Do the odds of other outcomes matter to you?

[kryptqnick]

I'm not sure how to explain my question properly, but it's just something I noticed that seems to matter to me in sports betting. So imagine match A and match B with the odds of the likeliest winner being approximately the same (say, 1.5). But in match A, the other two outcomes in 1x2 are also pretty likely (3.1 and 2.8, for instance), whereas in match B they are way less likely (5.2 and 6.5). So if you choose to bet on the likeliest winner, and the odds for that in match A and match B are very similar, does it matter to you what are the odds of other outcomes? I chose a couple of real examples to illustrate my point, although they are not perfectly similar and the odds are a bit different, but I hope you'll get what I'm talking about.
Here are the odds on Sportsbet.io for Chelsea vs Leeds United:

And there are the odds for Tottenham Hotspur vs Royal Antwerp:


The odds on the likeliest winner are almost the same, but other outcomes are a bit more likely in the first match than in the second (even accounting for the 0.1 difference in the odds).
So when you are placing bets, does this difference between the odds of the favorite and other outcomes matter to you?

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[alegotardo]

I would like to know how each house chooses its "favorites" ... is it just a mathematical probabilities?

I sincerely prefer to do my own analysis and ignore the "favorite", besides giving me a bigger reward I'm betting on what I believe, not just the most likely.

But I tend to lose bets almost always, so don't let my opinion influence you

[tyKiwanuka]

Doesn't really matter what the odds for the other outcomes are, since you should only look at the odds for the outcome you want to bet on. If we make probabilities out of the odds for Chelsea game, we have this:

Chelsea -> 1.46 = 68.49%
Draw -> 4.70 = 21.28%
Leeds -> 5.68 = 17.61%

This totals up to 107.38%, so Sportsbet's vig is 7.38% in this market.

Now if you consider to bet on Chelsea, the only thing you should look at is the 68.49%. If you think Chelsea has a higher probabilty of winning than that, you should bet on them. If you think it's lower, then not and you can probably check for draw/Leeds, if there is some value there. So, if you give Leeds 25%, then you should bet on them instead.

The hard thing is to calculate your own probabilities. The good thing though is, that you don't need precise numbers, you just need to figure out, if it's higher/lower than 68.49%.

[Sanitough]

Chelsea -> 1.36 = 68.49%
Draw -> 4.70 = 21.28%
Leeds -> 5.68 = 17.61%

This totals up to 107.38%, so Sportsbet's vig is 7.38% in this market.

I'm curious, how did you calculate this chances of winning, do you have a formula with that which you can share?

I know the odds, in sports betting but I don't really get how to compute the exact chances of every bet.

[o_e_l_e_o]

I'm curious, how did you calculate this chances of winning, do you have a formula with that which you can share?

It's just 100 divided by the odds. tyKiwanuka has made a typo and written 1.36 instead of 1.46 for Chelsea as shown in OP's picture, but otherwise, that's the calculation.

100/1.46 = 68.49%
100/4.7 = 21.28%
100/5.68 = 17.61%

This makes sense if you think about it logically. If we ignore the house edge or the casino's profit margins, and consider betting on a fair coin, then there is a 50/50 chance of win or lose. Your odds would be 2 - half the time you will double your stake, and half the time you will lose your stake. 100/2 = 50%.

[tyKiwanuka]

I'm curious, how did you calculate this chances of winning, do you have a formula with that which you can share?

Hehe, yes, it's no rocket science It's just this: Probabilty = 1/odds

1/1.46 = 0.68493
1/4.70 = 0.21276
1/5.68 = 0.17605

You can make a little Excel sheet with the above formulars and just put in the respective odds and have the (bookies/markets) probabilites in no time for lots of matches.



I would recommend to do your own analysis first and then afterwards compare it to the bookies probabilities. That way you are not biased

Edit: Thanks @o_e_l_e_o, my bad, corrected it.

[kryptqnick]

Thanks for sharing the calculations and introducing (if I got it right) another important thing: the bet margin. Of course, the odds aren't "pure" and there's some interest of the casino there with that part that goes over 100%. However, I fail to see how the first match differs from the second match in this aspect. Or is the point that the difference between outcomes is insignificant in comparison with the margin?

Tottenham vs Royal Antwerp would go like this (right?):
73.5+19.6+14.2=107.3 (approximately)

So the margin's the same in these cases, but the odds of the outcomes are still further apart in the second case, correct?

[tyKiwanuka]

So the margin's the same in these cases, but the odds of the outcomes are still further apart in the second case, correct?

The margin/vig is the same all the time, at least for certain leagues/sports. So you will always have these 107.xx% in EPL and probably in the other big leagues at Sportsbet. For niche/smalller leagues and sports it might be higher, since these markets are more risky for the bookmakers, so they want to have some extra protection. And in outright markets, you generally have lots of vig, because it's harder for the bookmakers to balance their books. In US sports otoh bookies tend to have quite low vig, since these are generally super perfect markets, so not very risky to work with small margins and you get a lot of action, so easy to balance your book.

The odds are further apart, because when you give Tottenham 73.53% (instead of 68.49% for Chelsea) there is less % to distribute on the other outcomes (draw/Antwerp). And the lower the probability, the higher the odds.

[palle11]

So when you are placing bets, does this difference between the odds of the favorite and other outcomes matter to you?

Yes it does to me. Odds some times can be used in analysing the likely winner of a match. Historically, you can check on the past games and times they have played and the odd  given to them. Many gamblers use the odd to monitor the games and it do fluctuates also. There are expected difference and if it goes beyond the usual, you can easily predict the outcome.

[john_nautica]

In my case odds really matter to me as it will dictate how much we can profit in a certain game that we would like to bet so I always consider in looking for the best odds to bet that is favoring my choices.

Even if they have only 0.1 difference in the odds, they still matter to me but with others I am not that sure if they are that keen to this small details as I saw some gamblers that are fine with whatever odds as long as they were able to bet in their favorite team. 

[iamsheikhadil]

I think it's more like having one diamond under one of three boxes and you get to choose one of them. Chances are 1/3. But then after you choose one, another box is opened and it's empty. Would you switch your chosen box?

If you do, your chances are 2/3 of hitting. But in the end, you have equal chances of hitting either of them. Which is 50-50.

So is 2/3=1/3? Nah. I think that's why other odds don't matter. Only the outcome of the single game matters most.

[KTChampions]

Naturally, if I do (this is not so) betting professionally, then this difference in the odds is very significant over a long distance. As far as I know, the fact that the odds for the favorite are underestimated, and the underdog is more or less fair, was discovered a long time ago. As for the differences for approximately the same pairs, bookmakers often slightly adjust the odds if betters make too many bets on one of the outcomes of the match. Thus, bookmakers are trying to return to a situation where they make a profit for any outcome of the match.

[FontSeli]

Hehe, yes, it's no rocket science It's just this: Probabilty = 1/odds

1/1.46 = 0.68493
1/4.70 = 0.21276
1/5.68 = 0.17605

You can make a little Excel sheet with the above formulars and just put in the respective odds and have the (bookies/markets) probabilites in no time for lots of matches.



I would recommend to do your own analysis first and then afterwards compare it to the bookies probabilities. That way you are not biased

For me, such a calculation is not difficult. However, the chance of occurrence of probability here is established in opinion of the bookmaker. I have always wondered how the bookmaker defines such probabilities. Of course, in this particular case I would also say that Chelsea is likely to win. However, I would not be able to determine the percentage of probability and set the right size of the odds. Bookmakers probably have much more complex formulas, quite close to rocket science. 

[Smartvirus]

They surely do. I play more of accumulated bets and these odds add up to make your expected outcome worth risking your money over so, every odd in the series really do matter. It not only helps in the aspect of being a boost to the odds but, it limits the number of games you've got to add to your accumulated bet and as such, it keeps you off the path of danger or risk.
I believe every gambler should or would have a range of odd for which, his or her expected outcome is expected to revolve around and as such, every odd matters, toe at least.

[ralle14]

For me sometimes it matters when the odds difference is big enough. If I really like an underdog and the bookies continue to underestimate them then I would grab the handicap if it goes the other way around then i'd take the favorite straight up. As tykiwanuka mentioned we calculate our own probabilities a small difference doesn't matter for the most part since we view certain favorites differently.

[CarnagexD]

I always take that into account as nothing in this industry would completrly be in favor to your requests. And with randomness in online gambling apparently not being random enough, it's no surprise these houses will choose a favorite among the crowd. So in order to minimize my losses, I always take these numbers into consideration and from there, I'll come up with an answer. Not to mention the cumulative bonus you get in some sites which is exactly what a house favoring you over others would look like.

[Russlenat]

For me, I would only compare the odds offer by a certain site to the other, but it should be on the same game, then I would choose the best odds and that matters. In your example, that's 2 different games so it does not really make me interested to analyze it, besides, I only bet on games that I think my best chances of winning is higher.

here's the sequence on how I see things.

Choose a game>check the odds> compare to other bookies>put a bet.

[Yamifoud]

For me, I would only compare the odds offer by a certain site to the other, but it should be on the same game, then I would choose the best odds and that matters. In your example, that's 2 different games so it does not really make me interested to analyze it, besides, I only bet on games that I think my best chances of winning is higher.

That is also what I did. If we have noticed that the best players/team will have that option and I choose the lower odds. If we base on what OP had shown to us, of course, I'll choose Chelsea over Leeds. But this not means that we are about at 100% sure we won, might just say 50-60% winning percentage IMO and base on my betting experience.

[magneto]

Your expected value at the end of the day should be relatively the same (assuming that you don't have information regarding the match that would result in you having an advantage over the house). As others have mentioned, these odds are entirely dependent on the projected probabilities and therefore price of each outcome.

So does it matter? Absolutely. You don't want to be betting on an event where there is significant spreads that leads to a very high house advantage -  that would be shooting yourself in the foot. And that can only be determined by looking at the payout and probabilities of each outcome of your 1x2 bet.

But I wouldn't pick the match that you bet on solely on odds of outcomes you don't bet on, because at the end of the day you are likely to have a disadvantage either way against the house (again, assuming no reliable tips). Pick the one that would give you more satisfaction if you win because after all, it's all entertainment.

[Wexnident]

I guess it doesn't? Well, as long as I don't need to bet on them, I don't think it would affect what my decision is. Though technically speaking the odds of what you want to bet on also depends on the other outcomes and vice versa, it doesn't really make sense that you're going to bet on A team winning and you'd be thinking what kind of influence a draw could have on your bet (ofc, other than the odds). And on that point, the two teams on are quite different from each other, so it's actually understandable that the odds for one point may be the same, but the others are different.

Still, I do my calculations on my own though I do use the probabilities presented by bookmakers as a reference to better clarify my own analysis.