Congrats Bitcoin Community. Today is $20k day!

[exstasie]

What % of your stash are you planning to sell?

It might be a brilliant place to sell if we're looking at a 2013 scenario, where we had a mini bubble in April followed by the big blowout in November. The April run topped ~7x above the 2011 ATH, then the market crashed 83%. You'd make a killing on that.

I'm a little worried we're looking at something different though. If it's more like 2017, we could go straight to $300K before the bubble pops. Selling everything at $100K would be extremely painful in that case.

Just something to consider.

I don't think you should set a price to sell for like $50K or $100K or $500K, you should sell based on what the price is doing.

If you look at the previous bull and bear cycles, there is usually a sharp rejection (2011,2013,2017) and there is a bounce to at least 50% from the top and if you sell then, usually its the highest low before starting the bear cycle.

You can even use fibs. Either 50% or 61.8% fibs would work. So you can either guess and sell everything today at $23K or wait for it to hit like $50K, lose half its value going to $25K, and then wait for the 50% bounce and sell everything at $37.5K. Its not $50K but easier than guessing and selling everything at $23K.

So whatever the ATH is, sell 50% from that ATH on the bounce.

Yeah, that was my old mentor's system: wait until the bubble pops and then sell the bounce. It's the only way to hedge against the exponential upside, which can't be predicted beforehand.

That's what I did in 2013 and 2017. You won't hear me claiming I sold the top of every bubble like some people around here!

[thecodebear]

$100k is my main target for selling. Hoping end of next year price is over $100k and I sell just over $100k. Selling won't even start to cross my mind until it gets over $80k.

What % of your stash are you planning to sell?

It might be a brilliant place to sell if we're looking at a 2013 scenario, where we had a mini bubble in April followed by the big blowout in November. The April run topped ~7x above the 2011 ATH, then the market crashed 83%. You'd make a killing on that.

I'm a little worried we're looking at something different though. If it's more like 2017, we could go straight to $300K before the bubble pops. Selling everything at $100K would be extremely painful in that case.

Just something to consider.

Yeah I'm well aware I could sell over $100k and then still see it rise significantly and be kicking myself. But you have to sell somewhere (if you want to play the market cycle game)! I refused to sell at $20k last time (even though a friend of mine who is big into ETH told me on the exact day that Bitcoin peaked that I should sell now haha, I was like "no way, $50k in 2018" haha! I ended up selling some much further down, but also trying to trade during the crash which lost me tens of thousands of $$ of my gains from the bull market since ya know it was crashing haha. Luckily I then bought the bottom en masse perfectly in the $3000s a year later. This time around I plan to just get out and **hopefully** catch near the bottom to buy back long term crypto and then put in my trading stash to start trading before the next bear market ends.

Honestly I don't see this market cycle going much over $100k, I don't see $200k+ as a realistic possibility this market cycle. I of course could be wrong there though. If institutional buyers weren't starting to buy in a significant way already, I figured the trend of bull runs getting much smaller each time would continue, cuz the retail market is only so big. But with this inflow of big money starting already, possibly a year out from a potential cycle peak, i definitely see the possibility that the big $100k target could be significantly passed before a significant bear market ensues.

Things I've got going for me are, even if I just sold everything let's say at like $70k, put it all in the stock market and never touched bitcoin again, I could live off stock dividend earnings the rest of my life. I wouldn't be filthy rich, but I wouldn't ever worry about money again. So if I manage to hold out for $100k and sell everything there or just above, even if it moved to $200k shortly after, I'd be pissed about missing that haha for sure, but I'd still be financially set for life

I have two main worries:
1. What if I get greedy and I'm like nah I'm not selling anything under $100k, and I try to sell or start selling above $100k, and it peaks just under that and I have to wait several years to actually get money out cuz then I don't want to sell while it's crashing.
2. Even if I play it super well, sell just over $100k just before it peaks, but then because the game has changed and institutional buyers are loading up so much continuously that a blow-off top to end the market cycle doesn't result in the standard ~80% crash because big money is buying up all the panicking sellers, so I sell and look to buy in at like $30k or something and it never gets near that low again. This makes me think, sort of in line with your post above, that I should only sell maybe like 50% or something of my bitcoin stash around $100k. That way if it goes wayyy higher I can sell some way higher (the point you are making), but also if the crash is far shallower than we have come to expect I'm not just sitting 100% in cash waiting for the price to keep dropping when it isn't actually going to drop as low as I think and I end up buying back quite high.

Basically though my plan is probably sell a little bit in high five digits, around $85k-95k, just in case it fails to break though $100k. Sell a bunch in the $100k - $120k area probably. But keep some longer in case it goes much higher so I can sell up higher, and alternatively if it doesn't go higher but the crash is much more shallow this time around I would then at least still have some Bitcoin so freak out less wondering if my buys will be hit or not.

[thecodebear]

What % of your stash are you planning to sell?

It might be a brilliant place to sell if we're looking at a 2013 scenario, where we had a mini bubble in April followed by the big blowout in November. The April run topped ~7x above the 2011 ATH, then the market crashed 83%. You'd make a killing on that.

I'm a little worried we're looking at something different though. If it's more like 2017, we could go straight to $300K before the bubble pops. Selling everything at $100K would be extremely painful in that case.

Just something to consider.

I don't think you should set a price to sell for like $50K or $100K or $500K, you should sell based on what the price is doing.

If you look at the previous bull and bear cycles, there is usually a sharp rejection (2011,2013,2017) and there is a bounce to at least 50% from the top and if you sell then, usually its the highest low before starting the bear cycle.

You can even use fibs. Either 50% or 61.8% fibs would work. So you can either guess and sell everything today at $23K or wait for it to hit like $50K, lose half its value going to $25K, and then wait for the 50% bounce and sell everything at $37.5K. Its not $50K but easier than guessing and selling everything at $23K.

So whatever the ATH is, sell 50% from that ATH on the bounce.

Yeah, that was my old mentor's system: wait until the bubble pops and then sell the bounce. It's the only way to hedge against the exponential upside, which can't be predicted beforehand.

That's what I did in 2013 and 2017. You won't hear me claiming I sold the top of every bubble like some people around here!

That's a pretty good strategy. Like after the 2017 peak, at least on Coinbase, I dunno about other exchanges, it dropped all the way to $10,000s, then came back to $16k or $17k a couple times afterwards in the ensuing bounces. Problem still remains you don't know how much it's going to bounce, but yeah it protects from selling wayyyy too early in a bull market. If I still have some coin left after the crash begins I would likely try to do this and hit a bounce.

Of course there is still the problem of maybe you mistake a bull market correction and turnaround for the start of the bear market and initial bounce. My brother in 2017 bought at $2500 or something and on the very first correction, after ~$4800 was hit, he sold at like $3500 (not helped by an in-law in the financial industry who told him to get out now and that Bitcoin is going to zero haha). But he thought that was the big crash and I tried to tell him that was a huge mistake on his part but he had already sold. I certainly can't say if I see Bitcoin dropping 30-40% that I'll know whether or not it's the start of the bear market or just a correction in the ongoing bull market.

In general though I'll be watching what the price is doing, as adaseb said. I expect a blow-off top to end the bull market would be the result of a very significant rise over the course of a month or two, that outstrips the previous big rises. Like if price hits $50k, then corrects to say $30k, then builds back to $50k, then a month or two later has over doubled to $120k, I'd think it's peaking at that point and we're about to see a blow-off top. Whereas if price hits $80k, corrects to say $50k, builds back to $80k and then a month or two later shoots up to $120k, I wouldn't think that's a perilous enough climb to represent a blow-off top so I would think it's going higher still, but if shortly after that it shot up to like $150k I'd think that $80k to $150k rise at those price levels would likely represent an incoming peak and blow-off top.

[qwertyup23]

$20k!

It's either a day or two away from being exactly 3 years from the peak of the last market cycle when Bitcoin came soooo close to hitting $20k (granted the global price I guess did pass $20k but in USD markets it came up just short). And now almost to the day 3 years later it surges past $20k to signal the bull run has truly begun!

It's gonna be a good next year!

I remember way back in 2017 when I first joined the forum, the price of one (1) bitcoin was around $5,000-$5,500 and people were blindly speculating that its price will reach $20,000 in the near future.
Although I admit that I lack the information and knowledge about the latest trends and news about the price of bitcoin, I believed in my guts that its price would sky-rocket in the near future.

Note: If you are one of those people who purchased bitcoin last December 2017 when its price reached a peak of around $19,000, then today is your chance to at least recover your losses and trade-in some of your bitcoins to cash (although I do not recommend this).

[exstasie]

What if I get greedy and I'm like nah I'm not selling anything under $100k, and I try to sell or start selling above $100k, and it peaks just under that and I have to wait several years to actually get money out cuz then I don't want to sell while it's crashing.

There's no right answer.

At least you can take comfort in the fact that you won't be buying anywhere near the top, nor selling anywhere near the bottom. You're way ahead of the curve. So what if you need to wait a few more years to realize ridiculous exponential gains?

This makes me think, sort of in line with your post above, that I should only sell maybe like 50% or something of my bitcoin stash around $100k. That way if it goes wayyy higher I can sell some way higher (the point you are making), but also if the crash is far shallower than we have come to expect I'm not just sitting 100% in cash waiting for the price to keep dropping when it isn't actually going to drop as low as I think and I end up buying back quite high.

Yeah. I'm way too scared to sell all my coins at one price. In fact, I'm scared to ever sell all my coins, period. I only ever sell percentages of my total stash because I need to hedge against the possibility that BTC goes way higher (or doesn't crash as hard) as we expect.

That's a pretty good strategy. Like after the 2017 peak, at least on Coinbase, I dunno about other exchanges, it dropped all the way to $10,000s, then came back to $16k or $17k a couple times afterwards in the ensuing bounces. Problem still remains you don't know how much it's going to bounce, but yeah it protects from selling wayyyy too early in a bull market. If I still have some coin left after the crash begins I would likely try to do this and hit a bounce.

Yep, that 50% crash over a few days in mid-December (reversing all the parabolic gains from earlier in the month), on epic volume, was a strong sign of a bubble pop. If you sold the subsequent ~70% bounce to the $17,000s you'd have made out like a bandit.

We can't know how much it's going to bounce exactly, but I would bet hard on the 61.8%-78.6% Fib retracement area. Very reliable. We call the middle of that range (the 70.5%) the OTE ("Optimal trade entry") level, which is almost exactly where price reversed in January 2018.

[thecodebear]

What if I get greedy and I'm like nah I'm not selling anything under $100k, and I try to sell or start selling above $100k, and it peaks just under that and I have to wait several years to actually get money out cuz then I don't want to sell while it's crashing.

There's no right answer.

At least you can take comfort in the fact that you won't be buying anywhere near the top, nor selling anywhere near the bottom. You're way ahead of the curve. So what if you need to wait a few more years to realize ridiculous exponential gains?

This makes me think, sort of in line with your post above, that I should only sell maybe like 50% or something of my bitcoin stash around $100k. That way if it goes wayyy higher I can sell some way higher (the point you are making), but also if the crash is far shallower than we have come to expect I'm not just sitting 100% in cash waiting for the price to keep dropping when it isn't actually going to drop as low as I think and I end up buying back quite high.

Yeah. I'm way too scared to sell all my coins at one price. In fact, I'm scared to ever sell all my coins, period. I only ever sell percentages of my total stash because I need to hedge against the possibility that BTC goes way higher (or doesn't crash as hard) as we expect.

That's a pretty good strategy. Like after the 2017 peak, at least on Coinbase, I dunno about other exchanges, it dropped all the way to $10,000s, then came back to $16k or $17k a couple times afterwards in the ensuing bounces. Problem still remains you don't know how much it's going to bounce, but yeah it protects from selling wayyyy too early in a bull market. If I still have some coin left after the crash begins I would likely try to do this and hit a bounce.

Yep, that 50% crash over a few days in mid-December (reversing all the parabolic gains from earlier in the month), on epic volume, was a strong sign of a bubble pop. If you sold the subsequent ~70% bounce to the $17,000s you'd have made out like a bandit.

We can't know how much it's going to bounce exactly, but I would bet hard on the 61.8%-78.6% Fib retracement area. Very reliable. We call the middle of that range (the 70.5%) the OTE ("Optimal trade entry") level, which is almost exactly where price reversed in January 2018.

I'll have to look into Fib retracements. I've of course seen people use that for years but never actually researched it myself.

Yeah only selling a % is wise. I have no doubt in $1 million plus bitcoin in the future. I'd like to still have a bunch of Bitcoin when it gets up there. I just ideally want to play the market cycle game well and increase my holdings substantially every few years while also taking out plenty of cash for living so I'm not 100% at the whims of the crypto market haha (I retired early in summer of last year so crypto is my only income source so far in retirement ). I mean if I only sold my ETH and LINK, plus 20% of my BTC at $100k I'd be well set up in terms of savings in the bank plus a giant trading stash to use to stack more long term sats (and ETH) in the next market cycle, while then not worrying about trying to time the top or the bottom. And of course if it goes significantly over $100k I could sell another 20% or whatever. Not bad exstasie...I will think about this when the market starts getting high.

[inanilujimi]

2020 is a very impressive year for bitcoin, starting with all kinds of problems at the beginning of the year starting from not happening what people expected when the bitcoin halving, and the spread of covid 19 which made the market panic, but all of that can be passed very fantastically at the end of the year with get new ATH. debunking all the speculation that bitcoin will never reach ATH which makes haters even hotter. and we see that decentralized adoption is indeed more promising in the future.

[blckhawk]

Another milestone for the hardcore hodlers.
Question.. how long would you be hodling? Rather what specific price range would you prefer before selling?

So, it seems that the 3-year new ATH is really becoming a trend now, after 3 consecutive post halving bullish predictions really happened.
Well, I guess the $30k mark might be the next strong resistance level.

will only sell when it's necessary. we may experience dump as some users who bought it at about 10k level may be tempted to sell their stash, giving them good amt of profit. if more institutional investors will keep on buying BTC, we will really see a good jump in price before the year ends. for sure, there are wealthy individuals who are also secretly stashing their own BTCs. 
some were already losing hope that they will not see the ATH price this year. but here we come, just middle of this month and we already achieved a new ATH.

Regardless of what we have been through this year 2020, this Bitcoin rally is one of the best things that happened (for me at least). We can now see that a lot of institutions and a large individual who are already been venturing into Bitcoin which makes its price skyrocket and I hope this adoption continues. As a matter of fact, even the prestigious person Elon Musk is now getting captivated by Bitcoin and you can see his post on Twitter. The rally we have way back in 2017 is more likely because of the FOMO but now the growth was firm and strong enough thereby I don't think that correction will be that fatal as we had before.

[Sebas.tian]

indeed hitting $ 20k is what most holders are looking forward to,
because if it breaks the potential for Bitcoin to $ 25k it will be hit,
but only $ 24k so far can be achieved.

Possibly this is not the right place Bitcoin will like to have Christmas ($24k), though the drooped or correction was observed and the market bounced back immediately, this shows how strong the market is; compared to last bull-run. The achievement of Bitcoin making it upto $20k was deserved and moving forward will be the rest of the story as institutional investors like Mycrostrategy still buying into Bitcoin at this peak.

[thecodebear]

$100k is my main target for selling. Hoping end of next year price is over $100k and I sell just over $100k. Selling won't even start to cross my mind until it gets over $80k.

What % of your stash are you planning to sell?

It might be a brilliant place to sell if we're looking at a 2013 scenario, where we had a mini bubble in April followed by the big blowout in November. The April run topped ~7x above the 2011 ATH, then the market crashed 83%. You'd make a killing on that.

I'm a little worried we're looking at something different though. If it's more like 2017, we could go straight to $300K before the bubble pops. Selling everything at $100K would be extremely painful in that case.

Just something to consider.

Exstasie,
these thoughts have brought me to a new strategy for my long term crypto. Instead of trying to time the market and sell it all close to the top, assuming these cycles will just stay the same and we'll see an 80% fall over the following year and trying to hit the bottom again the way I did perfectly two years ago, I'm just going for a much longer term strategy. I'll sell about 10% of long term Bitcoin in a year just go get some initial money out and be comfortable financially, and then after that I'll sell a fixed amount each year which would last me another 27 years until I ran out of what I currently own. That way I'm still getting money out (taking profits) on a regular long term basis, but I allow most of my coins to stay in for much higher prices in the future, and I don't have to try to guess the market tops and bottoms which I would likely often get wrong.

Anyway, thanks for leading me to this line of thinking. It really relieved me today, as I realized I don't need to worry anymore about guessing tops and bottoms in the future, and I just keep the majority of my coins very long term.

[Question123]

When bitcoin reached again the 20k dollars everyone will be happy because it means we achieve our goal and we are possible to get a big profit. Many people are wants to see the price of the bitcoin become very high and it's happened and be thankful for that and the price now is 23k dollars which is very nice to see and hoping we take care this value because possible more pump will happen next year.

[snipie]

When bitcoin reached again the 20k dollars everyone will be happy because it means we achieve our goal and we are possible to get a big profit. Many people are wants to see the price of the bitcoin become very high and it's happened and be thankful for that and the price now is 23k dollars which is very nice to see and hoping we take care this value because possible more pump will happen next year.

You mean the bitcoin price is $27k right now? I can't believe what I am seeing right now! Yeah I expected bitcoin to rise even more than this but seeing it and living the moment is just another thing

[Smitty Werben Man Jensen]

When bitcoin reached again the 20k dollars everyone will be happy because it means we achieve our goal and we are possible to get a big profit. Many people are wants to see the price of the bitcoin become very high and it's happened and be thankful for that and the price now is 23k dollars which is very nice to see and hoping we take care this value because possible more pump will happen next year.

You mean the bitcoin price is $27k right now? I can't believe what I am seeing right now! Yeah I expected bitcoin to rise even more than this but seeing it and living the moment is just another thing

Of course seeing the current price of bitcoin makes me quite shocked and this is a great start to be able to reach what it was in 2017,
Seeing the development so far, I am optimistic that bitcoin will continue to rise and we'll see what happens in the future

[shoreno]

When bitcoin reached again the 20k dollars everyone will be happy because it means we achieve our goal and we are possible to get a big profit. Many people are wants to see the price of the bitcoin become very high and it's happened and be thankful for that and the price now is 23k dollars which is very nice to see and hoping we take care this value because possible more pump will happen next year.

You mean the bitcoin price is $27k right now? I can't believe what I am seeing right now! Yeah I expected bitcoin to rise even more than this but seeing it and living the moment is just another thing

Of course seeing the current price of bitcoin makes me quite shocked and this is a great start to be able to reach what it was in 2017,
Seeing the development so far, I am optimistic that bitcoin will continue to rise and we'll see what happens in the future

yes we are all shock seeing btc reach this point , who would thought this will happen in the last month of this year when btc acted verry lethargic right at the start of this year and onwards .

this isnt a start to reach what 2017 have reached but we already passed what 2017 have become , this year is simply better than it or to any past years and since we are here what can we do ? nothing but expecting for more but that should happen by next year and beyond .