TA gods, need your advice

[donlogan]

I've heard repeatedly that Q1 is historically a bad one for BTC. Do y'all see the same scenario playing out in 2021?

[1714765493]

1714765493

[palle11]

I think the beginning quarter of 2017 wasn't a dull time. It began with some positive move and ended with ATH. And IMO, 2021 has possibility of a good start because covid-19 at its peak in 2020 couldn't stop it.

[Sterbens]

I've heard repeatedly that Q1 is historically a bad one for BTC. Do y'all see the same scenario playing out in 2021?

no one can predict with accuracy. maybe some experts and analysts still monitor it first.
Q1 was the beginning where Bitcoin established its position as another crypto power.
Likewise with the many current assumptions that we often hear, it is still a mystery. Bitcoin always has its surprises. and every surprise that Bitcoin does always breaks the predictions of many people.

[chip1994]

This is entirely possible and because of this I sold all the ETH I held from $ 230. Although there are still a lot of people fomo about ETH over the coming days, I'm really quite worried because history never lied. Coming soon will be the Christmas and New Year holidays, when investors will soon sell their coins to have money and spend for the big holiday.
Every year has been like that and I think this year will be no exception when Bitcoin is still unable to get a new peak of ATH. It still suffered huge selling pressure when the price crashed to nearly $ 20k. That shows that the bears are still very crowded and could beat the bulls at any time.
So trade carefully at this stage, only trade with small amounts and place a stop loss. Never be subjective at sensitive times like this.

[ChrisPop]

At least for me, there is not enough history to even consider it as a trend. From a fundamental point of view - if we receive good news about the vaccine at the beginning of next year we might see more bullish action on both Bitcoin and stock markets. I'm sure taht the economy will have a tremendous boost when the pandemic will be near the end.

[cytpoway121]

I've heard repeatedly that Q1 is historically a bad one for BTC. Do y'all see the same scenario playing out in 2021?

Technical analyst are humans; humans are humans, there is no god anywhere; just expertise and sometimes the best analyst go wrong too. Quarter 1, 2, 3 or 4; bitcoin dips and take bull positions; how do you define historical bad? I will advise you continue to do your own research for your own capital safety.

[crzy]

I've heard repeatedly that Q1 is historically a bad one for BTC. Do y'all see the same scenario playing out in 2021?

We learned from the trend last 2017-2018 and we might be scared to see that again so many speculate that the market will go dump again but in reality, no one can tell what will be the trend for next year. Bitcoin is unpredictable, many are still positive for the trend next year so you’d better to have your own analysis and confirm it to yourself, Bitcoin wont stop for sure.

[seleme]

Human error or manual error may happen due to the price action driven by market participants. The cashout may happen due to the new year and the price can renounce around $15k but this is all speculation. There are lots of statistical variations on charts and the price formations can lead to temporary correction, not dump. The dump can cause a domino effect on the market but I am not sure the traders will handle the loss in case of a big dump. The variations will let us calculate the possibilities but at the end of the day, possibilities don't make money for us. That is why betting on each trade can turn to a profit instead of cracking head over the technical analysis for countless hours.

[nelson4lov]

I've heard repeatedly that Q1 is historically a bad one for BTC. Do y'all see the same scenario playing out in 2021?

I think it's completely normal to see the market take a different turn towards during the first half of the year. I mean, a lot of people would take profits from the top this Christmas just so they can have a lovely time with their friends and family.  It's no problem if it's just a one - 5 persons taking such action but hundreds if not thousands doing the same. Also the first half of the year is historically difficult so people tend to sell their assets. However, I'm not really sure we'll see a repeat this year considering we have a more solid momentum.

[GreatArkansas]

I think it's completely normal to see the market take a different turn towards during the first half of the year. I mean, a lot of people would take profits from the top this Christmas just so they can have a lovely time with their friends and family. 
(...)

This kind of reason may valid in previous years of Bitcoin existence, a lot of people also telling that before including me, like if there are more holidays, it may affect the price action Bitcoin, just like before the Chinese new year, "ghost month", the U.S. thanksgiving, and this time, the Christmas holidays and new year.

I'd rather much believe if we have data to use to identify, just like what OP said that it is 'historically', so if we compare the previous Q1 of every year, we can see some bear run on Bitcoin. But this time for me seems different, we are still accumulating below all-time-high, but if ever we the Q1 of 2021 will get worst, I will take it as a pullback or correction for this pretty bull run which we manage to reach the $19,000 levels.

[Kelvinid]

Probably not it goes like that, 1st and 2nd quarter is not the dumps that we don't want to happen.
Try to look at this last 2018, after the 2017 bullish ends.


source: https://www.coindesk.com/down-more-than-70-in-2018-bitcoin-closes-its-worst-year-on-record

Only it appears that the bearish season had come to the market at 3rd quarter until 1st quarter of 2019. This could possible that bearish will also appear once again late next year (2021), less possible during its 1st and 2nd quarter.

[donlogan]

I've heard repeatedly that Q1 is historically a bad one for BTC. Do y'all see the same scenario playing out in 2021?

Technical analyst are humans; humans are humans, there is no god anywhere; just expertise and sometimes the best analyst go wrong too. Quarter 1, 2, 3 or 4; bitcoin dips and take bull positions; how do you define historical bad? I will advise you continue to do your own research for your own capital safety.

Historically bad as in it's usually/more often than not the worst performing quarter for BTC.

Obviously I was being silly with the Gods comment. I'm trying to get an idea of what the TA folks are seeing vis-a-vis the current outlook in relation to Q1. IE. are the CURRENT charts/numbers/indicators similar to previous years where BTC ended up having a down Q1.

This thread is me doing part of my own research.

[donlogan]

Probably not it goes like that, 1st and 2nd quarter is not the dumps that we don't want to happen.
Try to look at this last 2018, after the 2017 bullish ends.

https://i.imgur.com/592QdNA.png
source: https://www.coindesk.com/down-more-than-70-in-2018-bitcoin-closes-its-worst-year-on-record

Only it appears that the bearish season had come to the market at 3rd quarter until 1st quarter of 2019. This could possible that bearish will also appear once again late next year (2021), less possible during its 1st and 2nd quarter.

Appreciate the information. Something to chew on as I sit here trying to plot out my next moves.

[Fatunad]

When it comes to TA Gods then there would be corresponding possible trail on where price can shoot up but basing off on how the market move into those previous years
then that do basically shows that technicals arent always precise.To presume that there are lots of people havent expected that 2017 bull run where it is already out of
their technical analysis or not anticipated.Same goes with those technicals made in 2018 that there would be some recovery in the end of the year and it didnt happen.
People didnt even anticipate that we would be heading 19k in 3 years time which do justifies that no one can precise predict on what would be the outcome or
next movement.

[donlogan]

When it comes to TA Gods then there would be corresponding possible trail on where price can shoot up but basing off on how the market move into those previous years
then that do basically shows that technicals arent always precise.To presume that there are lots of people havent expected that 2017 bull run where it is already out of
their technical analysis or not anticipated.Same goes with those technicals made in 2018 that there would be some recovery in the end of the year and it didnt happen.
People didnt even anticipate that we would be heading 19k in 3 years time which do justifies that no one can precise predict on what would be the outcome or
next movement.

Yes but the more history built up the more data points we have to make analysis with.

[BigBoy89]

I've heard repeatedly that Q1 is historically a bad one for BTC. Do y'all see the same scenario playing out in 2021?

I'm not a TA god, but still...

Currently, Bitcoin and all major cryptos are much more mature than a year ago, and a light years ahead of 2017. IMO the chances to see a bull run in Q1 2021 are much higher than to see a bear run.

If you feel insecure, you could always convert some of the coins to any of the stable coins.

[Silberman]

I've heard repeatedly that Q1 is historically a bad one for BTC. Do y'all see the same scenario playing out in 2021?

Even if it s true that bitcoin has not done especially well during the first quarter you must understand that this is a pattern that could be a complete fluke and it could mean nothing, it is better to not let preconceived notions about the market to colour your interpretations of it, just look at the charts and decide based on what you see if you think there is going to be an increase or decrease in the price, because the moment you begin to use that logic it is the moment you will begin to make mistakes because you are trading based on what you believe could happen and not in what it is actually happening.

[maydna]

When it comes to TA Gods then there would be corresponding possible trail on where price can shoot up but basing off on how the market move into those previous years
then that do basically shows that technicals arent always precise.To presume that there are lots of people havent expected that 2017 bull run where it is already out of
their technical analysis or not anticipated.Same goes with those technicals made in 2018 that there would be some recovery in the end of the year and it didnt happen.
People didnt even anticipate that we would be heading 19k in 3 years time which do justifies that no one can precise predict on what would be the outcome or
next movement.

Yes but the more history built up the more data points we have to make analysis with.

You can analyze based on history, but don't forget that bitcoin price movements will move differently than before, so you need to make more strategies or plans if they are not moving as you want. If you can't anticipate the bitcoin movements, you will not find a good time to buy and sell bitcoin. Perhaps, you will get more clues or signs from the history that will give you a chance to know where bitcoin will move. But still, be careful if you read the analysis from other people, and I suggest you analyze by yourself before you decide to buy or sell.

[bitterguy28]

I've heard repeatedly that Q1 is historically a bad one for BTC. Do y'all see the same scenario playing out in 2021?

From where have you Heard this repeatedly ?because i have only crossed one topic from the time you posted this and even before means this is not in this forum and also not in News crypto.

Market is more mature now,2017 is far different from 2020.

Invest with risk,if you are doubting then pass no one forces you,,

looking for TA but you are affected from hearsay,even how good TA gives to you yet attitude will decide your faith and future.

[XZERO1]

I've heard repeatedly that Q1 is historically a bad one for BTC. Do y'all see the same scenario playing out in 2021?

I think so, Bitcoin already had enough increase in price without almost any correction, it can still get another leg up till the end of the year or in the first or second month of 2021 but that got to be it and it has to go down for a while at some point.

I believe there would be no dump or crash or anything like that though, just some correction maybe to about $13k-$14k, and from then it would depend on many other factors including how is the situation with pandemic and SPX/USD, over all to keep it short I think Bitcoin will stay up at least as long as the pandemic is not totally over and SPX is up like now.