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Author Topic: Bitcoins in 2030  (Read 361 times)
sheenshane
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December 08, 2020, 11:01:29 PM
 #21

2030? Very interesting to discuss, but why think about 2030?
is it certain that 2021 Bitcoin will really reach the new all time high?
It might be yes it might be no, who knows.

Prediction for Bitcoin price 10 years from now maybe there's a lot of changes since we don't have any superstitious power to know what lies ahead  Cheesy.

Seriously, paying attention to Satoshi's statement.
Quote
I'm sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.

This means even the person who created it doesn't give a guarantee on the future of Bitcoin either it will succeed, or it will fail.  If we will look back on the history of gold, for some reason government tend to ban golds ownership after legalizing it first for they lose control of the properties and assets of their citizens and just legalized it again when they were able to regulate it and subject the gold to their jurisdiction.  Bitcoin's greatest opponent is its ideology of decentralization that is against the government's principle.

Chances are if the government will continue to legalize Bitcoin and gain absolute adoption then I'm not confident that Bitcoin will reach a million of dollars price for the government itself will create a project that will assist and make bitcoin conducive to everyone.  However, if the other way happens then, there's no price we need to predict like what Satoshi mentioned: "no volume at all".

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acquafredda
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December 09, 2020, 03:07:30 PM
 #22

Very fascinating scenario. There is also another unknown variable to be considered: how much a dollar will be worth every step on the way and will be the dollar still keeping its dominance as the most common currency in the world? If bitcoin lives up to its own expectations a parabolic rise like the one you imagined it is not impossible at all.

That is indeed a factor, but I don't think it holds so much weight, we use the U.S dollar because it's the easiest medium of exchange that we understand, but in reality, bitcoin needs to go up in value against what the majority of the world uses a "currency", miners will have to pay for electricity and make some profit, so whichever medium of exchange they use to pay those bills must drop against the exchange value of Bitcoin.
As we speak every currency (including commodities like gold, platinum, silver ...) lost their fiat currency value against bitcoin by many orders of magnitude. If this trends stays this way and bitcoin goes parabolic one day we would really have to rethink the whole concept of store-of-value.
thecodebear
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December 09, 2020, 09:44:34 PM
Merited by acquafredda (1)
 #23

2030 is a very very long way out, I doubt that we would really have anything remotely similar by that times, not just in price but even in blockchain.

I think by 2030 we could actually see bitcoin move to a smaller transaction method like lightning network or something else, and we could potentially even see proof of stake in bitcoin as well compared to proof of work depending on how it works out for ethereum, if many people love it, someone will definitely develop the same for bitcoin and people will pressure big companies and so forth to move to that and if there is enough pressure they will do that too.

Long story short by 2030 we are going to be living in a totally different crypto world, which will not be same to what we have right now and price will react accordingly as well.

Have you followed the kinds of upgrades Bitcoin makes?

PoS on Bitcoin will NEVER happen. That is a huge change that would fundamentally change the Bitcoin blockchain. It is taking Ethereum multiple years to move to it and those who maintain Bitcoin have zero interest in making such huge changes to Bitcoin's blockchain. It won't happen just if people like Ethereum's PoS system. Bitcoin will forever be PoW. It will be THE Proof of Work blockchain for the world.

At best, by 2030, Bitcoin will have some modest efficiency upgrades to add a little bit more transactions to each block and maybe the LN will take off. Though honestly I think 3rd party services will just take the place of LN, like PayPal. The average person doesn't care how their Bitcoin works and they honestly don't care about decentralization (hell even crypto investors themselves for the most part don't care THAT much about decentralization - the super centralized XRP is still #3 in marketcap!), they just want Bitcoin with ease of use. And Paypal or the Cash App or whatever other payment app will be easier to use then the LN.

Bitcoin does really need a hard fork at some point in order to increase its blocksize. LN mass usage isn't even possible with current block sizes (it would take years or even decades to just onboard a significant part of the population), so Bitcoin as a massively used payment system outside of just using 3rd party companies like PayPal who throw numbers around databases and occasionally square up on the blockchain is only possible with much larger blocks. The best solution would be a modest block increase baked into each halving event. But Bitcoin devs have shown zero interest in hard forks so I don't expect Bitcoin to ever get any hard forks in the future and it will have to rely on very modest upgrades from as Bitcoin is now and as Bitcoin has been since Satoshi.

Without greater transaction volume in the blocks, the population will be forced to go the 3rd party company route (PayPal, etc) for transactions. This will make crypto/decentralization fans very angry, but the masses will be perfectly fine and happy with it. If you want to spend Bitcoin you'll just send some of yours to your money app or your bank account and they'll control it for you and let you spend it when you want. You'll be able to own Bitcoin in a decentralized manner (as always), but you'll pretty much have to spend it in a centralized way through some company's money app or with your bank card. Essentially, you'll be indirectly paying the seller cash - you'll be allowing your bank or 3rd party service to sell your bitcoin on an exchange in order to make that purchase in cash for you.

That's fine and all. The only problem is that when mining rewards get REAL small, like in a few decades, and the Bitcoin price isn't the many millions of dollars it needs to be to maintain current profit levels for miners, and they are still stuck at current sized blocks, it's going to lead people to drop out of mining bitcoin. This will have a three-fold effect: centralizing bitcoin mining because hobby miners will get dropped who don't have the efficiency of scale that mining companies do, making bitcoin less secure, and rising bitcoin transaction fees because miners start simply refusing to take low fees so that it only makes sense to move your bitcoin on the blockchain if you are moving perhaps thousands of dollars worth of bitcoin. The obvious answer is increasing the blocksize to make bitcoin mining future proof, but at least with people who maintain bitcoin so far it doesn't look like that will happen, perhaps in a few decades when this is becoming a very dire situation for Bitcoin we will have more forward thinking people who would be willing to hard fork bitcoin but then you also run into the problem that Bitcoin is then at that point huge, many times larger than now, which could make a smooth hard fork much harder to do than if it were done now or soon in the still relatively early days of Bitcoin.

In 10 years mining rewards for Bitcoin will still be fine. The price should well outstrip what miners need to continue making the profits they are used to, but in the more advanced future there will be problems as the rewards continue to halve but there is only so much money in the world that can go into Bitcoin to raise the price to support miners.
acquafredda
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December 10, 2020, 05:39:00 PM
 #24

To add some bits to thecodebear's post, I would say that bitcoin does not really need to change. It only needs a few upgrades and that is enough for a protocol which is make a killing since 2009. All the bitcoin network fundamentals are looking strong, hence no need to change.
Let us hope for a quick Taproot activation so that we can see some nice privacy improvements.
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December 10, 2020, 08:31:52 PM
 #25

2030 of course the Bitcoin price will have reached more than $ 100k,
some have even predicted that 2021 bitcoin price will be at $ 300k, I can't imagine for 2030,
whether Bitcoin will continue to life or will die.
When we do talk about future then we cant really tell off precise numbers and we cant even tell if bitcoin would be still alive and kicking into those years.

Its quite unrealistic on talking about 100k in a short or in decades time because if we do base up on how it moves into its price a decade time then it wont
really be that easy one.

Though the level of adoption is totally different compared to those older years then we might be seeing a different thing or movement but it
wont really be going into that kind of level.

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