The volatility in the price of a bitcoin is falling over time, or not.

[RealMalatesta]

It is logical that volatility decreased over time and that it will even further decrease in upcoming years. But still I am surprised Bitcoin is still so volatile. Emission is very predictable. Most markets where Bitcoin s traded are regulated. I guess it still needs time. 12 years was just to little of time. 

I think the volatility is what makes it unique because the stock market is there for those who just want to play with small deviations in the market. Bitcoin is volatile and to an extent it is even controlled by whales. But those whales are getting lesser and lesser each time one dumps and the market swallow their BTC slowly.

The price is really high right now which makes me feel that it will swing a lot in coming time until a point where the demand and supply is actually even and there are no big holders in the market. What makes me feel like this is the fact that how suddenly it rises so much and I know adoption has increased but we are talking about 5x growth which can't be natural, if we consider it was 10k a few months ago.

Happy for holders and I don't mind BTC being 100k but better that happens naturally and slowly.

[Dragonfund]

Everyone claim to be an expert in crypto when the going is good but when the trend becomes difficult and hard to predict, many becomes silent.
I have heard this in last 2020, but I was wondering how the volatility came back during the pandemic market sell off. The market was so volatile that crashes lots of price in Binance exchange.
We can no longer experience volatility because only few bitcoin are left for trading as lots of investors and traders are just holding and looking towards increasing price of bitcoin. I'm very certain that it will return as soon as we enter bear market. Many institutions will move out their money because the bear last in my opinion.

[Oilacris]

Everyone claim to be an expert in crypto when the going is good but when the trend becomes difficult and hard to predict, many becomes silent.
I have heard this in last 2020, but I was wondering how the volatility came back during the pandemic market sell off. The market was so volatile that crashes lots of price in Binance exchange.
We can no longer experience volatility because only few bitcoin are left for trading as lots of investors and traders are just holding and looking towards increasing price of bitcoin. I'm very certain that it will return as soon as we enter bear market. Many institutions will move out their money because the bear last in my opinion.

Hahaha this is true and indeed a real talk.When the markets is mooning then there are lots of speculations that are floating or can be seen around but if we are on a
bearish situation then everyone is really on silent or you can read up some sentiment but saying Bitcoin would be come $0.

Everybody does have its own sentiment towards the market and neither we do choose to believe or follow it or would simply make our own and
tend to observe on what others been saying.

For now bitcoins price is stabilizing above 50k which neither it do signify that we would be hitting up 60k soon or would have major correction.No one knows!

[oHnK]

I don't mind BTC being 100k but better that happens naturally and slowly.

Yes, it really hurts if the price increases so instantaneously that it reaches the level of 100k USD but instead drops to no value.  Whatever is instant has no resistance.  Likewise, the current BTC price is so vulnerable to negative issues that it has collapsed from the top.  I expected this price to move more naturally and not to impress a ponzi scheme.

[virasisog]

I guess institutional investors played a huge part in it, compared to the last bull-market,  this one stayed longer and it seems it is just about to start. Whenever there is a correction it recovers fast, not to mention the number of institutions considering using crypto as a hedge. It is somehow scary as the price of BTC soars, we could expect a massive fall of it once the bull-market is over. I wonder how instituinal investors will react on this.

[Nunoluck]

I think the biggest factor that caused this is the growing number of bitcoin users. In the past most of bitcoin users are traders who can make extreme price volatility but now more people and business who use bitcoin as medium of payment. Many new people come to buy bitcoin when there is panic selling. When more people come to get involved in bitcoin market it can reduce the price fluctuations. I think this condition is very good for early adopters because the demand keep increase while they already have a lot of amount of bitcoin.

[Inkdatar]

I think the biggest factor that caused this is the growing number of bitcoin users. In the past most of bitcoin users are traders who can make extreme price volatility but now more people and business who use bitcoin as medium of payment. Many new people come to buy bitcoin when there is panic selling. When more people come to get involved in bitcoin market it can reduce the price fluctuations. I think this condition is very good for early adopters because the demand keep increase while they already have a lot of amount of bitcoin.

This is called the adoption is growing that’s why more number of users are adopting bitcoin. If we also observe some institutions are investing in bitcoin which creates demand in this industry. Also the most question now until when we can see this bull run. So the volatility is just normal as we see the market is good because many users are enjoying the current status of bitcoin.

[shoreno]

I think the biggest factor that caused this is the growing number of bitcoin users. In the past most of bitcoin users are traders who can make extreme price volatility but now more people and business who use bitcoin as medium of payment. Many new people come to buy bitcoin when there is panic selling. When more people come to get involved in bitcoin market it can reduce the price fluctuations. I think this condition is very good for early adopters because the demand keep increase while they already have a lot of amount of bitcoin.

but there are still btc traders today and the number of them have grewed compare to the past and what is the difference of the people or company if they use btc as a medium of payment because their btc are still going to get emptied and they are still going to buy another btc again . the condition is beneficial for all and not just for early adopters because if price volaitlity are reduced , new adopters wont get scared anymore that price might fall after they got in and they can also earn something

[AndySt]

It seems like I'm not the only one who thinks like that, I have felt it since a month ago and see it looks like bitcoin volatility has really decreased in balance with the price of bitcoin which reached the price of $ 55k. this may be very good for the development of bitcoin in the future

I would still strongly recommend not to rush to conclusions and make long-term forecasts on the volatility of bitcoin, because there are still a lot of positive factors for the exchange rate of bitcoin and it is not a fact that this will continue if the source of good news runs out. Still, previous history should teach caution in such matters, and the growth at the end and beginning of the year last time was replaced by a long-term decline.

[TheGreatPython]

I updated the graph. It now shows the recent increasing volatility. Despite the recent volatility, the trend is still falling.

Thanks for keeping it updated because although not everyone understands but it is an extremely important factor when we evaluate the Bitcoin market, how much is the volatility now in the market as compared to earlier. With any asset the volatility should go down gradually and that is exactly what is happening which are promising signs for investors and holders alike.

It is logical that volatility decreased over time and that it will even further decrease in upcoming years. But still I am surprised Bitcoin is still so volatile. Emission is very predictable. Most markets where Bitcoin s traded are regulated. I guess it still needs time. 12 years was just to little of time. 

12 years is from the time bitcoin was made but if you actually talk about the popularity of bitcoins it has surged in recent 2-3 years and last year was already wasted in corona virus and its dreadful impact collapsed the market.

[Kong Hey Pakboy]

I think the biggest factor that caused this is the growing number of bitcoin users. In the past most of bitcoin users are traders who can make extreme price volatility but now more people and business who use bitcoin as medium of payment. Many new people come to buy bitcoin when there is panic selling. When more people come to get involved in bitcoin market it can reduce the price fluctuations. I think this condition is very good for early adopters because the demand keep increase while they already have a lot of amount of bitcoin.

I also think that might be the case. As a person who have seen bitcoin's proce before a long time ago it kinda discourages me that there are only few people who knows of this great cryptocurrency and it should not be a waste. It will really benefit old users and of course newbies who recently invested in bitcoin because if it's not that volatile, then users will not bother if the price goes down than we have expected.

[redsun114]

I would still strongly recommend not to rush to conclusions and make long-term forecasts on the volatility of bitcoin, because there are still a lot of positive factors for the exchange rate of bitcoin and it is not a fact that this will continue if the source of good news runs out. Still, previous history should teach caution in such matters, and the growth at the end and beginning of the year last time was replaced by a long-term decline.

Rightly said and if someone asked me how I feel about the price being so high, I would obviously feel good about the current market price but at the same time I will like the volatility to go reduce more if even at the cost of drop in the prices.

Look as a long term investor and believer of bitcoins, I always felt that the real value comes from adoption and the only way adoption occurs is by having more and more sellers accepting Bitcoins which can only happen when there is a stability in price of bitcoins, small movement bothers no one but when the market can double or half itself within a matter of months it certainly makes people afraid accepting bitcoins as a payment option.

More stability means lesser volatility and hence more acceptance and adoption for Bitcoins which ultimately lifts the value and price of bitcoin which stays for long time.

[qwertyup23]

<snip..>

This is a very interesting chart to look at and people should take advantage while the price of bitcoin is in the dip.

By basing it primarily on the price history index, the price of bitcoin has been always volatile- thus, it may increase/decrease at any given time. Currently, the price of bitcoin is in the dip and I personally believe that people should purchase and HODL bitcoin for the time being. Give it maybe after 4-5 years, the price may actually increase like what has happened in the past 5-6 years ever since its inception.

[BuNga_cute]

I am optimistic that in the future the volatility in the price of a Bitcoin will be even lower, this is because more and more companies are investing
large amounts for long-term investment. Make the Bitcoin price a little more stable, especially with the current price of Bitcoin, the price is very high.
Makes many investors choose to hold Bitcoin, because of that, even though there is a current correction. Prices fell slowly and were less volatile.

[pankowri]

Maximum of time it occurs with BTC not only BTC but also all the cryptocurrencies because it's the main nature of the crypto world. There is nothing stable in the crypto world so users feel insecure every time. Through this is volatile so there are no guarantees to fix value and price will make the profit or loss. After the rise, a much higher position price can befall immediately or slowly but now time BTC passing a good day that there are low chances to fall rapidly.

[Nikola95]

Actually I think it is to early to say that volatiity is falling. Compared to few years ago yes, but let's wait new bear market that is obviously coming, and let's see current volatility. I'm sure it's going to stay pretty high.

[odolvlobo]

Actually I think it is to early to say that volatility is falling.

Yet, the long-term trend clearly shows that it is falling. Do you believe that the trend will reverse, or are you referring to the short-term volatility, which is shown to be rising.

[AndySt]

If to take to account some factors, this graphic becomes logical. Last several months we observed how the price per BTC surged over $50 000 because lots of whale investors entered huge amounts of money into this "game" and prefer to hodl BTC to see how their wealth grows. There's also an army of noobs who wants BTC to stay over 50 and buy it regularly. So it will be really very hard to drop BTC drastically now. Only time will tell us whether it’s whether that's possible or not.

The most important thing is that the games of such investors do not lead to a long-term downtrend. Because a greater impact on volatility factor asset may have not time itself, and the too rapid growth of the course price of the asset when investors throwing all caution at first, trying to jump onto a departing car and then frantically disposing of the asset is trying to avoid even greater losses.

[Reatim]

Everyone claim to be an expert in crypto when the going is good but when the trend becomes difficult and hard to predict, many becomes silent.
I have heard this in last 2020, but I was wondering how the volatility came back during the pandemic market sell off. The market was so volatile that crashes lots of price in Binance exchange.
We can no longer experience volatility because only few bitcoin are left for trading as lots of investors and traders are just holding and looking towards increasing price of bitcoin. I'm very certain that it will return as soon as we enter bear market. Many institutions will move out their money because the bear last in my opinion.

We are now in almost Bearish market because the price cuts down to more than 15% of the ATH so what we are looking here now?
is this nothing about volatility ?
and considering that Many investors now is at the Holding stage meaning those who sells recently are just small traders ? i doubt it is because the fraction is High that means there are whales that sells down their holding for what reason ? and that is to shaken the market and see how many weak hands will sell for them to buy more when the price fell down to 30,000 level things that they might be failing because we are now knowledgeable of their strategy and they cannot fool people now in crypto specially those Bitcoin Supporters.

[redsun114]

I am optimistic that in the future the volatility in the price of a Bitcoin will be even lower, this is because more and more companies are investing large amounts for long-term investment. Make the Bitcoin price a little more stable, especially with the current price of Bitcoin, the price is very high.

As much I want BTC to be accepted in more and more places which ultimately is gained by a more stable price, I actually cherish the fact that BTC market has high volatility which separates it from the stock market and other trading markets and a low volatility BTC market will lose its identity, I am afraid.

Actually I think it is to early to say that volatiity is falling. Compared to few years ago yes, but let's wait new bear market that is obviously coming, and let's see current volatility. I'm sure it's going to stay pretty high.

I don't think BTC is losing its volatility because we had the price of bitcoin 5x within an year and that doesn't show stability at all. I know its a positive thing but in the context of stability, we can't say that's achieved or even happening anytime soon. And I love it .