbie.

Since you mentioned that you are not looking on winning quickly, I advice you to go for it with the £500. I consider it lot of money for your first transaction, but it seems to me that you've understood the basics about bitcoin, technically things included. I predict 2021 to be a great year for bitcoin.

[NotATether]

With the current market state, if you want to invest in bitcoin. I'd... wait for a day or two before investing £500. I'm saying this because Bitcoin is now at $18,198, and that is it's new monthly ATH. It's likely there will be a small dip back to the $17K range so I suggest buying that one if you are lucky to make it there.

[lovesmayfamilis]

Such a sharp rise can lead to an equally quick correction. Then the time will come to buy. Analysts predict that the price of the coin could become very volatile by the New Year holidays.
But in the long run, Bitcoin is always relevant. The only thing that you always need to consider and be prepared for is that Bitcoin is very volatile and you only need to invest what you are willing to lose.
Although Tom Fitzpatrick's optimistic forecasts predict very good Bitcoin growth in 2021.

https://modernconsensus.com/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin-to-hit-318k-by-december-2021-citibank-managing-director/


In any case, bitcoin will gain more and more popularity every year and will increase its value accordingly.

[clifjw]

With the current market state, if you want to invest in bitcoin. I'd... wait for a day or two before investing £500. I'm saying this because Bitcoin is now at $18,198, and that is it's new monthly ATH. It's likely there will be a small dip back to the $17K range so I suggest buying that one if you are lucky to make it there.

Thank you NotATether. I'll take that under advisement. I'm annoyed that I didn't get in at the £8k level, but fully understanding is more valuable to me than potentially making a mistake.

[NeuroticFish]

With the current market state, if you want to invest in bitcoin. I'd... wait for a day or two before investing £500. I'm saying this because Bitcoin is now at $18,198, and that is it's new monthly ATH. It's likely there will be a small dip back to the $17K range so I suggest buying that one if you are lucky to make it there.

Another approach could be to buy multiple smaller amounts in different (sparse) days, so you're kinda covered whether it'll go down or move further up ("dollar-cost averaging").
Just you'll have to be careful the fees don't get too high if you go in this direction (eg. you better deposit larger amounts to exchanges and then from those amounts you buy multiple times; of course this doesn't work if you buy with card).

[clifjw]

Such a sharp rise can lead to an equally quick correction. Then the time will come to buy. Analysts predict that the price of the coin could become very volatile by the New Year holidays.
But in the long run, Bitcoin is always relevant. The only thing that you always need to consider and be prepared for is that Bitcoin is very volatile and you only need to invest what you are willing to lose.
Although Tom Fitzpatrick's optimistic forecasts predict very good Bitcoin growth in 2021.

https://modernconsensus.com/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin-to-hit-318k-by-december-2021-citibank-managing-director/


In any case, bitcoin will gain more and more popularity every year and will increase its value accordingly.

Thank you for your input lovesmayfamilis. I'm comfortable with the amount I'm looking to put in, and excited to be a part of crypto.

With the current market state, if you want to invest in bitcoin. I'd... wait for a day or two before investing £500. I'm saying this because Bitcoin is now at $18,198, and that is it's new monthly ATH. It's likely there will be a small dip back to the $17K range so I suggest buying that one if you are lucky to make it there.

Another approach could be to buy multiple smaller amounts in different (sparse) days, so you're kinda covered whether it'll go down or move further up ("dollar-cost averaging").
Just you'll have to be careful the fees don't get too high if you go in this direction (eg. you better deposit larger amounts to exchanges and then from those amounts you buy multiple times; of course this doesn't work if you buy with card).

Great advice NeuroticFish, many thanks for commenting. I'll bear that possibility in mind.

[joniboini]

Just to confirm, I am working by the "only invest what you can afford to lose" rule as well.

I second the opinion about DCA. I think that strategy is better for you, especially if you plan to invest for the long-term and believe that BTC has a good fundamental value. For example, buy $100 worth of Bitcoin every month regardless of its current price and then plan your exit after 3 years or so.

Since you already said that you can afford to lose all of your money, don't forget that the risk of a massive dump is also big. Don't let your emotion ruins your plan.

[clifjw]

Just to confirm, I am working by the "only invest what you can afford to lose" rule as well.

I second the opinion about DCA. I think that strategy is better for you, especially if you plan to invest for the long-term and believe that BTC has a good fundamental value. For example, buy $100 worth of Bitcoin every month regardless of its current price and then plan your exit after 3 years or so.

Since you already said that you can afford to lose all of your money, don't forget that the risk of a massive dump is also big. Don't let your emotion ruins your plan.

Thank you joniboini. I like the sound of the DCA strategy. It's not something I'd come across. Is it recommended to adopt both strategy's, so DCA as the primary method and then watching the way BTC performs if there is a large enough drop do a/some larger investments? Eg as you said, lets say for me £50 a month say, then if there's a dump over Christmas/New Year invest in a larger one off sum while it regains its composure (providing the disposable funds are there of course).

[jseverson]

A few days ago I would have told you to go for it, but after this explosive rise to ~$18k, I'm inclined to think there is a crash looming. I would personally wait, but now wouldn't be a bad time either if, as you said, you're in it for the long haul; I'm sure BTC can achieve much greater heights in the future, so missing out on a small discount here shouldn't matter too much.

One more thing I'd like to mention since you were interested in DCA, is that lump sump investment tends to outperform it according to this small study. It's going to depend on your entry point, of course, but it's still worth noting.

[clifjw]

A few days ago I would have told you to go for it, but after this explosive rise to ~$18k, I'm inclined to think there is a crash looming. I would personally wait, but now wouldn't be a bad time either if, as you said, you're in it for the long haul; I'm sure BTC can achieve much greater heights in the future, so missing out on a small discount here shouldn't matter too much.

One more thing I'd like to mention since you were interested in DCA, is that lump sump investment tends to outperform it according to this small study. It's going to depend on your entry point, of course, but it's still worth noting.

Thank you for your input jseverson, much appreciated. I'm feeling at the moment from responses that I should be entirely ready to start at a moments notice given we've hit ATH, so right now the best thing to do is decide on an exchange, mobile wallet and choose between a Trezor or Ledger hardware wallet. I have a friend with some BTC who has always said he'd be willing to get me started with a first transaction which gives me more confidence as well.

[Lucius]

clifjw, no one here or anywhere else can tell you for sure what will happen to the price of Bitcoin - especially in the short term. Undoubtedly, the price has risen sharply, but this is the result of the great interest shown mainly by large American companies and funds that have been buying large quantities of BTC in the last few months. The question is whether they are investing in the long run (which would be very good), or they will follow the market and at some point sell BTC to profit.

It is never too late to invest in BTC, but (unless you are aiming for short-term profit) let's say that this moment is not very favorable, because the correction can come at any moment (but it doesn't have to).

If you want to learn something from this, then realize that smart investors come in when some asset is at the bottom (when blood is on the streets), and that happened in early March. In these moments, they profit, and people like you still wonder if they should invest or not.

Your money, your decision

[clifjw]

clifjw, no one here or anywhere else can tell you for sure what will happen to the price of Bitcoin - especially in the short term. Undoubtedly, the price has risen sharply, but this is the result of the great interest shown mainly by large American companies and funds that have been buying large quantities of BTC in the last few months. The question is whether they are investing in the long run (which would be very good), or they will follow the market and at some point sell BTC to profit.

It is never too late to invest in BTC, but (unless you are aiming for short-term profit) let's say that this moment is not very favorable, because the correction can come at any moment (but it doesn't have to).

If you want to learn something from this, then realize that smart investors come in when some asset is at the bottom (when blood is on the streets), and that happened in early March. In these moments, they profit, and people like you still wonder if they should invest or not.

Your money, your decision

Thanks Lucius. Wise words. For everyone who's already an investor in BTC I hope there is no correction and it keeps rising. For me, I hope it plummets momentarily to enable me to climb aboard the BTC train at a low(er) level.  Either way, I hope to become a "smarter investor" by continuing to learn on the subject from pro's like yourself and the others who have kindly given me invaluable input in this thread and who continue to help other newbies like myself. 

[condoras]

clifjw, no one here or anywhere else can tell you for sure what will happen to the price of Bitcoin - especially in the short term.

Still, we are "all" here, don't we?

Undoubtedly, the price has risen sharply, but this is the result of the great interest shown mainly by large American companies and funds that have been buying large quantities of BTC in the last few months. The question is whether they are investing in the long run (which would be very good), or they will follow the market and at some point sell BTC to profit.

Of course, they will do this since this is the way to gain more profit. Buy-sell-buy-sell... The difference is that they "know" how to do it.

It is never too late to invest in BTC

That's the truth...

Your money, your decision

and that's the conclusion.

[friends1980]

clifjw, I haven't bought for a very long time even though I've been in this community for over 3 years - and have always been active during this whole time. Nonetheless, I have exactly the same questions and doubts as you do. Just like you, I'm a very careful investor. That's not necessarily a matter of being poor, it's rather a very realistic question of not wanting to lose the money I've been working hard for, every day of my professional life.

As I said, I've been here on almost a daily basis for over 3 years, and I confirm 100% what several posters have said before me: the BTC price has been increasing extremely rapidly for several days and weeks now. A correction will come soon certainly, but when, and at which price point, well.... even people who have years of experience with BTC and TA or FA will probably admit they're not 100% sure.

So all I can do, is tell you what "my simple plan" is: I'm waiting for a correction before buying more (for the first time in over 1 year, by the way). But I must admit that, just like you, for the first time in years I'm experiencing FOMO. Being a hodler, that's quite confrontational tbh.



edit: by the way, welcome to this community
(it's a refreshment and takes a bit of time getting used to seeing a newbie who doesn't post about Merit )

[abokhalel2]

I think that this is not the limit, and it seems to me that it is too late to enter. In any case, this is not the limit and the moment will come when it will go up

[clifjw]

I think that this is not the limit, and it seems to me that it is too late to enter. In any case, this is not the limit and the moment will come when it will go up

Hi abokhalel2. Thanks for your opinion, appreciated. May I ask why you think it's too late to enter? I assume you mean it's too late to get involved with BTC from an investment perspective? (unless it was a typo?)
If you don't believe we've hit the limit, and you believe the moment will come when it will go up, why would you say it's too late to enter?
Please don't take that the wrong way, I'm so green when it comes to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency (I know nothing lol  ) and I'm eager to learn more. It's just from what I've read about Bitcoin so far and it's underlying technology, it's not going away anytime soon and it's full potential is still being realised even this many years after it's initial conception. Also my understanding is Bitcoin is capped so the closer we get to that total number of bitcoins being mined, the more valuable it will inevitably become (albeit with bumps in the road along the way no doubt).

clifjw, I haven't bought for a very long time even though I've been in this community for over 3 years - and have always been active during this whole time. Nonetheless, I have exactly the same questions and doubts as you do. Just like you, I'm a very careful investor. That's not necessarily a matter of being poor, it's rather a very realistic question of not wanting to lose the money I've been working hard for, every day of my professional life.

As I said, I've been here on almost a daily basis for over 3 years, and I confirm 100% what several posters have said before me: the BTC price has been increasing extremely rapidly for several days and weeks now. A correction will come soon certainly, but when, and at which price point, well.... even people who have years of experience with BTC and TA or FA will probably admit they're not 100% sure.

So all I can do, is tell you what "my simple plan" is: I'm waiting for a correction before buying more (for the first time in over 1 year, by the way). But I must admit that, just like you, for the first time in years I'm experiencing FOMO. Being a hodler, that's quite confrontational tbh.

edit: by the way, welcome to this community
(it's a refreshment and takes a bit of time getting used to seeing a newbie who doesn't post about Merit )

Thanks for replying friends1980. It's certainly very daunting moving into any new venture. Especially such a technical subject. I must say, I've know about BTC for a long, long time but never known anything more than "oh its a digital currency bubble that's gonna pop". Having watched so much of Andreas Antonopoulos over the last few months and been interested in learning more about the underlying technology I now realise how foolish I was to just follow the media and those poo pooing it without researching it for myself. I'm really enjoying it and I'm looking forward to getting involved even at a very low level.

Your plan sounds like a good one. I will likely do a few transactions of very small number so I can see how it all works before making any real movements. But I do like the idea of DCA.

Regarding Merit. I'll be honest, I have seen a post or two about it but I don't understand it. Bitcoin underlying technology makes more sense to me than that lol. I understand its a way of paying respect for quality posts on this board. I just don't understand why people are chasing it so badly. Maybe you can enlighten me?  

Finally, thanks for the "welcome", I look forward to learning all I can from you regulars here that know what you're doing. I have so much to learn, but I'm excited.  

[DdmrDdmr]

<…>

If you’re interested in playing around with DCA scenarios, there are some calculators around that let you perform simulations, such as https://dcabtc.com/. This one has the advantage that you can do retrospective analysis over past timeframes (unlike others that bring the deadline until the current date), although the "accumulate for" is limited to 6 months or multiples of a whole year from the "starting" point.

Not all scenarios are necessarily favourable: going over the historical BTC price, (see the chart at https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/), I parametrized the page for a weekly purchase of 100$, accumulation for a year (only) since 19/11/2017.

The result would be:

"Wow! Buying $100 of Bitcoin every week for 1 year starting on 2017-11-19 would have turned $5,300 into $3,666 (-30%)". Not good at all.

But … If I’d held on for another year, the results would be:
"Wow! Buying $100 of Bitcoin every week for 2 years starting on 2017-11-19 would have turned $10,500 into $13,392 (+27%)". A fair share better.

[20kevin20]

First of all, congrats for being so interested and preferring to rather invest your time to study Bitcoin than quickly rush the investments and have them easily go wrong. I like how you think and the "invest only what you can afford to lose" idea is as true as it can get. Keep on reading - it's something you should never stop doing, but also something a lot of people really don't do (unfortunately).

If I was to start again from zero, I'd honestly just keep purchasing whenever I have money to allocate for crypto investments. Besides the very beginning when I didn't know much about Bitcoin or other kind of investments at all, I've never had even a single Bitcoin investment go wrong as I've always had patience with it. Long term has always paid Bitcoin hodlers well, and I personally have high hopes for the future.

Purchasing a HW is a great idea. Another thing you could consider is purchasing a (or making your own) steel seed backup tablet/capsule for protection against really bad events such as strong house fires.

Altcoins are a very volatile and risky area. If Bitcoin is risky itself as an investment, altcoins are worse. Most of the time, it's only an illusion that you earn more money in the end - I mean, you do earn a profit with some of them.. but in the end, while an alt goes up twice (in USD) while other alts go down, Bitcoin usually increases way more than that in price and if you do a little calculus in the end, you'd find out that having invested everything in BTC from the start would've been way more profitable than investing in multiple coins.

As you said, everything is speculative about the price. If I was to tell you my own opinion, it'd be that even at $50k Bitcoin would still be very cheap for me on the longer term - and I'd still invest my time and money in it even if it ever gets up there. But that's a risk I take and assume - as you say, it could very well just drop at any given time (and there are quite a lot of historical drops I've been through myself). Emotionally, it makes you want to get out of the market.

Besides the first years of my crypto adventure, I've never let myself be emotionally driven again because I noticed that's the specific reason I kept messing up. Now for the investment strategy, I'll support the DCA as well. As long as you don't want to make quick wins, I think you'd be fine going for it. But again, I'm not a crystal ball and I really hope I am not wrong. However, investment equals risk and if you get to accept this idea, you should be fine.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Regarding Merit. I'll be honest, I have seen a post or two about it but I don't understand it. Bitcoin underlying technology makes more sense to me than that lol. I understand its a way of paying respect for quality posts on this board. I just don't understand why people are chasing it so badly. Maybe you can enlighten me?  

Yes it is very simple. People want merits, because without them you can't rank up. For example in order to become Sr. Member, it is required to have received at least 250 merits. So far so good, by being active on this forum it means that you'll get higher ranks in the future. Now here's the nice part. Signature campaigns. I hope you understand that this place is surrounded by geniuses, either on the technical background of bitcoin or on the marketing of it. Since everyone here talks about bitcoin, it would be the greatest place to advertise your products, for example a casino or an exchange site. You can do that by well paying the forum's admin (@theymos).

Then someone thought of a better way. Advertising on members' signature. Right now I'm advertising a product (from both signature and avatar). Signature campaign managers want members that make quality posts. The more merits, the better proof that you make quality posts. Take a look on this thread: Overview of Bitcointalk Signature-Ad Campaigns.

I observe that you'll have a future on bitcoin and I would suggest you to be active on this forum. You'll learn so many things here.