The volatility in the price of a bitcoin is falling over time, or not.

[odolvlobo]

Updated 2022-02-24

[DrBeer]

By the way, I thought - if the volatility becomes commensurate with fiat stable currencies (as far as possible) - the cryptocurrency will disappear, in fact, a completely speculative component, and interest in the crypt will decrease to the level of fiat stock brokers who trade on currency exchanges ... And this means a decline in interest , a decrease in investment attractiveness and no more huge x's in the price

[Argoo]

By the way, I thought - if the volatility becomes commensurate with fiat stable currencies (as far as possible) - the cryptocurrency will disappear, in fact, a completely speculative component, and interest in the crypt will decrease to the level of fiat stock brokers who trade on currency exchanges ... And this means a decline in interest , a decrease in investment attractiveness and no more huge x's in the price

Most likely, the high price volatility of the cryptocurrency will always remain. Its volatility cannot fall so much as to even approximately approach the fiat of states in terms of level. Indeed, unlike other markets, the cryptocurrency market is not regulated, and the price of a cryptocurrency depends entirely on the relationship between supply and demand. In addition, in my opinion, with an increase in the price of cryptocurrencies, the amplitude of price fluctuations will also increase. We can clearly see this in the example of bitcoin.

[DrBeer]

By the way, I thought - if the volatility becomes commensurate with fiat stable currencies (as far as possible) - the cryptocurrency will disappear, in fact, a completely speculative component, and interest in the crypt will decrease to the level of fiat stock brokers who trade on currency exchanges ... And this means a decline in interest , a decrease in investment attractiveness and no more huge x's in the price

Most likely, the high price volatility of the cryptocurrency will always remain. Its volatility cannot fall so much as to even approximately approach the fiat of states in terms of level. Indeed, unlike other markets, the cryptocurrency market is not regulated, and the price of a cryptocurrency depends entirely on the relationship between supply and demand. In addition, in my opinion, with an increase in the price of cryptocurrencies, the amplitude of price fluctuations will also increase. We can clearly see this in the example of bitcoin.

I partly agree with your opinion. But not with everything...

Volatility is not a derivative of cryptocurrency. Volatility arises due to the fact that cryptocurrency, at least TODAY, is an unsecured bubble that has no real security and value, i.e. exclusively speculative. That is why its price is "jumping". I do not know of any other asset that is in demand and has a real value, which would change its value and demand in such a way, for no apparent and logical reasons.

Oil can be cited as an example - the price has also changed over the decades. BUT ! Demand did not change, consumption was and remains regular and even growing. And no speculative campaign manipulates oil like this.

Therefore, the price increase is artificially inflated. Although I do not deny that before the "curtailment" of the speculative component of the crypto market, bitcoin can show 1-3 more waves, and someone will even make good money

[Wind_FURY]

Updated 2022-02-24

How high are the probabilties that Bitcoin's volatility during the next main bull market surge will be higher than the last bull market's main surge? Because the next bull market will that be because of a monetary expansion by the Federal Reserve, and a lowering of interest rates, there's some probability that we might see a Bitcoin bull cycle like 2015 - 2017 again. Debatable, BUT possible.

[Davian144]

Most likely, the high price volatility of the cryptocurrency will always remain. Its volatility cannot fall so much as to even approximately approach the fiat of states in terms of level. Indeed, unlike other markets, the cryptocurrency market is not regulated, and the price of a cryptocurrency depends entirely on the relationship between supply and demand. In addition, in my opinion, with an increase in the price of cryptocurrencies, the amplitude of price fluctuations will also increase. We can clearly see this in the example of bitcoin.

I also agree with what you said, that the price of cryptocurrencies always depends on demand and supply in the market, even though market reactions are not regulated by anyone at any given moment. And for volatility and price fluctuations, that will always happen as long as demand and supply are always in the market at all times. And for this year I think there will still be a lot of demand and supply for currencies like Bitcoin so that price changes that are so fast will still occur frequently in currencies like Bitcoin

[lixer]

By the way, I thought - if the volatility becomes commensurate with fiat stable currencies (as far as possible) - the cryptocurrency will disappear, in fact, a completely speculative component, and interest in the crypt will decrease to the level of fiat stock brokers who trade on currency exchanges ... And this means a decline in interest , a decrease in investment attractiveness and no more huge x's in the price

Most likely, the high price volatility of the cryptocurrency will always remain. Its volatility cannot fall so much as to even approximately approach the fiat of states in terms of level. Indeed, unlike other markets, the cryptocurrency market is not regulated, and the price of a cryptocurrency depends entirely on the relationship between supply and demand. In addition, in my opinion, with an increase in the price of cryptocurrencies, the amplitude of price fluctuations will also increase. We can clearly see this in the example of bitcoin.

Volatility rates can sometimes depend on the market condition. If in these bearish times, I think price of the coins are more stable but not if we are in a bullish mode. Fiats are stable but cryptos are not but even if let say they will also be stable forever, I still think that they will remain because they can still offer other benefits which are not found in fiats.

One example would be the anonymity. Other than the supply and demand, there are other factors which can affect the price of the cryptos. They can be the Wars, FUDs, and Crypto Frauds. This makes them harder to predict but this also gives us a thrill. It's not that boring compared to other assets out there.

[fillippone]

The volatility of traditional markets is quite subdued lately, while bitcoin is rising in volatility. This decouples means Bitcoin trade less like a traditional asset than expected.

[Ozero]

I agree, bitcoin price volatility from year to year seems to have the same pattern. where if you have experienced the halving, the decrease will occur significantly.
but we also need to pay attention to how from year to year the supply of bitcoin will be increasingly scarce and scarce. This shows that even though the price of bitcoin has decreased, the potential for increase in the years will decrease and cannot be prevented any longer.

As a percentage, it is possible that bitcoin has the same degree of volatility, and even then, not always. In different periods, depending on many factors, its price volatility will change. But as for the volatility of its price in relation to fiat, there is a tendency here that the higher the price of bitcoin rises, the higher its price volatility manifests itself. I do not see any factors that could stop the high price volatility of bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general in the future.

[Unbunplease]

As the price of the asset increases, the percentage of volatility becomes smaller and smaller, and it becomes more and more difficult to make money on it. Later on, this asset is either abandoned or it becomes an analog of Stablecoin. Although I don't rule out that there may be a new variant of bitcoin, and there may be an exchange of the old variant of bitcoin for the new one.

[Mario Yamasaki]

Anyone will be interested in bitcoin because of the very good price fluctuations, the whales know the pattern that can happen, they will pump in the hope of getting other people to buy while they are selling, and when the price drops, many sell and they buy, bitcoin price fluctuations can be a means of earning large profits.

[bangjoe]

I agree, bitcoin price volatility from year to year seems to have the same pattern. where if you have experienced the halving, the decrease will occur significantly.
but we also need to pay attention to how from year to year the supply of bitcoin will be increasingly scarce and scarce. This shows that even though the price of bitcoin has decreased, the potential for increase in the years will decrease and cannot be prevented any longer.

As a percentage, it is possible that bitcoin has the same degree of volatility, and even then, not always. In different periods, depending on many factors, its price volatility will change. But as for the volatility of its price in relation to fiat, there is a tendency here that the higher the price of bitcoin rises, the higher its price volatility manifests itself. I do not see any factors that could stop the high price volatility of bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general in the future.

If I notice that the price of bitcoin is getting more and more tapered over time both increasing and decreasing, you will find that if you look at the circle of candles that are adjusted to the price rainbow in bitcoin's journey. Yes, even though basically if you look at it from a price point of view, the higher the price of bitcoin, the greater the fluctuation in its price, because it is only natural that this conclusion is created if you look at the price developments in bitcoin every cycle, but if you look at the journey of the candle, the increase in the price of bitcoin is even more conical, the percentage increase in making new ATH the bitcoin price is getting smaller and vice versa in finding the bottom point in a price cycle.

[FirmWars]

Ladies and gentlemen, we are already going sideways, it has began, if you are still doubting to buy some Bitcoin now is the right time, Bitcoin is going to surprise many people this 2023, grab your bag before its too late, in April, everything is going to change, Mark my word.

[fillippone]

Ladies and gentlemen, we are already going sideways, it has began, if you are still doubting to buy some Bitcoin now is the right time, Bitcoin is going to surprise many people this 2023, grab your bag before its too late, in April, everything is going to change, Mark my word.

Sideways can be coupled with volatility, and going up can be characterised by low volatility.
In a technical way volatility is noise around the mean trend. The trade can be flat (sideways) of going up.
In both situations we can have high or low volatility.

[Hamphser]

Ladies and gentlemen, we are already going sideways, it has began, if you are still doubting to buy some Bitcoin now is the right time, Bitcoin is going to surprise many people this 2023, grab your bag before its too late, in April, everything is going to change, Mark my word.

Sideways can be coupled with volatility, and going up can be characterised by low volatility.
In a technical way volatility is noise around the mean trend. The trade can be flat (sideways) of going up.
In both situations we can have high or low volatility.

And on this time, this is where confusion and doubts would be raised up specially on the time that the price is moving sideways and have that minimal volatility on which you couldn't really tell on where it would possibly go next. Yes, we could make use of technicals which had been commonly where traders been used on where we could assume and presume out on where it would be heading but since we do know that TA's arent always precise then its not always that been bad to make out some back up plans if the initial plan wasnt been able to followed out.

This is the importance on having that self acceptance on the time you do step your foot into this market on which there's no way that we could be able to know on what are the things ahead.
There's no way to determine in speaking about volatility aspect.

[fillippone]

This is the importance on having that self acceptance on the time you do step your foot into this market on which there's no way that we could be able to know on what are the things ahead.
There's no way to determine in speaking about volatility aspect.

Volatility in the short term is a very relevant aspect.
For example think about trading strategies taking into account volatility and drift:

Extracting stable positive return from high-volatile asset.HF recipe made simple

But if you invest in the long run, volatility becomes irrelevant.


All is about your time horizon.

[Unbunplease]

As the price increases, the volatility of the asset - as a percentage - decreases; it becomes more "heavyweight" because of the money invested in it. Bitcoin is unlikely to be an exception to this rule. Of course, the question will arise here - will it retain its investment attractiveness in this case

[concept2]

The following chart shows the volatility in the price of a bitcoin since the beginning. Each point shows the coefficient of variation for the year or month surrounding that date.

The coefficient of variation is a measure of volatility. It is the standard deviation relative to the mean.

Previously, I stated that the volatility is falling over time. If you look at long-term graph, that seems to be the case as the price is no longer rising as quickly as it was many years ago.

However, the volatility as measured by the 33-day CoV seems to have actually flattened out. My explanation is that even though adoption has increased tremendously, the use of Bitcoin as a savings device has removed enough liquidity from the market to counter the effects of adoption.


Long term:


Short term:


Edit: Updated as of 2023/2/24

When you peep that chart, it's obvious that Bitcoin has had some crazy swings in price over time. But like the author pointed out, things seem to be leveling out and heading towards less volatility overall. And that's super clutch for investors and the crypto market as a whole, because it means the market is growing up and becoming more mature.

But don't get it twisted, my guy. Even though things are heading in the right direction, there are still some bumps in the road that can make investors sweat. The author mentions that even though the long-term volatility may be decreasing, the 33-day CoV has flattened out. Basically, that could be because more people are using Bitcoin like a piggy bank, which is taking liquidity out of the market and countering the effects of more people getting on board with crypto.

Bitcoin and other crypto are like the new kids on the block, so they come with some risk, ya know what I'm saying? But the good news is that the volatility is cooling off, and more and more people are starting to vibe with it. Just make sure you don't get too hyped and keep your eyes on the prize if you're going to invest, aight? Play the long game, my man.

[Bushdark]

Updated 2022-02-24

How high are the probabilties that Bitcoin's volatility during the next main bull market surge will be higher than the last bull market's main surge? Because the next bull market will that be because of a monetary expansion by the Federal Reserve, and a lowering of interest rates, there's some probability that we might see a Bitcoin bull cycle like 2015 - 2017 again. Debatable, BUT possible.

We don't know yet until that time comes to us. The previous bull market was very amazing and that made a lot of investors cash out really well and I think this time may be quite bullish too. Anyhow to comes to us we are going to accept it. We are in the bear and the opportunity we have to is to use the less volatility to accumulate enough tokens to our portfolio. Bitcoin is going to surge higher when the time comes and we don't need to bother ourselves on whether the market is bullish or not, let wait for the next bull run and compared.

[kak uli]

The year-to-year volatility of bitcoin fees seems to be by design. Where if you have experienced separation, then the decline will occur by itself. In fact, we also have to pay attention to how from year to year the supply of bitcoins will be increasingly scarce. It is said that indeed even though the price of bitcoin has decreased, the upside potential in the long term will be reduced and cannot be anticipated for the long term.