On
https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/ it says transactions with fees set at 1-2 satoshi/byte will be confirmed within 20-240 min (3-19 blocks). Is this actually true?
No, its not. At least I pay more than 5 satoshis per byte on my transactions and they get confirmed within the next 20-30 blocks. Also, no one can give you a sure answer. I once had make a transaction with 1 satoshi fee and it got confirmed within the next 5 minutes. I also once had made a transaction with 10 satoshis fee and it took some hours to get confirmed.
If I set the transaction fee that low will it actually have 1 confirmation in no more than 4 hours?
If you set it 1 and it gets confirmed within the next 4 hours, you're lucky. With the current mempool, 1 satoshi per byte will be forgotten in the next years.
If not, will realistically it ever confirm?
I've never lost a transaction because of the mempool's 2-week limit. Even one time that I had sent a transaction with only 300 satoshis (in total which was about 0,4 sats/byte). Recently I made a transaction with 1 sat/byte and it got confirmed after 9 days. Nine! This is why I created this thread:
What do you think is the biggest disadvantage of bitcoin?Bitcoin network, strange world!