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cocoadreamboy (OP)
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December 11, 2020, 11:19:30 AM
Last edit: December 11, 2020, 11:32:10 AM by cocoadreamboy
 #1

On March 11-14 Bitcoin had a major crash, dropping from $8000 to around $5000. The following pictures show exactly what that looked like.

On March 14-16 the major players in crypto (people that drop millions) had a choice. They could spend $10,000,000 on server farms, land, machinery, and personnel in order to setup a miner farm and receive a variable return of bitcoin over the next few years, or they could buy $10,000,000 of bitcoin upfront and not have to deal with all of that work.

Creation cost is the most important metric in crypto.

See the full report here:

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-reports




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Tytanowy Janusz
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December 11, 2020, 02:56:17 PM
Last edit: December 12, 2020, 07:11:11 AM by Tytanowy Janusz
 #2

On March 14-16 the major players in crypto (people that drop millions) had a choice. They could spend $10,000,000 on server farms, land, machinery, and personnel in order to setup a miner farm and receive a variable return of bitcoin over the next few years, or they could buy $10,000,000 of bitcoin upfront and not have to deal with all of that work.

Miner is not market traders/investors. Miners are businessmens that calculate costs and compare it to price. If its profitable to mine, than they mine. They will not jump into buying bitcoin for "$10,000,000" because there is no guarantee of recover(and they are running a business... not speculation). They will rather shout down mining and wait for better income/expenses ratio.

Market investors/traders are not miners. Whale with "$10,000,000" is not a guy who is trading bitcoin and in another day is launching a mining factory in China only because price/cost is to high currently. Because they are speculants without technical skills, access to cheap electricity, mining technology supply chains at a competitive price.
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December 11, 2020, 04:35:08 PM
 #3

Not a very sound report, in this report ETH was giving a "Sell" signal in March whereas everything else was a buy according to A.M. Singer. Conversely, ETH made the highest percentage gains since that day to date;

obviously mining costs cannot be an isolated criterion when making investment decisions, it's one of the many factors influencing price action.

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December 11, 2020, 10:51:50 PM
 #4

Intelligent investors and traders when they go to make an entry in the market based only on buying, what they do is buy very cheap, some enter the market by shorting to buy much cheaper and cause panic. In 2019 it happened, some said that BTC was going to reach $ 2k, the Strong Hands plans will always be to buy low to sell high. Today the massive purchase of BTC has been increasing, many companies believe in BTC even in those who defend gold.

For now, the smartest thing to do is buy Bitcoin while it is below $ 20k.

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cocoadreamboy (OP)
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December 12, 2020, 10:18:15 AM
 #5

Not a very sound report, in this report ETH was giving a "Sell" signal in March whereas everything else was a buy according to A.M. Singer. Conversely, ETH made the highest percentage gains since that day to date;

obviously mining costs cannot be an isolated criterion when making investment decisions, it's one of the many factors influencing price action.

The report is not about fantasy gains based on market manipulation. It is about establishing a stable ground to understand the market and minimize risks. That is financial analysis. Minimizing risk. Thanks for reading the report! Notice how everything else was spot on.

EDIT: Understand the market and minimize risk in a point in TIME.

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December 12, 2020, 12:44:11 PM
 #6

I do not believe the word "smart" applies to crypto currency or the blockchain. There will be always be bearish markets and dumped markets; instead of saying smart people bought bitcoin; it is better worded as investors taking advantage of weak hands to buy low and cheap; the pandemic forced people into desperate need for money; it is not that they were not smart; but most people had no choice than to sell their earnings to survive; while some other peeps decided to invest their earnings into bitcoin.

People take opportunity to invest in bitcoin; has nothing to do with smartness; atleast in my own opinion
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December 12, 2020, 10:27:25 PM
 #7

I do not believe the word "smart" applies to crypto currency or the blockchain. There will be always be bearish markets and dumped markets; instead of saying smart people bought bitcoin; it is better worded as investors taking advantage of weak hands to buy low and cheap; the pandemic forced people into desperate need for money; it is not that they were not smart; but most people had no choice than to sell their earnings to survive; while some other peeps decided to invest their earnings into bitcoin.

People take opportunity to invest in bitcoin; has nothing to do with smartness; atleast in my own opinion
I can consider them as a risk taker too. When the dump occurred before, they are like catching falling knives, for sure a lot of people did not really bought the bottom when it dumped before, some may around at the top of bottom. Honestly I am not fan of buying the dip, why? Because I don't have any idea until when the dip will stop.
Yes, you may right about the weak hands panic sellers, this can be consider as the reasons of the dumps.

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December 13, 2020, 03:53:50 AM
 #8

I can consider them as a risk taker too. When the dump occurred before, they are like catching falling knives, for sure a lot of people did not really bought the bottom when it dumped before, some may around at the top of bottom.
I agree with you some might take the 6k level as dip but its not. So meaning catching the dip is really a risky play on that one. People whom thought of bitcoin will go down probably thought of catching those really high dip but they don't even know too that it could lower than that so this play is really high risk they could get lowered amount that their buy price but probably they knew all along with the help of technical analysis.

Smart or not, they are can be considered fortunate too for buying that sweet dip and ripping the profits now.

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December 13, 2020, 03:23:55 PM
 #9

I understand that creating a system where you would make a solid investment upfront and make profit later on in the long run instead of just once does sound like a good idea to some people, but with that logic you are leaving every possible problem out of calculation and only count on everything to work perfectly.

Just to give an example, let's say you bought 100 machines and you will make less money in the next 1 year this way compared to someone who buys and holds and sells a year later, but you are going to start making more profit after that 1 year ends, sounds good right? What happens when you put into calculation of taxes?

What happens if a machine breaks down? What happens when your building burns down by some mistake? Or there is a flood there? Insurance will cover every single penny you lost AND potential profit? Long story short real life is not easy to calculate like on paper.

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December 13, 2020, 05:29:51 PM
 #10

It was a very similar affair with the stock market - if you had money to spend you could snap up shares in some of the strongest companies in the world. The trick as always is having the capital and courage to be a buyer when everyone else is selling. You also need to pick the right time, because lots of people get scared when buying at 6k and seeing it continue to spiral downwards. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but lots of people showed they were not sure about their assets back in April at peak Covid.

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December 13, 2020, 06:00:22 PM
 #11

This is bitcoin and it's a very volatile asset. Even we saw the bottom last March, they didn't took the chance to buy because they don't want to and they've thought that there could be a next plummet after that price. It is common that we see them buying whenever the uptrend comes and just like where we are lately, they've bought above $17k. But, we will never know if they've bought at the bottom.

With the description of "smart people", I'm thinking of it as the smart money which is coming from the institution and they're getting in. Several news about them buying bitcoin but those companies who did it earlier like Grayscale, they are for sure making the rounds and took every single opportunity that they had before.

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December 15, 2020, 01:35:47 PM
 #12

10million usd for mining btc is serious and even if say that mining of btc is getting difficult , i think they can still expect good returns with that amount of money theyl be using .

sure thing that some of the amounts on that 10m are going for the maintenance cost but that will only be at first days but later on they can recover it and they can make more btc more than what they can get on buying btc for one time only .  while mining , they are saving and can avoid hazards such as panic selling and enables them to see the maximum price of btc in the future
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December 15, 2020, 02:16:53 PM
 #13

I do not believe the word "smart" applies to crypto currency or the blockchain. There will be always be bearish markets and dumped markets; instead of saying smart people bought bitcoin; it is better worded as investors taking advantage of weak hands to buy low and cheap; the pandemic forced people into desperate need for money; it is not that they were not smart; but most people had no choice than to sell their earnings to survive; while some other peeps decided to invest their earnings into bitcoin.

People take opportunity to invest in bitcoin; has nothing to do with smartness; atleast in my own opinion

I think to follow your opinion also. When it is said smartness here in cryptocurrency investment, I think it can not be good because as we are not having control to anything about what will happen next time after we make the order to buy or to sell also. So it is chance or luck as there is bear and bull in cryptocurrency .
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December 15, 2020, 03:40:54 PM
 #14

smart people are someone who is able to read indicators and trading analysis techniques,
of course this is not easy for ordinary people, but there are some indicators that are easy to understand,
or maybe you can follow traders in trading view, there are lots of free signals.

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