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Question: Would you go short or long?  (Voting closed: November 29, 2011, 01:27:23 AM)
Short - 9 (14.1%)
Long - 28 (43.8%)
Bitcoinica kills the third world - 14 (21.9%)
I like bitcoinica but no thanks - 13 (20.3%)
Total Voters: 64

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Author Topic: If you were to start a position on bitcoinica RIGHT NOW...  (Read 2900 times)
Crypt_Current
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November 26, 2011, 01:27:23 AM
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Happy holidays everyone.

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RyNinDaCleM
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November 26, 2011, 01:44:59 AM
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D.
Mostly ignorance I guess. I went to the site, and I couldn't figure it out in a minute or two so I left. I wasn't about to just throw money away on trial and error. This was when they were fairly new(er). I haven't been back since.   Undecided

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November 26, 2011, 02:09:11 AM
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short.

it could go up to 2.6 but going back to the low 2s for certain. (That is even if this is market reversal.)

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November 26, 2011, 02:13:05 AM
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short.

it could go up to 2.6 but going back to the low 2s for certain. (That is even if this is market reversal.)

What kind of time span are we talkin here?

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November 26, 2011, 02:18:17 AM
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hours.

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November 26, 2011, 02:34:12 AM
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hours.

I'm putting all eleven of my dispensable dollars in faith of your statement, sir.  I hope you don't let me down.

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November 26, 2011, 02:35:38 AM
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hours.

I'm putting all eleven of my dispensable dollars in faith of your statement, sir.  I hope you don't let me down.

But... long has more votes.  Ugh, i'm so torn.

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November 26, 2011, 03:02:30 AM
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Don't take "advice" from someone else on that matter, I have a short position myself so I can't be impartial. Rather learn technical analysis and draw your own conclusions.
I use RSI and Aroon Oscillators if that helps any.

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November 26, 2011, 03:52:07 AM
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I wasn't about to just throw money away on trial and error.

Put $1 in.  Pretend it's 100% of your money.  If gain 10 cents then that is 10 percent.
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November 26, 2011, 06:02:58 AM
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Can someone please explain exactly how to sell short on Bitcoinica? I've googled and searched, and I swear there's no good explanation that easily shows up. So, if you'd be so kind, walk through a scenario at the current BTC price of around $2.50. Let's say I expect it to drop to $2.2 in the near future, and I've got 10 BTC to put into Bitcoinica. What do I do to set that up as a short sell? How does the 2.5:1 margin come into play? What's the maximum BTC I can short at $2.2 with my 10BTC, and at what price would my position be forced into liquidation? Thanks in advance!

PS -- Zhoutong, you seriously need some clear instructions on your site; I'd suggest the FAQ page, which at present doesn't contain a lot of useful information. Walk through examples of how to do a short sell, a put, a long, etc. It would be very useful to me, and I'm sure others as well.

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November 26, 2011, 07:19:20 AM
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Can someone please explain exactly how to sell short on Bitcoinica? I've googled and searched, and I swear there's no good explanation that easily shows up. So, if you'd be so kind, walk through a scenario at the current BTC price of around $2.50. Let's say I expect it to drop to $2.2 in the near future, and I've got 10 BTC to put into Bitcoinica. What do I do to set that up as a short sell? How does the 2.5:1 margin come into play? What's the maximum BTC I can short at $2.2 with my 10BTC, and at what price would my position be forced into liquidation? Thanks in advance!

PS -- Zhoutong, you seriously need some clear instructions on your site; I'd suggest the FAQ page, which at present doesn't contain a lot of useful information. Walk through examples of how to do a short sell, a put, a long, etc. It would be very useful to me, and I'm sure others as well.

Just sell 25 or however much your leverage allows or however much you feel comfortable with.  Your max leverage is probably 2.5 right now, so 25 would be the max you can do with 10.  It'll show your position as -25.0 (or however much you sold).  Number on left is what you sell for, number on right is what you buy at.
A margin call occurs when your net value drops below twice your maintenance.  I'm not sure how maintenance is figured up.  You'll know when you get a margin call (if you keep the page open) -- a big pinkish red warning box appears on the trade page.  I am not sure how much longer after a margin call a forced liquidation will occur.  Soon, I would guess, but it's only happened to me once so far and that was because I was not able to get to the interwebs for three days (nature sucks).

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November 26, 2011, 07:54:50 AM
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Can someone please explain exactly how to sell short on Bitcoinica? I've googled and searched, and I swear there's no good explanation that easily shows up. So, if you'd be so kind, walk through a scenario at the current BTC price of around $2.50. Let's say I expect it to drop to $2.2 in the near future, and I've got 10 BTC to put into Bitcoinica. What do I do to set that up as a short sell? How does the 2.5:1 margin come into play? What's the maximum BTC I can short at $2.2 with my 10BTC, and at what price would my position be forced into liquidation? Thanks in advance!

PS -- Zhoutong, you seriously need some clear instructions on your site; I'd suggest the FAQ page, which at present doesn't contain a lot of useful information. Walk through examples of how to do a short sell, a put, a long, etc. It would be very useful to me, and I'm sure others as well.

Just sell 25 or however much your leverage allows or however much you feel comfortable with.  Your max leverage is probably 2.5 right now, so 25 would be the max you can do with 10.  It'll show your position as -25.0 (or however much you sold).  Number on left is what you sell for, number on right is what you buy at.
A margin call occurs when your net value drops below twice your maintenance.  I'm not sure how maintenance is figured up.  You'll know when you get a margin call (if you keep the page open) -- a big pinkish red warning box appears on the trade page.  I am not sure how much longer after a margin call a forced liquidation will occur.  Soon, I would guess, but it's only happened to me once so far and that was because I was not able to get to the interwebs for three days (nature sucks).
Again, a specific rundown of what the various numbers mean and which option to use on Bitcoinica would be supremely useful. So let's say I have 2.8BTC deposited (since I do -- figure I gotta try it out). At the current BTC price, that works out to a margin balance of $7.00 and a tradeable balance of $17.50. Great. Now what do I do to "sell 20 or however much my leverage allows"? Let's say I expect price to drop to $2.40 soon, which is only a $0.10 drop. Does that mean I can put a limit buy of 7.29 BTC ($17.50 / $2.40 = 7.28167), or does that mean I could put in a limit buy of 50 BTC and still have leverage available (e.g. $17 / $.10 = 170 BTC leverage)?

This is what I mean by the whole "Bitcoinica needs better instructions" statement. Yes, there are plenty of us new to trading because of BTC, and we might make mistakes, but at the very least let us know how to do it.

Here's another one for you: Bitcoinica has a tab labeled "Positions" and another labeled "Orders". If I go to "Positions" I get a message saying, "You don't have any active position yet. Why not place an order now?" That naturally links back to the same old Limit/Stop/Trailing Stop/Market order screen. The descriptions of the various orders don't immediately make sense. I tried a few out with not real success so far; I thought I put in a stop order to buy 1BTC at $2.80 for example, and now I have a position saying "1BTC @ $2.5274, -$0.05, -2.083%". My orders tab also has "BTCUSD Limit 1.0 $2.8000 Executed @ 2.5274". Maybe I hit the wrong button somewhere, but how does a stop buy at $2.80 show up as a position, and what does this mean? Does this mean I'm betting the price will now go up to $2.80? Because I then put in a stop sell at $2.40 for 1BTC, but that didn't show up as a position and so now I'm back to being confused.

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November 26, 2011, 08:14:54 AM
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http://www.sec.gov/investor/alerts/trading101basics.pdf

The internets are good for learning about things.

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November 26, 2011, 08:56:25 AM
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http://www.sec.gov/investor/alerts/trading101basics.pdf

The internets are good for learning about things.
Except, LightRider, even having read that (and several other items of a similar nature, e.g. on Wikipedia), that DOES NOT EXPLAIN HOW IT RELATES TO Bitcoinica. Yup, I'm shouting there to get the point across. So, if you understand exactly how the limit, stop, and trailing stop orders relate specifically to Bitcoinica, please take a couple minutes instead to enlighten me on what exactly I  should do if I expect price to drop. We're at "2.47504 / 2.52631" right now, I have $12 of tradeable balance. How do I put in an order so that I benefit if the price drops -- e.g. let's just say $2.40 as a starting point? How much can I benefit off a drop to $2.40 given my current $12 tradeable balance? Those are the questions I'd like explained, and WikiPedia and your SEC link don't cover it after going through them both several times.

If I put in a "Limit Buy", for instance, right now I can say "Limit Buy 20 BTC @ $2.30" and it shows up as an open order. However, I don't have the necessary funds to buy that many BTC, so I don't know what this means. I can cancel the order, though. The reverse would seem to be a "Limit Sell of 20 BTC @ $2.70", on the assumption the price will go up (?). Neither one of these is particularly helpful, as I don't know what Bitcoinica will do if the price reaches one of those values. Does Bitcoinica then give me a position? Do I profit from guessing correctly? I don't know.

So let's go to the "Stop Buy" option. The description says, "Your order is executed when the market price is higher (buying), lower (selling) or equal than your specified price." Okay, so if I put a Stop Buy of 1BTC at $2.80 (as I have already done), that says if the price hits $2.80... then what? I "buy" 1BTC? Or do I now profit $0.30 because I guess correctly that the price would go up $0.30?

I guess ultimately I'm just going to walk away, come back in the morning, and hopefully the price has changed and I can see what happened and go from there. Right now, I've got four orders that "executed" (and apparently turned into positions), which looks like so:

BTCUSD   Limit   -1.0   $2.4500   Executed @ 2.475   7 minutes ago   
BTCUSD   Stop   1.0   $2.4500   Executed @ 2.5127   9 minutes ago   
BTCUSD   Stop   1.0   $2.3000   Executed @ 2.5273   about 1 hour ago   
BTCUSD   Limit   1.0   $2.8000   Executed @ 2.5274   about 1 hour ago   

The result of the above (apparently my limit and stop at $2.45 canceled out?) is a position that says:

BTCUSD   2.0   $2.5462   -$0.14   -2.795%

And looking at that line, I ain't got a clue in Hades as to what it actually means, other than that it appears I'm currently down -2.795%. That would make sense on the one hand: price hasn't moved much and so the spread works against me. In the morning, I'll return and if it goes up, my $2.80 position benefits I guess, and if it goes down, the other positions benefit? Or maybe that $2.80 was put in wrong and so I'm actually hoping it goes down. Whee. Time to go to bed.

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November 26, 2011, 09:28:52 AM
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@trogdorjw73

I'm struggling to interpreted things as well.  I guess if I'd played around with Forex, the stuff would be obvious.  Even futures would probably help, but I've done neither.  Here are some details/observations which may or may not help shed light on things.

I actually decided that I did not need Bitcoinica since I have both the USD and BTC to fund my own gambling and pocket the spread.  Additionally, operations on the exchanges are much faster, cheaper, and more intuitive.  Futures markets would probably be more useful for real business with a legitimate need to hedge I would think.  But I left a few BTC in in order to piss them away on leverage.

I've found that while the spread numbers are updated continuousness, the rest of the details are not.  And sometimes re-loads are particularly slow.  I think that some of my head-scratching was associated with not waiting long enough for things to update.

I have always been under the impression that one wants to 'buy low and sell high' to end up making money.  This seems to be either wrong on Bitcoinica/Forex, or I am looking at things from the wrong perspective about who, exactly, is buying and who is selling.

Wishing to 'go long', I put in a 'limit sell' for a higher price than market.  I thought that what would happen would be that Bitcoinica would 'buy' my order at current market price, then sell it if/when it reached my target price.  What seemed to happen was basically nothing.  After the market rose to my target price, it was still on the 'order' books.  So I tried to get rid of it.  That seemed to switch it to a 'position', and nothing I could do could get rid of it.  Later, when the price rose some more, I was able to 'liquidate' it.

My various attempts to get rid of the order or liquidate the possition were not successful in doing that, but lost me a fair amount of money (as a percentage of my meager funding) in a hurry while trying.  I guess that was the 'spread' kicking  in.

So, I thought I would try again.  This time I accidentally put in a 'limit buy' for a much higher price.  This was basically an accident to do a 'buy' rather than a 'sell', but in this case the 'order' turned into a 'position' immediately.  The market price has been going higher, and my p/l is green and rising.  Dunno what will happen if/when I hit my target price (North of $3.00) but I'll try to update this post if it does.


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November 26, 2011, 09:45:15 AM
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imho expecting bitcoinica to teach you how to trade is like expecting adidas to teach you how to play soccer.
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November 26, 2011, 09:50:27 AM
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To answer the caps question above "HOW DOES IT RELATE TO BITCOINICA" bitcoinica works pretty much the exact same way as well, any market, be it stocks or forex.

Orders page =  http://puu.sh/9m9o
What happened in that image is: I bought 26 bitcoins, my original bid was $2.50 (You cannot see this here) however a cheaper price was available at $2.471 so that was the final buying price, it purchased coins at the best available price because I used a 'buy limit' order.

Positions Page: http://puu.sh/9m9K
A position is an order that has been filled, so since I bought 26 coins (and 1 more in a trade I didnt screenshot) my position is 27 bitcoins, although there are no deliveries the best way to think about it is that I now, after buying them, have 27 coins in my wallet.  The P/L field is simply profit/loss, red means a loss, green means profit. P/L % Same except in percent form. The liquidate button is the button you use to close your position (Either secure profits or cut losses), if you bought coins, I like to think of it as bitcoinica is selling them back to other people and giving you the USD value of them credited to your account.

To the guys above me, I don't mean to be rude here, but if you dont have a decent understanding of margin/leverage, order types and the ideas behind going long and short, you shouldn't be on bitcoinica, all you will do is lose your money unless you get lucky, in which case you will lose your money at a later time. Simply google some basic forex tutorials, the concepts are all the same.

imho expecting bitcoinica to teach you how to trade is like expecting adidas to teach you how to play soccer.


This guy speaks the truth, it is not bitcoinicas role to teach you how to trade, they offer you a platform, not a school.
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November 26, 2011, 10:29:26 AM
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imho expecting bitcoinica to teach you how to trade is like expecting adidas to teach you how to play soccer.

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November 26, 2011, 06:17:10 PM
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imho expecting bitcoinica to teach you how to trade is like expecting adidas to teach you how to play soccer.


This guy speaks the truth, it is not bitcoinicas role to teach you how to trade, they offer you a platform, not a school.

If Bitcoinica's business model is based on their customers not knowing how to use the platform, then yes, it would be absurd and counterproductive to spend effort on training and documentation.


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November 26, 2011, 06:26:02 PM
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imho expecting bitcoinica to teach you how to trade is like expecting adidas to teach you how to play soccer.


This guy speaks the truth, it is not bitcoinicas role to teach you how to trade, they offer you a platform, not a school.

If Bitcoinica's business model is based on their customers not knowing how to use the platform, then yes, it would be absurd and counterproductive to spend effort on training and documentation.



That is wrong, while they profit from people using it the wrong way they still make profit from regular usage. You could probably exploit their business model with a bot, but in order to do that you would already need a pretty smart predictive bot which would drain the exchanges anyway.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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