At this very moment, everyone is discussing how the price of bitcoin is going to exceed 20,000$ within this month. But by analysing both current and previous situations, my personal opinion is it's not possible for now. What is your thinking regarding this situation?
If bitcoin can not exceed $20,000 this month, we don't have to worry because bitcoin price will have much time to pump. I believe that bitcoin will finally break $20,000, no matter if bitcoin needs more time to increase. I am sure people will accept that and they will still wait for the bitcoin price to rise. The market situation becomes better than a few days ago, so I expect that we will see something good with bitcoin. But we need to prepare for anything that can happen to bitcoin because no one will know what will happen later.
I think that Bitcoin will NOT exceed $20,000.00 till well into the year 2021. Maybe if we are 'really' lucky I'd say by the end of March 2021.
My reasoning after being into BTC since the day I started on her of April 13th, 2013 is the pattern I've seen over the last 7 to almost 8 years since.
ATH then FOMO then FUD.
First, you have an ATH (All-Time-High) then you have the PUMP and FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) then lastly, the most painful FUD (Fear/Uncertainty/Disinformation)
In other words, the ATH gets Bitcoin/Crypto a LOT of attention...as it has, as just now, 'puttered' up to that ATH again after 3 years or so.
then the 'powers that be' as I like to call them Govt/Traditional Finance/Banks/Centralized Power/Elites/ etc. All go 'damn' when did BTC/Crypto
slap back as a 'thing'? Last we looked it was 12/24/2018 and BTC went from the last ATH down to $3,900.00 USD or so.
So the FUD kicks in. Got to 'slap' this idea of decentralized power back in its place. Like the USA powerful just tried to do with that 'pesky' decentralized
Presidential Vote in this last election or gerrymandering districts to concentrate political power or stopping decentralized labor reform, etc. Too frigging
dangerous. Again, they will 'fail' at this, but this is the usual 'slap-back' I've seen about 4x since 2013. If I still had 'courage' like when I had no $$$
alas, no balls anymore to sell BTC on the dip and re-buy. Now safer just to HODL/HOARD
But anyway, always a 'slap-back' of anything to do with
decentralized wealth and/or power from those that love the status quo and have $$$ and power. The essence of a Political Science Degree Indeed.
So the Federal Govt will likely IMHO, pass the regulation, in the dead of night with no hearings, and make self-hosted wallets unusable at best on
USA crypto exchanges unless you can do KYC (Know Your Own Customer) both ways on any BTC address transaction. Which of course, is unworkable,
and likely enough pushback by big shots in BTC/Crytpo to be reversed, but this seems to be a deal with ALL the fast track regulations being slam'd
out by the former Trump Administration so I'm sure we won't be left out. This means, ahem 'cheap coins' the price will be slap'd down by such
an action and the resulting few months of confusion at best until the Biden Administration would, under pressure, fix this in a more sensible manner.
The other thing, of course, black swan event wise also, is that Mt.Gox is going to release $2.6 Billion USD of Bitcoin from the 2014 settlement of,
exchange going under. Again, best case, short-term price shock IMHO, due to the fact if you are such a legacy Bitcoinner from back in 2013 and 2014
you had Mt.Gox Bitcoin you may get back, you are just gonna move the stuff to a different wallet maybe or your Trezor and HODL is my guess.
But things in the best light will dump price to about $12k to $13k IMHO before resolving over our 'lovely' pandemic winter, so it will
be 'cheap coins' and I should buy some more BTC dust. If I am wrong and all this stuff makes it a lot worse, I'll have more to worry about with
my BTC Hoard/HODL stuff...that the BTC dust I will lose by buying in 2021 on the assumptions on the 'dip' in prices above...I will not notice through
the sobbing and the tears, if we have to wait for another 3 years till another ATH and $20,000.00 BTC. I hope I'm wrong, but that has been the pattern
sucess (ath) fomo (adoption) fud (slap back)
So the choices are, this too shall pass and if it takes 2-3 months of price confusion and FUD ..but as much 'cheap BTC/Crypto as you can!... If I am wrong
then the BTC dust I 'gather' on the way down in price above if there are more long term or year(s) to come back to the ATH,
the BTC dust I spent on the way down won't matter.
I'll be crying like a 7-year-old child if I have to start at 8K coin again and wait 2-3 years for $20,000 or next ATH yet, again. God help me if I have to face
below $10k BTC again. I may be inconsolable in my grief. Ack! The Horror! Ack!
Thus the choice is easy, may as well be optimistic and buy BTC dust in mass quantities if possible and cross fingers. The alternative of either of the above
having long term multi-year effects from re-acquiring the ATH or $20,000 BTC is to 'horrible' to contemplate!
Brad
Well, I am 'happily' having a fine meal of 'crow' as we speak. It will need a lot of seasoning and steak sauce...but am 'happy' to be wrong and scarfing it down as we speak!
So, as they say in refined circles now, the traditional bankers, the monied interests, govt officials as tonight's cocktail parties and such. Ahem, 'What the F*ck is going on with
Bitcoin! And What can we do to 'slow it down' or 'stop' it?
I imagine there are many, many financial advisors telling their big money (million/billion) dollar clients that they need a safety net of like 2-4% in Gold..or worse yet
bonds our of stocks and 60% bonds, (which IMHO with all the 'money printing' due to recession/pandemic and Trump Tax cuts of 2.1 Trillion to the very wealthy,
well, bonds will likely not keep up at all with 'inflation' in say a 2-3 year recovery...sorry...I digress!)
Anyway, as I see such a scene of many many people richer in fiat and gold and properties and stocks/bonds realizing that there is gonna be a 'correction'
and such in the stock market...I can't see with 3x the unemployment of the last economic downturn around 2007 that this will not happen!
Then, why the hell, would they get bonds or gold? So I suspect a 'pushback' to the financial advisor along the lines of "IF what you say is true and the stock market will correct and we will
have depressed consumer spending in this recession and also bonds probably won't cut it as a hedge year by year vs inflation, with all the money printing going on...
why should I JUST limit myself to gold and bonds? What about Bitcoin/Crypto? Should I not double down and put 2-4% in BTC/Crypto as well? Indeed is this not a 'better' hedge at least in
comparing it to gold/bonds when looking at returns for BTC/Crypto in 2020? I see lots and Lots of pushback, on people trying to 'tweak' their traditional portfolios this year....with some
hard, hard questions about why not BTC/Crypto to a person's financial advisor along these lines of a stock market correction. This obviously is happening at the institutional level with
these questions being asked, on why not a BTC/Crypto hedge? I assume it will trickle down to a hard set of questions for regular folk asking their financial advisors now in 2020 as well.
I mean from $7,194.98 USD on January 1st, 2010 to the current All-Time-High (ATH) as we speak, 'pumping' of $21,742.25 or within spitting distance of 3x the amount it was on 1/1/2020?
Sh*t, we may have a 'run' at $30k before the end of the year at this rate. So just to keep it going in the right direction if we beat $25k BTC I'll happily dine on another meal of crow!
Can't happen right?
Crow tastes just dandy while watching ATH FOMO if you watch such with a lot of alcohol. As a 'fun' activity it is not bad!
Thus the FOMO on Bitcoin price. Also, I think this FOMO is almost 'exclusively' institutional $$$. What the hell
the price is gonna be when the 'regular joe' jumps in with his financial advisor I've no idea! $30k BTC? $40K BTC? Sh*t. Things are wild.
Actually, 'crow' is not bad, tastes like 'overcooked' dry chicken!
I should probably say we won't make $25k BTC again, so I can be wrong and have 'crow' again, before the first of the year. Yeah, I went there. Let's see if that worked.
Brad