What is the actual all-time high, really? (re: LFC's bet with Bossian)

[nutildah]

I was reviewing the conditions of a bet between Bossian and LFC_Bitcoin where basically the bet was that BTC wouldn't see an all-time high before Jan 1st, 2022. Some sources have declared (yes, just some) that the ATH was reached on Dec 1st or Nov 30th, depending on where you live. However, for a couple of famous sources, the ATH was reached on Dec 17th, 2017.

Why the discrepancy? It of course comes down to what price(s) you are looking at. On Bitstamp, considered by many (some, but I like them) to be the most honest representation of the price of bitcoin, the ATH was indeed reached this year. According to CoinMarketCap and Coindesk, which use a weighted index to determine the price, the ATH was reached in 2017.

Here are the ATHs as recorded by some of the major exchanges:



CMC has the ATH at $20,089.00 USD because part of their weighted index includes BitMEX, which is not shown in the infographic above.

So clearly there is some debate here as to what the phrase "All-Time High" actually means. Perhaps in a day or two this will all be irrelevant but for the time being, what do you consider to be the most accurate measure of bitcoin's all-time high? Has LFC won the bet yet, or nah?

[1714669249]

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[1714669249]

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[DdmrDdmr]

I’m used to the reference from CMC, so I still consider the ATH to be dated back to the 17/12/2017. Nevertheless, if there is no extreme outlier (i.e. an exchange or aggregator with a value way off from the other platforms), I’d conceptually wait for the highest of them all to be surpassed (which would end any debate).

The 429$ gap between ATH marked by Kraken, and the ATH according to CMC seems pretty wild, but in relative terms, it’s a 2,18% difference (from Kraken’s perspective). Of course, the 17/12/2017 was pretty crazy: CMC registers a price range of 4.110$ that day (high - low), so the difference in price between exchanges is comprehensible (by contrast, the price range on CMC was 1.570,94$ in the 30/11/2020, and 1.524,06$ on the 01/12/2020).

[AB de Royse777]

I was reviewing the conditions of a bet between Bossian and LFC_Bitcoin where basically the bet was that BTC wouldn't see an all-time high before Jan 1st, 2022. Some sources have declared (yes, just some) that the ATH was reached on Dec 1st or Nov 30th, depending on where you live. However, for a couple of famous sources, the ATH was reached on Dec 17th, 2017.

Bossian clearly stated that $19.5 ish

Deal.

We won't see 19.5k(ish) (new ATH) again in 2020 or 2021, book it.

Hope you will honor this bet I will if wrong.

And wait!!! He edited it not even long ago so this was not his actual number.



When the deal was made it was $19k that he meant.

The halving is in 6 months Bossian, you’re either trolling or totally retarded if you think $4,000 is likely with a block reward halving imminent. That’s a 50% drop from here. It just isn’t going to happen.

Look at the price movements leading up to & following the previous block reward halvings.
You clearly have no idea what you’re doing or you’re trolling & I can’t figure out which.
 

Halving either won't have an impact, or it will but certainly not before 2 or 3 years. It only it was that simple, everyone would be making money with the halving coming soon. That's extremely simplistic to think this way.

Want to put your money where your mouth is?

0.05BTC bet?

• I say we see a new ATH before 2022
• You say we won’t?

Deal.

We won't see 19k again in 2020 or 2021, book it.

Hope you will honor this bet I will if wrong.

Deal!

I’m a man of my word!

Has LFC won the bet yet, or nah?

Over all, I have doubt if he (Bossian) will honer the deal since in my opinion he lost the bet. The reason for me to doubt him is his recent edit of the post. I could be wrong since I have seen newbies (in several occasions) to keep their words and Bossian is a member (rank) so far.

[Smartprofit]

In my opinion, in the situation under consideration, it is advisable to focus on the price on the Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange.  It was the most popular cryptocurrency exchange in 2017.  On November 30, 2020, the bitcoin price on this exchange was $ 19,891.  This is a historic event!  I think LFC_Bitcoin won the bet. 

$ 20,000 is a very strong psychological level for the price of bitcoin.  Will we be able to see the price of bitcoins above $ 20,000 in 2021?  I cannot answer this question.  However, this is not so important.  Bitcoin price will hit new records in the next decade (2021-2030).

[Becky666]

When Bitcoin price clocked $19,8k+ on Binance exchnage, i posted to my friends about we experienced another All Time High, they all argued, i couldn't understood their arguments because we all traded in different exchanges. This graph has just clearly stated that we surpassed 2017 All Time High some days back.

[nutildah]

Bossian clearly stated that $19.5 ish

I was giving him the benefit of the doubt that he was agreeing to the terms set forth by LFC in the post previous. He should have hired me as his attorney as I could have made some strong arguments for him.

And wait!!! He edited it not even long ago so this was not his actual number.



When the deal was made it was $19k that he meant.

Well now this changes everything. Bossian trying to be sly about shifting his numbers confirms that in his mind the bet was based off of the $19k number. Very, very interesting. Good catch Royse.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

He’s not going to pay me, I’m pretty sure of that.
He won’t be able to return to the forum & post regularly again. Everybody is going to paint him red & he’ll have no respect here.

Edit - It’s widely acknowledged that we use Bitstamp as a price reference btw.

[gentlemand]

Edited post = he will never cough up. He always struck me as a bit of a maggot anyway.

I'm not sure why Bitstamp is the reference but that'll do me. These averaging places all use different measures so there's no consistency. Others are low volume like Gemini or use USDT.

I guess Coinbase is the next one.

[Fundamentals Of]

Does it matter what exactly the ATH price was? Or which data source should it come from?

Here is their deal.

-snip

-snip-

Want to put your money where your mouth is?

0.05BTC bet?

• I say we see a new ATH before 2022
• You say we won’t?

Deal.

We won't see 19.5k(ish) (new ATH) again in 2020 or 2021, book it.

Hope you will honor this bet I will if wrong.

It is very clear from their very own words that Bossian lost the bet to LFC_Bitcoin. But as everyone suspects, Bossian won't stick to his word.

[pixie85]

I usually follow the same exchange and decide if a new ATH is reached by looking at price on that particular exchange. The exchange that I had on my price ticker was always bitstamp and now the ath there is higher than it was in 2017. So if the price has reached a new high on the same exchange it means we have a new high.

I don't get why people make bets and don't pay up. It's less than 1000 USD at todays prices, which people make in less than a month of signature posting. Surely less than your honor is worth

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

I don't get why people make bets and don't pay up. It's less than 1000 USD at todays prices, which people make in less than a month of signature posting. Surely less than your honor is worth

Bossian was a troll on WO who was picking everyone and was trying to convince with his shit! He even started arguing with all of us at that time. Just an attention seeker.

This bet was never meant to pay for him if he was lost which he lost anyway. When we asked him to escrow he was denying and talking big words. I think it's time for me to tag him unless he pays up, the tag stays.

[kryptqnick]

Bossian clearly stated that $19.5 ish

I was giving him the benefit of the doubt that he was agreeing to the terms set forth by LFC in the post previous. He should have hired me as his attorney as I could have made some strong arguments for him.

And wait!!! He edited it not even long ago so this was not his actual number.



When the deal was made it was $19k that he meant.

Well now this changes everything. Bossian trying to be sly about shifting his numbers confirms that in his mind the bet was based off of the $19k number. Very, very interesting. Good catch Royse.

I think that if a person edits the numbers like that, this person should automatically be considered the one who lost the bet because messing with conditions and trying to cheat is unacceptable. However, regarding LFC being declared a winner if we don't take the edit into account, I'm not so sure. After all, LFC's phrase was:

I say we see a new ATH before 2022

I think it's still disputable whether it happened or not. It did happen if we take the maximum price of 2017 according to Coingecko (I hope I caught the highest one):

But it did not happen if we judge it based on Coinmarketcap:


But if it's Bitstamp as LFC pointed out, then the new ATH was already established, it seems.

[mk4]

I don't get why people make bets and don't pay up. It's less than 1000 USD at todays prices, which people make in less than a month of signature posting. Surely less than your honor is worth

It's quite simple. Dude is anonymous, and since he just makes posts concerning trading anyway(haven't joined a campaign as it seems), some neg trust probably wouldn't hurt him assuming he/she continues using the same account.

[dothebeats]

Would the Korean exchanges count on the ATH metric? Because those exchanges topped @ $20k or more AFAIK. Anyway, I don’t think the other dude would honor the bet, even after him stating that LFC should honor the bet (the irony). This forum’s feature of showing whether the post was edited is actually pretty neat and saves the extra steps for proving that someone didn’t say something at some point.

[hatshepsut93]

So clearly there is some debate here as to what the phrase "All-Time High" actually means. Perhaps in a day or two this will all be irrelevant but for the time being, what do you consider to be the most accurate measure of bitcoin's all-time high? Has LFC won the bet yet, or nah?

For any practical purpose, the sides should agree beforehand on which exchange or index to use for tracking the price - there's no other way around it. If it's a casual discussion about ATH, then a few percents of difference between exchanges can be ignored.

I think this particular bet is almost decided, because the chance that the price will establish a new ATH on all exchanges in this year or the next one is extremely high. But without an established agreement on where to track the price, this bet can't be cleanly resolved until overwhelming majority of exchanges show a new ATH.

[gentlemand]

Would the Korean exchanges count on the ATH metric? Because those exchanges topped @ $20k or more AFAIK.

Negative.

South Korea is a closed market. No money can get in or out. That makes it an irrelevance compared to everywhere else. I'm surprised it's managed to remain relatively anchored to prices outside.

[hd49728]

Bossian clearly stated that $19.5 ish

I was giving him the benefit of the doubt that he was agreeing to the terms set forth by LFC in the post previous. He should have hired me as his attorney as I could have made some strong arguments for him.

And wait!!! He edited it not even long ago so this was not his actual number.



When the deal was made it was $19k that he meant.

Well now this changes everything. Bossian trying to be sly about shifting his numbers confirms that in his mind the bet was based off of the $19k number. Very, very interesting. Good catch Royse.

The edit is enough to give the win to LFC. It is no clear reason to find past post (was used to make a bet) and edit it. Without the catch, I thought Bossian would win the bet but now he does not deserve it.

Would you close the topic because the winner is found?

[pooya87]

I don't get why people make bets and don't pay up. It's less than 1000 USD at todays prices, which people make in less than a month of signature posting. Surely less than your honor is worth

Because a bet is not a bet unless the conditions are clearly defined (meaning the all time high value should have been agreed upon at the time the bet was made not now) and the bet amount should have been put in a multi-sig address preferably using a third party (escrow) using 2of3 multi-sig scheme so that neither side could back out of the bet.
Other than that, people making random promises on the internet is just hot air.

[Kakmakr]

This was also my argument/question a while ago and I did not get a precise answer on this. Let's take Zimbabwe as an example, because they had a Fiat crisis in their country (still has) and some people there started to buy bitcoins to protect the value of their Fiat savings that were being destroyed by Hyperinflation.

As a result of that, the Bitcoin demand rose sharply in that country and it was reported that people even paid up to $25 000 US for bitcoin. Can we then say, the All-time-high price is $25 000, because a small country and a few 1000 people paid $25 000 for it?

[Lmaooo]

This was also my argument/question a while ago and I did not get a precise answer on this. Let's take Zimbabwe as an example, because they had a Fiat crisis in their country (still has) and some people there started to buy bitcoins to protect the value of their Fiat savings that were being destroyed by Hyperinflation.

As a result of that, the Bitcoin demand rose sharply in that country and it was reported that people even paid up to $25 000 US for bitcoin. Can we then say, the All-time-high price is $25 000, because a small country and a few 1000 people paid $25 000 for it?

Nope! Zimbabwe does not justify the Bitcoin Price.

We're talking of the general bitcoin price globally not just Zimbabwe