2022 will probably be like 2018, but 2021 should be like 2017, since 2020 was like 2016.
I've been roughly thinking along those lines for years but when you put it in those terms, it sounds just
a little too predictable, don't you think?
Breaking $20k basically signals the START of the main part of the bull run, so no worry about 2018.
Yep, but since we still haven't seen a significant weekly/monthly correction, I'm keeping stops tight and not building long term positions right now. I was originally planning on a spike through the old ATH to maybe $21-23K before a major shakeout (a la March 2017) but resistance at the old ATH the last couple weeks had me thinking it could happen earlier. Back to the original plan now.....
Haha for sure. It may very well be too predictable. As I was typing it I was thinking I'm making this seem absurdly predictable haha. But that's just the basic model I'm working with now cuz its the best model we have.
I am wondering though if the market cycle fundamentals may be changing at this point because of institutional money. Institutional money is likely investing long term, not short term or even for one market cycle, but for many years or even decades. So how likely are they to sell in a bear market? If you have millions of bitcoin that would have been sold by panicking retail investors during crashes in earlier cycles, but now are just held long term by institutions who will keep stacking sats for years to come, are we about to see the end of the traditional four year boom / 80% bust cycle?
Another complication to the market cycle coming up could be different retail frenzy behavior. 2017 was the first time a very significant part of the population heard of bitcoin. Surely there are still tons of people that still haven't heard of it or barely heard about it and don't know anything about it (someone I know just asked me a couple weeks ago what bitcoin is after I told them I trade bitcoin to live off of). But 2017/2018 was the first boom/bust cycle that a significant part of the population witnessed. Meaning that lots of people have known about Bitcoin for 3 years now, but their primary perception of it is that it always crashes, as opposed to previous market cycles when people first heard about it during the bubble and jumped in in a frenzy and the amount who ever heard about it was very limited. I'm wondering if a lot of these people won't FOMO into the market in 2021 because they have a negative perception (in opposition to the truth of course haha) of Bitcoin and will just assume it is about to crash any day like it did last time they were hearing a bunch about Bitcoin.
I mean literally I've shown people the long term price chart of Bitcoin, which always goes up and to the right, and they still tell me "it always crashes" and tell me I should sell while I can. We could see less volatility in the market cycle and a more steady drive upward in price with shorter smaller corrections rather than full blown bear markets, but also less insane bubbles. We could see something more akin to the second half of 2019 where the market got a bit overexcited and just needed a 6 month drop before quickly regaining a good bit of that ground and heading back to $10k in the first month of this year. I've been thinking this for a while. Maybe 4 year halving-inspired market cycle continues but it's a bit more stable. No year long bear market and then bottom scrapping market for a bunch of months. The old metrics of sell really high at some point then wait a year and buy back at the bottom around the 200 week MA may not apply anymore. Surely a lot more retail investors are and will jump in next year, but will there be a smaller blow-off top and when they panic sell afterwards will institutions be happy to stack more sats from these panic sold coins at say 40-50% discount, creating a shorter and more stable bear market, rather than the 80% stumbling off a cliff into years of despair that we are used to?
Yeah right now I'm thinking like $22k to $24k and then correction to $16k - $18k. Like maybe a good bit of January is back under $20k, but by February heading back above $20k and then March/April perhaps heading to $30k. That'd be my prediction for the near term.
