Bitcoin Forum
May 05, 2024, 09:14:52 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 2 3 [4]  All
  Print  
Author Topic: How do you manage Bitcoin price risk?  (Read 782 times)
as.exchange (OP)
Copper Member
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 140
Merit: 51

as.exchange


View Profile WWW
December 26, 2020, 10:04:39 AM
 #61

For what I did when I do trade in different platform exchange is that I applied Technical analysis, watching the resistance from time to time,
and sometimes hold or day trade. Aside from this methods, I looked up also in the volume and for the buy support. Due to in this way I could have a chance to earn in the future, just be patient only.

May I know please for how long you have been trading like that, and how much you earned net of spreads, trading fees, inflation, etc.? And even better if you could share Sharpe Ratio, Beta, Treynor, alpha, stdev, max drawdown, return range, median, etc. - then we could see how profitable that actually was Smiley

1714900492
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1714900492

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1714900492
Reply with quote  #2

1714900492
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
1714900492
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1714900492

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1714900492
Reply with quote  #2

1714900492
Report to moderator
1714900492
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1714900492

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1714900492
Reply with quote  #2

1714900492
Report to moderator
darewaller
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 2800
Merit: 634


View Profile
December 26, 2020, 06:02:08 PM
 #62

People will always want free money, that is in their nature, and I understand in some situations but you have to find the difference between the silly one and reasonable one.

For example, USA government is giving away money to people, that sort of makes sense, I think instead of giving money they should have actually do it reverse and pay everyone's debt, that would have been a lot better, and that way you would have to talk with less people, just the ones that are owed and you would pay more money in logic because people have a lot of debt, but you would at least get a discount compared to individuals who would do it one by one. Pay their rents, pay their bills, pay their mortgages, basically pay all the debt they have, when someone has zero debt, even if you do not give them any money at all, they would probably survive. But if you give them money, they would not be even capable of paying their debt fully and would still be at zero.
as.exchange (OP)
Copper Member
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 140
Merit: 51

as.exchange


View Profile WWW
December 27, 2020, 09:46:19 AM
 #63

People will always want free money, that is in their nature, and I understand in some situations but you have to find the difference between the silly one and reasonable one.

For example, USA government is giving away money to people, that sort of makes sense, I think instead of giving money they should have actually do it reverse and pay everyone's debt, that would have been a lot better, and that way you would have to talk with less people, just the ones that are owed and you would pay more money in logic because people have a lot of debt, but you would at least get a discount compared to individuals who would do it one by one. Pay their rents, pay their bills, pay their mortgages, basically pay all the debt they have, when someone has zero debt, even if you do not give them any money at all, they would probably survive. But if you give them money, they would not be even capable of paying their debt fully and would still be at zero.

I believe you made a really great point! But that can be a totally different topic for discussion. That concerns more monetary vs. fiscal policies in relation to overall economy vs. targeted stimulus. For example in USA, yes, they just handle free money to everyone and did achieve a minor economic stimulus, but in China they didn't do that (even though Chinese economy was also not in the best shape after COVID-19 lockdowns early in the year), but instead what they did - they did very targeted stimulus. For example: entertainment industry (like theatres, cinemas, etc.)? - let it go bankrupt if it has to and cannot survive on its own - not a big deal; SMEs, BioTech, new Tech, and e-commerce? - support them and give super cheap loans, and all kinds of subsidies (especially to BioTech and MedTech - it's super crazy now here about this). Was that a good or bad decision in short-term? - As we see already it was a good one. Was it a good or bad decision in long-term? - We need to wait and see.

But speaking about the option of debt repayment for people I see both the good side and bad side about that though. The good side is as you mentioned - people get a huge relief and can have normal life. The bad side - 1) people will not learn from their mistakes, so once you pay off their current debt, they will get new ones, and history will repeat, 2) I as an average American, might not have issues about my debt (no matter how big it is), and would rather get free money and invest in US stocks or Bitcoin (best option Cheesy), if I am intelligent enough, and I could pay off even greater part of my own debt. And of course from conspirologist side - I would want to keep people indebted (modern slavery), would know that I get this money back anyways (since most people just go to waste that money by buying useless things), and add some dopamine to their minds so they will spend even more than what they received. So from that perspective, just handing free money is not the best, or nicest option, but it's the most optimal for society and for the ones above (I think, but my decision is by no mean is the final or the most correct one).

roadrunnerjaiv2025
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 122
Merit: 20


View Profile
December 27, 2020, 10:16:17 AM
 #64

Quote
People always miss the fact that noone who has ever bought bitcoin in a dip lost any money. Those who lose money are the ones buying the top (specially in bubbles) and have to face the bubble burst (like buying at $20k in 2017 and face the 2 year long bear market).

Totally agree. That's why one of my personal rules when trading is to be patient not just when waiting for the value to rise but also when waiting for it to plummet and exhaust. If you want to earn money through trading, you have to take the time to monitor the changes. You can't just keep holding without checking the charts regularly, especially if it's already nearing the exhaustion point. Otherwise, you might as well just hire an investment manager, which will cost you a lot of money.
DevilSlayer
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1400
Merit: 357


View Profile
December 27, 2020, 12:57:40 PM
 #65

Some people simply ignoring market swings and just forever HODLBTC; with BTC price volatility, it's not that pleasant to see that today you have $1k in BTC, tomorrow it's $10k, and then $500...

Holding is the most effective way to manage the risk the volatality of the market brings but it isn't as easy as many people make it seem, the example you used above is a perfect scenario (although highly exaggerated) of what holders go through especially as you can't totally ignored the market as the news is always in your face. Every price movement is been discussed which makes you always monitoring your portfolio. The altcoins market is what could possibly give you the example you highlighted.

In crypto, everything is uncertain. And it depends on how we manage the assets that we have. I myself am still focused on being able to control my emotions and also do not easily believe all predictions especially those that don't make sense.

Not everything, the fact that the market moves in cycle of ups and down is certain and with that knowledge you can work on the perfect strategy to deployed in managing of your risk assuming you're not into the idea of holding.
For me it is not about holding, it is about understanding the charts. What if you do holding but the trend is against your bias then for sure you will incur huge losses. Remember that there are right time to do holding and it is only applicable when the market is trending. In order to manage the risk very well, you should have edge or what they called niche. The edge is all about mastery of a specific strategy for example you are a swing trader; do not force your self to do scalping or momentum trading. You should use the strategy that is suitable to you in order for you to have good risk management.
as.exchange (OP)
Copper Member
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 140
Merit: 51

as.exchange


View Profile WWW
December 28, 2020, 10:31:22 AM
 #66

Totally agree. That's why one of my personal rules when trading is to be patient not just when waiting for the value to rise but also when waiting for it to plummet and exhaust. If you want to earn money through trading, you have to take the time to monitor the changes. You can't just keep holding without checking the charts regularly, especially if it's already nearing the exhaustion point. Otherwise, you might as well just hire an investment manager, which will cost you a lot of money.

Great point. As to my knowledge that's how our CEO was able to buy BTC @ $1.6k and later in 2018 sell it @ around $19.5-19.8k. Without monitoring it could end at $10k already (nearly 10x return which is very good), but it didn't. And as you correctly noted, the investment managers nowadays are not that useful but super overpriced.



For me it is not about holding, it is about understanding the charts. What if you do holding but the trend is against your bias then for sure you will incur huge losses. Remember that there are right time to do holding and it is only applicable when the market is trending. In order to manage the risk very well, you should have edge or what they called niche. The edge is all about mastery of a specific strategy for example you are a swing trader; do not force your self to do scalping or momentum trading. You should use the strategy that is suitable to you in order for you to have good risk management.

What you refer to is about investment horizon as well, which is dependent and relates to the investment strategy. Once could invest in BTC @ $10, and just hold until today... imagine how much they would earn Cheesy but that's more from investment side I assume, rather than trading as it is. But my personal opinion (in line with EMH) is that by looking at charts won't give any advantage at all - you look at the same thing with everyone, and there are way smarter people who interpret what others think by looking at charts. And the smartest ones go even further by considering what others think what others think by looking at charts. But just looking and analyzing data/charts which is known literally to everyone in the world won't typically yield in sustainable alpha over long-periods of time.



Yes, I really agree with you, because hiring an investment manager is an unpleasant choice too in my opinion, because besides spending a lot of money it also makes us a little complicated in knowing the assets we have, so it is very clear that you must always take the time to monitor chart changes and market conditions by ourselves.

True, besides as you might have seen some charts posted around that "smart money isn't that smart anymore" - professional IMs fail to outperform retail investors in 2020, which might be their beginning of an end.

TheGreatPython
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 2520
Merit: 329



View Profile
December 28, 2020, 04:02:34 PM
 #67

Bitcoin is risky, it is also very volatile, this also goes for all the other crypto currencies as well. You have to just learn to live with that and there isn't much you can do. Even if you do everything in your power and drop the risk as low as possible, it is still riskier than most other things. Which is why I think it is quite important for you to realize crypto will always be risky and get involved fully aware of that.

I am not saying people can go 100x leverage their positions and hope for the best, that would be riskier than normal, but even with DCA and buying periodically to drop the risk, you are going to still have big pumps and big crashes here and there, a DCA during 2018 would still be a loss, but would be a huge win right now. So basically you have to just drop the risk to regular standards and just wait for the price to go up.

       ███████████████▄▄
    ██████████████████████▄
  ██████████████████████████▄
 ███████   ▀████████▀   ████▄
██████████    █▀  ▀    ██████▄
███████████▄▄▀  ██  ▀▄▄████████
███████████          █████████
███████████▀▀▄  ██  ▄▀▀████████
██████████▀   ▀▄  ▄▀   ▀██████▀
 ███████  ▄██▄████▄█▄  █████▀
  ██████████████████████████▀
    ██████████████████████▀
       ███████████████▀▀
.
Duelbits
███████████████████████████████████████████████    ████    ████    ████
████    ████    ████

.
THE MOST REWARDING CASINO
.
████    ████
███████████████    ████    ████
   ▄▄▄▄████▀███▄▄▄▄▄
▄███▄▀▄██▄   ▄██▄▀▄███▄
████▄█▄███▄█▄███▄█▄████
███████████████████████   ▄██▄
██     ██     ██     ██   ▀██▀
██ ▀▀█ ██ ▀▀█ ██ ▀▀█ ██    ██
██  █  ██  █  ██  █  ██
█▌  ██
██     ██     ██     ████  ██
█████████████████████████  ██
████████████████████████████▀
█████████████████████████
█████████████████████████
████████████████████████▌
     +4,000     
PROVABLY FAIR
GAMES
  $500,000 
MONTHLY
PRIZE POOL
    $10,000   
BLACKJACK
GIVEAWAY
as.exchange (OP)
Copper Member
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 140
Merit: 51

as.exchange


View Profile WWW
December 28, 2020, 05:58:00 PM
 #68

Bitcoin is risky, it is also very volatile, this also goes for all the other crypto currencies as well. You have to just learn to live with that and there isn't much you can do. Even if you do everything in your power and drop the risk as low as possible, it is still riskier than most other things. Which is why I think it is quite important for you to realize crypto will always be risky and get involved fully aware of that.

I am not saying people can go 100x leverage their positions and hope for the best, that would be riskier than normal, but even with DCA and buying periodically to drop the risk, you are going to still have big pumps and big crashes here and there, a DCA during 2018 would still be a loss, but would be a huge win right now. So basically you have to just drop the risk to regular standards and just wait for the price to go up.

You are right, but what about derivatives? For example by holding a portfolio of options+spot BTC, or futures/swaps+spot BTC, or even better - holding only tranched value securities, you can by yourself decide what amount of price risk to take, and whether it's upside risk or downside risk, or market-neutral risk. From my experience and to my knowledge, people who use financial derivatives can really fine-tune expected returns and without any hassle watch the price to drop or increase - they are in profit anyways, or at least don't lose anything.



managing the risk so as not to experience a lot of losses in bitcoin is quite difficult,
that is by using the stoplose feature if you are a trader, and the second is to buy back when the price decreases.

Very true - many inexperienced traders ignore SL&TP features and just blow their accounts very quickly for no reason.

Pages: « 1 2 3 [4]  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!